If this year's early Santa Claus rally is any indication, investors may be getting too optimistic about the prospects of a rate cut early next year, according to Wolfe Research.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 hit fresh year-to-date closing highs on Friday.
.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD chart Investors have been sending stocks flying on the back of expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt more dovish policy next year.
Senyek's base line scenario for 2024 sees these factors bringing the S & P 500 to 4,250 by year-end 2024, implying about an 8% drop.
His bull case takes the S & P 500 up to 4,995 for a 9% gain, while his bear case calls stocks to plunge 22% to 3,565.
Persons:
Santa Claus, Chris Senyek, Senyek
Organizations:
Wolfe Research, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Traders, pharma
Locations:
Santa, U.S