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☆ Keep buying the 'Trump trades' through inauguration, Societe Generale says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Hakyung Kim | In Hakyungkim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Cryptocurrencies and banks have been on a tear since President-elect Donald Trump's victory last week, and Societe Generale thinks these "Trump trades" have more room to run into January. The firm specifically underscored bank stocks, companies exposed to the reshoring theme, small-cap names and crypto. "Trump trades are in full bloom and should continue to outperform until Inauguration Day, in our view," U.S. chief economist Stephen Gallagher wrote in a Thursday research note. Gallagher is not the only one on Wall Street who thinks the "Trump trade" has more legs. Societe Generale said its Trump 2.0 thematic basket has jumped more than 7% in the week since the election, but it is only up 15% in 2024, compared to the S & P 500 's 25% year-to-date gains.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Stephen Gallagher, Russell, bitcoin, Gallagher, Jason Draho Organizations: Societe Generale, Trump, US, US Banks, SG Global, Wall, UBS Locations: US

☆ China's bond market is rattled as central bank squares off with bond bulls
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A "Buy Treasury bonds" poster is seen at a bank in Haian, East China's Jiangsu province, Aug 1, 2024. "We remain actively bullish," said a bond fund manager, undeterred by unprecedented government moves to cool the sizzling treasury market and arrest a plunge in yields, which move inversely to prices. Falling yields also complicate the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) efforts to stabilize the weakening yuan. Unlike the West, "China's financial markets, including the bond market, are subject to top-down regulation," said Ryan Yonk, economist with the American Institute for Economic Research. Late on Friday, the central bank said it will gradually increase the purchase and sale of treasury bonds in its open market operations.

Persons: Wang Hongfei, Ryan Yonk, Pan Gongsheng, Kiyong Seong, Tan Yiming Organizations: Bank of China's, American Institute for Economic Research, Societe Generale, Minsheng Securities Locations: Haian, East China's Jiangsu, Beijing, Shanghai, China, Asia

☆ European Central Bank set to hold rates with inflation picture muddying demand for cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Annette Weisbach | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank is set to keep interest rates steady this week after cutting in June for the first time since September 2019. The hold would come amid uncertainty about underlying inflation dynamics, especially stemming from the labor market, which have weighed on the central bank's resolve to embark on a rapid path of cuts. "ECB speakers, including President [Christine] Lagarde and Chief Economist [Philip] Lane, have made it quite clear that the July meeting is set to be more of a stock-taking exercise than a policy-decision meeting, also given the absence of new staff forecasts," Anatoli Annenkov of Societe Generale said in a recent research note. "With no new quarterly data available, e.g. GDP, compensation and labour productivity data, the [ECB's] Governing Council will instead have to make do with mostly survey data," he said, adding that previous data points to a bumpy recovery in the euro area — the 20 countries that share the single currency.

Persons: Christine, Lagarde, Philip, Lane, Anatoli Annenkov Organizations: FRANKFURT, European Central Bank, ECB, Societe Generale

☆ Wall Street takes bets on which major central bank will blink first
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Brendan McDermid | Reuterswatch nowSwiss headline inflation fell from 1.7% in December to 1.3% in January, well below consensus forecasts, while core inflation dropped from 1.5% to 1.2%. Analysts at Capital Economics said the steep decline meant inflation "looks sure to undershoot the SNB's Q1 forecast of 1.8%." "However, with the January inflation downside surprise, the SNB forecast looks too high to us, and the probability of a policy rate cut on 21 March has increased. Bank of Japan to end negative rate era While most major central banks are looking at loosening monetary policy after more than two years of aggressive tightening to combat rampant inflation, the question for the Bank of Japan is the opposite. The country's core inflation rate — which excludes food and energy — fell to 2% year-on-year in January, after a third monthly increase, surprising slightly to the upside and suggesting that a sustainable return to ultra-low inflation may not be in the cards.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Société Générale, Kit Juckes Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, Capital Economics, UBS, Bank of Japan, Bank of Locations: New York City, U.S, Bank of Japan, French

☆ Markets are underestimating the potential for an economic slowdown, and 'greedflation' won't help investors anymore, Societe Generale says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewInvestors are underestimating the risk of an economic slowdown, and "greedflation" among companies can't prop up the market any longer, Société Générale said in a note this week. Firms hiking prices likely helped avoid a deeper slump in profits stemming from a slowing economy, Société Générale strategist Albert Edwards said. "The Greedflation driven surge in margins helped stop the profits slowdown turning into a deep downturn. A recession still poses a decent risk to the economy, though investors have warmed up to the prospect of a soft-landing.

Persons: —, Société Générale, they're, Société, Albert Edwards, Greedflation, Edwards, –, Evercore, quant, Andrew Lapthorne, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, New, Fed, Institute of Supply, Evercore ISI

☆ Exclusive: Four banks quit initiative assessing climate targets
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Tommy Wilkes | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Four major banks, including Standard Chartered Plc (STAN.L) and HSBC Plc (HSBA.L), have quit a United Nations-backed initiative to scrutinise climate targets set by corporations, according to people familiar with the matter. Many lenders say they should finance fossil fuels as long as economies depend on them. The spokesperson added that Standard Chartered was seeking alternative third-party validation of its climate targets and that it was setting science-based targets through the NZBA. It will still require them to cease the financing of fossil fuel projects that would weigh on their longer-term emissions targets. Credit Agricole (CAGR.PA), ING (INGA.AS), BBVA (BBVA.MC) and Swedbank (SWEDa.ST) told Reuters they remained committed to SBTi validating their emissions targets.

Persons: SBTi, SBTi's, Pietro Rocco, haven't, it's, Rocco, Tommy Reggiori Wilkes, Simon Jessop, Josie Kao Organizations: Standard Chartered, HSBC Plc, United, Societe Generale SA, ABN Amro Bank, Zero Banking Alliance, HSBC, Societe Generale, ABN Amro, Reuters, Credit, ING, BBVA, NatWest, Commerzbank, BNP, Allianz, Alliance, Zero, Carbon Trust, Thomson Locations: United Nations, Nations, Paris, U.S, decarbonising, London

☆ The S&P 500 will trade near its all-time high before a recession drags it down again in a topsy-turvy 2024, Société Générale says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The S&P 500 will climb higher in the first quarter but then plunge 12%, the French bank said. AdvertisementGet ready for an up-and-down 2024 where the S&P 500 nears record highs, plunges, and then stages another comeback, Société Générale says. "The S&P 500 should be in 'buy-the-dip' territory, as leading indicators for profits continue to improve." The S&P 500 traded at 4,556 as of Wednesday's closing bell. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said earlier this month that he's expecting the S&P 500 to trade at 4,700 points by the end of 2024.

Persons: Société, —, Société Générale, SocGen, Manish Kabra, It's, Kabra, who's, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, he's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Big Tech, Wall, Bank of America, RBC Capital Markets

☆ There are 2 factors that may be driving bond yields more than Fed meetings, Societe Generale says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Fed meetings may not be the biggest mover of the bond market, Societe Generale said. AdvertisementAdvertisementDespite US bond yields plunging after Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, central bankers may not be moving the market as much as other factors, according to Societe Generale. Another factor elbowing yields higher is the Bank of Japan, according to Edwards. AdvertisementAdvertisementThis week, the BoJ further loosened its grip on bond yields, marking another step back from its so-called yield curve control policy meant to stimulate the economy by keeping interest rates low. "That pressure intensified at exactly the same time as it became apparent just how gargantuan US Treasury issuance had become," he added.

Persons: —, Albert Edwards, Fedspeak, Edwards Organizations: Societe Generale, Bank of Japan, Service, Reserve, Treasury, Treasury Department

☆ Clifford Chance's lawsuit against SocGen can continue in London, court rules
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A logo of French bank Societe Generale is seen on the company's skyscraper at the financial and business district of La Defense near Paris, France September 14, 2023. Societe Generale's case against Goldas was ultimately dismissed, prompting the bank to accuse Clifford Chance of negligence. Clifford Chance applied to London's High Court for a declaration that it was not liable to Societe Generale for any alleged negligence or breach of duty. "The dispute concerns whether or not an English firm of solicitors were negligent in their conduct of English law litigation in the English High Court," the judge said. Clifford Chance and Societe Generale declined to comment.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Clifford Chance's, Clifford Chance, Goldas, Judge Andrew Henshaw, Sam Tobin, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, France –, Generale's, High, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France, London

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 20, 2023. General Electric (GE.N) jumped 6.4% in premarket trading after the aircraft engine manufacturer raised its full-year profit forecast. General Motors (GM.N) added 1.5% after beating third-quarter profit estimates, while 3M (MMM.N) gained 4.1% after raising its full-year adjusted profit forecast. Of the 86 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, 78% have topped analysts' expectations, LSEG data showed. The turmoil in the Middle East is also focus as Israel intensified its assault on Hamas in Gaza.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Bitcoin, Shubham Batra, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, General Electric, General Motors, 3M, Societe Generale, Apple, Microsoft, Reserve, Nvidia, Commerce Department, Dow e, Reuters, Arm Holdings, Intel, Marathon, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Coinbase, Bengaluru

☆ The stock market today has 'echoes' of the 1987 crash, and even a hint of a recession would be a massive blow to equities, Societe Generale says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are following the same path they did ahead of the 1987 stock crash, Societe Generale said. Investors are bullish in the face of rising bond yields, in an "echo" of late 80s sell-off. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stock market is sending worrying signals, and any sign of recession now could spark a big sell-off, according to Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards. But the outperformance in the face of soaring bond yields could be a warning of pain to come, if history is any guide. Meanwhile, only 32% of individual investors think the chance of a 1987-style stock market crash over the next six months is less than 10% according to Yale's US Crash Confidence Index.

Persons: Albert Edwards, —, Edwards, Dow, bullishness, Raymond James Organizations: Societe Generale, Service, Generale, Federal Reserve, Treasury, York Fed

☆ Larger Italian banks still seen paying one-off tax despite opt-out offer
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Valentina Za | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The government sparked a market rout last month with the surprise announcement of a 40% tax on the profits banks are reaping from rising interest rates. The option would benefit banks that hold a higher proportion of Italian government bonds among their assets relative to loans. Banca Akros and broker Equita also expect most banks to pay the tax. Equita also said paying the levy would allow lenders to maintain more flexibility over their remuneration policy. Switching the tax basis to risk-weighted assets helps banks which have a lower 'risk density', meaning the average risk weight per unit of exposure.

Persons: Jennifer Lorenzini, Equita, Akros, Siena, Valentina Za, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Generale, Banca Akros, ICCREA, Bank, Banca Generali, Thomson Locations: Monte dei, Siena, Italy, Italy's

☆ 'Something very strange' explains why a US recession has been delayed
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

"Something very strange has happened" in the economy that is preventing a recession, Societe Generale said. The bank highlighted that as the Fed raised interest rates over the past year, corporate net interest payments actually fell. According to Societe Generale, "something very strange has happened" that explains why a US recession has been delayed, and it has to do with some timely moves made by corporations. The bank highlighted that going back to at least 1975, corporate net interest payments would rise as the Fed raised interest rates. "Normally when interest rates rise, so too do net debt payments, squeezing profit margins and slowing the economy.

Persons: Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, SocGen's Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Societe Generale, Service, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale's, Bank of America, Companies Locations: Wall, Silicon

As doubts grow about the strength of its economic recovery, foreign money has left China's markets and the currency has fallen 4% against the dollar since late January. Analysts at Nomura and Societe Generale say the yuan could soon head for 7.3, which as last plumbed in November. Reflecting that, the trade-weighted CFETS basket against which the People's Bank of China (PBOC) manages the currency, has dropped to 99 from 100 in February. THE CHEAP CURRENCYBecky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, expects the yuan will continue to depreciate. "The interest rate gap remains wide, so many hedge funds continue to use yuan as a funding currency," Liu said.

NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - Societe Generale SA (SOGN.PA) agreed to pay $105 million to settle U.S. investor litigation accusing the French bank of violating antitrust law by conspiring with rivals to rig Euribor, a key European interest rate benchmark. A preliminary settlement was filed late Friday with the U.S. District Court in Manhattan, and requires a judge's approval. Societe Generale denied wrongdoing in agreeing to settle, court papers show. The case is Sullivan et al v. Barclays Plc et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. Reporting by Jonathan Stempel in New York, Editing by Rosalba O'BrienOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - Societe Generale SA (SOGN.PA) agreed to pay $105 million to settle U.S. investor litigation accusing the French bank of violating antitrust law by conspiring with rivals to rig Euribor, a key European interest rate benchmark. A preliminary settlement was filed late Friday with the U.S. District Court in Manhattan, and requires a judge's approval. If approved, the accord would mean investors have obtained $651.5 million of settlements with seven banks. Societe Generale denied wrongdoing in agreeing to settle, court papers show. The case is Sullivan et al v. Barclays Plc et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No.

Credit Suisse Chief Financial Officer Dixit Joshi and his teams will hold meetings over the weekend to assess strategic scenarios for the bank, people with knowledge of the matter said on Friday. Swiss regulators are encouraging UBS and Credit Suisse to merge but neither bank wanted to do so, one source said. The boards of UBS and Credit Suisse were expected to separately meet over the weekend, the Financial Times said,Credit Suisse shares jumped 9% in after-market trading following the FT report. Credit Suisse and UBS declined to comment. Efforts to shore up Credit Suisse come as policymakers including the European Central Bank and U.S. President Joe Biden sought to reassure investors and depositors the global banking system is safe.

A source with knowledge of the matter said that Swiss regulators are encouraging UBS and Credit Suisse to merge, but that both banks do not want to do so. Credit Suisse shares jumped 9% in after-market trading following the FT report. Credit Suisse and UBS declined to comment on the report. "Credit Suisse is a very special case," said Frédérique Carrier, head of investment strategy at RBC Wealth Management. The supervisors were told deposits were stable across the euro zone and exposure to Credit Suisse was immaterial, a source familiar with the meeting's content told Reuters.

☆ Exclusive: Some Credit Suisse counterparties curb dealings as bank heads into scenario meetings -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Shankar Ramakrishnan Stefania Spezzati Sumeet Chatterjee | Shankar Ramakrishnan | Stefania Spezzati | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Credit Suisse declined to comment. Credit Suisse intends to borrow up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($54 billion) from the Swiss National Bank in what it called "decisive action" to boost its liquidity on Thursday. The five people with direct knowledge of the bank's trading counterparties requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation. Credit Suisse has said that it is a strong, global bank. Among possible scenarios, analysts, bankers and investors speculate that Credit Suisse could sell or wind down some of its existing businesses with a break-up potentially on the cards.

Credit Suisse declined to comment on the banks' actions. MARKET TROUBLES LINGERBanking stocks globally have been battered since Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, raising questions about other weaknesses in the wider financial system. A view of the Park Avenue location of the First Republic Bank, in New York City, U.S., March 10, 2023. The supervisors were told deposits were stable across the euro zone and exposure to Credit Suisse was immaterial, a source familiar with the meeting's content told Reuters. "Japan's financial system remains stable as a whole," Kishida told a news briefing.

☆ Exclusive: Some Credit Suisse counterparties put curbs on new dealings involving lender -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Shankar Ramakrishnan Stefania Spezzati Sumeet Chatterjee | Shankar Ramakrishnan | Stefania Spezzati | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] The logo of Societe Generale bank is pictured on an office building in Nantes, France, March 16, 2023. Credit Suisse declined to comment. These five people with direct knowledge of the matter requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation. Societe Generale has maintained existing counterparty positions with Credit Suisse, which it had cut back in recent weeks, but it is not increasing them, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the situation. Another global bank has reduced its unsecured exposure to Credit Suisse, which includes all lending with no collateral, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

Credit Suisse Group AG shares fell more than 25% Wednesday and hit a fresh record low, reflecting increasing concerns that troubles that hit regional U.S. banks have migrated across the Atlantic. Other major European banks took hits, with shares in France’s two major international banks, Société Générale SA and BNP Paribas SA, both down more than 10%. Shares in Germany’s Deutsche Bank AG slid 8%.

Feb 27 (Reuters) - Three banks agreed to pay $1.35 billion to resolve litigation by former Allen Stanford investors who accused them of contributing to the imprisoned financier's massive Ponzi scheme. Canada's Toronto-Dominion Bank <TD.TO> will pay $1.205 billion, HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA.L) will pay $40 million and Independent Bank Group Inc (IBTX.O) , formerly Bank of Houston, will pay $100 million. They avert a trial that had been scheduled for Monday in Houston federal court, where TD, HSBC and Independent Bank were the last remaining defendants. Two other defendants, France's Societe Generale SA (SOGN.PA) and Mississippi-based Trustmark Corp (TRMK.O), settled for a respective $157 million and $100 million earlier this year. Independent Bank expects to recognize a $100 million first-quarter expense for its settlement, a regulatory filing shows.

Feb 21 (Reuters) - Societe Generale SA (SOGN.PA) agreed to pay $157 million to settle a lawsuit accusing the French bank and several other banks of contributing to imprisoned Ponzi schemer Allen Stanford's estimated $7.2 billion fraud. The payout was disclosed on Tuesday in a filing in Houston federal court, and requires a judge's approval. Societe Generale denied wrongdoing, and settled to avoid the burden, "very substantial expense" and risk of litigation, settlement papers show. The banks have denied wrongdoing, saying they provided routine services to Stanford's bank and did not know about his fraud. Another bank, Mississippi-based Trustmark Corp (TRMK.O), reached a $100 million settlement of similar claims.

☆ China will probably return to 'lower trend growth' after 2023, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina will probably return to 'lower trend growth' after 2023, economist saysWei Yao of Societe Generale says it's unlikely that housing demand in China will return to pre-pandemic levels.

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