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☆ Inflation cooled even further last month, likely solidifying more rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

CNN —Inflation has slowed further and is just a hair’s breadth from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed prices rose 2.1% for the year ended in September, a slowdown from 2.3% in August, according to Commerce Department data released Thursday. The annual increase, which marks a fresh three-and-a-half-year low, fell right in line with what economists were expecting, according to FactSet consensus estimates. However, falling gas prices helped to keep the lid on any gains. Many states are seeing gas prices below $3 a gallon, a trend that’s expected to continue in the coming weeks as global supply eclipses demand.

Persons: ” Olu Sonola Organizations: CNN, Inflation, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Fitch

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rebound as inflation data reinforces Fed rate-cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks rose Friday morning, regaining momentum after three days of losses. Instead, investors indicated 87.7% odds of a 25-basis point cut, and 11.9% odds of a 50-basis point cut. This week, creeping doubt in large-cap tech stocks rally spurred investors to rotate out of the sector, pulling both indexes down 3.67% and 2.6% through the past week, respectively.

Persons: —, Fitch, Olu Sonola Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, PCE, Federal, Treasury Locations: Here's

☆ Immigration has helped the hot US economy and labor market, but there's a risk of oversupply, Fitch says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Foreign-born workers are leading the increase in the US labor force, Fitch Ratings said. But a simple explanation could lie in US immigration trends, as a surge of foreign-born workers is propelling labor expansion, Fitch Ratings reported on Thursday. "The foreign-born labor participation rate is 66%, more than the native-born participation rate of 62%." AdvertisementBut while higher immigration flows should keep labor momentum going through this year, Fitch also cautioned that it risks an oversupply. Still, migrants' contribution to labor has significantly boosted economic growth, Fitch said, a point shared by previous research.

Persons: Fitch, —, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Olu Sonola Organizations: Service, Fitch, Wall Street, JPMorgan Locations: U.S, hirings

☆ Red states are big winners of Biden’s landmark laws
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Fitch defined red states as those that voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020 by more than three percentage points. “The reality is manufacturing was migrating to those states even before the CHIPS Act and the IRA. Relative to the size of their state economies, Arizona, Idaho and West Virginia are the biggest winners from the IRA and CHIPS Act investments, according to Fitch. New York leads blue state winnersNone of this is to say blue states aren’t benefiting from the IRA and the CHIPS Act. Micron cited the tax credits in the CHIPS Act as well as incentives provided by New York state aimed at luring semiconductor companies.

Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Fitch, Donald Trump, Olu Sonola, Sonola, ‘, ” Natalie Quillian, “, ”, Lauren Boebert, Quillian Organizations: New, New York CNN, Redwood Materials, Redwood, America’s, IRA, Republican, CNN, Fitch, Trump, Micron, White House, White, Lonestar, Samsung, Intel, IBM, Central, “, CS, Colorado Republican Locations: New York, South Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada , North Carolina , Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Idaho, Boise, America, Texas, Taylor , Texas, Austin, Russia, Canada, Arizona , Idaho, West Virginia, Chandler , Arizona, “ Arizona, . New York, Hudson Valley, Central New York, “ New York, Colorado, Pueblo , Colorado

☆ Surging rents lift US consumer prices; underlying inflation grinding lower
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The so-called core CPI was also lifted by a 3.7% rise in the cost of lodging away from home, which ended three straight monthly declines. The core CPI gained 4.1% on a year-on-year basis in September, the smallest rise since September 2021, after advancing 4.3% in August. Over the last three months, the core CPI increased 3.1%. Still-strong demand in the economy, marked by labor market tightness, which is driving core services inflation excluding rents, imply that the higher rates could last for some time. Reuters GraphicsThere is no sign yet that the United Auto Workers (UAW)strike, now in its fourth week, is having a major impact on the labor market.

Persons: Olu Sonola, Stephen Juneau, Bing Guan, Seema Shah, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Higher U.S, Treasury, Fitch, CPI, Reuters, Bank of America Securities, Mobil, REUTERS, Fed, Financial, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Beverly Boulevard, West Hollywood , California

That changed in September when U.S. central bank officials themselves sensed that progress on housing inflation might have stalled. Data released on Thursday confirmed a jump in shelter prices that, for a month at least, bucked the trend. "The uptick in housing inflation this month was the key surprise. Housing inflation will need to decline sharply over the coming months for us to see inflation near 2%." In the list of risks for inflation to remain elevated, Fed officials in September pointed to "the effects of a strong housing market."

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Olu Sonola, aren't, Jerome Powell, Kathy Bostjancic, disinflation Powell, Andrew Hunter, CoreLogic, Hunter, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Fitch, Fed, Nationwide, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Capital Economics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S

☆ US consumer prices rise on surge in rents; underlying inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gasoline prices rose 2.1% after accelerating 10.6% in August. Year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Reuters GraphicsExcluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3%, matching August's gain. Still-strong demand in the economy, marked by labor market resilience, suggests borrowing costs could remain elevated for some time. Reuters GraphicsThere is no sign yet that the United Auto Workers (UAW)strike, now in its fourth week, is having a major impact on the labor market.

Persons: Bing Guan, Olu Sonola, Seema Shah, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Mobil, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Higher U.S, Treasury, Fitch, CPI, Reuters, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Beverly Boulevard, West Hollywood , California, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York

☆ Student loan payments are about to drain $8 billion a month from consumers, and spending will start contracting early next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The resumption of student loan repayments will amount to $5.5 billion-$8.2 billion per month, Fitch said. Fitch also predicted student loan delinquency rates will quickly reach pre-pandemic levels or above. AdvertisementAdvertisementStudent loan payments resume next month, draining billions of dollars a month from consumers, who will start pulling back sharply on spending, Fitch Ratings forecast in a Wednesday report. "Debt service is expected to trend higher in the coming quarters as student loan payments resume and higher financing costs take hold for much longer." AdvertisementAdvertisementIn early August, US credit card debt topped $1 trillion for the first time — though credit spending growth has begun slowing, it has maintained levels that are about double pre-pandemic averages.

Persons: Fitch, —, Biden, Olu Sonola Organizations: Service, Fitch, Federal

The Fed expects to get inflation back to its 2% target in 2026, which is later than some officials had thought possible. Financial markets had widely expected that the Fed would leave rates unchanged. Ahead of the Fed meeting, investors had been banking on significant Fed rate cuts next year, an expectation clouded by the projections that show 10 of 19 officials see the policy rate remaining above 5% through next year. Federal funds futures showed traders had downgraded their estimates of Fed rate cuts ahead. The Fed statement was approved unanimously after a two-day meeting that marked new Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's debut on the central bank policymaking stage.

Persons: Jerome Powell, We're, Bond, Stocks, Chris Wattie, I've, Powell, Olu Sonola, Omair Sharif, Adriana Kugler's, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Market, Reuters Graphics, Reserve, REUTERS, Fed, Reuters, Fitch, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Washington , DC

☆ Here’s where the jobs are for May 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Government added 56,000 jobs last month, higher than the average monthly gain of 42,000 over the prior 12 months. The U.S. payrolls report for May blew past expectations , supported by strong jobs gains in the professional and business services sector — as well as a jump in government employment. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in May against the estimate for 3.5%. Olu Sonola, head of U.S. regional economics at Fitch Ratings, said the jobs report is a mixed bag. "However, the 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate is the highest monthly increase since April 2020."

Persons: Dow Jones, Olu Sonola Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Dow, Fitch Locations: U.S

☆ Is the US in a recession? Not yet, but experts think we could be in one soon.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, told CNBC that there could be a "mild recession induced by the Fed." Here's what experts are saying about a recession in 2023Some Wall Street experts and economists think the US could avoid a recession next year, and that even if one comes, it will likely not be as severe as the downturns after the 2008 financial crisis and the early Covid pandemic. As Insider's Brian Evans reported, economists at Bank of America think there will be a mild recession too. While some think a recession is on the horizon, there's a chance that the US may not enter one at all. "I think we would need to see a significant deterioration in the labor market for me to think we're in a recession, and we have not seen any significant deterioration yet," Bunker said.

"There's a reasonable chance of a recession in the U.S., but it's not certain," Solomon said on Tuesday after the company released third-quarter earnings. "Fitch expects the U.S. economy to enter genuine recession territory — albeit relatively mild by historical standards — in 2Q23." David Solomon, Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs, speaks at the 2022 Milken Institute Global Conference, in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 2, 2022. "Private equity activity gets reset at a time like this because values have to come down because financing costs have gone up," he said. "So there's been less private equity activity right now."

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