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☆ The global 'carry trade' is unwinding. Here's why it's a brutal force crushing stocks worldwide.
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The unwind of the global yen "carry trade" is a force battering stocks. AdvertisementStocks plunged on Monday, and market pros say a lot of it has to do with the global unwind of the yen "carry trade." The carry trade refers to investors borrowing money at near-zero interest rates in Japan, and then redeploying that cash into higher-yielding assets around the world, such as stocks and bonds. "The selloff here is to a large extent attributable to the unwind of the so-called carry trade," Ed Yardeni told Yahoo Finance on Monday. AdvertisementThe unwind in the yen carry trade will go down as the biggest ever, according to a Monday note from Societe Generale.

Persons: —, Stocks, Ed Yardeni, that's, Yardeni, That's, Kit Juckes, Warren Buffett's, Juckes, It's Organizations: Service, Yahoo Finance, Bank of Japan, Federal, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan

☆ Societe Generale's investment bank limits first-quarter profit plunge
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

French bank Societe Generale reported a smaller-than-expected 22% slide in first-quarter net income on Friday, as profits on equity derivative sales offset more weakness at its retail bank and in fixed-income trading. France's third-biggest listed lender, whose CEO Slawomir Krupa is seeking to end several years of lackluster performance and trim costs, said group net income over the first three months of the year was 680 million euros ($729.30 million). Sales slipped 0.4% to 6.65 billion euros, above the 6.46 billion-euro analyst average estimate. SocGen's investment banking division saw its earnings jump 26.4% to 690 million euros, beating forecasts, while revenues weakened 5.1% to 2.62 billion euros for the quarter. Equity derivatives sales, an area where SocGen has historically been strong, did well, the bank said, as did corporate financing services and its advisory business.

Persons: Slawomir Krupa Organizations: Societe Generale, Equity

☆ Nearly everyone has given up on their recession call, and that makes the outlook 'dangerously reminiscent' of 2007, SocGen says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recession views are dangerously similar to those in 2007, SocGen's Albert Edwards said. Soft landing or no landing outlooks are growing on Wall Street as the US appears on solid economic footing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Those signs appear lost on many other market commentators, who have dialed back their recession views in the last few months. "All this is (dangerously) reminiscent of 2007, when all around were telling me I was wrong and should give up calling that much-delayed recession," he later added.

Persons: SocGen's Albert Edwards, Edwards, —, Société, Albert Edwards, That's, Doom, Nouriel Roubini Organizations: Service, Chicago, York Fed's Survey, Consumer, National Federation of Independent Business, National Association of Business, Fed, Investor Locations: York

☆ SocGen issues 10-mln-euro digital green bond on a public blockchain
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A logo of French bank Societe Generale is seen on the company's skyscraper at the financial and business district of La Defense near Paris, France September 14, 2023. REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsPARIS, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Societe Generale , France's third-biggest listed bank, said on Monday it issued its first so-called digital green bond on a public blockchain, as the lender seeks to build expertise in crypto services. AXA IM made the investment in the digital green bond by acquiring and then spending 5 million euros worth of SocGen's euro-denominated stablecoin, EUR CoinVertible (EURCV). SocGen's bond issuance, made on the Ethereum public blockchain, follows the launch last week by the European Investment Bank (EIB) of its second euro-denominated digital bond on a private blockchain, in partnership with Goldman Sachs Bank Europe, Santander and SocGen. SocGen's digital green bond issuance was made via its crypto unit, Forge.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Generali, SocGen, Blockchain, Mathieu Rosemain, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, Rights, AXA Investment, AXA, Generali Investments, European Investment Bank, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe, SocGen, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France, Santander

NII at the French retail division fell by 27% in the quarter, excluding two regulated savings accounts, "well below expectations," JP Morgan said in a note to clients. The French lender said it now saw NII of its French retail, private banking and insurance division falling by more than 20% in 2023. The French retail division's earnings also suffered from hedging contracts against the risks of low interest rates. SocGen's shares had edged up 0.6% by 0924 GMT. The bank has also finalised the merger of its two French retail networks.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, JP Morgan, SocGen, Slawomir Krupa, Jefferies, Krupa, ALD, Mathieu Rosemain, Silvia Aloisi, Ingrid Melander, Emelia Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, European Central Bank, BNP, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France

☆ SocGen Q3 earnings beat estimates as investment bank offsets French slump
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Societe Generale , France's third-biggest listed bank, posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings onFriday, as a resilient performance from its investment bank offset the steep downturn seen at its French retail division. SocGen's third-quarter reported group net income came in at 295 million euros ($313.2 million), above the 168 million-euro average of 13 analyst estimates compiled by the company. The bank has also finalised the merger of its two French retail networks. NII at the French retail division fell by 27% in the quarter, excluding two regulated savings accounts. In this context, the 0.4% drop in sales seen at SocGen's investment bank, compares well with some of its European peers.

Persons: Slawomir Krupa Organizations: Generale, BNP, Deutsche Bank, Barclays

The European Central Bank last week lifted rates to a record 4% and upgraded its inflation forecast for 2024, but the euro fell and has lost almost 2% against the dollar this month. Overall, Europe's central banks "would like to portray this idea of higher for longer (rates)," said Ed Hutchings, head of rates at Aviva Investors. The currency, which the central bank labeled "unjustifiably weak," barely caught a break and remains near a record low against the euro . He expected one the of big European central banks to be the first to cut rates. European central banks were "in a bind," Fiotakis added, as higher oil prices also threatened to push inflation higher.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, Kit Juckes, BoE, SocGen's Juckes, Ed Hutchings, Nathan Thooft, Bjoern, Fiotakis, Orla Garvey, Naomi Rovnick, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, LONDON, Bank of, Swiss, greenback, Societe Generale, European Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Aviva Investors, Investment Management, Reuters, DWS Group, Nomura, ING, Barclays, Federated, Thomson Locations: Swiss, Bank of England, Switzerland, Sweden, Europe, U.S, Western Europe, United States, Britain, Swedish, Japan, European

☆ Key targets in SocGen's new strategy plan
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A logo of French bank Societe Generale is seen on the company's skyscraper at the financial and business district of La Defense near Paris, France September 14, 2023. Here are key targets:GROWTHAnnual revenue growth expectations between 0 and 2% by 2026. In August last year, the bank said it was aiming for average annual revenue growth of at least 3% for 2021-2025. ROTETargets a 9 to 10% return on tangible equity ratio in 2026, up from a reported 5.6% ROTE at the end of June. CET1Aims for a CET1 ratio - a key measure of financial strength - of 13% in 2026, almost on par with the 13.1% reported at end of June.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Slawomir Krupa, SocGen, Krupa, Mathieu Rosemain, Ingrid Melander, Mark Potter Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, Generale's, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France

☆ SocGen's new boss Krupa pledges to cut costs to boost profits by 2026
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Societe Generale's new CEO Slawomir Krupa pledged on Monday to cut costs to boost profits by 2026 amid stagnating sales, in his first strategic plan for France's third-biggest listed bank. SocGen said it would target a 9 to 10% return on tangible equity ratio (ROTE) in 2026, up from a reported 5.6% ROTE at the end of June. The bank also said that it would reduce its exposure to upstream oil and gas businesses by 80% by 2030 when compared to 2019. SocGen said its new targets were based on annual revenue growth expectations between 0 and 2% by 2026. SocGen is also open to a sale of its equipment finance unit, sources have told Reuters.

Persons: Slawomir Krupa, Krupa, ambitioned, SocGen Organizations: Generale's, Basel Committee, Reuters, Finance, BNP Locations: Basel, Russia, Ukraine

REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/DUBLIN, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Societe Generale's (SOGN.PA) much-hyped new strategy plans were given a thumbs down by investors on Monday, underscoring uncertainty over European banks as they face a brittle economy. "There are more questions about the future and the economy," Legras said, adding that transformative mergers between banks, which investors have waited for in vain, remained unlikely. Reuters GraphicsThat dampens the prospects for Europe's banks, whose valuations are low and static, said one adviser who works with top executives from the region's lenders, adding that investors struggle to see much promise for the sector. European banks' modest earning power has dampened investor appetite for their shares, which often trade at just a fraction of book value - the sum of their assets. While in the United States, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are valued at around 1.5 times book value, Germany's Deutsche Bank, Dutch lender ABN Amro, France's Credit Agricole and Britain's Standard Chartered are valued at just half book value or less.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Jerome Legras, Legras, Slawomir Krupa, Krupa, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Frederic Rozier, Morgan Stanley, Karel Lannoo, Elisa Martinuzzi, John O'Donnell, Alexander Smith Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, Reuters, European Central Bank, European Union, Commission, Deutsche Bank, ABN Amro, France's Credit, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France, DUBLIN, France's, Europe, United States, Germany, Mirabaud, U.S, Brussels

People walk past a logo of French bank Societe Generale in front of the company's skyscraper at the financial and business district of La Defense near Paris, France September 14, 2023. The bank sees the business as non-core, having sold part of its operations in 2020, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity. But a transaction may not happen soon because difficult market conditions weigh on the unit's valuation, they said. Societe Generale Equipment Finance provides equipment leasing and financing solutions to manufacturers, dealers and vendors in sectors ranging from transport to industrials. Rather than naming non-core businesses, Krupa is more likely to outline the group's growth areas, said one person familiar with the bank's thinking.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Slawomir Krupa, Krupa, Italy's, SocGen, Pablo Mayo Cerqueiro, Mathieu Rosemain, Andres Gonzalez, Amy, Jo Crowley, Elisa Martinuzzi, Silvia Aloisi, Jane Merriman, David Evans Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, Finance, Reuters, Deutsche Bank, BNP, Societe Generale Equipment Finance, Basel Committee, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France, PARIS, Basel

The beat was underpinned by much lower-than-expected "cost of risk" - money set aside for failing loans - of 166 million euros. Analysts had expected 430 million euros. Dubbed a "year of transition" by Krupa's predecessor Frederic Oudea, 2023 is also marked by a severe downturn at SocGen's French retail banking division, fresh from a merger of its two local networks. The second quarter was also affected by negative exceptional items of 240 million euros, which Credit Suisse analysts said were tied to "legacy legal disputes". Retail banking outside France fared better, as did SocGen's car leasing division ALD Automotive (ALDA.PA), whose sales jumped by more than 17% thanks to the acquisition of rival LeasePlan.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Krupa, Slawomir Krupa, France's, Jefferies, Frederic Oudea, Intesa, LeasePlan, SocGen, Mathieu Rosemain, Augustin Turpin, Ingrid Melander, Mark Potter Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, Royal Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, Credit Suisse, Retail, ALD Automotive, Thomson Locations: French, Courbevoie, Paris, France, PARIS, Russia

☆ 'Something very strange' explains why a US recession has been delayed
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

"Something very strange has happened" in the economy that is preventing a recession, Societe Generale said. The bank highlighted that as the Fed raised interest rates over the past year, corporate net interest payments actually fell. According to Societe Generale, "something very strange has happened" that explains why a US recession has been delayed, and it has to do with some timely moves made by corporations. The bank highlighted that going back to at least 1975, corporate net interest payments would rise as the Fed raised interest rates. "Normally when interest rates rise, so too do net debt payments, squeezing profit margins and slowing the economy.

Persons: Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, SocGen's Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Societe Generale, Service, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale's, Bank of America, Companies Locations: Wall, Silicon

With economic and monetary policy outlooks varying, currency moves are increasingly out of sync with each other. More pain is also anticipated for the yuan, trading near seven-month lows, as well as smaller Asian currencies. It's continuing to weaken against some European currencies and also Latin American currencies," he said. MULTI-LAYERED CRISISKit Juckes, head of FX strategy at Societe Generale, said the focus on monetary policy differences was also a result of uncertainties elsewhere. "We've got a one-in-a-100-years pandemic and once-in-75-years war and a-once-in-25-years energy crisis all thrown into the mix together," said SocGen's Juckes.

Persons: Yen, Pound, Jordan Rochester, Nomura, Lee Hardman, Hardman, Juckes, Morgan Stanley reckons, We've, SocGen's, You’ve, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alun John, John Stonestreet Organizations: The Bank of, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Rochester, Societe Generale, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Europe, COVID, Ukraine, The Bank of Japan, United States, Beijing, Scandinavia

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Artificial intelligence gives real boost to U.S. stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, May 19 (Reuters) - Recent advances in artificial intelligence are fueling optimism over how businesses can operate more productively in the years ahead. They are also providing a big boost to the stock market. About 25% to 50% of those gains are owed to "the buzz around artificial intelligence," she noted. Indeed, optimism over AI is a key factor supporting a stock market facing numerous headwinds. His firm owns shares of Microsoft, Nvidia and Alphabet.

☆ SocGen beats estimates as bond trading offsets retail banking slump
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

General view of the logo outside a branch of French bank Societe Generale in Paris. French bank Societe Generale posted better than expected quarterly earnings on Friday after turmoil in bond and currency markets boosted its trading business. The trading windfall cushioned a slump in SocGen's French retail division, where earnings were curbed by stricter interest rate caps on mortgages and other loans. "Performance is tracking well in all the divisions, but the main issue is French retail," JPMorgan said in a note to clients. "We think the market will focus on French NII (net interest income), taking the shares down," it said.

☆ Slowing growth could make long-dated bonds attractive this summer, SocGen's head of fixed income says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSlowing growth could make long-dated bonds attractive this summer, SocGen's head of fixed income saysGuy Stear, head of fixed income research at Societe Generale, discusses credit market opportunities and the interest rate outlook.

☆ From Tesla to under-the-radar battery stocks: Wall Street has a playbook for the EV boom
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The bank's "Battery Electric Vehicles Basket" comprises several stocks across the EV supply chain, including automakers Rivian , Lucid and Li Auto . This may be the opportune moment for Chinese EV brands to knock on the doors of Europe." Among the Chinese EV makers, BYD, Nio and Xpeng are "the ones to watch," according to Bernstein. "We expect Chinese EV players to find better success targeting the compact, mass market EV segment that has so far been under-penetrated in Europe," the bank said. Tesla and under-the-radar plays Tesla is one of Deutsche Bank 's top picks in the EV space.

☆ Eiffage CEO de Ruffray put forward as SocGen board candidate
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

PARIS, March 10 (Reuters) - Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) said on Friday that its board will propose that shareholders elect Eiffage (FOUG.PA) Chief Executive Officer Benoit de Ruffray as an independent board director at its general meeting in May. Three other board appointments will be put to the vote at the meeting on May 23. If elected by SocGen's shareholders, the four new board members will replace outgoing CEO Frederic Oudea, Kyra Hazou, Gerard Mestrallet and Juan Maria Nin Genova. These board appointment proposals come on the heel of a top management reshuffle proposed by Krupa, who is also set to formally take the reins of the French lender on May 23. Reporting by Mathieu Rosemain; Editing by Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The reported group net income for the three months ending in December came at 1.16 billion euros ($1.24 billion), beating the analyst consensus of 834 million euros provided by Visible Alpha. SocGen's quarterly net income was however 35% lower than the same period a year ago, as the bank's hiked provisions for failing loans, which increased by close to fivehold to 413 millions in an uncertain economic environment. Group revenues were up by 4% to 6.89 billion euros in the fourth quarter, also beating the Visible Alpha consensus. Like its bigger French rival BNP Paribas(BNPP.PA), SocGen is enjoying higher revenues from debt and trading in volatile markets. It plans a 440 million-euro share buyback in 2023, on top of a cash dividend of 1.70 euro per share.

☆ Analysis: As Bank of Japan switches gears, roaring dollar hits the skids
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Reuters GraphicsThe dollar has risen 9% this year, as the Federal Reserve has jacked up interest rates to combat inflation at 40-year highs. As other central banks, from the Bank of England, to the European Central Bank, and the Reserve Bank of Australia, have raised their own rates, dollar bulls have run out of puff. The close relationship between Japanese monetary policy and U.S. Treasuries adds another twist to the story. It all boils down to whether Japanese investors have hedged their Treasury exposure or not, he said. But the stress is on "at the margin", not least because of the sheer size of Japanese investors' holdings of U.S. debt, analysts said.

☆ SocGen and Alliance Bernstein to launch global equities venture
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Gabriel Araujo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

PARIS, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Societe Generale (SOGN.PA), France's third-biggest listed bank, and U.S. investment management company Alliance Bernstein (AB.N) plan to form a joint venture focusing on global cash equities and equity research, they said on Tuesday. SocGen plans to take a 51% interest in the venture, with an option to take 100% ownership after five years, the French bank said, adding that the business would boost its profit from 2025 onwards. The joint venture will be run as a long-term partnership under the Bernstein name and will be headquartered in London. Robert van Brugge, CEO of Bernstein Research Services, will become CEO of the new entity for an initial term of five years, with Stephane Loiseau, head of SocGen's cash equities business, becoming his deputy. Reporting by Sudip Kar-Gupta Editing by Kirsten Donovan and David GoodmanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ SocGen’s BNP envy carries a cost
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It mimics BNP Paribas’s (BNPP.PA) deal with European peer Exane, which the French group took over last year. SocGen research analysts cover around 500 mostly European stocks, according to JPMorgan, compared with AllianceBernstein’s more international coverage of roughly 800 companies. Second, the venture makes the French bank’s equities business less reliant on derivatives and structured products, which led to heavy losses in 2020. Trading cash equities and selling research typically chews up much less capital and leads to fewer blow-ups. And the wider equities trading business is increasingly dominated by larger players, especially U.S. banks.

☆ SocGen profit tops forecast but France lags
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This photo, taken on October 28, 2019, shows the logo of the Societe Generale bank, in Ouistreham, Normandy, France. Societe Generale , France's third-biggest listed bank, joined European rivals in posting a higher than expected net income in the third quarter as market volatility boosted trading revenues. SocGen, which has appointed the head of its investment banking division as its new CEO from May 2023, said net income had come in at 1.5 billion euros ($1.46 billion)- well above a Refinitiv consensus forecast of 1 billion euros. The beat was driven by a 12% increase in Global Markets revenues, led by thriving trading in fixed income and currencies. The bank, which has seen a series of high-profile departures in recent weeks, said on Thursday it had appointed a new chief of risk.

☆ The dollar's blistering rally is almost over as support from US economic outperformance is fading, Societe Generale says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The rally in the US dollar this year is likely to be closer to an end and headed toward "trendless trading," Societe Generale said Thursday. The "drivers of economic outperformance are fading" for the greenback, which has risen to a 20-year high against key rivals. "So far, US rates have risen further and faster than elsewhere, on the back of economic out-performance," Kit Juckes, macro strategist at Societe Generale, said in a note. That means we are close to the end of the dollar's long rally and moving to a phase of trendless trading." As the Fed has tightened, climbing US Treasury yields relative to other sovereign bond yields has bolstered dollar demand among holders of other currencies.

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