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The stock market has always pulled back when valuations are stretched as they are now, according to Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen in a note to clients this week. "[T]urning points can happen quickly, and … when valuations are stretched to start with, there can be limited scope for further gains," Allen noted. "[E]xamples of high returns through history have often been followed by sizeable reversals." The bank cited lofty current readings in the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio developed by economist Robert Shiller, arguing that "the CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 has only been higher on two other occasions in the last century" than it is today. "Indeed, on both the occasions the CAPE ratio has got as high as it is today, there was then a significant correction."
Persons: Henry Allen, Allen, Robert Shiller, — Scott Schnipper Organizations: Deutsche Bank
Einhorn said he's not bearish, but there will likely be better entry points into the market. Add David Einhorn to the list of top Wall Streeters pointing out how expensive the stock market is. Advertisement"This is a really, really, really pricey environment, but it doesn't necessarily make me bearish. Einhorn called this "the most expensive market of all time, as far as I can see, at least since I've been managing." AdvertisementBank of AmericaEinhorn is one of many to highlight stock valuations as a factor likely to impact forward returns.
Persons: David Einhorn, Einhorn, he's, CNH Industrials, it's, I've, Bank of America Einhorn, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Rob Arnott, Nelson Peltz, CNH, that's, That's Organizations: Alpha, Delivering Alpha, Capital, Bank of America, Research, Trian Partners, AG
He said comparisons to the dot-com peak in 2000 are fair. Advertisement"This looks and feels like the year 2000 to me," Arnott told Business Insider on November 11. But Arnott believes AI optimism, which has driven the lion's share of the rally, is already fully priced in. At 37 times earnings, just below the late-2021 peak of 38, before the market fell by 25%, and the 2000 peak of 43, right in front of a 50% loss. "This is a really, really, really pricey environment, but it doesn't necessarily make me bearish.
Persons: Rob Arnott, he's, Arnott, , Donald Trump, Trump, disruptors, There's, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, David Einhorn, Einhorn Organizations: Nvidia, Intel, Chief US, Business, Goldman Sachs Bank of America's Global, Equity, Bank of America, CNBC's, Alpha Locations: irrelevance
Investors boosted stocks after Donald Trump won a second term. But investors shouldn't depart from their long-term investing plan, Morningstar's Dave Sekera says. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. But even as prices soar, it's important not to get caught up in the mania beyond your normal risk tolerance, warns Morningstar Senior US Market Strategist Dave Sekera. "The small-cap space, even with today's bump, it's still the most undervalued part of the market in our view," he said.
Persons: Donald Trump, shouldn't, Dave Sekera, , Morningstar, Sekera, Trump, aren't, Goldman Sachs, shouldn't overreact, John Rekenthaler, Joe Biden, That's, it's Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, White Locations: bullishness
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict relatively muted S&P 500 returns over the next decade. AdvertisementMuch has been said about the gloomy outlook for the S&P 500 that some of Wall Street's largest investment banks conveyed in recent weeks. Goldman Sachs said in October that the S&P 500 would return 3% annually, on average, over the next 10 years, underperforming current 10-year Treasury yields. Goldman Sachs"There is little argument that U.S. stock market valuations are elevated compared to historical averages. Investors appeared to do that, with the S&P 500 rising 0.4% on Friday to 5,728, 2.3% below all-time highs.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lance Roberts, Roberts, , It's, Goldman, Sam Kuhn Organizations: JPMorgan, RIA, Service, Bank of America, RIA Advisors, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Wall
That shortage also affects rent prices. In August, Harris unveiled a multi-pronged plan to lower housing costs. The plan also includes two main proposals to lower rent costs. Both plans to lower rent would be subject to congressional approval, meaning that the measures may be difficult to pass even if Harris wins the presidency. Unlike Harris, Trump has not rolled out a formal housing plan, but he has tied plans to deport undocumented immigrants to housing.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, “ It’s, , Jim Parrott, That’s, ” Parrott, Mario Tama, Freddie Mac, Harris, Trump, “ We’re, homeownership, SSRS, , Nick Pappas Organizations: CNN, Urban Institute, National Economic Council, SSRS, National Association of Realtors, Trump, Economic, of New, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Locations: Arizona , Nevada , Wisconsin , Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Los Angeles , California, America, of New York, Kansas
Investors will contend with earnings results from five of the Magnificent Seven companies next week. .SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 "I sort of refer to this period that we're in right now as like a strange brew," said Mark Malek, investment chief at Siebert. On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite hit an all-time high , but the S & P 500 snapped a six-week win streak. In fact, the high concentration of the mega-cap leaders in the S & P 500 spurred Goldman Sachs' David Kostin this month to release a dim long-term forecast for the overall market. HSBC head of equity strategy Nicole Inui upped her S & P 500 year-end target to 5,900.
Persons: Mark Malek, Siebert, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Siebert's Malek, they've, Nicole Inui, Inui, D.R Horton, Price, Eli Lilly, Lauder Organizations: Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Nasdaq, U.S, Treasury, Big Tech, HSBC, FactSet, Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed, Ford, Semiconductor, Caesars Entertainment, Devices, Pfizer, Royal Caribbean Group, PayPal, ADP, Kraft Heinz, Caterpillar, GE Healthcare Technologies, Holdings, ECI Civilian Workers, PCE, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, Cruise Line Holdings, Uber Technologies, Lauder Companies, Mastercard, Generac, Jobs, PMI, Manufacturing, Exxon Mobil Locations: U.S, Chicago
Economist David Rosenberg warns the stock market is in a "mega-bubble." The S&P 500 continues to register new highs and has climbed an incredible 23% so far this year. For investor positioning, here's household equity ownership as a percentage of assets as of the start of this year. Related storiesBy Rosenberg's measure, the S&P 500 is at least 25% higher than where fundamentals suggest it should be. AdvertisementSince then, the S&P 500 has risen to 5,864.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, , That's, it's, J.P, Morgan Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Federal Reserve
Grant said stocks could soon enter a period of weak returns, possibly for "many years." AdvertisementThe bull market in stocks looks like it's close to the top, according to an investment chief. AdvertisementSentiment and position indicators are also flashing signs investors are overexcited about the stock market, Grant said. The 3-month moving average of year-ahead stock market expectations has climbed to its highest on record, according to Conference Board data. That suggests there's little "cushion" in the event the stock market declines or experiences a shock, Grant said.
Persons: Michael Grant, Grant, , subpar, Morgan Organizations: Calamos Investments, Service, Conference, Board, Federal, Federal Reserve, Governors, Morgan Research, Bloomberg, Investors
US home prices hit yet another record high
  + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +1 min
US home prices hit another record in July, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. Prices rose 5% nationwide, a slowdown from prior months. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . New data from Case-Shiller showed home prices rose 5% in July from a year before, marking another record high.
Persons: , Brian D, Luke Organizations: Service, Business
The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 42,000 this week for the first time ever, while the S & P 500 breached the 5,700 milestone, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half-percentage point. "A lot holds in the balance of the next couple or few days," said Katie Stockton, founder at Fairlead Strategies. .SPX 5D mountain S & P 500 On Friday, the 30-stock Dow, the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite each closed higher by more than 1% for the week. The breakout is "'pending confirmation,'" Stockton said. Overall, Stockton expects that the longer-term setup for the S & P 500 is "a bit overdone."
Persons: Katie Stockton, Stockton, That's, Sam Stovall, Gee, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell, Stovall Organizations: Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Dow, Nasdaq, Stockton, CFRA, Fed, Chicago, PMI, Richmond Fed, New, Micron Technology, Transportation, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Costco Wholesale, PCE Deflator, PCE Locations: . Kansas, Michigan
Americans' net worth hit a record $163.8 trillion in Q2, driven by a surge in real estate and stock prices. Data from the Federal Reserve shows a nearly 2% increase In net worth from Q1, with real estate leading the gains. Record highs in Americans' net worth could drive a "wealth effect" that leads to the economy's continued resilience. AdvertisementNew data from the Federal Reserve reveals that Americans are the richest they've ever been. A $1.8 trillion increase in real estate valued and a $700 billion gain in stocks drove the increase.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, " Rosenberg, It's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, National, Census Locations: States
"Incredibly, the Fed raised rates 500 basis points under a false presumption — by over one million — of just how robust the jobs market was," Rosenberg said. AdvertisementIn addition to the yearly revisions, monthly payroll revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have also been poor more recently. Related storiesOne is a model that aims to enhance the yield curve as a recession indicator by taking into account US businesses' ability to repay debts and the Fed's National Financial Conditions Index. A soft-landing outcome, where the Fed avoids sending the economy into recession, is also still the consensus view on Wall Street. With inflation down under 3% and rate cuts almost surely on the way, such a scenario is still seemingly possible.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez, Vane, Chuck Prince, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Treasury, Pantheon, Labor Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia Wall Street is bullish heading into Nvidia's earnings results next week, figuring any hiccups to its next generation AI chips does little to dim the earnings potential of a company that essentially has a monopoly on the market. Economists polled by FactSet anticipate PCE to show increases of 0.2% month on month and 2.6% from the year-earlier period. Wall Street anticipates that stocks could go higher from here, though the road from now to the end of the year could be bumpy. Other notable earnings results include tech names Salesforce and CrowdStrike, as well as consumer names such as Campbell Soup, Dollar General and Ulta Beauty. Earnings: Nvidia , Bath & Body Works , J. M. Smucker , Salesforce , CrowdStrike , NetApp , HP Thursday Aug. 29 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Nvidia's, chipmaker, they've, Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler, Blackwell, Jensen Huang, Jim Cramer, Kumar, Louis Navellier, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Powell, FactSet, David Miller, Miller, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, He's, Campbell, Lululemon Organizations: Nvidia, Blackwell, Navellier, Associates, Federal Reserve, PCE, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, U.S, Catalyst Funds, Ulta, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, Body, HP, Autodesk, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Chicago, Michigan
Yes, the S&P 500 is just off of all-time highs following a 36% percent rally from October to July. Major stock prices begin to perform poorly, which drags down the S&P 500 Index, which in turn causes the selling of the index. The index selling puts a drag on the largest-cap stocks, which adds more legs to the index selling." The S&P 500 is up 49% since late 2022 as bears have continued to warn of downside. AdvertisementSecond, lower interest rates would spark demand and could cause inflation to resurface, which would be good for oil stocks, Smead said.
Persons: , Smead doesn't, Smead, Warren, We're, Dow, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Stocks, LEN Organizations: Service, Business, Morningstar, Smead, Bank of America, Technology, Fund, Federal, Fed, DR, Occidental Petroleum, Apache
Sellers are quickly "losing their grip" on the housing market, according to Capital Economics. That's because home prices are cooling, thanks to more inventory staying on the market. Still, the research firm is forecasting a 5% surge in home prices by the end of the year. That's because higher levels of inventory are starting to weigh on home prices, according to the research firm Capital Economics. It's starting to reverse a trend that's persisted for the past few years, with tight inventory pushing home prices to record highs.
Persons: Sellers, Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Business
On Friday, the tech-heavy S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended the week with losses, down 0.8% and 2.1%, respectively. However, the bulk of Magnificent Seven results is set for release in the week ahead. As it is, all seven of the Magnificent Seven companies closed out the week with losses. FOMC meeting, July jobs report Elsewhere, investors will also be reviewing the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision set for release on Wednesday. Traders will also get insight into the labor market next week, with the release of the July jobs report on Friday.
Persons: Russell, Ryan Grabinski, John Belton, Tesla, Belton, FactSet, Stanley Black, Decker, Lam, Kraft Heinz, Ingersoll Rand Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Microsoft, Facebook, Apple, Nvidia, 2H, 3Q, Gabelli, Traders, Dallas Fed, Semiconductor, Nation Entertainment, Electronic Arts, Starbucks, Match Group, Caesars Entertainment, Corning, Howmet Aerospace, Procter, Gamble, Pfizer, Merck, Co, PayPal, ADP, Civilian Workers, Chicago PMI, MGM Resorts International, Allstate, Lam Research, eBay, Qualcomm, Western, Cruise Line Holdings, Hess, Boeing, Mobile, Marriott International, GE Healthcare Technologies, Generac Holdings, Mastercard, Labor, PMI, Manufacturing, Intel, Holdings, Motorola Solutions, Technology, Air Products, Chemicals, Jobs, Exxon Mobil, Chevron Locations: Chicago, Albemarle, Kellanova, Hershey, Moderna
Though many Americans believe the housing market is at risk of crashing, the economists who study housing market conditions overwhelmingly do not expect a crash in 2024 or beyond. How low demand can cause a housing market crashA sudden drop in homebuying demand can lead to a housing market crash. What a housing market crash would mean for homebuyersAnything is possible, and nobody has a crystal ball to see for certain what will happen in the housing market in the coming months and years. Preparing for a potential housing market crashRight now, you probably don't need to be preparing for the housing market to crash. Housing market crash FAQsWhat are the key signs of an impending housing market crash?
Persons: homebuyers, Fannie Mae's, Lawrence Yun, Yun, isn't Organizations: Housing Survey, National Association of Realtors, Housing Locations: exurbs, Chevron
Roberto Schmidt | AFP | Getty ImagesIt's no secret that the housing market looks far different than it did a few years ago. While surging mortgage rates and housing prices have taken away consumers' purchasing power, low supply has kept the market competitive. A higher rate, in reality, results in more interest due on a home loan. Housing prices are also central to the equation for everyday Americans decision how much, or if, they can afford to spend. One from the National Association of Realtors found affordability tumbled more than 33% between 2021 and 2023 alone.
Persons: Roberto Schmidt, it's, Dow Organizations: AFP, Getty, Dow Jones, National Association of Realtors, Atlanta Federal, Atlanta Fed Locations: Clarksburg , Maryland
A double whammyFor aspiring homebuyers such as Burress, the combination of high mortgage rates and rising list prices has left them feeling boxed out. The 30-year mortgage rate, a popular option for home financing in the U.S., has bounced around 7% for the past several months. Given this, co-author Jonah Coste said current owners touting these low mortgage rates are undoubtedly better off than those looking to buy a first home today. After welcoming three kids, they're holding off on a fourth until mortgage rates or home prices come down enough to upsize. To be clear, mortgage rates tend to follow the path of Fed-set interest levels, but they aren't the same thing.
Persons: Brandon Bell, Rachel Burress, Burress, who've, that's, That's, Jonah Coste, there's, They're, Coste, they're, Luke Nunley, Nunley, We'd, Jeffrey Roach, LPL, Roach, hasn't, It's, Daryl Fairweather, Lindsey Nicholson Organizations: Getty, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve, Corcoran Realty, UCG Locations: Austin , Texas, Fort Worth , Texas, Aledo, U.S, Atlanta, Kentucky, Forest Hills, Queens , New York
Yet 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists are warning that Trump’s proposals wouldn’t just fail to fix inflation — they would make matters worse. “We the undersigned are deeply concerned about the risks of a second Trump administration for the US economy,” the economists wrote in the Tuesday letter, which was first reported by Axios. The letter, organized by famed economist Joseph Stiglitz, argued there are valid reasons to worry the Trump agenda will “reignite” inflation. Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at the Road to Majority conference in Washington, Saturday, June 22, 2024. Jae C. Hong/Pool/APIn the letter, the 16 Nobel economists expressed concern about the rule of law and stability if Trump wins the White House again.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Axios, Joseph Stiglitz, Trump’s, Manuel Balce Ceneta, Joe Biden, , Stiglitz, , Biden, Jae C, “ Donald Trump, Robert Shiller, Paul Romer, George Akerlof, Janet Yellen, Biden’s, Joe, Donald Trump’s, ” Karoline Leavitt, don’t, Harry Enten, Moody’s Organizations: CNN, Peterson Institute, Oxford Economics, Allianz, Republican, AP Trump, Congressional, Federal Reserve, Trump, World Bank, Biden, ABC, Voters Locations: Washington, China, U.S, Mexico, Nogales, Ariz
The S&P 500 could crash 48% when the bubble in stocks pops and a recession hits, Paul Dietrich said. The elite strategist pointed to a massively overvalued market and cracks in the economy. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 could be cut in half when the stock-market bubble pops and the US economy sinks into recession, Paul Dietrich says. He attributed that to institutional investors buying the haven asset as they expect a "major correction or stock market crash due to our wildly overvalued stock market and a slowing underling economy." The Wall Street veteran is one of several top forecasters predicting pain for stocks and a recession ahead.
Persons: Paul Dietrich, Dietrich, , Riley Wealth, Warren Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Nvidia, Federal Reserve, Wall
Here's how bad housing affordability is now
  + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Home prices set another record in April, even as mortgage rates rose and the supply of homes for sale increased. Usually, under those circumstances, prices would weaken, but today's housing market is unlike any other in recent history. The housing cost burden has hit a record, according to a new report from Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies. Housing supply was already low before the Covid pandemic hit, because homebuilders had yet to recover from the 2008 financial crisis. Then there was a pandemic-induced run on housing, causing supply to drop to record lows for several years.
Persons: Brian Luke, Dow, HJCH, homebuilders, Homebuilders couldn't, Orphe Divounguy Organizations: Mortgage News, Dow Jones, Harvard's, for Housing Studies
Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a joint letter Tuesday warning of what they see as economic risks if former President Donald Trump were to serve a second term, including reheated inflation. "While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden's economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump's," the economists wrote. "There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets," wrote the group of politically progressive academics. Joseph Stiglitz, who won the Nobel Prize in 2001, led the effort to publish Tuesday's letter. "Nonpartisan researchers, including at Evercore, Allianz, Oxford Economics, and the Peterson Institute, predict that if Donald Trump successfully enacts his agenda, it will increase inflation," the economists wrote.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe, Donald Trump's, Axios, Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, George Akerlof, Sir Angus Deaton, Claudia Goldin, Sir Oliver Hart, Eric Maskin, Daniel McFadden, Paul Milgrom, Roger Myerson, Edmund Phelps, Paul Romer, Alvin Roth, William Sharpe, Robert Shiller, Christopher Sims, Robert Wilson Organizations: Federal Reserve Board, Wall Street, Evercore, Allianz, Oxford Economics, Peterson Institute Locations: China
America’s housing crisis continues to worsen
  + stars: | 2024-06-23 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Washington CNN —Homeowners in America aren’t the only ones struggling with an unaffordable housing market. A report from Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies released last week showed that both homeowners and renters in recent years have become increasingly burdened by climbing housing costs. That’s all part of a broader struggle in the US housing market, and recent data shows that it hasn’t gotten any better. But there’s a problem: ChatGPT — soon to be integrated into Siri — is banned in China, reports my colleague Samantha Murphy Kelly. The Chicago Fed releases its National Activity Index for May.
Persons: ” Lael Brainard, , , Brainard, Biden, ” Brainard, ChatGPT —, Siri —, Samantha Murphy Kelly, OpenAI, Siri, ChatGPT, Read, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Michelle Bowman, General Mills, Levi Strauss, Tom Barkin Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN — Homeowners, America aren’t, Harvard University’s, for Housing Studies, Harvard, , White, Economic Council, Urban Institute, Administration, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Samsung, Cyberspace Administration, FedEx, Chicago Fed, Global, Index, Board, Micron, General, US Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Nike, McCormick, Walgreens, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Richmond Fed, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, America, Congress, China
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