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The 2024 White House race remains too close to call, but Vice President Kamala Harris' momentum is evident when you look just a little past the horse race. Earlier this week, Harris' favorability emerged above water for the first time since shortly after President Joe Biden took office. Soltis Anderson discussed a poll that the interest group commissioned, which found Harris has expanded Biden's once-meager lead over women voters aged 50 and over. Unlike Clinton, Walsh pointed out Harris hasn't spent decades in the spotlight and isn't faced with assuaging voters' fears of a potential political dynasty. Harris' favorability was up slightly in both Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Harris, favorability, Joe Biden, She's, Kristen Soltis Anderson, Soltis Anderson, Debbie Walsh, Tim Malloy, Likability, Barack Obama's, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump's, Nikki Haley, Gabe Fleisher, reexamined, Trump, Nate Silver's, Walsh, There's, Clinton, Harris hasn't, isn't, Clinton's favorability, Obama's, Mark Robinson, Robinson, Sen, JD Vance, he's, Malloy Organizations: Service, AARP, Business, Center for American Women, Politics, Quinnipiac University Poll, Democratic, Research, Pew Research, State, Rutgers University, Gov, CNN, Republicans, Trump Tower, Trump Locations: North Carolina, Nazi, Nebraska, FiveThirtyEight's, Trump, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin
CNN —Far be it from anyone to identify a defined strategy in the cat memes that have overtaken the American political conversation in a pivotal election year. Never mind the state’s Republican governor, who also counseled against a campaign visit, called out state troopers to city schools to ease concern about scores of bomb threats. Intentional or not, the insult cued a new round of stories about how the Trump campaign doesn’t seem to mind turning off women voters. Women voters have shifted away from Trump since Harris entered the race, according to polls. “Every time I do a focus group with swing voters, they bring up JD Vance talking about childless cat ladies.
Persons: , Donald Trump’s, Ramaswamy, Vivek Ramaswamy, Roberto Schmidt, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Kamala Harris, Sanders, Harris, ” Harris, Kristen Soltis Anderson, ” That’s, Harris ”, Anderson, Trump, Sen, JD Vance, Harry Enten, we’ve, Enten, Nicky Jam, He’s, Taylor Swift’s, Billie Eilish’s, Lance Trover, Doug Burgum, Trover, “ I’m, ” Trover, it’s, ” Anderson, Vance, Sarah Longwell, CNN’s Jake Tapper, “ I’ve, ” Longwell Organizations: CNN, Republican, he’d, AFP, Getty, Arkansas Gov, Trump, New York Times, Siena College, Puerto, Pennsylvania doesn’t, North Dakota Gov, The New York Times, Trump Republican Locations: Ohio, Springfield, Springfield , Ohio, Michigan, Puerto Rican, Las Vegas, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Whatever other obstacles Mr. Trump and his campaign have faced, more voters have tended to trust him with the economy than the Biden-Harris ticket. According to at least one poll, though, voters’ attitudes may have changed. In a new survey conducted for The Financial Times, by a single point, Vice President Kamala Harris edges out Mr. Trump on the question of who voters trust more to handle the economy. But Ms. Harris’s slight edge on the economy in that Financial Times poll exists in the context of the numbers that came before it. To see the shift from Mr. Trump winning on the top issue to it being a jump ball will be an eye-opening finding if it is replicated in other polls.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Harris, Kamala Harris Organizations: Biden, The Financial, White, Financial
Right out of the gate comes Tim Saler, a data consultant for Mr. Trump’s campaign, who takes issue with the latest CBS News/YouGov poll showing Ms. Harris ahead of Mr. Trump by one point nationally and running very close to Mr. Trump in the key battleground states. Without this manipulation, President Trump would be maintaining a 51-49 lead in their Aug. 4 survey. As a result, we adjust our data to align with known benchmarks, a process known as weighting. Weighting a survey by factors like age and race is quite standard and is a basic matter of good research practice. Pollsters have robust and friendly debates over the best ways to keep a poll from over- or under-sampling people of a certain party.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Tim Saler, Trump’s, Harris, Trump, Vance, Saler, let’s, , Brian Hughes Organizations: CBS, Trump, New York Times, Siena College
Time: The idea of Ms. Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee will take a few days to ripple through the public consciousness. Now, one party has answered the call, and one question becomes: Is Ms. Harris that longed-for alternative, or is she seen as simply a continuation of the much-maligned Biden candidacy? Ms. Harris will drive abortion messaging more sharply. Against Ms. Harris, Republicans could fall into the “very online” trap. It’s hard to overstate the extent to which Republicans view Ms. Harris as unappealing.
Persons: There’s, Biden, Kamala Harris, I’m, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Trump’s, Harris, , they’ll, Mr, Will, ” Ms, Trump, Roe, Wade Organizations: Republican National Convention, Democratic, pollsters, Mr, Harris Voters, Trump
California gets 54 electoral votes (it has two senators and 52 congressional districts). The winner is the candidate who gets 270 or more electoral votes. If no candidate gets to 270 electoral votes, the House of Representatives picks the winner from among the candidates who got electoral votes. The campaigns will focus more attention on the fewer than one-third of all electoral votes they consider to be up for grabs or winnable by either party. Two states, Maine and Nebraska, apportion some of their electoral votes by congressional district rather than giving all of them to the state winner.
Persons: CNN —, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, , Kristen Soltis Anderson, , Biden, Trump, Hillary Clinton Organizations: CNN, Republican, Republican National Convention, House, Electoral, District of Columbia, Wisconsin –, Trump, Constitution, Democrats Locations: . Washington, California, . Texas, Florida, New York, Maine, – Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Constitution . North Carolina , Colorado, Nebraska
In this special feature, Times Opinion writers rate the evening on a scale of 0 to 10: 0 means the night was a disaster for Donald Trump; 10 means it could lead to a big polling bump. Here’s what our columnists and contributors thought of the event, which culminated in Trump’s acceptance speech. Best MomentKristen Soltis Anderson, contributing Opinion writer Donald Trump gave a compelling and moving description of what it was like to be under fire and pledged to represent all of America, not just half of America. David Brooks, Times columnist The first 20 minutes of the Trump speech. Jane Coaston, contributing Opinion writer Hulk Hogan’s speech was his best performance since he beat Macho Man Randy Savage at WrestleMania V.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kristen Soltis Anderson, David Brooks, Trump, he’d, Jane Coaston, Hulk, Macho, Randy Savage Organizations: Republican National Convention Locations: America
In this special feature, Times Opinion writers rate the evening on a scale of 0 to 10: 0 means the night was a disaster for Donald Trump; 10 means it could lead to a big polling bump. Best MomentKristen Soltis Anderson, contributing Opinion writer How can you not feel the heartbreak of the Gold Star families? A powerful reminder of the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal, as well as President Biden’s incorrect assertion during the debate that no service members died overseas on his watch. Most important, a powerful reminder of the price of freedom. Vance, and the veterans and families of soldiers killed or taken captive — they were the most effective and affecting speakers.
Persons: Donald Trump, Peter Navarro, Kimberly Guilfoyle, Vance, Kristen Soltis Anderson, Biden’s, Charles M, Usha Vance, J.D Organizations: Republican National Convention, Gold Star Locations: Afghanistan, Blow
Welcome to Opinion’s commentary for Night 2 of the Republican National Convention. In this special feature, Times Opinion writers rate the evening on a scale of 0 to 10: 0 means the night was a disaster for Donald Trump; 10 means it could lead to a big polling bump. Here’s what our columnists and contributors thought of the event, which included speeches from Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy and Elise Stefanik. Best MomentKristen Soltis Anderson, contributing Opinion writer I’d be remiss not to mention Gov. But she rewrote it, and what she delivered made a positive, personal case for Donald Trump.
Persons: Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Elise Stefanik, Kristen Soltis Anderson, I’d, Jim Justice’s, Lara Trump’s, Trump Organizations: Republican National Convention, Gov
As Republicans head into the second day of their convention in Milwaukee, they are energized. Serious concerns about President Biden’s electoral hopes loomed even before the events of the weekend transpired. Mr. Biden’s advanced age and attendant campaign trail challenges remain. And now the iconic images of a bloodied Mr. Trump, fist in the air, seem to have raised Democrats’ concerns that they have no good options, only a slow march toward defeat. At the same time, with so many of Mr. Biden’s voters fiercely opposed to Mr. Trump returning to power, I suggested that we might actually not see polls move too much.
Persons: Donald Trump —, Trump, Biden’s, there’s, Biden “, Organizations: Biden, Trump, Mr Locations: Milwaukee, Pennsylvania
While President Biden enjoys strong support from Black voters, Donald Trump has chipped away at that crucial Democratic base: He won 12 percent of Black voters in the 2020 election and did especially well with Black men, winning 19 percent. Some pollsters think Mr. Trump may do even better in November. This focus group was held last week, before the assassination attempt on Mr. Trump. But they also said that some of their friends and relatives sharply disagreed with them about Mr. Trump. For these men, Mr. Trump is not just the more appealing choice but also the sole realistic option, given “how off track the president is mentally,” as one participant said.
Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, , Rashad, Mr Organizations: Black, Democratic, Democratic Party Locations: Pennsylvania
The Southern Baptist Convention last month condemned in vitro fertilization, adding to the debate in many conservative and religious circles about the process. In this audio essay, the contributing Opinion writer Kristen Soltis Anderson shares her experience undergoing I.V.F. and argues that families should be able to use it to bring children into the world. “I’m a person of faith and I believe children are miraculous blessings,” she says. “I’m also of the mind that science is one way that miracles are made possible.”(A full transcript of this audio essay will be available within 24 hours of publication in the audio player above.)
Persons: Kristen Soltis Anderson, , “ I’m Organizations: Southern Baptist Convention
Opinion | When Oprah Loved Trump
  + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( Kristen Soltis Anderson | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
There is one question about Donald Trump that I’m asked above all others, as someone whose professional life is devoted to studying voter behavior and, in particular, what drives Republicans. My answer starts with a story about how Oprah Winfrey once saw Mr. Trump. Ms. Winfrey elevated and endorsed Senator Barack Obama for the presidency; Mr. Trump built a political following around false allegations and conspiracy theories about Mr. Obama’s birth. By the time Mr. Trump was President Trump, Ms. Winfrey considered becoming Mr. Trump’s rival rather than his running mate. She called up Senator Mitt Romney to discuss ideas about taking on Mr. Trump in some fashion.
Persons: Donald Trump, I’m, , Oprah Winfrey, Trump, , Winfrey, Barack Obama, Obama’s, President Trump, Mitt Romney Organizations: Trump, Oprah
When you think about Donald Trump, what’s the first word that comes to mind? When you think about Donald Trump, what’s the first word that comes to mind? But all of them said they wished someone other than Mr. Biden would be the Democratic presidential nominee this year. This focus group is a companion to that Biden group: We spoke with 12 women who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020 to discuss how they saw him now. But disdain for Mr. Trump’s personality was exceeded by frustration with Mr. Biden on policy and competence.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Biden, Trump, Trump’s, Mr, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Organizations: Democratic, Biden, Mr, Trump Locations: Arizona
What’s clear is that Mr. Trump is no longer the outsider voice that resonated with these voters in 2016. Still, their concerns about him do not necessarily make Mr. Biden or Democrats look better by comparison. For all but one of these voters, Mr. Trump’s shortcomings do not translate into increased support for Mr. Biden at this point. But could Mr. Biden win some of them over, especially those whose top issue in this election is protecting and defending democracy? We put that question to these lapsed Trump voters, and the scale of Mr. Biden’s challenge was clear in their answers.
Persons: Donald Trump, , Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Kennedy, MAGA, Lago, Biden, Mr, Biden’s Organizations: Republican, Republican Party, Republicans, Mr, Trump
His performance so far reflects his success at transforming the Republican Party in his image. The most important message from the primaries is the most straightforward: Trump’s coalition is the dominant faction in the GOP. Like McConnell’s announcement, the choices by GOP elected officials in the primary contest signal their acknowledgement of the party’s direction. The share of GOP elected officials who have endorsed Haley isn’t anywhere near as large as her share of the total vote. But a deeper factor also explains the imbalance in support among GOP elected officials.
Persons: Donald Trump, He’s, Ronald Reagan, Nikki Haley, , Trump, Reagan, Bob Dole, George W, Bush, Mitt Romney, Whit Ayres, Democrat Grover Cleveland, Republican Benjamin Harrison, ” Ayres, Ayres, Grover Cleveland, ” Chris Wilson, Ron DeSantis, , , Gary Langer, he’s, Kyle Kondik, “ It’s, William Mayer, George H.W, George H.W . Bush, Democrat Al Gore, Haley, Dwight Eisenhower, Sen, Robert Taft, Mitch McConnell, Haley isn’t, Chris Sununu, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Liz Cheney, Wilson, Mike Johnson, McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, Jennifer Horn, Biden, William Galston, Galston, , , Kristen Soltis Anderson, isn’t, Eisenhower, “ Trump, ” Galston, ” Trump, Missouri GOP Sen, Eric Schmitt, wouldn’t, he’d Organizations: CNN, Republican, Republican Party, South Carolina Gov, GOP, Washington, Trump, Veteran GOP, White, Democrat, Democratic, Florida Gov, , ABC, University of Virginia’s Center, Politics, Northeastern University, Republican internationalists, Republicans, Chicago Council, Global Affairs, Trump’s GOP, New Hampshire Gov, South, Brookings Institution, Biden, Republican National Committee, Missouri GOP Locations: Sunday’s, Iowa , New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan, George H.W ., Southern, Iowa, New Hampshire, Oakland, Washtenaw, Kent, Ukraine, Trump’s, Missouri
The grief of infertility can be all-consuming, but also hard to fully grasp for anyone who has blessedly never experienced it. It is an unusual grief, a grief about lives not yet begun rather than lives that have come to an end. I am also of the mind that science is one way that miracles are made possible in this world. To the extent that Alabama’s laws have now been interpreted in such a way that I.V.F. is at least temporarily unavailable, I am hopeful that policymakers in the state will take rapid action to put policies in place to protect it.
Locations: Alabama
In the past, Democrats and Republicans at least understood why members of the other party liked their chosen candidates. But for a lot of Democrats, it feels impossible to imagine why anyone would cast a vote for Trump. Kristen Soltis Anderson is a veteran Republican pollster, a founding partner of the opinion research firm Echelon Insights and a CNN contributor. She spends her days trying to understand the thinking of Republican voters, including hosting focus groups for New York Times Opinion. You can listen to our whole conversation by following “The Ezra Klein Show” on the NYT Audio App, Apple, Spotify, Google or wherever you get your podcasts.
Persons: Donald Trump, weren’t, Barack Obama, George W, don’t, , Ezra Klein, Kristen Soltis Anderson, Republican pollster, Trump Organizations: Republicans, Trump, Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, Google, Republican, CNN, New York
primary and what the general election might look like after the primary. Frank Bruni: Mike, Kristen, happy Iowa caucuses. I’m sitting here at my kitchen table in a parka and earmuffs, in honor of the freezing temperatures that caucusgoers are expected to brave. Kristen Soltis Anderson: I doubt that the events of the last few days have done much. This is still Trump’s caucus to lose.
Persons: Frank Bruni, Mike Murphy, John McCain, , Kristen Soltis Anderson, Mike, Kristen, I’m, Donald Trump’s, Chris Christie’s, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis Organizations: Center, University of Southern, Republican Locations: University of Southern California, Iowa
Opinion | The Republican Alternatives to Trump
  + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
Ms. Anderson mentions the former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley as a viable alternative to Mr. Trump. But in terms of good fiscal governance and foreign policy, I believe that Ms. Haley is even more misguided than Mr. Trump. It is strategically savvy of them not to level any direct harsh criticism at Mr. Trump. Perhaps the reason they have not yet done so convincingly is that they are not running “against” Mr. Trump. Several of them are likely running for vice president, and that would preclude discussing their differences.
Persons: Kristen Soltis Anderson, Anderson, Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Trump, Haley, , Eric Murchison Vienna, Ron DeSantis, William Sherman Huntington, ” Mr, Carolyn Bross Bloomingdale Organizations: Republicans, South, Republican, Trump, Locations: South Carolina, Mexico, Va, N.Y, N.J
If only the field were smaller, the thinking went, surely Mr. Trump would be defeated. This line of thinking became an excuse for candidates who didn’t want to take any real swings at Mr. Trump. It was the field — not Mr. Trump — that was the problem. And even as Mr. Trump’s opponents dropped out, some of their voters wound up drifting to Mr. Trump as a second choice, keeping him at the head of the pack. While there is some truth that having more candidates helps Mr. Trump win the nomination, consolidating the field alone is not likely sufficient to defeat him.
Persons: ” Michael J, Marty McFly, Donald Trump, Trump, Ted Cruz of, Marco Rubio, Trump’s Organizations: Republican Party Locations: Ted Cruz of Texas, Marco Rubio of Florida, Michigan
For many if not most Republican primary voters, Mr. Trump is the equivalent of an incumbent president (and to some, he still is president), and incumbents generally get renominated with ease. Several members of the group had positive things to say about Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and some of the other candidates. So far, the other Republican candidates for president aren’t breaking through and giving these voters reasons to pass on Mr. Trump’s candidacy. And how do you attack and beat Mr. Trump when so few Republicans — including these 11 — want to see Mr. Trump attacked? The group made some suggestions for how to appeal to them and called out dimensions of Mr. Trump that they don’t like.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, aren’t, Trump’s, hasn’t Organizations: Republican, Mr Locations: Iowa
But by the end of the spring 2023, following the Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg’s indictment of Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis’s rocky entrance into the presidential race, not only had Mr. Trump regained his lead, he had expanded upon it. In our focus group of 11 Republican voters in early primary states this month, Times Opinion recruited a range of likely primary voters and caucusgoers to weigh in on the state of the race. Not a single participant thought that Mr. Trump — or any Republican, really — would lose to Mr. Biden. Only 9 percent of likely Republican primary voters think Mr. Trump is a “long shot” to beat Mr. Biden, and more than six in 10 think Mr. Trump is a sure bet against Mr. Biden. Additionally, only 14 percent of Republican primary voters who are considering a Trump alternative said they were doing so because they worried Mr. Trump couldn’t win.
Persons: Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, , Trump, Alvin Bragg’s, Mr, DeSantis, Donald Trump won’t, Joe Biden, Biden Organizations: Republican, Mr, CBS News Locations: Florida, Manhattan
Opinion: The surprise winner of the debate
  + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Opinion Cnn Contributors | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +30 min
CNN —CNN Opinion asked our political contributors to weigh on the first Republican presidential debate of the 2024 season. On Wednesday night, on more than one issue, Haley broke with the old guard in some meaningful ways. Karen Finney: Ron DeSantis falls flatKaren Finney Ralph AlswangeAfter weeks of buildup and reports of serious debate preparation with a top Republican debate coach, this was supposed to be the night that Florida Gov. Instead, DeSantis delivered a flat debate performance devoid of any standout moments, demonstrating why he is the best alternative to former President Donald Trump. Asa Hutchinson in a few instances, not one of the GOP candidates sounded like a serious contender for the White House.
Persons: Nikki Haley, , Donald Trump, Haley, won’t —, that’s, Trump, Joe Biden’s, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Haley’s, Karen Finney, Karen Finney Ralph Alswange, DeSantis, Donald Trump ., MAGA, George Soros, Florida’s, ” Karen Finney, Patrick T, Brown, Patrick, Mike Pence, Ramaswamy’s, Ramaswamy, Pence, “ It’s, ” Ramaswamy, Sophia A, Nelson, ‘ Rich, Richmond ’ Sophia A, Nelson Sophia A, Richmond ”, Oliver Anthony, Sen, Tim Scott of, Margaret Thatcher —, Michelle Obama, ” Scott Jennings, Scott Jennings, Nikki Haley overperforming, Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchison, Chris Christie, unapologetically, George W, Bush, Mitch McConnell, Jill Filipovic, Jill Filipovic Vivek Ramaswamy, G.T . Bynum, Bynum, Ronald Reagan —, , shamefully, Putin, Nicole Hemmer, Robert Taft, Dwight Eisenhower, Ike, Ronald Reagan, Pat Buchanan, Carolyn T, Robert M, Who, Geoff Duncan, GOP Geoff Duncan CNN, Asa Hutchinson, ” Roxanne Jones, Roxanne Jones, Nikki Haley —, I’ve, Jones, , WURD, Kristen Soltis Anderson, Nikki Haley’s, ” Raul A, Reyes, Joe Biden, Biden, Raul A, Jon Gabriel, Jon Gabriel Immigration, I’m, ” DeSantis Organizations: CNN, South Carolina Gov, Republican Party of Trump, Florida Gov, Biden, Republican, Donald Trump . Time, New, New Jersey Gov, Democratic, Trump, GOP, Public Policy Center, Economic, North, Richmond, British, Republican Party, North Dakota Gov, Arkansas Gov, RunSwitch Public Relations, Twitter, Pew Research Center, Internal Revenue Service, Department of Education, Pew, Former South Carolina Gov, Rogers Center, Vanderbilt University, “ Partisans, Conservative, Wednesday, Department of Justice, UN, Former New Jersey Gov, America’s Conservative Party, White House . Florida Gov, ESPN The Magazine, ESPN, New York Daily News, Philadelphia Inquirer, Kristen Soltis Anderson CNN Former South Carolina Gov, America, Reyes CNN, Special Forces, Fox, CNN Town Hall, USA, Gallup, The Arizona Locations: China, Florida, Hawaii, New Jersey, America, Washington , DC, Ukraine, Tim Scott of South Carolina, Georgia, Louisville , Kentucky, millennials, New York, Israel, United States, Tulsa , Oklahoma, Mexico, El Paso, dearer, Arizona, The Arizona Republic
What's keeping Republican voters feeling good about Donald Trump's presidential prospects in 2024? candidates peel voters away from Mr. Trump? Those were two of the questions that prompted us to organize our latest Times Opinion focus group, with 11 Republican voters from Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, the four states that will go first in the G.O.P. We wanted to hear their views in the aftermath of the latest indictment against Mr. Trump and ahead of this Wednesday's first debate among the leading 2024 Republican candidates. As for the debate, there was little appetite for criticism of him from the other Republican candidates.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump, It's, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Biden, , DeSantis haven’t Organizations: Mr, Republican, Gov, Biden Locations: Iowa , New Hampshire , Nevada, South Carolina, Florida
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