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The runup in the 10-year Treasury yield is proving to be more than a short-term fluctuation, and that is starting to draw nervous looks on Wall Street. US10Y 3M mountain The 10-year Treasury yield started to climb ahead of the election and has moved higher still after Donald Trump's victory. With the 10-year yield close to a key psychological level of 4.5%, there is concern that another move higher could lead to a downturn in the stock market. If the 10-year yield does break through the 4.5% level, technical patterns suggest it could make a significant climb. Strong economic growth and optimism around artificial intelligence are two reasons why stocks may be able to tolerate higher rates, said Solita Marcelli, UBS global wealth management chief investment officer for the Americas.
Persons: Bond, Donald Trump's, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Trump, Senyek, Paul Ciana, Stocks, Solita Marcelli, Marcelli Organizations: Treasury, Wolfe Research, Bank of America, UBS Locations: 1Q25
Donald Trump's return to the White House sparked a big move higher in small-cap stocks. Small-cap stocks were seen as potential winners under a second Trump presidency, as investors expect it would ease regulations on businesses — which tend to weigh more heavily on smaller businesses. Wednesday's gains in small caps were led by private prison stocks Geo Group and CoreCivic , which were up roughly 20% each. Small-cap stocks have trailed their large-cap counterparts this year. Notably, small caps outperformed in the 3mos after both the Trump 2016 and Biden 2020 wins."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Russell, Jason Goepfert, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, IWM, Wells, Chris Harvey, Robert Krankowski Organizations: Trump, DOJ, FTC, Congress, Wolfe Research, Geo, Biden, UBS, Ferrari Locations: Wells Fargo
Generally, a Trump win is seen as positive for financials given a higher likelihood of deregulation for companies in the space. Traditional oil and gas names are also likely to benefit under a second Trump presidency. One is made up of stocks that benefit after a Harris win; the other would outperform under a second Trump presidency. However, a Harris win is expected to keep current regulation measures in place, and possibly introduce new ones. Private equity giants KKR and Blackstone would also benefit under a Trump win.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Paul Gallant, Cowen, Gallant, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Daniel Clifton, Strategas, Andrew Garthwaite, Trump, Garthwaite, TAN, we've, Biden, Wells, Ike Boruchow, Boruchow, , Russell, Joe Biden, Morgan Stanley, Crypto, isn't, Nic Puckrin, bitcoin, Marcelli, Financials, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Lazard Organizations: Congress, U.S ., Trump, U.S . Trump, GOP, Democratic, CNBC Pro, Wall, Strategas, Enterprise, of America, Ford, UBS, Apple, Enphase Energy, Technologies Enphase, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Trump Media & Technology, Trump Media, Cadence Bank, Viking Therapeutics, Bureau, CNBC, Wolfe Research, Lazard, Private, KKR, Blackstone, Evercore Locations: Washington, of America Cleveland, Cleveland, China
They have also considered the impact of potential tariffs proposed by former President Donald Trump. Some on Wall Street view a Harris win as a potential obstacle for antitrust and megacap technology stocks. "Regulatory scrutiny will probably help a lot of M & A activity under Trump — Harris, it'll be a little more of the status quo," said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. This could "slow the pace of the AI revolution," he said in a recent post to X that also called a Harris win "more bullish" for the industry. Some investors also view Tesla as a likely winner under a Trump administration, given CEO Elon Musk's close ties to the former president.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Roger McNamee, Harris, Trump, Trump — Harris, it'll, Jay Woods, McNamee, Vivek Arya, Joe Rogan, Arya, Ed Mills, Raymond James, of America's Brad Sills, Raymond James ' Mills, Dan Ives, Trump's, Tesla, Elon Musk's, Capital's, Wolfe, Chris Senyek Organizations: Elevation Partners, Tech, Antitrust, Google, Justice Department, Trump, Freedom Capital, Bank of America, PHLX Semiconductor, Democrat, Republican, SOX, Devices, Qualcomm, Nvidia, Broadcom, Texas Instruments, Intel, of America's, Microsoft, Oracle, Wedbush Securities, Investors Locations: stoke, Taiwan, China, Washington
How a Trump or Harris victory could impact the market
  + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHow a Trump or Harris victory could impact the marketChris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss how to play stocks based on different election outcomes.
Persons: Trump, Harris, Chris Senyek, Wolfe Organizations: Wolfe Research
Companies like Walmart and Apple could be among the most reliable plays during earnings season, according to Wolfe Research. The third-quarter earnings season is kicking off this week, with major consumer and financial names set to post their latest financial reports. The firm screened the S & P 500 for companies that have beat on the top- and bottom-lines with positive relative price action around their earnings reports over the past two quarters. His $89 price target on Walmart shares implies about 12.3% potential upside. Other stocks with strong performance around their earnings reports include cereal maker Kellanova , ON Semiconductor and Morgan Stanley .
Persons: Chris Senyek, Wolfe, Greg Badishkanian, Senyek, Apple, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Walmart, Apple, Wolfe Research, TJX Companies, Big Tech, Jefferies, ON Semiconductor
According to Wolfe, Expedia has returned just 3% over the last twelve months and an estimated 2024 price-to-earnings ratio of 10. The online travel agency is rated overweight by analysts polled by FactSet, who have a consensus price target implying 11% potential upside. Walgreens is another long-term favorite that popped up on Wolfe's screens. The stock has 25.3 % potential upside, according to analysts' consensus price target of $12.57, according to FactSet. Other stocks that made Wolfe's "Greatest Hits List" included coffee chain Starbucks , automaker General Motors and medical device maker Medtronic .
Persons: Wolfe, Jerome Powell, Chris Senyek, Expedia, FactSet, Bernstein, Richard Clarke, Clarke, Edgar Bronfman Jr, Bronfman's Organizations: Wolfe Research, Federal, Dow, Nasdaq, Walgreens Boots, Walgreens, Amazon, Paramount Global, Skydance Media, National Amusements, Paramount, General Motors Locations: Deerfield , Illinois
Second quarter earnings season has delivered robust profits despite the recessionary concerns that have roiled the market in recent days. Now, Wolfe Research recommends a handful of stocks that are positioned to outperform in the back half of the year. Here are some of the stocks that made the Wolfe Research screen: Apple was the only "Magnificent Seven" stock that made Wolfe's screen. Zoetis also appeared on the Wolfe screen. Duke Energy , which also reported quarterly results that beat expectations last week, also made Wolfe's screen.
Persons: Chris Senyek, Wolfe, Apple, Luca Maestri, Kellanova, FactSet, Mars, Snickers –, CNBC's David Faber, Hershey, althought, Zoetis Organizations: Wolfe Research, Apple, LSEG, Pfizer Animal Health, Duke Energy Locations: Chicago, New Jersey, North Carolina
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWolfe Research's Chris Senyek: Still a 'big believer' in the AI themeChris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss how to navigate the market sell-off, expectations from Nvidia, AI hype, and more.
Persons: Wolfe, Chris Senyek Organizations: Wolfe Research, Nvidia
The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) currently sits 11% off its highs. MAGS YTD mountain Magnificent Seven ETF performance This backdrop sets the tone for a "make or break week" coinciding with the Federal Reserve's July rate decision Wednesday, according to Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek. Now, more than 18 months after the launch of groundbreaking ChatGPT, Wall Street wants results. Some Wall Street analysts believe strong quarterly results may not be enough to reverse the pullback in tech shares. "My gut is that the tech earnings are going to come in better than people expect."
Persons: Morgan, Roundhill, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Jay Woods, Sundar Pichai, Deutsche Bank's David Folkerts, Baird's Ted Mortonson, Senyek, Rowe Price, Dominic Rizzo, CNBC's Organizations: Nasdaq, Federal, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Freedom Capital, Deutsche, Tech, Fed, Trump
Several stocks could get a boost if former President Donald Trump wins the presidency and the GOP secures control of Congress, the odds of which have increased since the weekend, according to Wolfe Research. Here is a selection of stocks Wolfe expects to reap the benefits of a Trump reelection: Trump Media & Technology Group shares could benefit from a Trump win — and traders have already been piling into the stock since Saturday's event. Trading in Trump Media, which is the parent of social media platform Truth Social, has been volatile in recent months. The stock plunged about 50% in the three weeks after Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts on May 30. Other stocks Wolfe Research expects to benefit from a Trump win include UnitedHealth Group , Halliburton and Emerson Electric .
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Chris Senyek, Wolfe, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, bitcoin Organizations: GOP, Wolfe Research, Investors, Trump, Republican National Convention, Republican, Federal Reserve, Trump Media & Technology Group, Trump Media, White House, Evercore, Citigroup, UnitedHealth, Halliburton, Emerson Electric Locations: Pennsylvania, Milwaukee, Technology
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings more of a 'critical factor' to market than election, says Dan SuzukiDan Suzuki, deputy CIO at Richard Bernstein Advisors, and Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research, join CNBC's 'Power Lunch' to discuss how to position amid political uncertainty, market outlooks, and more.
Persons: Dan Suzuki Dan Suzuki, Bernstein, Chris Senyek Organizations: Bernstein Advisors, Wolfe Research
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStrong profit margins and earnings will sustain S&P bull run, says Wolfe Research's Chris SenyekChris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss his bull thesis for the market, outlooks for tax rates, and more.
Persons: Wolfe, Chris Senyek Chris Senyek Organizations: Wolfe Research
Dividend-paying companies might feel compelled to cut their dividends if they're grappling with a lot of debt, as higher rates raise the cost of leverage for companies. He added dividend cuts can also serve as a "clearing event" for a stock, ironically spurring a period of outperformance. See below for a few of the potential contenders for dividend cuts. The stock is down more than 15% in 2024, and it offers a dividend yield of nearly 5%. Shares are up about 17% in 2024, and the stock has a dividend yield of 3.5%.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Chris Senyek, Wolfe, Matthew Boss, Vail, Goldman Sachs, Christine Cho, Nordstrom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Federal, Vail Resorts, JPMorgan, Vail, Nordstrom, Whirlpool, Owl Locations: Wednesday's
The dominant e-commerce platform has a momentum score, measuring 12-month and one-month relative strength, of 53%, and its earnings estimates have risen 17% since the end of March. Footwear maker Deckers also made the cut, with a 73% momentum score and a 6% swing in upward earnings revisions. Sports betting stock DraftKings also appeared on the Wolfe screen, with a 73% momentum score and a 270% increase in earnings estimates since the end of March. The majority of analysts polled by LSEG have a buy rating with a price target suggesting shares can surge more than 38%. But he called those worries "overdone" while pointing to earnings upside as a catalyst for shares to continue rallying.
Persons: Chris Senyek, Russell, Joseph Civello, Wolfe, Morgan Stanley's Stephen Grambling Organizations: Wolfe Research, Wolfe, LSEG, Amazon, Truist Securities, Sports, Grambling Locations: California, Illinois
While stock splits don't affect a company's value, they can catalyze a move higher or lower, according to Wolfe Research. Artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia announced a 10-for-1 stock split as part of its quarterly earnings report on May 22. The firm examined the roughly 3,000 stock splits from large-cap U.S. companies since 1993 to examine their impact. Here are the favorable criteria Senyek identified: Large market capitalization Higher absolute share price Multiple stock splits in the past "Larger cap, higher price and multiple splits is the 'sweet spot' for stock splits' signaling mechanism," said Senyek. "For what it's worth, the pending Nvidia stock split meets the three aforementioned positive criteria."
Persons: Dow, Chris Senyek, Senyek, That's, FactSet, Baird, Jack Hartung, Chipotle, Amphenol, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Nvidia, Dow Jones Industrial, Walmart, Dominion Freight, Old Dominion, Citigroup, CNBC, Amphenol Locations: Old, Connecticut
Shares are up 13% in 2025, and the company has an estimated 2024 free cash flow to firm yield of 3%, according to Wolfe's analysis. Analysts also generally like the stock, with 11 out of the 14 analysts covering the name rating it a buy or strong buy, according to LSEG. Wolfe also called out O'Reilly Automotive as a potential dividend initiator, highlighting the company's estimated free cash flow to firm of 3% in 2024. Shares are up a mere 1.5% in 2024, but the name remains liked by the Street, rated a buy or strong buy by 64% of the analysts covering it, per LSEG. Estimated free cash flow to firm yield comes in at 7% for 2024, per Wolfe's analysis.
Persons: Wolfe, Alphabet's, Charlie Gaffney, Eaton Vance, we're, there's, Chris Senyek, Skechers, O'Reilly, TD Cowen, Max Rakhlenko, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Wolfe Research, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, CNBC, Equity Income Fund, UBS, O'Reilly Automotive, PayPal, Mattel
Wall Street will be keeping close watch on what Nvidia says about demand for its artificial intelligence chips when the market-moving chipmaker reports quarterly results after the bell Wednesday. Nvidia is expected to surpass expectations again, with analysts polled by LSEG calling for earnings of $5.59 per share on $24.65 billion in revenue. "As long as it tops analyst expectations, NVIDIA is likely to remain a key tailwind for the overall U.S. stock market." NVDA 1Y mountain Shares over the last year For multiple quarters, Nvidia has shocked Wall Street with the robust demand for its tools. "We continue to expect a strong beat-and-raise quarter from NVIDIA as Hopper demand remains robust before the Blackwell transition," wrote Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore.
Persons: they've, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Hopper, Blackwell, Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore, Piper Sandler's Harsh Kumar, Rosenblatt's Hans Mosesmann, Baird's Tristan Gerra, Tom O'Malley, Baird's Gerra, Nvidia's Blackwell, America's Vivek Arya, Arya, Timothy Arcuri, Rosenblatt's Mosesmann, O'Malley, Morgan Stanley's Moore Organizations: Nvidia, NVIDIA, Blackwell, Barclays, Bank, America's, UBS Locations: Nvidia's
Against this backdrop, Wolfe Research screened for stocks that can help investors navigate a still challenging macroeconomic backdrop. "One of our favorite dividend strategies is to buy companies with a virtuous combination of (1) high dividend growth, and (2) a high free cash flow yield," Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek wrote. Johnson & Johnson was one of the companies that made the cut. Johnson & Johnson also said earlier in May it would spend $6.5 billion to resolve all outstanding litigation in the U.S. tied to claims its talc power caused ovarian cancer. JNJ YTD mountain Johnson & Johnson stock.
Persons: isn't, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Johnson, Enrique Lores, it's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wolfe Research, Wall, Johnson, HP Inc, HP, Constellation Energy, Constellation, eBay, Vistra Energy Locations: U.S, Johnson
Stocks that offer high dividend growth and high free cash flow perform best no matter the economic weather, according to Wolfe Research. Here are a few stocks that fit the bill, according to Senyek: Online marketplace eBay was one of several stocks that Wolfe singled out. With its 4% yield, CVS is also a good buy for investors focusing on a high-dividend growth, high free cash flow strategy, Wolfe said. Following CVS' earnings release, investment bank Leerink initiated research coverage of the stock with an outperform rating , citing its cash potential. Other stocks Wolfe included on its list were Constellation Energy , Humana and Archer-Daniels-Midland .
Persons: Chris Senyek, Wolfe, UnitedHealth, Andrew Mok, Tom Cowhey, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, eBay, Barclays, Medicare, CVS, Constellation Energy, Humana, Archer, Daniels, Midland
With fourth quarter earnings season in full swing, Wolfe Research released a list of potential stocks that are best left alone. The companies fall into the bottom 20% of their sector earnings quality and are likely to underperform in 2024, according to Wolfe. The company's average earnings quality score for the trailing four quarters came in at 5. Its average earnings quality score for the trailing four quarters amounted to 25. The payments platform earned an earnings quality score of 10 and an average score in the trailing four quarters of 30.
Persons: Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Tesla, Elon Musk, Chewy, Goldman Sachs, Trevor Young, Morgan Stanley, BTIG, Oppenheimer, Dominick Gabriele, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Tesla, Argos Holdings, Barclays, PayPal, Paypal, Mizuho Locations: F2H24
There are some names this upcoming earnings season investors may want to steer clear from, according to Wolfe Research. As the season gets started, Wolfe Research advised clients to stay away from companies with a low earnings quality score. "We expect low quality stocks to underperform again starting in 2024," chief investment strategist Chris Senyek wrote Wednesday. The firm has a basket of low earnings quality names that can help investors "avoid potential blow-ups in the portfolio." C3.ai also made Wolfe's list with an earnings quality rating of 1.
Persons: underperform, Chris Senyek, Tesla, Elon Musk, Levi Strauss, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, FactSet, Hasbro
If this year's early Santa Claus rally is any indication, investors may be getting too optimistic about the prospects of a rate cut early next year, according to Wolfe Research. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 hit fresh year-to-date closing highs on Friday. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD chart Investors have been sending stocks flying on the back of expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt more dovish policy next year. Senyek's base line scenario for 2024 sees these factors bringing the S & P 500 to 4,250 by year-end 2024, implying about an 8% drop. His bull case takes the S & P 500 up to 4,995 for a 9% gain, while his bear case calls stocks to plunge 22% to 3,565.
Persons: Santa Claus, Chris Senyek, Senyek Organizations: Wolfe Research, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Traders, pharma Locations: Santa, U.S
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 4, 2023. U.S. stock futures were little changed on Tuesday night after the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid for a second day. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.09% and 0.15%, respectively. Looking past this rally, come the new year Wolfe Research chief investment strategist Chris Senyek sees disappointment ahead for investors. In his base case scenario, Senyek sees the S&P 500 dropping 8% by the end of 2024.
Persons: MongoDB, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Senyek, Campbell Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, ., Toll, Wolfe Research, Traders Locations: New York City, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCooling inflation will be a 'double-edged sword' for companies, says Wolfe Research's Chris SenyekChris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to explain his bearish base case for the markets, why he says we haven't felt the full impact of Fed rate hikes and how cooling inflation could be a 'double-edged sword'.
Persons: Wolfe, Chris Senyek Chris Senyek, haven't Organizations: Wolfe Research
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