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☆ How Democrats can still flex power in Trump's Washington: From the Politics Desk
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( The Politics Desk | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +11 min

In today’s edition, senior national political reporter Sahil Kapur examines the way Democrats can still exert some power in Donald Trump's Washington. How Democrats can still flex power in Trump’s WashingtonBy Sahil KapurRepublicans have won full control of Washington, but Democrats will retain two key levers of power to shape legislative outcomes in Donald Trump’s second term. That margin is slimming further as Trump plucks House members for administration jobs. The last two years showed how chaotic and dysfunctional this GOP-controlled House can be, even when the stakes are low. The Ethics Committee has jurisdiction over only sitting House members.

Persons: Sahil Kapur, Donald, Donald Trump's Washington, Matt Gaetz's, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Donald Trump’s, Robert Garcia, “, Sen, John Thune, ”, Chris Van Hollen, Van Hollen, Patty Murray, Richard Hudson, Trump, Donald Trump, it’s, it’ll, Tony Gonzales, Matt Gaetz, Ryan Nobles, Julie Tsirkin, Frank Thorp V, Kate Santaliz, Gaetz, Justice Department —, they’ll, Joni Ernst, John Curtis, → Trump, Berkeley Lovelace Jr, Dasha Burns Trump, Kennedy, Bill Cassidy, Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Hegseth, Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy’s, 🗞️, Tim, lea Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Republicans, Health, Human Services Department, Sahil Kapur Republicans, Trump plucks, ”, Republican, Senate, GOP, House Republican, Justice Department, NBC News, Committee, Punchbowl News, RFK, Human Services, Department of Health, Food and Drug Administration, Education, Labor, Pensions, “ RFK, Trump, Elon, of Government, Cabinet Locations: Donald Trump's, Trump’s Washington, Washington, “, Texas, Florida, Congress, Iowa, Utah, Elon, usk

NEW YORK CITY — The FBI seized a cellphone and other electronic devices of betting site Polymarket’s CEO Shayne Coplan in a raid on his New York City apartment early Wednesday, according to a source familiar with the matter. The search comes shortly after the company’s markets wagered correctly and controversially in Donald Trump’s favor in bets for who would win the presidential election, despite opinion polls showing a tight race. The source said it’s not clear if Coplan or Polymarket are targets of an investigation. Polymarket, which Coplan founded in 2020, has recently been the subject of intense debate and scrutiny over its creation of election betting markets. The company brought in more than $3.6 billion from bets placed on the presidential election, including $1.5 billion on Trump and $1 billion on Vice President Kamala Harris, according to an NBC News analysis.

Persons: Shayne Coplan, Donald Trump’s, Coplan, “, Kamala Harris, Polymarket, Biden, ” Coplan, ” Shayne Coplan, Matthew Reeves, ” Nicholas Biase Organizations: FBI, New, Trump, NBC, Futures Trading Commission, NBC News, Polymarket, U.S Attorney’s Office, of Locations: New York City, cryptocurrency, Polymarket, Chicago, Southern, of New York

☆ Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan attacks Biden and Harris after FBI raid
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Lloyd Lee | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The FBI raided Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan's home on Wednesday, a company spokesperson said. A company spokesperson told Business Insider the raid took place at Shayne Coplan's Manhattan home Wednesday morning, without elaborating. Related Video Why Sam Bankman-Fried is facing up to 110 years in prisonSoon after the raid, Coplan, 26, posted on X: "New phone, who dis?" The Polymarket spokesperson said the raid was an act of "political retribution" by the Biden administration against a "fully transparent prediction market." AdvertisementA Biden administration spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

Persons: Shayne Coplan's, Polymarket, —, Donald Trump's, Sam Bankman, Chainalysis, Coplan, CNBC's, Peter Thiel's, Vitalik Buterin, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Elon, Trump, Biden Organizations: FBI, Bloomberg, Service, Polymarket, Shayne Coplan's Manhattan, Department of Justice, Futures Trading Commission, Traders, Trump, Fund, Apple Locations: Coplan, France, American

☆ Polymarket and Kalshi Predicted Trump's Win. Now Comes the Hard Part.
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( Amanda Hoover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Days before the election, Polymarket odds showed Trump had a 60% chance of winning. The electorate took notice: Kalshi and Polymarket soared to the top of Apple's App Store on Tuesday evening. Advertisement"Last night, Kalshi showed how prediction markets can decisively outperform polls and traditional media," Kalshi posted on X. And can the prediction markets ride their momentum now that the election's over? Prediction markets are "going to attract people who want to influence public perception," Broughel says.

Persons: Nate Silver, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Polymarket, Trump, Kalshi, Shayne Coplan, Coplan, Elon Musk, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, Robinhood, There's, Xavier Sottile, Bettors, Sottile, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, he'll, John F, Kennedy, Koleman Strumpf, Strumpf, Broughel, James Broughel, Israel —, — Polymarket, who've Organizations: Trump, CNBC, MIT, Victoria University, Wake Forest University, RFK Jr, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Wall Street Journal, Twitter, New York Times Locations: New Zealand, Kalshi, Ukraine, Iran

☆ Billions were bet on election odds using online markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-09 | by ( Bruna Horvath | Bruna Horvath Is An Intern On Nbc News' Tech Team. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +3 min

Election betting platforms brought in billions of dollars as users around the world wagered on who would win Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election, according to an NBC News analysis of betting platforms. Michigan and Georgia followed close behind, and the rest of the swing states were all in the top 15 states with the highest trading volume. On both Polymarket and Kalshi, bets on swing states alone made up around half of the total trading volume on state outcomes. One Polymarket bettor, who identified himself as “Théo” in an interview with The Washington Post, had bet over $28 million on Trump winning the presidential election using multiple betting accounts. “Théo” had put money down on all the swing states, according to Polymarket’s analytics.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Eric Zitzewitz, “ There’s, Will, ” Zitzewitz, bettor, “, Théo ”, Polymarket, Shayne Coplan, “ Théo, Zitzewitz Organizations: U.S, NBC, Dartmouth University, Republicans, Alabama, Democrats, California, Washington Post, Trump, Futures Trading Commission, Bloomberg Locations: Pennsylvania, Kalshi . Michigan, Georgia, U.S, America

☆ How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The basic theory behind prediction markets is that a lot of people with money on the line can better predict an outcome than any one expert. “Financial markets are generally pretty efficient, and the evidence suggests that the same is true of prediction markets,” Eric Zitzewitz, an economics professor at Dartmouth, tells me. The shares trade between $0 and $1, and once the event is resolved, shares tied to the correct outcome pay out a dollar. If you bought Trump shares on Monday, when they were 58 cents, you can expect to make 42 cents on the dollar. Later that fall, the popular betting market PredictIt gave Hillary Clinton an 82% chance of beating Donald Trump.

Persons: CNN Business ’, pollsters, Donald Trump’s, Trump, Kamala Harris, PredictIt, Eric Zitzewitz, “, aren’t, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, You’re, Shayne Coplan, Harris, Coplan, ” Zitzewitz, ”, “ Brexit, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Clinton, Nate Silvers, Ann Selzers, FiveThirtyEight Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wednesday, “, Dartmouth, Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, Trump, Bloomberg, CNBC, European Union Locations: New York, America, United Kingdom

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Polymarket CEO Shayne CoplanPolymarket CEO Shayne Coplan joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the prediction market, its impact on the 2024 election, influence of the 'Trump whale', the role of prediction market vs. traditional polls, and more.

Persons: Shayne Coplan

☆ Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan: We were the first destination to project Trump's election victory
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPolymarket CEO Shayne Coplan: We were the first destination to project Trump's election victoryPolymarket CEO Shayne Coplan joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the prediction market, its impact on the 2024 election, influence of the 'Trump whale', the role of prediction market vs. traditional polls, and more.

Persons: Shayne Coplan

☆ Polymarket plans U.S. return after signaling Trump election win, founder says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Jacqueline Corba | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Online election betting platform Polymarket plans to bring its prediction markets back to customers in the United States, on the heels of accurately forecasting the electoral win of President-elect Donald Trump. "I want to give a lot of credit to the people who fought the battle to go and legalize political prediction markets in America," Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan told Andrew Ross Sorkin on "Squawk Box," in his first live TV interview Thursday. Polymarket's betting platforms are currently only available to customers outside of the United States. In 2022, it halted U.S. operations and paid a $1.4 million penalty to settle charges with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that it had failed to register with the commission. In October, the U.S. Appeals Court for the District of Columbia Circuit lifted a freeze on competitor Kalshi's election contracts that was put on by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.

Persons: Donald Trump, Shayne Coplan, Andrew Ross Sorkin, Patricia Millett, Kalshi, Robinhood, Thomas Peterffy Organizations: Futures Trading Commission, Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit, Commodities Futures Trading Commission, Interactive Locations: United States, America, U.S

The social media ads have flooded platforms including Facebook, Instagram and X. One advertisement — viewed more than 900,000 times on Facebook and Instagram since Oct. 28 — depicts Trump winning in the Polymarket odds, according to the Meta Ad Library. A separate sponsored campaign from the right-wing social media personality Shaneyy Richh included nine advertisements promoting Polymarket forecasts. Based on user bets, Polymarket says Trump’s odds of winning are roughly 65.5% and Harris’s odds of winning are 34.5% as of Oct. 31. The company has also used social media to promote election betting, spending over $140,000 on Meta ads, according to the company's ad library.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Kamala Harris, isn’t, Shayne Coplan, Trump, Harris, Shaneyy Richh, pollsters, ”, Elon, Polymarket, “ Trump, ” Claudio Vallejo, They’re, “, ” Polymarket, Coplan, we’ve, I’ve, ” Trump, “ Polymarket, that’s, Musk, ” John Fortier, “ It’s, you’re, Fortier, “ I’m Organizations: ”, Facebook, Trump, Meta Ad, “, Polymarket, United, Commodity, U.S, NBC, American Enterprise Institute Locations: California , New York, Texas, United States, U.S, Michigan

☆ Polymarket's pro-Trump election predictions aren't so surprising when you look at the rest of the site
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Katie Notopoulos | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The betting site Polymarket has emerged as a hot topic in the 2024 presidential race. Wagers in its pop culture section show the bro-y vibe of the site: Zyn, Andrew Tate, and Hawk Tuah. Let's look at some of the wagers:Will Trump say "skibidi" before the election? Will Donald Trump say "mog" in 2024? AdvertisementFor the record, I think the odds that Trump will say "skibidi" before the election are way too low.

Persons: Trump, Andrew Tate, Hawk, —, Will Trump, Will Kamala Harris, Joe Rogan's, Will Donald Trump, Roaring Kitty, Logan Paul, Max Read, Joe Rogan, Gen Z'ers, MAGA, Theo Von, Adin Ross, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, Shayne Coplan, There's, Polymarket, haven't, I'm, who's, John Herrman, McDonald's Organizations: Service, Trump, New, New York Magazine, Harris, Dodgers, Yankees Locations: MrBeast

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