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The CEO of Swiss banking giant UBS said Thursday that the fight against inflation isn't over yet, and some investors seem to be getting too ahead of themselves in expecting that the U.S. Federal Reserve could pull an aggressive rate cut this month. "I think the market seems to be a little bit too ahead of the curve in expecting the Fed to go so aggressively," Sergio Ermotti, Group CEO of UBS Group AG, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia." The question of whether the Fed will lower rates at the end of its next policy meeting September 18 has largely been answered. The only question that remains is: by how much. The "most important" issue that the Fed needs consider is still inflation, which remains sticky and not yet "totally under control," Ermotti added.
Persons: Sergio Ermotti, CNBC's, Ermotti Organizations: UBS, U.S . Federal, UBS Group AG, Fed Locations: U.S
Japanese wages are expected to grow in real terms in the second half of 2024 for the first time in more than three decades, according to Asset Management One. Wages in Japan are rising more rapidly than they did in 2023, the investment management firm noted in a recent report. Japanese real wages in July rose 0.4% year on year, rising for a second consecutive month after a 1.1% rise in June. Asset Management One economists anticipate regular wages likely maintained this rate of growth this summer, despite recent volatility in the yen and Japanese equities. "The past three decades in Japan have been defined by minimal price inflation and negligible wage growth," said Yuko Iizuka, economist at Asset Management One.
Persons: Yuko Iizuka, Iizuka Organizations: Management, Asset Management Locations: Japan
A 7-Eleven convenience store, operated by Seven & i Holdings Co., in Kawasaki, Japan, on Monday, Aug. 19, 2024. The FTC was concerned that the companies' defense attorneys were advising them to get rid of documents linked to the potential merger ahead of antitrust investigations, Reuters reported. In June, the FTC and the Justice Department launched antitrust investigations into Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia. Other recent antitrust investigations include cases against Amazon and Google. Seven & i revealed that Couche-Tard had offered to acquire all outstanding shares of Seven & i for $14.86 per share.
Persons: Canada's Alimentation, Tard, Tokutaka Ito, O Shearman, Ito, — CNBC's Lim Hui Jie Organizations: Seven, Holdings Co, Holdings, U.S . Federal Trade Commission, Reuters, FTC, Justice Department, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Google, CNBC Locations: Kawasaki, Japan, Asia, .
SINGAPORE — Global markets are severely overplaying an oil supply glut, said Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at private equity giant Carlyle. China's crude oil imports in 2023 had notched a record high. China's oil demand has been declining on the back of a slump in industrial inputs, according the International Energy Agency. On the supply side, black oil production in the U.S., one of the world's top crude oil producers, has been "flat" this year, Currie said. Black oils include crude oil, fuel oil, furnace oil, asphalt and tar.
Persons: Currie, Jeff Currie, Carlyle, I've, Energean Organizations: Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, SINGAPORE —, International Energy Agency, Reuters Locations: Stanton , Texas, Singapore, SINGAPORE, APPEC, U.S, Egypt, Italy, Croatia
But the country could see growth pick up this fall, Goldman Sachs' chief China economist says. Hui Shan pointed to fiscal easing, strong export momentum, and subsiding weather-related risks. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementAfter a long downturn, China's economy may be poised for a turnaround, Goldman Sachs says. Goldman's chief China economist Hui Shan pointed to fiscal easing, strong export momentum, and subsiding weather-related risks as reasons to believe the country's fortunes could soon change.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan, , Shan Organizations: Service, Business Locations: China
People walk past the logo of Samsung Electronics in Seoul on July 7, 2022. Global semiconductor and associated stocks fell on Wednesday, following a steep plunge in Nvidia's share price in the U.S. overnight. In the U.S., chipmaker Nvidia plunged more than 9% in regular trading, leading semiconductor stocks lower amid a sell-off on Wall Street. Around $279 billion of value was wiped off of Nvidia on Tuesday, in the biggest one-day market capitalization drop for a U.S. stock in history. Nvidia's value chain extends to South Korea, namely, memory chip maker SK Hynix and conglomerate Samsung Electronics.
Organizations: Samsung Electronics, Samsung Electronics Co, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Department of Justice, Facebook, SK Hynix Locations: Seoul, South, U.S, South Korea
Evans pointed to signs of the economy slowing down, including what he called the "deteriorating" U.S. labor market. The Fed funds futures market suggests that investors are expecting at least three rate cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "A few rate cuts are not going to prevent a recession. Average recession is 10 months… It takes something like a year before fed cuts actually start to give a boost to the economy," he said. "The market believes that the fed fund rate at the end of next year will be 3%.
Persons: Garry Evans, Evans, It's, Jerome Powell, isn't Organizations: BCA Research, . Federal, BCA Research's, U.S . Labor Department, Traders Locations: U.S, Jackson
Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced Wednesday he will not be running in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election due next month. He added that he felt the need to step down in order for the LDP to regain the public's trust. The prime minister also pledged to fully support the new leader. Kishida's decision to not run for reelection effectively means he would step down as prime minister when the party elects a new leader. According to the latest opinion poll by NHK, the number of people who "support" the Kishida cabinet stands at 25%, while 55% do not.
Persons: Fumio Kishida, Kishida Organizations: Japan's, Liberal Democratic, LDP, Kyodo, NHK
Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks to reporters following North Korea's missile launch on April 13, 2023. JIJI Press | AFP | Getty ImagesJapanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is stepping down in September, a move that sparked a broad range of reactions from government officials and analysts. Still, Izumi thanked Kishida for his hard work, adding "Prime Minister Kishida, you must have been under a lot of pressure." "The prime minister is a true friend of the United States and Japan has become a true global partner for America," U.S. "I pay tribute to my friend Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
Persons: Fumio Kishida, Japan's, Kishida, Joe Biden, he's, William Pesek, Biden, Izumi, Japan Rahm Emanuel, Kishida's, Emanuel, Anthony Albanese, Japan Shihab Alfaheem, Amir Anvarzadeh Organizations: Japan's, JIJI Press, AFP, Getty, Liberal Democratic Party, Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, LDP, Japan, America, U.S, Alliance, Australian, Asymmetric Advisors Locations: United States, Japan, Australia
China’s Great Wall of Villages
  + stars: | 2024-08-10 | by ( Muyi Xiao | Agnes Chang | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +14 min
China’s Great Wall of Villages China has moved thousands of people to new settlements on its frontiers. Mr. Akester and Mr. Barnett, who have studied Tibet’s border villages for years, reviewed The Times’s findings. In neighboring Xinjiang and Yunnan, The Times identified six new and 59 expanded border villages. (China says there are hundreds of villages like them, but few details are available and many appear to be mere upgrades of existing villages.) A Times investigation found 12 villages in disputed areas Disputed areas Villages in disputed areas Other villages CHINA CHINA TIBET Arunachal Pradesh Controlled by India Claimed by China BHUTAN INDIA MYANMAR 50 miles CHINA CHINA TIBET Arunachal Pradesh Controlled by India Claimed by China BHUTAN MYANMAR INDIA 75 miles Source: RAIC Labs and The Times analysis of Planet Labs satellite imageryChina makes clear that the villages are there for security.
Persons: , Xi Jinping, Bhutan Gyalaphug, Tian Shan Wang, Matthew Akester, Robert Barnett, Akester, Barnett, India Demchok, ” Mr, Xi’s, Brahma Chellaney, Mr, Chellaney, Liu Pengyu, Brian Hart, India Migyitun, Jing Qian, Tenzin, Organizations: Daily, New York Times, RAIC Labs, Planet Labs, The Times, SOAS University of London, India, China United Front News Network, Times, , Embassy, Local, Planet Labs India, China Power, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Maxar, Center for, Asia Society, Communist Party, Human Rights Watch Locations: China, India, Beijing, Arunachal Pradesh, Tibet, Bhutan, Nepal, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Tajikistan Fumin, Aimin, Vietnam, Luozha county, Shannan, Tibet Autonomous, Fumin, Xinjiang, Yunnan, China’s, CHINA CHINA TIBET Arunachal Pradesh, China BHUTAN INDIA MYANMAR, China BHUTAN MYANMAR INDIA, New Delhi, South China, Washington, ” India, Ladakh, Times, , Center for China, Central Asians, Dokha
China's pet population will be close to double that of its young children by 2030 as young Chinese remain unwilling to start new families, Goldman Sachs said in a recent note. The country's urban pet population is set to hit over 70 million by the end of the decade, while the number of children four and under will dwindle to less than 40 million, according to Goldman Sachs research that cited data from the National Bureau of Statistics. In 2017, the situation was just the opposite — there were 90 million children aged four and under, compared to the urban pet population of around 40 million. "We expect to see stronger momentum in pet ownership amid a relatively weaker birth rate outlook and higher incremental household pet penetration from the younger generation," the investment bank's equity analyst Valerie Zhou wrote. New births in the country are projected to fall at an average rate of 4.2% until 2030, largely driven by a decline in the population of women aged 20 to 35 years, and as the younger generation is less inclined to have children, the report stated.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Valerie Zhou Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics
Myanmar’s junta has lost communications with senior officers at a major military base near the Chinese border, in a rare admission of battlefield failure after rebels announced they had taken control of the key regional army headquarters. Junta troops have been unable to contact an undisclosed number of officers at the besieged northeastern regional command, military spokesman Zaw Min Tun said Monday, following weeks of intense fighting in and around the town. “The rapid fall of the Myanmar army’s Northeastern Command makes it fully clear to the ranks of the resistance and to neighboring countries just how weak the Myanmar military has become,” said Jason Tower at the United States Institute of Peace. “For Min Aung Hlaing, the implications are existential,” he said, referring to the embattled junta chief. “We will also continue to fight as allies until the military falls,” said the statement from the Kachin, Karen and Chin groups.
Persons: Zaw Min Tun, , Myanmar’s, “ MNDAA, Lashio, Jason Tower, Aung, , Chin Organizations: Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Junta, Northeastern Command, Myanmar, United States Institute of Peace, Sunday Locations: Lashio, , Shan, Beijing, China, Myanmar, Thai, Kachin
High-end real estateAbout 30% of India's UHNWI investments go into luxury real estate, including overseas projects, said Alok Saigal, president of wealth management firm Nuvama Private. People have moved away from investing in land as it is less liquid, and more wealth has been allocated to residential real estate since the pandemic, he added. Around 20% of Dubai's offshore real estate pie is owned by Indian investors. Startups' lureInvesting in startups is becoming increasingly popular, especially with the younger generation of rich Indians, wealth managers told CNBC. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesAbout 17% of India's UHNWIs' wealth goes into luxury goods, with jewelry, art and watches as top preferences, findings from Knight Frank revealed.
Persons: Knight Frank, Alok Saigal, Alok, Chethan Shenoy, Anand, Saigal, Nitin Chengappa, India's, Chengappa, Anand Rathi Wealth's, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Organizations: Getty, India, Nuvama Private, Offshore, Nuvama, CNBC, Standard Chartered Bank, Shoppers, DLF, BMI, Bloomberg, Fitch Solutions, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA Locations: Mumbai, Beijing, New York, London, UHNWIs, Dubai, Delhi, New Delhi, India
A man looks at an electronic boarddisplaying stock prices of the Nikkei 225 listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo on April 30, 2024. Kazuhiro Nogi | Afp | Getty ImagesInvestors on Monday turned to safe-haven assets as a global stock sell-off deepened, following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data at the end of last week. The disappointing jobs report spurred investor fears that the Federal Reserve made a mistake last week when it kept interest rates unchanged, and that the world's largest economy is headed toward a recession. The stock sell-off has also been exacerbated by volatility in some of the major earnings and a more hawkish Bank of Japan, which has led to speculation that the popular yen "carry trade" has imploded over a short-term basis. A "carry trade" takes place when investor borrows in a currency with low interest rates, such as the yen, and reinvests the proceeds in a currency with a higher rate of return.
Persons: Kazuhiro Nogi Organizations: Nikkei, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Afp, Getty, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan Locations: Tokyo
U Har San and his wife crawled under a table, and their daughter, eight months pregnant, hid under a bed. Bombs rained down, he said, even though no rebel fighters were in their village. One bomb killed the mother-to-be, Ma Zar Zar Win. “She was our only daughter, and now our family line has been cut off,” Mr. Har San said. The airstrikes have also taken a heavy toll on resistance fighters.
Persons: Zar Zar, ” Mr, Har Locations: Myanmar, Har San, Lat Pan, Shan State, Rakhine State
Newly-wed couples attending a group wedding ahead of '520 I Love You' Day on May 19, 2024 in Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China. China is issuing its first university degree program in all things matrimony, and its curriculum includes wedding planning, matchmaking services and marriage counseling. "It starts from before [a couple] starts a family — from marriage matchmaking, to premarital counseling, marriage registration, wedding services, and then extending down to counseling before divorce," Yu told local media according to a Baidu translation, adding that there is currently a talent demand gap for highly trained professionals in the marriage services market. Modules in the course include sociology, wedding venue design, family ethics, the economics of the marriage industry and family policies. Students will also have the chance to intern at agencies that specialize in weddings, matchmaking, marriage registration and counseling.
Persons: Yu Xiaohui, Yu Organizations: Vocational University of Civil Affairs, university's, of, Culture, Media Arts Locations: Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China, Beijing
Displaced people fleeing fighting in Lashio try to cross the flooded road to Taunggyi in Myanmar's northern Shan state on July 9, 2024. For Lashio to fall, “it basically eliminates the junta as an effective organized force from a huge part of the country,” Ruser said. The road on the way was badly damaged,” he said as he traveled to Taunggyi, the Shan state capital some nine hours south of Lashio. People queue for food at a monastery turned temporary shelter for internally displaced people in Lashio, Shan state on November 15, 2023. There were also reports in local media that the junta had ordered its staff to leave Lashio as fighting got closer.
Persons: Khin, ” Khin Swe, , , Lashio “, Zaw Min Tun, Lashio, Stringer, Nathan Ruser, ” Ruser, Swe, Khin Swe, , Arakan Army –, “ They’re, Miemie Winn Byrd, Daniel K, Inouye, ” Byrd, “ I’m, Min Aung, I’m, they’re Organizations: CNN, Northeastern Military Command, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Junta, Getty, Analysts, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, “ Artillery, Facebook, Rebels, Three Brotherhood Alliance, People’s Defence Force, National Liberation Army, Arakan Army, US Army, Pacific Center for Security, Brotherhood Alliance Locations: Myanmar, Lashio, Shan, Zaw, Taunggyi, AFP, Zin Ann, Hsipaw, Mandalay, Arakan, Inouye Asia
Olympic and Paralympic medals are shown during the unveiling of the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games Medals on February 1, 2024 in Paris, France. Pascal Le Segretain | Getty Images Sport | Getty ImagesThe Paris 2024 Olympics is well underway, with dozens of medals already handed out. Vivian Kong won Hong Kong's first medal at the Paris Games, topping the podium in the women's epee individual event. Vaughn Ridley | Getty Images Sport | Getty ImagesOther governments dangling six-figure cash rewards for their gold medalists include Israel, Malaysia, Kazakhstan and Indonesia. Gold medalists receive 20,000 euros ($22,000).
Persons: Pascal Le Segretain, Hong, Administration Chan Kwok, ki, Vivian Kong, Hong Kong's, Cheung Ka, Siobhan Bernadette Haughey, Joseph, Michael Phelps, Vaughn Ridley, Man Wai Vivian Kong Organizations: Paris, Paralympic, Getty, International Olympic, CNBC, Olympic, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Administration, HK, Paris Games, Singapore, United, Rio, Tokyo Games, Germany's Sports Aid Foundation, Indian Olympic Association, Team Hong Kong, Olympic Games, Grand Palais Locations: Paris, France, Hong Kong, Singapore, United States, Israel, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Grand
At a time when China's economy is facing headwinds, and growth has been slowing, where are the Chinese ultra-rich, whose numbers are expected to swell to 144,897 by 2028 from 98,551 in 2023, parking their wealth? However, the country's high-end property market remains a favored asset. Luxury real estate"There has been a noticeable increase in transactions within Shanghai's luxury real estate sector," said James Macdonald, head of China research at global real estate firm Savills, attributing it to a recent policy easing by the government. That said, China's luxury real estate market is still primarily concentrated in the core areas of first-tier cities, said Li. Other local investment classes, such as the wider property market and China-listed stocks are not as popular among the ultra rich, experts told CNBC.
Persons: Weiquan Lin, Frank, James Macdonald, Savills, Stephen Pau, Sam Xie, CBRE's, Xie, Arbour, Tian Di, Knight Frank Head of, Pacific Research Christine Li, Li, Nick Xiao, Xiao, Yongyuan Dai, Pau, defensiveness Organizations: CNBC, Pacific Research, Overseas, Domestic Institutional Investors, Domestic Limited, Hywin Locations: China, Shanghai, Lujiazui, Knight Frank Head of Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, Yongyuan, Pau
A general view of the Lotte tower amid the the Seoul city skyline and Han river during sunset. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures were at 17,741, higher than the HSI's last close of 17,635.88. South Korea's Kospi rose 1.01%, while the small-cap Kosdaq climbed 1.22%. South Korea's producer price index in June rose 2.5% year-on-year, compared to a 2.3% climb in May. According to economists polled by Reuters, the country's consumer price index is expected to climb 2.7% year-on-year.
Persons: Australia's, Narendra Modi's, , Samantha Subin, Hakyung Kim Organizations: Nikkei, Barclays, Traders, Reuters, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Locations: Seoul, India, Asia, U.S
Singapore is the world's safest city for tourists, according to new research by Forbes Advisor. Out of 60 analyzed cities, the Southeast Asian city boasted the lowest natural disaster risk, and the second lowest health and infrastructure risks. Singapore was deemed to have the second lowest digital security risk on the list. After Singapore, the study ranked Tokyo and Toronto as the next safest cities for travelers. Tokyo was deemed to have the lowest health security risk, a testament to the quality of healthcare services in the city, and the fifth lowest infrastructure security risk.
Organizations: Forbes Advisor, Singapore Locations: Singapore, Tokyo, Toronto, Japan, Australia
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called Biden "a true friend" and a "partner to Canadians." "I've known President Biden for years. To President Biden and the First Lady: thank you," Trudeau wrote in an Instagram post. Biden's "difficult" decision was acknowledged by Polish President Donald Tusk and Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala as driven by the larger interest of the U.S."Dear President @JoeBiden. "We will always be thankful for President Biden's leadership.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Biden, Donald Trump, Justin Trudeau, He's, , Trudeau, Keir Starmer, Biden's, Donald Tusk, Petr Fiala, @JoeBiden, You've, Tusk, Anthony Albanese, Yoav Gallant, Gallant, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Dmitry Peskov, Peskov, Barack Obama, Obama Organizations: College of Southern, Sunday, Democratic Party, Canadian, Czech, Israeli, Kremlin Locations: College of Southern Nevada, Las Vegas , Nevada, Poland, America, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Moscow, Ukraine, Russian
They are turning to making their own oil by buying household oil press machines. a post on social media platform Xiaohongshu, captioning a video of a bottle of cooking oil, showcased locals' worries. China's authorities have launched an investigation into food safety concerns after domestic media revealed that a major state-owned company, Sinograin, had been using tankers that carry fuel to transport cooking oil. Be careful of 'Made in China' food products," Rein told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe." "Illegal enterprises and relevant responsible persons will be severely punished in accordance with the law and will not be tolerated," China's Commission on Food Safety of the State Council said.
Persons: It's, Shaun Rein, Rein, CNBC's Organizations: Chinese Communist Party, Beijing, Private, Hopefull, Oil Group, Beijing News, China Market Research, Times Finance, Food, State Locations: China, China's Guangxi, Australia, Europe, Hong Kong
Chinese President Xi Jinping and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing, China, in 2017. "So this is not going to be a sustainable driver of growth for China." China's exports to the U.S. rose by a modest 1.5% in the first half of the year. Citi forecasts 5.0% growth in real GDP growth for China this year. UBS forecasts 4.9% growth for China's economy this year.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, Artyom Ivanov, Goldman Sachs, Trump, JD Vance, Hui Shan, CNBC's, Janet Yellen, Vance, Biden, Mike Pence wouldn't, MAGA, Lin Jian, Goldman's Shan, Shan, Tao Wang Organizations: TASS, Getty, BEIJING, U.S, European, Citi, Fox News, Trump, Capitol, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, CNBC, UBS Investment Bank, UBS Locations: Beijing, China, U.S, European Union, Asia, Ukraine
Gold eases after hitting fresh record
  + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
One kilogram gold bullion at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices extended their rise to a fresh all-time high on Wednesday, as growing optimism for an interest-rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve in September and a weaker dollar boosted demand. Spot gold eased about 0.2% to $2,462.85 per ounce, driven by profit-taking, after the bullion hit a high of $2,482.29 earlier in the session. Markets now see a 98% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies.
Persons: David Meger, Christopher Waller Organizations: Co, U.S . Federal Reserve, High, Fed Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, U.S
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