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☆ Investors should control risks when investing in DLCs: SocGen
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors should control risks when investing in DLCs: SocGenSociete Generale's Daily Leverage Certificates allow investors to jump in on some of the most popular and most volatile trades – and Magnificent 7 stocks are the latest added exposure. Keith Chan talks about leveraging equities and key risk areas with DLCs.

Persons: Keith Chan Organizations: Generale's Locations: DLCs

☆ In this close election, these reshoring bets are likely to succeed no matter who becomes president
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Trade will work regardless Yet, reshoring is the one macroeconomic trade that will work no matter who wins the White House, according to Societe Generale. Last year, there were 287,000 reshoring and foreign direct investment job announcements, the second-highest year on record, according to the Reshoring Initiative . "One trade that has worked under both of the last two administrations is our US Reshoring 'beneficiary' equities," Kabra wrote. The company provides industrial automation products and services. The industrial conglomerate has a hand in a range of industries, including industrial automation solutions and building automation.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Kamala Harris, John Deere, Harris, Dan Levy, Manish Kabra, Kabra, reshoring, Morgan Stanley, Blake Moret, Jill Carey Hall, Michael Feinger, Feinger, Peter Matt Organizations: Barclays, Societe Generale, Science, Generale's, China, Reshoring, Trump, Packaging Corporation of America, Cummins, Rockwell Automation, Honeywell, Bank of America, Eaton, Steel Dynamics, United Rentals, Commercial Metals Locations: United States, Mexico, China, U.S, reshoring, Midwest

☆ Societe Generale's investment bank limits first-quarter profit plunge
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

French bank Societe Generale reported a smaller-than-expected 22% slide in first-quarter net income on Friday, as profits on equity derivative sales offset more weakness at its retail bank and in fixed-income trading. France's third-biggest listed lender, whose CEO Slawomir Krupa is seeking to end several years of lackluster performance and trim costs, said group net income over the first three months of the year was 680 million euros ($729.30 million). Sales slipped 0.4% to 6.65 billion euros, above the 6.46 billion-euro analyst average estimate. SocGen's investment banking division saw its earnings jump 26.4% to 690 million euros, beating forecasts, while revenues weakened 5.1% to 2.62 billion euros for the quarter. Equity derivatives sales, an area where SocGen has historically been strong, did well, the bank said, as did corporate financing services and its advisory business.

Persons: Slawomir Krupa Organizations: Societe Generale, Equity

☆ Nearly everyone has given up on their recession call, and that makes the outlook 'dangerously reminiscent' of 2007, SocGen says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recession views are dangerously similar to those in 2007, SocGen's Albert Edwards said. Soft landing or no landing outlooks are growing on Wall Street as the US appears on solid economic footing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Those signs appear lost on many other market commentators, who have dialed back their recession views in the last few months. "All this is (dangerously) reminiscent of 2007, when all around were telling me I was wrong and should give up calling that much-delayed recession," he later added.

Persons: SocGen's Albert Edwards, Edwards, —, Société, Albert Edwards, That's, Doom, Nouriel Roubini Organizations: Service, Chicago, York Fed's Survey, Consumer, National Federation of Independent Business, National Association of Business, Fed, Investor Locations: York

☆ China's rapidly dwindling future will shape the world for decades to come
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +14 min

Everything was getting bigger — its cultural influence, geopolitical ambition, population — and seemed poised to continue until the world was remade in China's image. But now China's economy is withering, and the future Beijing imagined is being cut down to size along with it. What Beijing does — or fails to do — to fight this malaise will determine the course of humanity for decades to come. China's deflation worries started in earnest in the summer. Years of overbuilding — by about double the population, according to some estimates — and slowing population growth caused prices to collapse .

Persons: Minxin Pei, there's, Charlene Chu, Autonomous Research Charlene Chu, Chu, Wei Yao, Générale, I'm, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, Xi Jinping, Xie Huanchi, Société Générale's Yao, Yao, It's, —, aren't, Logan Wright, Wright, Xi doesn't, Jinping, it's, Xi, Claremont's Pei, magnanimity Organizations: Claremont McKenna College, Autonomous Research, Federal Reserve, Getty Images Japan, Chinese Communist Party, Xi, CCP Locations: China, Beijing, dauphin, Xinhua, Japan, Xi's China, East Asia, Taiwan, Europe

☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns stocks look 'eerily similar' to how they did before their 25% drop in 2022 — and says the US economy is still heading for a downturn
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

He is the founder of Rosenberg Research and the former chief economist at Merrill Lynch — and he called the 2008 recession. Rosenberg ResearchRosenberg's model takes into account stock valuations, investor sentiment, market technicals, investor positioning, and macro fundamentals. Here's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which bundles together manufacturing data, bond and stock market performance, housing market activity, and consumer sentiment data. The economy doesn't jump from a tight labor market to layoffs," Rosenberg said in a note on Friday. Labor market and inflation data in the months ahead will tell the story for the US economy.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch —, Rosenberg, It's, —, Louis, GMO's Jeremy Grantham, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Business, Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St, CNN, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Rosenberg, Societe Generale's, Federal, Labor, CPI

☆ China's policy support is a 'stop-gap' measure — not stimulus, SocGen economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Close up of Chinese Yuan notes, with Mao Tse-tung Peter Dazeley | The Image Bank | Getty ImagesChina's recent policy support is aimed at fixing its system and shouldn't be seen as economic stimulus, according to Societe Generale's Asia chief economist and head of research. PMI divergenceExpansion in China's services sector climbed to its strongest since August, a private survey on Tuesday showed. However, the private survey diverged from China's official PMI. The moderating manufacturing PMI and contracting services PMI, along with other November data point to the fragility of the Chinese economy and a faster deceleration of growth momentum last month, they added. The official PMI includes more companies engaged in heavy industries compared with the Caixin PMI, which covers more consumer-focused firms, Barclays economists said.

Persons: Yuan, Mao Tse, Peter Dazeley, Wei Yao, Yao, Jian Chang Organizations: Bank, Getty, Societe Generale's, CNBC, Economic Work Conference, China Communist, PMI, National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, Barclays Locations: Societe Generale's Asia, China

☆ 'The damage has already been done': A 31-year market vet shares 3 pieces of evidence that the labor market is about to collapse, sending the economy into recession and the stock market spiraling
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The US economy added just 150,000 jobs, under the expected 180,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, now 0.5% higher than its low earlier this year. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis/Bullandbearprofits.comSecond, the inverted yield curve is starting to steepen. An inverted yield curve has been an extremely reliable recession indicator over the last several decades. Bullandbearprofits.com"Proven leading indicators show that the unemployment rate is likely to start rising materially soon. Piper SandlerIn addition to the yield curve and employment indicators above, other recession indicators continue to point to a downturn ahead.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merril Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, bode, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent, Fed, Bank of America, Societe Generale's, Generale, Edwards . Societe Generale Locations: lockstep, Edwards .

☆ Clifford Chance's lawsuit against SocGen can continue in London, court rules
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A logo of French bank Societe Generale is seen on the company's skyscraper at the financial and business district of La Defense near Paris, France September 14, 2023. Societe Generale's case against Goldas was ultimately dismissed, prompting the bank to accuse Clifford Chance of negligence. Clifford Chance applied to London's High Court for a declaration that it was not liable to Societe Generale for any alleged negligence or breach of duty. "The dispute concerns whether or not an English firm of solicitors were negligent in their conduct of English law litigation in the English High Court," the judge said. Clifford Chance and Societe Generale declined to comment.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Clifford Chance's, Clifford Chance, Goldas, Judge Andrew Henshaw, Sam Tobin, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, France –, Generale's, High, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France, London

If U.S. and Chinese growth holds up, the investment landscape will need to be redrawn too. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBut what if peak bond bearishness is already upon us? As Societe Generale's Albert Edwards points out, once the quarterly deflator is factored in, nominal GDP growth in the third quarter was actually only 3.5%. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsEqually, U.S. stocks look expensive if high yields start to choke the economy. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing Rights(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

Persons: Florence Lo, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Chris Iggo, Jamie McGeever, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Societe Generale's, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, of America's, HSBC, Reuters, AXA Investment, Bank of America's, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida, United States, China, Atlanta, Beijing, Europe, U.S, Bank

Re-enter risk premia on what should be 'risk free' bonds. The renewed corporate profits upswing riffs off this relatively robust nominal growth picture too - as do still benign corporate debt premia. However, keeping a lid on 5% nominal GDP may well be what's irking bonds as much as anything. While turning 10-year averages takes some time, nominal GDP growth according to a real time model from the Atlanta Fed is closer to 8% right now. CBO deficit projections to 2030US nominal GDP growth running at 8%?

Persons: York Fed's, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, today's, Treasuries, Fitch, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed, The, Barclays, Societe Generale's, Atlanta Fed, Moody's, U.S . AAA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, York, 35bp, 150bp, Treasuries, China, Europe

☆ Our base is U.S. will go into a recession by middle of 2024: Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOur base is U.S. will go into a recession by middle of 2024: Societe Generale's Subadra RajappaSubadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss latest Treasury yield trajectory, the impact of higher rates on markets, where yields are headed, and more.

Organizations: Societe Generale Locations: U.S

"We are negatively surprised by lack of revenue growth, increased capital target, payout & ROTE cut, and by the lack of details," Jefferies analysts said in a note. It also said its new targets were based on annual revenue growth expectations between zero and 2% between 2022 and 2026, but that it would aim to improve its cost-to-income ratio. A SocGen veteran and former head of its investment bank, Krupa said he would streamline the bank's activities but didn't elaborate. The share price decline put SocGen on course for the biggest one-day drop since March. "It will take time for the shares to discount the cost improvement given SG's mixed track record," they said.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Krupa, Slawomir Krupa, SocGen, JP Morgan, Tassilo Hummel, Silvia Aloisi, Elisa Martinuzzi, Michal Alexandrowicz, Mathieu Rosemain, Ingrid Melander, Mark Potter Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, BNP, Jefferies, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France, Russia

☆ Key targets in SocGen's new strategy plan
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A logo of French bank Societe Generale is seen on the company's skyscraper at the financial and business district of La Defense near Paris, France September 14, 2023. Here are key targets:GROWTHAnnual revenue growth expectations between 0 and 2% by 2026. In August last year, the bank said it was aiming for average annual revenue growth of at least 3% for 2021-2025. ROTETargets a 9 to 10% return on tangible equity ratio in 2026, up from a reported 5.6% ROTE at the end of June. CET1Aims for a CET1 ratio - a key measure of financial strength - of 13% in 2026, almost on par with the 13.1% reported at end of June.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Slawomir Krupa, SocGen, Krupa, Mathieu Rosemain, Ingrid Melander, Mark Potter Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, Generale's, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France

☆ European shares slip with central banks in focus; Nordic Semiconductor slumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, September 15, 2023. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) edged 0.2% lower by 0705 GMT, with healthcare (.SXDP) and rate-sensitive technology stocks (.SX8P) weighing on the index. Global central banks will take centre stage this week, with Bank of England likely to hike interest rates for the 15th time later in the week, while the Fed seems set for a hawkish pause. Nordic Semiconductor ASA (NOD.OL) shed nearly 14% after cutting its revenue guidance for the third quarter. Reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Varun H KOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Slawomir Krupa, Bansari Mayur, Varun Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Bank of, Nordic Semiconductor ASA, Societe, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, United States, Bank of England, Bengaluru

REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/DUBLIN, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Societe Generale's (SOGN.PA) much-hyped new strategy plans were given a thumbs down by investors on Monday, underscoring uncertainty over European banks as they face a brittle economy. "There are more questions about the future and the economy," Legras said, adding that transformative mergers between banks, which investors have waited for in vain, remained unlikely. Reuters GraphicsThat dampens the prospects for Europe's banks, whose valuations are low and static, said one adviser who works with top executives from the region's lenders, adding that investors struggle to see much promise for the sector. European banks' modest earning power has dampened investor appetite for their shares, which often trade at just a fraction of book value - the sum of their assets. While in the United States, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are valued at around 1.5 times book value, Germany's Deutsche Bank, Dutch lender ABN Amro, France's Credit Agricole and Britain's Standard Chartered are valued at just half book value or less.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Jerome Legras, Legras, Slawomir Krupa, Krupa, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Frederic Rozier, Morgan Stanley, Karel Lannoo, Elisa Martinuzzi, John O'Donnell, Alexander Smith Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, Reuters, European Central Bank, European Union, Commission, Deutsche Bank, ABN Amro, France's Credit, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France, DUBLIN, France's, Europe, United States, Germany, Mirabaud, U.S, Brussels

☆ SocGen's new boss Krupa pledges to cut costs to boost profits by 2026
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Societe Generale's new CEO Slawomir Krupa pledged on Monday to cut costs to boost profits by 2026 amid stagnating sales, in his first strategic plan for France's third-biggest listed bank. SocGen said it would target a 9 to 10% return on tangible equity ratio (ROTE) in 2026, up from a reported 5.6% ROTE at the end of June. The bank also said that it would reduce its exposure to upstream oil and gas businesses by 80% by 2030 when compared to 2019. SocGen said its new targets were based on annual revenue growth expectations between 0 and 2% by 2026. SocGen is also open to a sale of its equipment finance unit, sources have told Reuters.

Persons: Slawomir Krupa, Krupa, ambitioned, SocGen Organizations: Generale's, Basel Committee, Reuters, Finance, BNP Locations: Basel, Russia, Ukraine

☆ The Fed could still kill off more zombie companies even after bankruptcies have spiked 54% since last year
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

US bankruptcies soared 54% year-over-year in August. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. In effect, they were saying that companies feel pain in times of policy tightening, especially those with weaker balance sheets. In any case, easy money measures have "kept so many zombie companies on life support," in Societe Generale's view. "[T]he recent sharp rise in rates really could cause a shocking rise in bankruptcies, beyond all fears."

Persons: Albert Edwards, Edwards, Ander Perez, Orive, Yannick Timmer, loosens Organizations: Societe Generale, Service, Reserve, Federal Reserve, Generale Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ 'The vast bulk of companies are in big trouble': A renowned bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a recession is still on the way as bankruptcies rise — threatening to sink even the mega-cap stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-02 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

While big firms have survived high rates, Edwards said a recession would eventually hurt them too. Here are the effective interest rates for a few cohorts of the S&P 1500. The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows 49% of banks are tightening lending standards for small companies. They weren't able to lock into long-term loans at almost zero interest rates and pile it high in the money markets at variable rates," Edwards said. "In our view, the current savings rate is unsustainably low, and the main downside risk to growth is that the savings rate will suddenly move higher."

Persons: Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards, haven't, Louis, that's, we'll, Brian Rose, Rose, Piper Sandler, it's Organizations: Societe Generale's, Societe Generale, American Bankruptcy Institute, Generale, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Institute, Supply Management's, UBS Americas, UBS Companies

That will leave investors guessing whether another rate hike is coming in September or if July marks the end of the ECB's fastest-ever tightening spree. While markets had fully priced in another rate hike just a few weeks ago, investors are now split, with many expecting July's move to be the last. "We see a 60% probability that the ECB will hike again by a final 25bp on 14 September," Berenberg's Salomon Fiedler said. "Softer data such as the drop in the Eurozone composite PMI indicate a rising chance that the central bank will stay put in September already." This is a key reason why the balance of expectations has started to shift away from another rate hike, with economists increasingly focusing on how long rates will stay high.

Persons: July's, Berenberg's Salomon Fiedler, Isabel Schnabel, Jerome Powell, Anatoli Annenkov, Christine Lagarde, Commerzbank's Marco Wagner, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, PMI, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT

☆ 'Something very strange' explains why a US recession has been delayed
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

"Something very strange has happened" in the economy that is preventing a recession, Societe Generale said. The bank highlighted that as the Fed raised interest rates over the past year, corporate net interest payments actually fell. According to Societe Generale, "something very strange has happened" that explains why a US recession has been delayed, and it has to do with some timely moves made by corporations. The bank highlighted that going back to at least 1975, corporate net interest payments would rise as the Fed raised interest rates. "Normally when interest rates rise, so too do net debt payments, squeezing profit margins and slowing the economy.

Persons: Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, SocGen's Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Societe Generale, Service, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale's, Bank of America, Companies Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Societe Generale obtains France's first crypto licence
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, July 19 (Reuters) - French bank Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) has become the first company in France to obtain a license for crypto services, as a growing number of mainstream financial companies embrace crypto globally this year. Societe Generale's crypto unit, Forge, is licensed as of Tuesday to offer services, including crypto custody, trading and sales, according to the website of France's AMF market regulator. A slew of crypto firms, including the world's biggest exchange Binance, have already registered with the AMF. Licensed firms, however, are subject to more onerous rules in areas including corporate governance, IT and compliance. Crypto markets have rallied in 2023, spurred by growing interest in the volatile asset class by major U.S. financial firms including BlackRock and Fidelity.

Persons: Tom Wilson, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Societe Generale, Societe, France's AMF, AMF, BlackRock, Fidelity, Thomson Locations: France, London

☆ 'Tourflation'? Taylor Swift, Beyoncé and Bruce Springsteen could be making inflation worse
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Beyoncé performs onstage during the “RENAISSANCE WORLD TOUR” at PGE Narodowy on June 27, 2023 in Warsaw, Poland. "One of the things of course that struck me is how enormously high prices for concerts, for gigs have become," he told CNBC Make It. "I suspect that there is an impact on inflation overall from concert prices becoming more expensive. That's not necessarily due to one particular artist," he said, adding that concert prices themselves do, however, appear to have increased. Taylor Swift performs onstage during night one of Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour at Nissan Stadium on May 05, 2023 in Nashville, Tennessee.

Persons: Beyoncé, Kevin Mazur, Taylor Swift, Bruce Springsteen, Elton John, Harry Styles, Ed Sheeran, Natalie Merchant, Klaus Baader, It's, Filip Andersson, Andersson, it's, Philip Shaw, haven't, Baader, John Shearer, Shaw Organizations: PGE, Getty, Ticketmaster, U.K, Societe Generale, CNBC, Danske Bank, Nissan Locations: Warsaw, Poland, U.S, Sweden, Stockholm, Swedish, Nashville , Tennessee

LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - Dismissal of this year's much-scorned equity market rally as the frothy preserve of a handful of AI-fuelled stocks may be both misleading and also one of its strengths. Or, put another way, if you remove the top 10 stocks, the other 490 would only have gained 4%. And an eye-popping 75% surge in the high-octane 10-stock FANG+TM index (.NYFANG) - mega cap U.S. digital and tech stocks including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla - underlines that. In short, they're hard to avoid unless you dodge either U.S.-listed companies or equity markets altogether. "While stock market investments may be risky in the short run, when viewed against inflation they have offered far more certainty in the long run," he told clients.

Persons: Russell, Andrew Lapthorne, Japan's, Germany's DAX, Italy's, Duncan Lamont, Lamont, Mike Dolan, Mark Potter Organizations: Nasdaq, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, H1 Stock, Japan's Nikkei, MIB, McKinsey, Bank, Big Tech, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Europe, Japan, U.S, United States

That implied 'terminal' rate is lower than Fed officials' new year-end median projection of 5.60%. When set against the implied 2023 year-end SOFR rate of 5.20%, traders are pricing in almost 150 bps of rate cuts next year. Analysts at TD Securities reckon the Fed is done raising rates and will begin easing in December this year. This is the first time in more than a year no rate cuts have been priced into the 2023 SOFR futures curve. Just over a month ago, the curve implied around 100 bps of rate cuts in the second half of this year.

Persons: they're, Societe Generale's Stephen Gallagher, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Fed, Traders, Reuters, Securities, Societe, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida

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