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☆ China's gasoline demand peak nears as EV boom hastens transition
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Mohi Narayan | Thomson Reuters | Reports On Everything How Asia S Fuel Use Recovers The Fallout Of To Tracking How The Global Energy Transition Impacts Refinery Expansion Plans | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and consultancy Rystad Energy have brought forward forecasts of China's peak gasoline demand by about a year to 2024, while Chinese state majors PetroChina and Sinopec (600028.SS) see it in 2025. The earlier halt in gasoline demand growth in the world's No. Reuters GraphicsAs a result of accelerating EV sales, Paris-based IEA now expects Chinese gasoline demand to peak in 2024 at about 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd), bringing forward an earlier projection of demand plateauing in 2025/2026. The research arm of China's state refiner CNPC expects gasoline demand to peak in 2025, citing accelerating sales of EVs, and sees gasoline demand shrinking 2.3% annually between 2026 and 2030. China's massive move into petrochemicals is already causing a glut globally, prompting companies to shift investments to high-end energy transition materials.

Persons: Aly, refiners, Toril Bosoni, EV's, Gaurav Batra, Mukesh Sahdev, Ma Yongsheng, Mohi Narayan, Carman Chew, Matthew Chye, Chen Aizhu, Zoey Zhang, Andrew Hayley, Florence Tan, Sonali Paul Organizations: Porsche, Auto Shanghai, REUTERS, International Energy Agency, Rystad Energy, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Reuters Graphics, Reuters, China, Shenghong Petrochemical, Energy, Graphics, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Jan, Sinopec, Asia, Reuters Graphics China, Paris, U.S, North America, India, Sun, New Delhi, Singapore, Beijing

New capacity in China is expected to make up more than half of that growth, according to the International Energy Agency. Reuters GraphicsIn 2023, WoodMac sees China's output growth creating a local surplus of 4.24 million metric tons of ethylene and an even bigger oversupply of propylene at 8.69 million metric tons. Reuters GraphicsMARKET SHARE BATTLENewly launched refinery complexes by state giant PetroChina's (601857.SS) Guangdong Petrochemical and privately-run Jiangsu Shenghong Petrochemical have added to surging petrochemical supply from mega refiners Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp and Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SS) that has come online in recent years. Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ) and Hengyi Petrochemical (000703.SZ) swung to net losses in the first quarter. While Chinese demand from some sectors such as inexpensive clothing and daily essentials is robust, other sectors such as automative have yet to recover in line with expectations, said Salmon Lee, global head of polyesters at consultancy WoodMac.

Persons: Chen, refiners, China's, Wood Mackenzie, WoodMac, Ganesh Gopalakrishnan, TotalEnergies's, Salmon Lee, Lee, Mohi Narayan, Andrew Hayley, Matthew Chye, Florence Tan, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, International Energy Agency, Reuters Graphics, Guangdong Petrochemical, Jiangsu Shenghong Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp, Hengli Petrochemical, Sinopec, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Thomson Locations: Dalian, Liaoning province, China, Asia, Europe, U.S, Guangdong, Jiangsu, China's, New Delhi, Beijing

LAUNCESTON, Australia, March 28 (Reuters) - China's crude oil imports will average 10.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, matching the previous record high from 2020, according to the think tank of the country's leading energy group. What is interesting with the ETRI forecasts is that they would seem to show that China's refiners are still expecting to add crude oil to stockpiles over 2023. This is some 370,000 bpd more than the ETRI forecast for refinery throughput of 14.66 million bpd. China's crude oil imports seen rebounding to new high in 2023NEW REFINERIESIt's likely that some of the oil heading for storage will go to build working inventories for new plants expected to be commissioned this year. Flows in, or indeed out of, either commercial or strategic reserves are the biggest X-factor for China's crude oil imports.

☆ China's oil refinery runs fall for first year since 2001
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Chen Aizhu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Refiners processed 675.9 million tonnes of crude oil last year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Tuesday, or about 13.5 million barrels per day (bpd). This is just down from 14.5 million bpd in November and the record of 14.8 million bpd in June 2021. Fourth-quarter refined fuel exports, including diesel, gasoline, aviation fuel and marine fuel oil, surged 61% over a year-ago period to 18.3 million tonnes. Crude oil production remained firmly above the 4 million bpd mark, a level regarded by the state-dominated sector as strategic to ensure domestic supply security, as companies stepped up developing more challenging reservoirs. Last year's output was up 2.9% from 2021 at 204.67 million tonnes, or 4.1 million bpd, with December output up 2.5% on the year at 16.87 million tonnes.

The increased output could also cool prices for other oil products, especially for gasoline, and dampen overall refining margins. Half of the increase, though, will still come from Asia's biggest refiner Sinopec (600028.SS), one of them said, as it raises output to produce more diesel and raise fuel exports. So the mandate from the headquarters is to boost diesel production to supply the domestic market and also to raise exports," one of the Sinopec sources said. Further boosting supply, China's largest private refiner Zhejiang Petroleum and Chemical Co (ZPC) is raising diesel output by cutting petrochemical production. Lockdowns have become more frequent and China's borders remain mostly shut, hurting domestic gasoline and aviation fuel sales.

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