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☆ Here’s the deflation breakdown for September 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

However, prices for many physical goods have deflated as supply-and-demand dynamics return to normal following pandemic-era contortions. "Outside of goods prices, I don't think we'll see price cuts," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's. That served to weaken demand, which also pushed down prices, economists said. Outside of supply-demand dynamics, the U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for imported goods, economists said. Energy, food and consumer electronicsOutside of imported goods, consumers may also see a "normalization" of prices in food and energy, Zandi said.

Persons: Jeff Greenberg, Mark Zandi, Zandi, women's outerwear, Sarah House Organizations: Universal, Getty, Finance, Social Security, Vehicles, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics ., U.S . Federal, Fed, U.S, Energy Locations: Wells Fargo, U.S

The international poverty line, which the U.N. uses to measure global poverty, is very low. The international poverty line is valuable because it has succeeded in drawing the world’s attention to the extreme poverty of the world’s very poorest people. But to end poverty in all its forms everywhere, studying this poverty line alone is not enough. One way to see whether this higher poverty line is reasonable is to check whether it aligns with established national poverty assessments. For this, we need an appropriately ambitious poverty line that receives the same attention as the low international poverty line.

Persons: Michail Moatsos, ”, Lant Pritchett, Lyndon Johnson Organizations: The New York Times, Getty Images, United Nations General Assembly, Democratic, Bank, World Bank Locations: adulthood.Today, New York City, Mozambique, Democratic Republic of Congo, ”, Bolivia, Nigeria, India, United States, Denmark, Switzerland, Netherlands, Norway

☆ Opinion | Which Country Will Win the Paris Olympics? Don’t Just Count Medals.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

No nation officially wins the Olympics, but that doesn’t stop journalists and others from trying to keep score by counting gold, silver and bronze medals. The raw medal count overly favors populous nations, while ranking nations by medals per capita overly favors small nations that win one, two or a few medals, possibly by fluke. The problem, as I said, is that it’s not reliable when it comes to the performance of very small nations. For example, rural counties dominate the list of counties with the highest kidney cancer rates, which seems like a good reason to rush funding to rural health authorities. But guess what — rural counties also dominate the list of counties with the lowest kidney cancer rates.

Persons: Pete Pfitzinger Organizations: Tokyo Games Locations: San Marino, Bermuda, Grenada

☆ Reliability of U.S. Economic Data Is in Jeopardy, Study Finds
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials use government data to help determine when to raise or lower interest rates. Congress and the White House use it to decide when to extend jobless benefits or send out stimulus payments. But a new study says the integrity of that data is in increasing jeopardy. But that could soon change, the study warns, citing factors including shrinking budgets, falling survey response rates and the potential for political interference. “We’re not there yet, but if we don’t do something, that threat could become a reality, and in the not-too-distant future.”

Persons: —, ”, Nancy Potok, “ We’re Organizations: Federal, American Statistical Association, George Mason University, Urban Institute Locations: United States

☆ What Makes the U.K. Exit Poll Special
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( Ademola Bello | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

In Britain for the past two decades, there’s been a startlingly good answer just after the polls close, at 10 p.m.That’s when three major broadcasters reveal the results of the national exit poll. The work of a team of statisticians and political scientists who swing into gear a few hours earlier, it has in recent years produced an increasingly accurate picture of the election results before the votes have been counted. In the past five British general elections, the exit poll has predicted how many of the 650 or more parliamentary seats would be claimed by the winning party to within an average of four seats. What’s an exit poll? Since 2005, there’s been a single exit poll at each British general election, paid for by three major broadcasters, the BBC, ITV and Sky.

Persons: who’s, there’s, Let’s, they’ve Organizations: BBC, ITV, Sky Locations: Britain, British

☆ How to Live to 100: An expert warns against taking health advice from centenarians
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-24 | by ( Brady Elliott | University Of Westminster | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

It seems obvious but survivorship bias is everywhere in society. We’re currently studying over 65-year-olds who have maintained unusually high levels of exercise into older age and have maintained excellent health. READ MORE: Why married people live longerWhile we know that their lifelong exercise is associated with their unusually good health into older age, we can’t directly say one causes the other yet. But often, like in survivorship bias, we’re not looking at all the data, and so finding patterns where there are none. Bradley Elliott receives funding from the Physiological Society, the British Society for Research on Ageing, the Altitude Centre, and private philanthropic individuals.

Persons: Bacon, Abraham Wald, Wald, “, ”, That’s, We’re, Bradley Elliott Organizations: CNN, Physiological Society, British Society for Research, Ageing

☆ As MLB changes its records, Josh Gibson, not Ty Cobb, is all-time batting leader
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-28 | by ( Tyler Kepner | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +10 min

And as of Wednesday, Josh Gibson will replace Cobb as the leading hitter in the official records of the game. Thorn estimated that about 75 percent of all Negro Leagues box scores have been documented, and that MLB would update the records as more are uncovered. To some extent, Negro League numbers will always be a work in progress. Barnstorming games, essential as a financial lifeline to Negro League teams, are not included in the statistics. The scheduled games range from 26 (Negro American League, 1942) to 91 (Negro National League I, 1927).

Persons: Abner Doubleday, Tyrus Raymond Cobb, Doubleday, Josh Gibson, Cobb, ”, Larry Lester, “, Ty Cobb, Oscar Charleston, Rogers, Jud Wilson, Ed Delahanty, Buck Leonard, Ted Williams, John Thorn, Thorn, ” Lester, I’ve, Gibson, Chino Smith’s, Hugh Duffy’s, Chino Smith, Hugh Duffy, Charlie Blackwell, Ross Barnes, Willie Keeler, Rogers Hornsby, Tetelo Vargas, Vargas, — Lyman Bostock Sr, Bostock, Ted Williams ’, Sean Forman, Ty, Lester, Gary Ashwill, Kevin Johnson, Seamheads, ” Thorn, Elias, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Oscar, Barry Bonds, Jimmie Foxx, Ed Walsh, Addie Joss, Mordecai Brown, John Ward, Christy Mathewson, Rube Waddell, Walter Johnson, Dave Brown, Tommy Bond, White, Willie Mays, Mays, Bullet Rogan, Turkey Stearnes, ’ ” Lester, Simon Bruty Organizations: Major, Baseball, Negro Leagues, MLB, “, Negro League, Negro, Rogers Hornsby, Turkey Stearnes, Louis Cardinals, San Francisco Giants, Kansas City Monarchs, American, National Leagues, Negro American League, Negro National League I, Boston, New York Cubans, Twins, Red Sox, Sports, Birmingham Black Barons, Graphics, Retrosheet, Oscar Charleston, Barry, Major League Baseball, Birmingham, Giants, Mets Locations: Turkey, Birmingham, Ala, Chicago, Moline, Washington ,

The reversal comes as other high-profile liberal jurisdictions are also getting tougher on drugs and crime. And on Super Tuesday, San Francisco voters approved ballot measures that expand police powers and impose mandatory drug-screening and treatment requirements for welfare recipients. San Francisco had more than 800 motor vehicle thefts per 100,000 residents and – though a decline from 2022 – more than 20,000 car break-ins, according to The San Francisco Standard . In 2019, the year before voters approved the decriminalization measure, Oregon saw 280 accidental opioid overdose deaths, according to state public health authorities . “If you were to ask the public at large I think there’s a perception that it hasn’t worked,” says Hansen.

Persons: ” Kassandra Frederique, “, ” Leo Beletsky, –, Bob Lee, Henry Cuellar, Democrat –, Mayor London Breed, It’s, ” Beletsky, Tina Kotek, George Floyd’s, ”, Ben Hansen, hasn’t, Hansen Organizations: Drug Policy Alliance, Washington , D.C, San Francisco, Northeastern University, D.C, San Francisco Standard, Republican, Democrat, Mayor London, University of Oregon Locations: Oregon, Washington ,, Washington, carjackings, San Francisco, downtown San Francisco, Portland, Portland –, West Coast

☆ The Earth Is Warming, but Is CO2 the Cause?
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Holman W. Jenkins | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Journal Editorial Report: Paul Gigot Interviews Bjorn Lomborg. Images: AP/EPA Composite: Mark KellyIf this column has ever plagiarized itself, it’s by repeating the phrase “evidence of warming is not evidence of what causes warming.” A paper published by the Norwegian government’s statistical agency, written by two of its retired experts, touching on this very subject has called forth so many shrieked accusations of climate apostasy that you know it must be interesting. The authors ask a simple question: Are computerized climate simulations a sufficient basis for attributing observed warming to human CO2? After all, the Earth’s climate has been subject to substantial warming and cooling trends for millennia that remain unexplained and can’t be attributed to fossil fuels. As statisticians, their conclusion: “With the current level of knowledge, it seems impossible to determine how much of the temperature increase is due to emissions of CO2.”

Persons: Paul Gigot, Bjorn Lomborg, Mark Kelly Locations: Norwegian

☆ What Is Going On in Britain’s Economy? The Picture Is Foggy.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Eshe Nelson | More About Eshe Nelson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Tuesday’s data showed that the labor market was continuing to cool, following the same trend as the previous month, with more unemployment and fewer job vacancies. The Bank of England has raised interest rates to their highest level since 2008, and officials have signaled they will remain high well into next year. But the latest labor market release needs to be taken “with a huge pinch of salt,” Philip Shaw, an economist at Investec, wrote in an analyst note. Policymakers at the Bank of England have “lost another important set of figures” to guide them in setting interest rates, he argued. Last month, the statistics office issued a particularly large upward revision to the size of the economy after pandemic lockdowns.

Persons: ” Philip Shaw Organizations: Bank of England, Investec, Statisticians, Labor Force Survey

☆ Here’s a Bill That Might Be Lower Than Last Year’s
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Ryan Dezember | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Households in the Pacific can expect to pay 30% less for gas this winter, on average, according to federal energy statisticians. Photo: David Crane/Zuma PressCheaper heating bills are in the forecast this winter for millions of Americans. Ample stockpiles of natural gas and expectations for a warmer-than-normal winter have forecasters from Wall Street to Washington calling for gas to cost much less than last year, when big utility bills busted household budgets, shocked business owners and helped drive inflation.

Persons: David Crane Organizations: Zuma Locations: Washington

REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The copper market will transition from supply-demand balance in 2023 to a major supply surplus next year, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said after its meeting in Lisbon this week. However, its assessment chimes with a copper market consensus that Chinese demand has surprised to the upside this year. It has trimmed only very slightly its 2024 global usage growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.7%. Operating constraints and smelter maintenance outages in Chile, Indonesia, Sweden and the United States will cap copper production outside of China this year. It's worth noting that the ICSG's most recent monthly bulletin suggests the global copper market notched up a hefty 215,000-metric ton production surplus in the first seven months of 2023.

Persons: Ivan Alvarado, Everyone's, Andy Home, Susan Fenton Organizations: BHP Billiton's Escondida, REUTERS, Study, Shanghai Metal, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Antofagasta, Chile, Lisbon, China, North America, Europe, United States, Indonesia, Sweden, India

That was close, but in the end Congress found a way to avert a government shutdown. “That said, we still look for the gradual deceleration in labor market conditions to continue in the coming months,” Bullard added. Collectively, the three reports will show whether the labor market is slowing – and by just how much. The week will also reveal whether the markets have settled down following the aversion of a government shutdown and concern over rising interest rates in the wake of the Fed’s pause. “The continuation of the disinflation process suggests that the Fed may not need to hike interest rates again this cycle.”

Persons: ” Sam Bullard, “, ” Bullard, Jerome Powell – Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wells, Labor Department, Stock, BCA Research Locations: August’s, payrolls, Washington

☆ Analysis: Investors call 'peak pessimism' for beaten-up UK stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"It feels like we've passed the peak of pessimism about the UK," said Daniel Lockyer, senior fund manager at 7 billion-pound investment and advice group Hawksmoor Investment Management, which increased its exposure to UK companies in August. Consumer stocks are outperforming as investors bet on the UK cost of living crisis becoming less intense. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsLeigh Himsworth, UK fund manager at Fidelity International, said he was "trying to pick off UK retailers we can buy", while it was also "time to pick up some of the (UK) real estate sector." But while noting good economic reasons to call an upturn for UK stocks, fund managers also stressed the need for further steps from policymakers to revive interest in British equities. Premier Miton is lobbying policymakers to introduce a new tax-efficient investment vehicle for UK stocks.

Persons: Toby Melville, we've, Daniel Lockyer, Morningstar, Martin Walker, Walker, Samuel Tombs, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics Leigh Himsworth, Spencer, Neil Birrell, Premier Miton, Miton, Savvas Savouri, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: London Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Inflation, LONDON, Apple, FTSE, Investment Management, Global, Reuters, Bank of England, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Fidelity International, Premier, Fidelity, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain, U.S, COVID, outflows

☆ How the U.S. Economy Is Taming Inflation Without a Recession - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But standard measures of underlying inflation are now under 3 percent and falling. Fancier statistical models maintained by the New York Fed tell the same story, and say that underlying inflation has fallen by half since its peak last year. And given noisy data, there may be a few bad inflation numbers in our future. Nonetheless, the dramatic fall in underlying inflation this year is clearly real, and corroborated by many sources, notably business surveys. Voters, especially Republicans, may believe or claim to believe that inflation is still rising, but while this belief may be politically important, it’s just wrong.

Organizations: New, Fed

☆ After big GDP revision, UK statisticians seek faster data access
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A rainbow is seen over apartments in Wandsworth on the River Thames as UK house prices continue to fall, in London, Britain, August 26, 2023. A senior official at the Office for National Statistics asked Britain's statistics regulator to review the outcome of its upcoming work on how it revised its estimates of the swings in the economy around the coronavirus pandemic period. The ONS collects a lot of data itself through surveys of businesses and households, but relies on government departments and other agencies for certain numbers. On Friday, revised data from the ONS showed that Britain's economy performed more strongly than previously thought in its recovery from the pandemic and was ahead of other big European countries at the end of 2021 rather than lagging behind them. Reporting by William Schomberg; editing by David MillikenOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Kevin Coombs, Michael Keoghan, William Schomberg, David Milliken Organizations: REUTERS, Office, National Statistics, Statistics, Thomson Locations: Wandsworth, London, Britain

☆ Are U.S. seniors among the developed world's poorest? It depends on your point of view
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-05 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Peopleimages | E+ | Getty ImagesIs old-age income poverty too high? Consider this thought exercise: What is a tolerable poverty rate among American seniors? This ranks the U.S. behind 30 other countries in the 38-member bloc, which collectively has an average poverty rate of 13.1%. That old-age income poverty rate has declined by over two-thirds in the past five decades, according to the Congressional Research Service. Researchers seem to agree that a looming Social Security funding shortfall is perhaps the most pressing issue facing U.S. seniors.

Persons: Andrew Reilly, Reilly, Mitchell, David Blanchett, —, Zhe Li, Joseph Dalaker, hurtling, Olivia Mitchell, Blanchett Organizations: Organization for Economic Co, U.S, Employment, Labour, Social Affairs, Social Security, OECD, Security, Census, Congressional Research Service, CRS, Prudential Financial, Social, Insurance Trust Fund, Olivia Mitchell University of Pennsylvania, Pension Research, Social Security Administration Locations: U.S, Mexico, that's, PGIM, American

☆ Rising the ranks at Citadel Securities: How this 31-year-old rose from intern to head of foreign exchange in 5 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Emmalyse Brownstein | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

At 31, Soeren Kuenzel runs Citadel Securities' FX team, overseeing hundreds of billions in trades. Just ask Soeren Kuenzel, the head of foreign-exchange trading at Citadel Securities who's now responsible for billions in complicated currency trades at just 31 years old. It was sponsored by Citadel, the hedge-fund firm led by the billionaire Ken Griffin, alongside the market maker Citadel Securities. Citadel Securities, launched by Griffin in 2002, is one of the biggest trading houses matching sellers and buyers of stocks, bonds, and currencies across the globe. He finished his doctorate at Berkeley in 2019 and began working that fall as a quant researcher at Citadel Securities full time in Chicago.

Persons: Soeren, Soeren Kuenzel, Kuenzel, Ken Griffin, Griffin, Fang Wu, Wu, It's, Yale's, I've, he's, that's, Alex Morell Organizations: Citadel Securities, FX, University of California, Facebook, Apple, Citadel, New York Stock Exchange, Chicago, Berkeley, Yale's men's, Cape, Cape Florida Lighthouse Locations: Berkeley, Miami, Europe, Chicago, Germany, Cape Florida

☆ Bats carry killer viruses. Scientists suggest ways to cope.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

“I have to think on a landscape scale.”Research in Australia also is deepening scientists’ understanding of bats. Flying foxes travel long distances in search of food, dispensing seeds and pollinating trees along the way. As deforestation destroyed habitats and further disrupted the food supply, the bats have increasingly formed year-round roosts near people, they noticed. Native gums flowering around Gympie lured the flying foxes away from horse paddocks and more urban areas. In fact, the most dangerous areas for spillover aren’t rare, pristine habitats absent of humans, scientists say.

☆ Bat lands worldwide are besieged, seeding risk of a new pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

This collision – bats and humans competing for resources on territory long the domain of the bats – could trigger the next pandemic. As people destroy bat habitats worldwide, they are unwittingly helping bat-borne viruses mutate, multiply, and infect other species, including homo sapiens. For millennia, bat viruses lurked across the forests of West Africa and in other undisturbed parts of the world but posed little threat to humanity. They’re potent proliferators: Some roost tightly together and in close quarters with other bat species. Each of the bat viruses analyzed by Reuters has epidemic potential, according to the World Health Organization.

☆ How Reuters pinpointed bat-virus risk zones worldwide
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +12 min

Areas where conditions are similar are more prone to spillover, scientists say. The Reuters analysis, which assessed spillover risk through 2020, has proven to have some predictive power. Similar statistical models are used widely to analyze data in ecology, and researchers use them to understand spillover risk. More than one of every five people on the planet is living in areas where the risk is highest for spillover. Using epidemic modeling software called GLEAMviz, the news agency simulated a worldwide pandemic originating from the spillover of a theoretical novel virus.

Cromwell’s rule plays an important formal role in Bayesian statistics but it is important for any exercise in prediction and analysis. SOFT LANDING CONDITIONSI have written elsewhere the global economy is on course for a significant mid-cycle slowdown if not a cycle-ending recession. Multiple conditions would need to be satisfied, and none violated, for a soft landing to occur. The soft landing scenario is so tricky to pull off and therefore so improbable it has been called “immaculate disinflation” by some forecasters. Nevertheless, the probability of a soft landing is far from zero.

☆ Profit margin growth 'unsustainable,' ECB's Centeno says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Evidence from Portugal suggests some companies in the euro zone have been able to increase profit margins at a rate that risks hampering efforts to bring inflation down, Portuguese central bank governor Mario Centeno said on Wednesday. "The numbers for Portugal are very clear: profit margins increased quite a bit in 2022," Centeno, who sits on the European Central Bank's rate-setting council, told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. "That is not sustainable, not only because that will have an impact on prices, but also on demand. However, Centeno said it was clear that company margin increases had as much potential as wage gains to force monetary policy to react if they were fueling inflationary pressures. "1% point of extra margins or 1% of wages will prevent inflation from coming down.

☆ Profit margin growth 'unsustainable' -ECB's Centeno
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

☆ LeBron becomes second player to score 38,000 points
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Jan 15 (Reuters) - LeBron James became only the second player in NBA history to score 38,000 career points on Sunday as he inches closer to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's all-time record. loadingJames eventually finished with 35 points but it was a bittersweet night as the Lakers lost 113-112. The 38-year-old forward, who started his career with the Cleveland Cavaliers and also played for the Miami Heat, has averaged 29 points per game this season. A four-times champion and four-times MVP, James is on course to break former Lakers center Abdul-Jabbar's 34-year-old record of 38,387 points in the coming weeks. James is now 363 points behind Abdul-Jabbar and based on his scoring average, NBA statisticians expect him to break the record before the All-Star break next month.

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