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Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesDonald Trump's U.S. election victory has ratcheted up concerns about higher prices, prompting strategists to rethink the outlook for global bond yields and currencies. Trump's return to the White House is seen as likely to throw a wrench in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, potentially keeping an upward bias on Treasury yields. Bond yields tend to rise when market participants expect higher prices or a growing budget deficit. "Trump's election advances both possibilities as a trade war and increased fiscal spending work at cross purposes," he added. Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro zone, stood at 2.337% on Wednesday, marginally lower for the session.
Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Alim Remtulla, Remtulla, Kamala Harris, there's, Trump, There's, Shannon Kirwin, Kirwin, Sameer Goel, CNBC's, doesn't, Goel, MUFG Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, EFG, Fed, CNBC, Treasury, Democratic, New York Stock Exchange, China News Service, Morningstar, European Union, Deutsche Bank, Trump, U.S, U.S ., Singapore, Malaysian, South Korean, ING Locations: Greensboro , North Carolina, Europe, United States, New York City, U.S, Mexico, Asia, China
Brewing worker resentment could fuel a 2025 quitting spree
  + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Jennifer Liu | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The job market could be poised for a fresh wave of people quitting, according to a new Glassdoor report. Employees' satisfaction in their career opportunities has been on the decline since 2022 after people settled into new roles following the post-pandemic hiring boom known as the Great Resignation. "People don't feel like the job market is working for them right now, even if you hear economists and policymakers talk about how strong and resilient the job market is," Glassdoor senior economist Daniel Zhao tells CNBC Make It. "The desire [to quit] is there, but the opportunities aren't," Zhao says. For example, some sectors, like housing, real estate and tech, could be buoyed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, Zhao says.
Persons: Daniel Zhao, Zhao, Terry Petzold, Donald Trump Organizations: CNBC, Fox Search, White
Investors may soon be forced to take on more risk and rethink their diversification strategies due to macroeconomic uncertainties. And that presents challenges for those who follow the traditional balance of 60% stocks to 40% bonds as a diversifier, he added. "Momentum has really been driving equities higher across the board, especially with respect to large-cap growth names," Adams said. The study found that stocks, bonds, and options strategies could have more correlated risk than is evident on the surface. "So value stocks are about the here-and-now, growth stocks are about the hereafter."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jon Adams, Adams, Jimmy Chang, Donald Trump, Chang, Nikolai Roussanov, David Kelly, you've, Kelly Organizations: Calamos Wealth, Treasury, Rockefeller, Family, Wharton School, Morgan Asset Management
Nvidia earnings results this week are more important to the stock market than the Federal Reserve or even jobs data, according to the options market. But Jensen Huang's company remains crucially important to the market, according to Wall Street firms tracking the options market. NVDA 1D mountain Nvidia The options market shows an implied move of 8% for Nvidia, according to Barclays. For investors, how Nvidia moves could determine what is next for a market that has been flagging lately following the postelection rally, according to Bank of America Securities' Asis. Asis recommends hedging against the earnings results in case Nvidia disappoints.
Persons: Jensen, Gonzalo Asis, Asis, Stefano Pascale Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Wall, Bank of America Securities, Sunday, Nvidia, CPI, Barclays, Bank of America, Apple, Microsoft Locations: Asis
What exactly President-elect Donald Trump's second term means for the stock market will be the question investors continue to grapple with in the week ahead. Nvidia earnings results will also be on deck as investors deal with stubbornly high interest rates as well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged past 44,000 for the first time ever, and the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite similarly posted new records. Sales of Blackwell and Grace Blackwell are expected to start to show up in results next year. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF has surged 11% this month.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Jimmy Chang, Jensen Huang, CNBC's, Blackwell, Grace Blackwell, Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler, Kumar, Jensen, Donald Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Novavax, Ken Mahoney, Trump, There's, Mahoney, Rockefeller's Chang, Chris Rupkey, Jerome Powell Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Rockefeller Global Family, Treasury, Nvidia, Blackwell, Health, Human Services Department, Moderna, Asset Management, Regional Banking ETF, Federal, White, FWDBONDS, Housing, Walmart, Lowe's, Palo Alto Networks, Philadelphia Fed, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Ross Stores, Intuit, Deere, PMI, PMI Manufacturing, PMI Services Locations: China, U.S, NAHB, . Kansas, Michigan
Trump's plan to transform federal land into housing will be costly, given minimal existing infrastructure, UBS says. Those policies, plus a set of potentially inflationary proposals, could drive up both home prices and mortgage rates, they say. Trump's plan to transform federal land into more housing seems particularly challenged, the analysts say. The higher rates will likely continue the housing lock-in effect, where existing homeowners prefer to remain locked in at their current lower rates. In prepared remarks on Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the US is in no hurry to cut rates, signaling that mortgage rates could stay higher for longer.
Persons: , Donald Trump's, homeownership, Trump, JD Vance, Vance, homebuyers, Jerome Powell Organizations: UBS, Service, Builders
Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper's bet on China involved increasing his exposure to the leading e-commerce companies in the world's second-largest economy, according to the latest securities filing. Tepper's Appaloosa Management more than doubled its position in Temu parent PDD Holdings in the third quarter, according to the hedge fund's quarterly filing. Between Alibaba , PDD and JD.com , Appaloosa held roughly $2 billion of Chinese e-commerce stocks at the end of September. The quarterly hedge fund filing released Thursday showed only positions in U.S.-traded equities, including American depositary receipts, and some derivatives. PDD 6M mountain Chinese stocks like PDD Holdings have been volatile in recent months.
Persons: David Tepper's, Tepper, Stocks, Donald Trump's Organizations: Management, PDD Holdings, CNBC, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Wynn Resorts, iShares FTSE, iShares FTSE China ETF, Vistra Corp, NRG Energy, Amazon, Microsoft, UPS, Boeing, U.S . PDD Holdings, National Football League's Carolina Panthers Locations: China, PDD, Alibaba, iShares FTSE China, Lyft, U.S
European markets closed higher on Thursday as traders digested a slew of earnings and assessed fresh inflation data for a signal on the possible trajectory of interest rate cuts. The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally ended the day 1.08% higher, with all sectors and major bourses trading in the green. Shares of Burberry jumped more than 22%, after the British luxury house announced a sweeping overhaul strategy to stem declining sales. Investors are assessing the likelihood of another interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December after the latest U.S. inflation data. U.S. stocks were little changed Thursday, while Asia-Pacific markets traded in mixed territory overnight.
Persons: Donald Trump's Organizations: Burberry, Siemens, Bilfinger, Merck, Fincantieri, Metro Bank, Aviva, Deutsche Telekom, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Locations: Veon, Asia, Pacific
Senators confirm need for Federal Reserve's independence
  + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Emily Wilkins | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSenators confirm need for Federal Reserve's independenceCNBC's Emily Wilkins reports on the latest news from the White House and Federal Reserve.
Persons: Emily Wilkins Organizations: Federal, White, Federal Reserve
Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. "The backdrop is already a more volatile FX market," Webb said, comparing markets now to when Trump was inaugurated in January 2017. But market volatility is at its lowest level since July, based on the VIX Index, Wall Street's favorite measure of uneasiness. Universa has demand for its strategy, Yarckin said, but it's coming from "a small subset of people." "I wonder if this is being underestimated" by the markets, Webb said.
Persons: Warren Buffett, , Donald Trump, Jonathan Webb, Webb, Trump, Wall, Brandon Yarckin, Universa, Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Yarckin, Simon Aninat, haven't, Mark Spitznagel, Aninant, Mattias Eriksson, Eriksson, Elon Musk, It's Organizations: Universa Investments, Service, Twitter, C8 Technologies, Jefferies, Business, Oracle Locations: Omaha
See who stands to take home the biggest checks, according to the comp consultant Johnson Associates. It predicted that some financial-services professionals could see year-end bonus increases of as much as 35% over last year. Here's a look inside three slides from the Johnson Associates report that illustrate key findings. Johnson Associates' 2024 year-end incentives reportDebt underwriters stand to see the biggest bonus bumps this year — up to 35% over 2023, Johnson Associates' founder, Alan Johnson, told Business Insider. Johnson Associates' 2024 year-end incentives reportOverall, the numbers are good compared with the past couple of years, and OK in the grander scheme of things, he said.
Persons: Johnson, , Goldman Sachs, Alan Johnson, it's Organizations: Service, Johnson Associates, Goldman, Blackstone, underwriters, Equity, Investment, Federal
"Investors should take advantage as munis are poised to deliver good performance into year-end and 2025, in our view," he added. Interest income from municipal bonds is free of federal income taxes. Further, if the investor resides in the same state that issues the bond, the interest income can be exempt from state taxes. Both of those tax cuts could reduce muni bond demand, Li said. As for any potential changes in the individual tax rate, UBS' Mukherjee doesn't necessarily see a big impact on demand.
Persons: Sudip Mukherjee, Mukherjee, Yingchen Li, Trump, Li, Donald Trump, Bank of America's Li, downgrades Organizations: Federal, UBS Global Wealth Management, Bank of America, muni, Republicans, Senate, Democrats, GOP, UBS, Investment, Bank of America's
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), after Republican Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, in New York City, U.S., November 6, 2024. U.S. stocks slid on Thursday, as fresh comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that economic strength could warrant some patience with future rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 189 points, or 0.4%, after falling more than 250 points at the lows of the session. "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully," Powell said. Those moves come after the October producer price index released Thursday rose 0.2%, matching forecasts from economists polled by Dow Jones.
Persons: Republican Donald Trump, Jerome Powell, Stocks, Powell, Tesla, Dow Jones, Donald Trump's, Jay Woods Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Republican, U.S, Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Trump, Russell, PPI, Dow, Freedom Capital Locations: New York City, U.S, Dallas
The core CPI accelerated 0.3% for the month and was at 3.3% annually, also meeting forecasts. The consumer price index , which measures costs across a spectrum of goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month. That took the 12-month inflation rate to 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from September. Inflation perked up in October though pretty much in line with Wall Street expectations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Energy costs, which had been declining in recent months, were flat in October while the food index increased 0.2%.
Persons: Dow Jones, Trump, Ellen Zentner Organizations: Dow, of Labor Statistics, Stock, Federal Reserve, Energy, BLS, White, CPI, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Home Depot on Tuesday delivered better-than-feared quarterly results and appears to be on the verge of an earnings rebound heading into 2025. Same store sales on a companywide basis were down 1.3%, while U.S. same store sales fell 1.2% versus the year ago period. HD YTD mountain Home Depot Year to Date Bottom line High interest rates and economic uncertainty still weigh on Home Depot. But same store sales — a key metric in the retail space that seeks to adjust sales results for new store opening or closings — while down from a year ago, did show improvement in the U.S and globally. Same store sales are expected to decline by about 2.5%, revised upward from the prior expectation of a 3% to 4% decline.
Persons: Patience, Edward Decker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Sha Organizations: U.S, Home, Home Depot, Federal Reserve, Federal, Depot, CNBC, China News Service, Getty Locations: U.S, Comps, Arlington , Virginia, Sha Hanting
Traders work on the New York Stock Exchange floor on November 12, 2024 in New York City. U.S. stock futures traded near the flatline Tuesday night as Wall Street awaited the latest consumer price index data for insights on the pace of inflation. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also inched down around 0.1% each. Other notable economic data releases later this week include the producer price index data and retail sales numbers, which will be announced on Thursday and Friday, respectively. "This is a busy week with consumer prices, producer prices, and retail sales.
Persons: Dow, Tom Hainlin, Dow Jones, Scott Helfstein Organizations: New York Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Investors, Federal, Global, Fed Locations: New York City . U.S
It predicted that some financial services professionals could see year-end bonus increases of as much as 35% over last year. AdvertisementThe financial professionals poised to rake in the most, meanwhile, are not the usual "rainmakers" of Wall Street, but rather a more behind-the-scenes group: the underwriters. Here's a look inside three slides that illustrate key findings from the Johnson Associates report. Debt underwriters stand to see the biggest bonus bumps this year — up to 35% over 2023, Johnson Associates founder Alan Johnson told BI. AdvertisementJohnson sees bonuses for asset management professionals increasing anywhere from 7% to 12% and bumps of 5% to 15% for hedge fund employees.
Persons: Johnson, , Goldman Sachs, Alan Johnson, it's Organizations: Service, Johnson Associates, Goldman, Blackstone, underwriters, Debt, Equity, Investment, Federal
Dollar braces for U.S. inflation data and several Fed speakers
  + stars: | 2024-11-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar started in a cautious mood on Monday as markets braced for U.S. inflation data and a throng of Federal Reserve speakers this week, while the yuan nursed a hangover from Beijing's latest underwhelming stimulus package. The dollar started in a cautious mood on Monday as markets braced for U.S. inflation data and a throng of Federal Reserve speakers this week, while the yuan nursed a hangover from Beijing's latest underwhelming stimulus package. Reports on retail sales and industrial output due Friday should show whether Beijing's various attempts at stimulus are having any real effect on demand. The dollar stood at 7.1970 yuan , having jumped 0.7% on Friday, and looks set to again test the 7.2000 barrier. The dollar index was a fraction firmer at 105.00, after gaining 0.6% last week mainly against the euro.
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Donald Trump's, Michael Feroli, Jerome Powell, cryptocurrencies Organizations: Federal Reserve, New, U.S, Fed Locations: China, New Zealand
Mark Cuban has criticized Donald Trump's tariff proposals. AdvertisementMark Cuban is raising the alarm again on President-elect Donald Trump's tariff proposals. In a Threads post on Friday, Cuban said companies are already bracing for potential tariffs on Chinese imports by shoring up inventory. Cuban wrote that this will inevitably raise consumer prices due to the cost of storing inventory. Many economists say that Trump's tariffs will ultimately hurt consumers' wallets.
Persons: Mark Cuban, Donald Trump's, , Cuban, Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Paul Krugman, Philip Daniele, Timothy Boyle, Oliver Zipse Organizations: Service, Cuban, Trump, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Federal, Taxation, Economic, Columbia, Washington Post, BMW Locations: Cuban, China, United States
Incumbent governments have been punished in Britain, France, India, Japan, South Korea, and elsewhere. The near-universal shift away from Democrats echoes voters' rejection of incumbent political parties across the world this year. South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority. Similarly, Deutsche Bank's Reid wrote that voters are disappointed by how slowly their lives are improving amid cooler economic growth. He said they don't buy that incumbents can tackle immigration, some incumbent governments have had scandals, and voters have become "much more willing to change their vote from election to election."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, , Donald Trump, Biden, Harris, Narendra Modi, Korea's Democrat Party snagged, Jim Reid, Tina Fordham, Louis Perron, Deutsche Bank's Reid Organizations: Service, Democratic, Britain's Labour Party, Conservative Party, Rally, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, Indian, Korea's Democrat Party, National Congress, ANC, Deutsche Bank, Fed, Bank of England, European Central Bank, CNN, Win, Deutsche Locations: Britain, France, India, Japan, South Korea, London, Tokyo, Seoul, Cape Town, Washington, Gaza, country's, South, Ukraine
Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Friday as investors considered the outlook for interest rates and the economy after the Federal Reserve's latest rate cut decision. Treasury yields had tumbled on Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%. The Fed began easing rates at its previous meeting in September with a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction. One Fed meeting remains on the agenda for this year on December 17 to 18, for which traders were last pricing in an around 75% chance of another rate cut, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Federal Reserve, Fed
While Democrats touted job growth under Biden, Trump won over voters facing high prices. "I am promising low taxes, low regulations, low energy costs, low interest rates, secure borders, low, low, low crime and surging incomes for citizens of every race, religion, color, and creed," Trump said during remarks in September. BI adjusted 2021 amounts using Census-division-level inflation to understand how much real wages have changed across the US. Rhode Island had the highest real wage growth, just one of around a dozen states that saw an increase. Real wages massively fell in costly Washington, DC; even before adjusting for inflation wages were roughly flat.
Persons: Trump, , Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Biden, Biden's, Jed Kolko, Matthew Yglesias, Harris, Kolko, they'll Organizations: Biden, Counties, Trump, Service, Federal, The New York Times, BI, stoke Locations: Trump, Rhode, New York, Maryland, Washington
Home Depot could be a beneficiary of the Federal Reserve's latest rate cutting cycle, according to Telsey Advisory Group. The investment firm upgraded shares of the home improvement retailer to outperform from market perform ahead of Home Depot's third-quarter earnings release on Tuesday. Analyst Joseph Feldman also lifted his price target to $455 from $360, which implies upside of 14% from Thursday's close. As a catalyst, Feldman cited upcoming Fed rate cuts. Home Depot shares are up more than 15% year to date.
Persons: Joseph Feldman, Feldman, Hurricanes Helene Organizations: Advisory, Fed, Traders, Hurricanes, Home Depot Locations: Thursday's, Milton
Now that the central bank is lowering rates — with a new quarter point rate cut announced by the Fed on Thursday — experts say having money in cash can still be a competitive strategy. Yet just how much cash to set aside is a question every individual investor needs to determine. Strive for at least a six-month emergency fundMost financial advisors recommend having cash set aside so that unexpected expenses don't blow your budget or cause you to rack up credit card debt. However, having a year's worth of expenses set aside may also be reasonable, depending on your household budget, she said. For many individuals, inflation and having too many expenses has made finding cash to set aside more difficult.
Persons: Nopphon, Greg McBride, Callie Cox, that's, Cox, Natalie Colley, Colley Organizations: Istock, Getty, Federal Reserve, Fed, Ritholtz Wealth Management, Francis Financial, Finance Locations: New York
The news on Home Depot Telsey Advisory Group, a leader in retail industry analysis, upgraded Home Depot stock to a buy-equivalent outperform on Friday. The news on Best Buy Citi lowered its Best Buy price target to $109 per share from $115 on Friday while maintaining its buy-rating on the stock. BBY YTD mountain Best Buy stock performance year-to-date. Bottom line Despite Citi's concerns, we're sticking with Best Buy. Best Buy should be well-positioned to benefit from falling interest rates if home sales pick up again.
Persons: , Telsey, Jim Cramer, Jim, they're, Donald Trump's, Jim Cramer's, Ting Shen Organizations: Advisory, Depot, Federal, Home Depot, Home, Citi, Trump, CNBC, Home Depot Inc, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: China, Washington , DC
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