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☆ CNBC's Inside India newsletter: What happens when the Fed cuts rates?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Historically, a rate cut has been a signal for central banks in emerging markets, like India, to follow by easing monetary policy in their regions. The latest data shows that the inflation rate appears to be heading in the wrong direction in India. The headline inflation rate rose in August to 3.65% compared to 3.6% in the previous month. Instead, markets have simply hit snooze on a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India for the moment. If there's no global recession, a risk-on sentiment will likely help push up emerging market equities in the medium term after the U.S. central bank cuts rates.

Persons: Shah, Mahesh Nandurkar, Surendra Goyal, CNBC's, BofA, Banks Organizations: Federal, Reserve Bank of India, Reserve Bank, Capital Economics, India, greenback, Federal Reserve, Jefferies, Bank of America, Citi, India Research, Bank Locations: India, U.S

☆ Middle-class Americans are falling behind
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Middle-class income growth has lagged behind that of the upper class since 1970, according to a Pew Research Center report published May 31. There are signs that middle-class Americans are dialing back their spending. Fast food joints, a mainstay dining destination for middle-income consumers, are leaning into discounts to placate frustrated diners. Kohl’s that same month reported weak first-quarter results, underlining how middle-income consumers are pulling back spending on non-essential clothing and discretionary merchandise at department stores. Economic growth has been anemic in recent years, squeezing living standards and starving public services of funds.

Persons: ”, Jennifer Jones Austin, Thomas Kingsbury, Narendra Modi, Diksha Madhok, Peeyush Mittal, Modi, ” Shilan Shah, ” Read, Hanna Ziady, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, Keir Starmer, Tony Blair, Starmer Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Pew Research, Living Coalition, Data, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Matthews Asia, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Capital Economics, Conservative Party of, European Union, Labour Party, National Health Service, Labour, Conservative Party Locations: New York, India’s, India, United Kingdom, China, San Francisco, Beijing, Washington, Ukraine

☆ India’s economic boom won’t be derailed by its election shock
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Diksha Madhok | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New Delhi CNN —Narendra Modi has declared victory in India’s election but he’ll need the support of smaller parties to govern, a shock result that could make it harder for him to pass major economic reforms. Experts have highlighted land reform as an example of policies that might now be tougher for Modi to implement. India will need to address those issues if it is to capitalize on the massive rethink underway among companies on supply chains. Despite the surprise electoral setback for Modi’s right-wing, Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), experts say the world’s fastest growing major economy will continue to live up to its billing. The party’s underperformance led to a plunge on India’s stock market, which had its worst day in four years Tuesday.

Persons: New Delhi CNN — Narendra Modi, ”, Peeyush Mittal, Modi, ” Shilan Shah, underperformance, Aditya Suresh, Shah, Malcolm Dorson, It’s Organizations: New, New Delhi CNN, Matthews Asia, Apple, Foxconn, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Capital Economics, Investors, Macquarie Capital, Unified Locations: New Delhi, United Kingdom, India, China, San Francisco, Beijing, Washington, United States, Western

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi flashes victory sign at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters to celebrate the party's win in country's general election, in New Delhi on June 4, 2024. Completed vote counts by the Election Commission of India showed that Modi's BJP won just 240 seats. India's Parliament has 543 seats, and the party or coalition that wins at least 272 forms the government. Modi's decade-long ruleUnder Modi, India, home to 1.4 billion people, has witnessed robust economic growth. While India has seen robust economic growth under Modi, observers and critics have warned about the country's "democratic decline."

Persons: Narendra Modi, Money Sharma, Modi, Aiyar, CNBC's, Shilan Shah, Shah, Kranthi, Sensex, Samir Kapadia, that's, Malcolm Dorson Organizations: India's, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Afp, Getty, Indian, Modi's BJP, National Democratic Alliance, Developmental Inclusive Alliance, Indian National Congress, Policy Research, Centre, Monitoring, Capital Economics, BSE, WealthMills Securities, Adani, Adani Enterprises, State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, Monetary Fund, India Index, Vogel, Dem, Global, Vogel Group, IMF Locations: New Delhi, India, INDIA, China, Sweden

☆ CNBC's Inside India newsletter: Will AI make or break India?
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

But one that could foreshadow India's growth story. Can Teleperformance's stock plunge be the canary in the coal mine for what is likely to happen to India because of AI? But it's likely to be a blip for India's growth trajectory, given the macro forces at play. Besides creating jobs that are less likely to be immediately disrupted by AI, India could also be a net beneficiary of artificial intelligence. The Indian stock market indexes, Sensex and Nifty 50 , are heading for a positive week again — up by 1% and 1.2%, respectively.

Persons: Findlay Kember, Klarna, ChatGPT, K Krithivasan, Krithivasan, Narendra Modi, It's, Shilan Shah, Goldman Sachs, Vinay Dwivedi, Ashok Gulati, Nomura, League Pickleball, Karine Jean, Pierre, Jerome Powell, Raghuram Rajan, Ashish Jain, CNBC's Ayushi Jindal Organizations: AFP, Getty, India's Tata Consultancy Services, Financial Times, TCS, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, University of Oxford, Capital Economics, Investment, Nomura, Qualcomm, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing, UPI, India, Commission, Agricultural, United Pickleball Association, Global Sports, PPA, League, Washington Post, White, U.S ., Federal, CNBC, Reserve Bank of India, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Swedish, Paris, India, Chennai, U.S, Europe, China, Singapore, South Korea, Canada, United States

☆ India rate panel to dial up hawkishness even as it holds policy steady
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Swati Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A woman walks past the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo inside its headquarters in Mumbai, India, April 6, 2023. A July 13-31 Reuters poll of 75 economists showed the central bank was expected to keep its repo rate unchanged at 6.50% at its Aug. 10 policy meeting. The rise in food prices, however, has been sharper than expected this year and is seen lasting longer. The MPC at its June policy meeting also reiterated its intent of nudging inflation towards its medium-term target of 4% and not just holding it below 6%. "It will also possibly emphasise a larger need to be watchful of the second-round effects of high food prices and inflation expectations."

Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, Shah, Pankaj Pathak, Swati Bhat, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, REUTERS, MPC, Capital Economics, DBS Bank, DBS, ANZ, U.S, Fed, AMC, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, MUMBAI

The case for investing in India — a nation of 1.4 billion — is clear, and only bolstered by recent geopolitical shifts. As Western leaders look to boost economic cooperation with countries that share similar values, India, the world’s largest democracy, stands to gain. Arun Sankar/AFP/Getty ImagesIndia’s so-called “demographic dividend,” the potential economic growth arising from a large working-age population, represents a major opportunity. A recent Air India order for more than 200 Boeing planes could support more than 1 million American jobs. One consistent with our democratic values, and another not.”‘Economic miracle?’Beyond geopolitics, India’s economic and demographic fundamentals are driving business interest.

☆ Instant View: Here’s what experts think of India's surprise rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

The monetary policy committee (MPC) retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50% in a unanimous decision. With the likely softening of CPI to the low- to mid-5% levels in the coming month, the current repo rate of 6.5% implies that India’s real policy rate will hover around 1% during 2023-24, while maintaining a policy rate differential of about 1.5% with the US. Room for additional rate hikes has been retained with MPC’s policy stance continuing to remain unchanged at ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. We believe the bar for future rate hikes has increased, especially since near-term prints of CPI will be sub 6%. Scope for further hikes is limited given our growth-inflation outlook and impact of the past rate hikes on the same.

☆ Weak global demand, rate hikes may curtail India growth, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The slowdown in growth seen in last quarter of 2022 could continue and erode the 6.4% growth for the fiscal year through March 2024 estimated by the central bank, economists warned, ahead of the release of India's GDP data on Tuesday. The sharp fall in year-on-year growth rate is partly due to a fading of pandemic-induced base effect which had contributed towards higher growth figures in fiscal 2021/22, economists said. He expects the economy to grow at a weaker-than-consensus 4.3% year-on-year in the quarter through December 2022. At least two members of India's six-member monetary policy committee have called for a pause in rate hikes, citing rising global and local risks to growth. The central bank, however, remains focused on above-target inflation as high-frequency indicators suggests that stronger rural demand may help offset weaker urban consumption.

India's annual retail inflation rate (INCPIY=ECI) rose to 6.52% in January from 5.72% in December, government data showed on Monday. January's retail inflation was above the Reserve Bank of India's upper targeted limit of 6% for the first time since October and much higher than the 5.9% estimate, according to a Reuters poll of 44 analysts. Food price inflation, which accounts for nearly 40% of the consumer price index (CPI) basket, rose to 5.94% in January from 4.19% in December. STICKY CORE INFLATIONIndia's core inflation in January was nearly flat at 6.09% to 6.10% from last month, according to two economists. "We expect core inflation to remain elevated in Feb-March given the ongoing pass-through of higher input costs by producers," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA.

☆ India's economic growth outlook stagnates, stuck in lower gear
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

It was expected to decelerate further to 4.4% in the fourth quarter, according to an Oct. 13-19 Reuters poll. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe median expectation was for 6.9% growth in the 2022-23 fiscal year, slightly above International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank projections of 6.8%. While those figures were only trimmed from the previous poll medians, a deteriorating global economic outlook suggests there may be further downgrades in coming months. "This, we believe, will result in the RBI having to shift its focus toward supporting growth and away from anchoring inflation expectations by engineering a growth slowdown." The poll showed the RBI taking a softer approach with rates.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee hits record low on worries of aggressive U.S. rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

read moreThe partially convertible rupee was trading at 83.16/17 per dollar by 0436 GMT, compared to its close of 83.02 on Wednesday. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"We can expect the dollar to continue strengthening as long as the Fed maintains its super hawkish stance. read moreTraders said the falling interest rate differential between India and the U.S. could continue to pressure the rupee. Shilan Shah, India economist at Capital Economics, said in a recent note that 50 bps rate hikes may be off-the-table at the RBI's meeting in early December. "We think other MPC members will have seen enough evidence of growth coming off the boil and price pressures peaking.

☆ India's retail inflation rate likely peaked in September - analysts
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - India's consumer price-led inflation is expected to gradually decelerate after September, helped by a fall in commodity prices and easing food inflation, analysts said. India's annual retail inflation accelerated to a five-month high of 7.41% in September from 7% in the previous month, data released on Wednesday showed. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly 40% of the CPI basket, rose 8.60% in September, compared to 7.62% in August. However, helped partially by easing global commodity prices, India's inflation rate should moderate from here, likely reaching "a tad below" the 6% mark by February or March, Morgan Stanley said in a note. Credit Suisse said that the October inflation rate will likely be 1% lower given a higher base, especially for food prices.

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