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According to major forecasts, it looks like it’s going to be an above-average hurricane season. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. In 2020, the May forecast was for 13 to 19 named storms, but an updated forecast for August was even higher, with 19 to 25 named storms. This region, from West Africa to Central America, is hotter this year than it was before the start of last year’s hurricane season, which produced 20 named storms. The possibility of a La Niña, combined with record sea surface temperatures this hurricane season, is expected to create a robust environment this year for storms to form and intensify.
Persons: Judson Jones, Rick Spinrad, Idalia, Zack Wittman, Alberto, William, Damon Winter, Brian McNoldy, , Phil Klotzbach, Benjamin Kirtman, Waters, Niño, El, Michelle L’Heureux Organizations: The New York Times, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, Hurricane Idalia, National Weather Service, New York Times NOAA, University of Miami, Colorado State University, El Locations: Florida’s Big Bend, America, Fort Myers Beach, Fla, West Africa, Central America, El
According to major forecasts, it looks like it’s going to be an above-average hurricane season. Those could include four to seven major hurricanes — Category 3 or higher — with winds of at least 111 m.p.h. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. In 2020, the May forecast was for 13 to 19 named storms, but an updated forecast for August was even higher, with 19 to 25 named storms. This region, from West Africa to Central America, is hotter this year than it was before the start of last year’s hurricane season, which produced 20 named storms.
Persons: Judson Jones, Rick Spinrad, Idalia, Zack Wittman, Alberto, William, Damon Winter, Brian McNoldy, , Phil Klotzbach, Benjamin Kirtman, Waters, Niño, El, Michelle L’Heureux Organizations: The New York Times, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, Hurricane Idalia, National Weather Service, New York Times NOAA, University of Miami, Colorado State University, El Locations: Florida’s Big Bend, America, Fort Myers Beach, Fla, West Africa, Central America, El
The springs were exposed by retreating glaciers in Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic Ocean. Scientists think the methane in the Svalbard springs comes from somewhere else. The researchers estimate springs across the archipelago alone could represent about 2,000 tonnes of methane emissions a year. Scientists have found springs full of methane bubbling near retreating glaciers in Svalbard. Kleber suspects these methane emissions are only one of several "invisible feedback loops that we're just not aware of."
Persons: , hasn't, Gabrielle Kleber, Kleber, Andy Hodson, ", Rick Spinrad Organizations: Service, University of Cambridge, Nature Geoscience, International Energy Agency, NOAA Locations: Svalbard, Norwegian, Alaska, Norway
Record high levels of carbon pollution in the atmosphere and record low levels of Antarctic ice. Several all-time heat records were also broken earlier this month in Siberia, as temperatures shot up above 100 degrees Fahrenheit. In 2022, the world’s oceans broke heat records for the fourth year in a row. In late February, Antarctic sea ice reached its lowest extent since records began in the 1970s, at 691,000 square miles. The decline in sea ice also poses severe harm to the continent’s species, including penguins who rely on sea ice for feeding and hatching eggs.
Persons: Brian McNoldy, vZ9eKEs22b, we’re, ” Jennifer Marlon, “ We’ve, – we’ve, Ted Scambos, “ We’re, Phil Reid, El, Climatologist Maximiliano Herrera, , El Niño, ” Herrera, ” Scambos, Reid, Scambos, there’s, Rick Spinrad, Organizations: CNN, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Yale School of, University of Colorado -, National Weather Service, Australian, of Meteorology, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, Atlantic, NOAA, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, Industrial Locations: University of Colorado - Boulder, Canada, United States, Siberia, Central America, Texas, Louisiana, Puerto Rico, Asia, China, El, California, Pacific, San Diego
64° F June 11, 2023 62° 2022 60° 1979-2021 58° Global Daily Average Air Temperatures 56° 54° 52° 50° Jan. 1 Mar. “We’re putting heat into the system — through climate change, through the greenhouse effect — and that heat is going to manifest. NOAA last month said there was a 40 percent chance that this year’s hurricane season would be near normal. But it also assigned 30 percent probabilities to the season’s being above or below normal. There’s another factor that could also have made the world hotter recently, though it’s not clear how much.
Persons: ” Rick Spinrad, , Spinrad, El Niño, it’s, Daniel L, Swain, Dr, Organizations: University of Maine, National Centers for, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, University of California Locations: Canada, United States, Siberia, Antarctica, El, Pacific, Tonga, Los Angeles
Atmospheric CO2 now 50% higher than pre-industrial level -NOAA
  + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Measurements are taken in May because it is the month when CO2 peaks in the Northern Hemisphere. The outpost on Mauna Loa has measured atmospheric CO2 since 1958, when the level was less than 320 ppm, and shown a steady increase since then in what NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad called "a direct result of human activity." NOAA began collaborating with Scripps on the measurements in 1974. This year's measurements were taken from a temporary site because lava flows cut off access to the Mauna Loa observatory in November 2022, NOAA said. (This story has been corrected to change NOAA's previously reported figure as 424 ppm and not 423 ppm, in paragraph 2.
Persons: Rick Spinrad, David Keeling, Keeling's, geochemist Ralph Keeling, Keeling, Daniel Trotta, Marguerita Choy Organizations: U.S . National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Scripps, Northern Hemisphere, NOAA, Thomson Locations: Mauna Loa, Loa
"Climate change is driving both wet and dry extremes," NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement. "We're not calling for catastrophic and major widespread flooding," said Ed Clark, director of NOAA's National Water Center. California's winter was marked by a punishing succession of so-called atmospheric river storms, the product of vast, dense airborne currents of water vapor funneled in from the tropical Pacific. The storms have unleashed widespread flooding, mudslides, power outages, fallen trees, surf damage, road wash-outs and evacuations since late December. "Winter precipitation, combined with recent storms, wiped out exceptional and extreme drought in California for the first time since 2020, and is expected to further improve drought conditions this spring," NOAA said.
That was the tweet from Dustin Mulvaney, a resident of Santa Cruz, California. Then a series of atmospheric rivers inundated the region with heavy rainfall that poured down the Santa Cruz Mountains and overflowed rivers. The pattern has the fingerprints of the climate crisis all over it. In the last two years, Santa Cruz experienced prolonged drought and a major wildfire in 2020 that burned tens of thousands of acres. At least 17 people have died, including one in Santa Cruz, Gov.
The United States experienced 18 extreme weather events last year that each caused at least $1 billion in damages, according to a report released Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Weather and climate disasters across the country resulted in more than $165 billion in damages in 2022, making it the third-costliest year on record, NOAA officials said. Despite a slow start to last year's hurricane season, three storms resulted in at least $1 billion in damages: Hurricane Fiona, Hurricane Ian and Hurricane Nicole. Hurricane Ian, which slammed into southwestern Florida in late September and caused widespread destruction, resulted in nearly $113 billion in damages, the report found. NOAA’s findings offer a glimpse of the major toll that extreme weather events are already having and the country’s vulnerability to climate disasters in the future.
NASA is studying "thermokarsts" in Alaska, lakes that appear as permafrost there thaws. Walter Anthony has been working with NASA's ABoVE project to study Big Trail lake's effect on climate change. "As they decompose it, they are belching out methane gas," she said. Walter Antony is seen in a kayak on Big Trail lake in Alaska. It's only the newer lakes, like Big Trail, which appeared less than 50 years ago, that give off high levels of the gas.
CNN —The official start to hurricane season is just a week away and forecasters are predicting another busy one. The CSU forecast called for 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major storms. However, during the announcement, NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad recognized that the current hurricane cycle for the Atlantic is a busy one. “If you go back two years, the 2020 hurricane season broke records across the board and it’s the most active season on record with 30 named storms,” said Spinrad. “Yes, the loop current does look like 2005,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season outlook forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
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