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Yes, the S&P 500 is just off of all-time highs following a 36% percent rally from October to July. Major stock prices begin to perform poorly, which drags down the S&P 500 Index, which in turn causes the selling of the index. The index selling puts a drag on the largest-cap stocks, which adds more legs to the index selling." The S&P 500 is up 49% since late 2022 as bears have continued to warn of downside. AdvertisementSecond, lower interest rates would spark demand and could cause inflation to resurface, which would be good for oil stocks, Smead said.
Persons: , Smead doesn't, Smead, Warren, We're, Dow, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Stocks, LEN Organizations: Service, Business, Morningstar, Smead, Bank of America, Technology, Fund, Federal, Fed, DR, Occidental Petroleum, Apache
Bill Smead warns of poor long-term performance for stock indexes like the S&P 500. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Smead doesn't like the long-term outlook for big stock-market indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Despite their recent resilience and rallies to new highs, he said he sees a few red flags that could lead to poor performance for the broader market ahead.
Persons: Bill Smead, , Morningstar Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Business
The US housing market has dramatically slowed this year. This is because Smead sees a recession unfolding next year as his base case scenario, in which case mortgage rates would reverse. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes usually fall in a recession, as investors flock toward safehaven assets. "And you're more likely to get to 5.3% mortgage rates if you have a recession." Falling mortgage rates will raise affordability for prospective homebuyers, and will wake up demand that has been waiting on the sidelines for better buying conditions, he said.
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