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☆ Analysis-China's economic gloom hangs over Japan's long-awaited recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

TOKYO (Reuters) - Policymakers in Tokyo believe China’s deepening economic woes could hit Japan’s fragile recovery, especially if Beijing fails to shore up demand with meaningful stimulus, potentially delaying an exit from ultra-loose monetary policy. China is Japan’s largest trading partner, accounting for 20% of its exports, having replaced the United States in 2020. “Exports to China had already been weak and headwinds to inbound tourism are clearly bad for Japan’s economy,” said Toru Suehiro, chief economist at Daiwa Securities. Firms also promised wage hikes unseen in three decades this year, heightening the case for a retreat from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy. The darkening outlook for Japan’s recovery may push back the timing of a BOJ policy shift.

Persons: Marko Djurica, Kazuo Ueda’s, ”, Hiroyuki Ogawa, Ogawa, Takeshi Niinami, Toru Suehiro, Ueda, Toyoaki Nakamura, “, Seisaku Kameda Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan’s, Reuters, Japan, Komatsu Ltd, Komatsu, Suntory Holdings, Daiwa Securities, Japan’s Sompo Holdings Locations: TOKYO, Tokyo, Beijing, Japan, United States, China

In a sign of growing pessimism over China, the government also said its monthly economic report for August that "concern over China's outlook" was among risks to Japan's recovery. "Exports to China had already been weak and headwinds to inbound tourism are clearly bad for Japan's economy," said Toru Suehiro, chief economist at Daiwa Securities. "All in all, it's hard to justify tightening monetary policy any time soon." Firms also promised wage hikes unseen in three decades this year, heightening the case for a retreat from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy. The darkening outlook for Japan's recovery may push back the timing of a BOJ policy shift.

Persons: Marko Djurica, Kazuo Ueda's, Hiroyuki Ogawa, Ogawa, Takeshi Niinami, Toru Suehiro, Ueda, Toyoaki Nakamura, Seisaku Kameda, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan's, Reuters, Japan, Komatsu Ltd, Komatsu, Suntory Holdings, Daiwa Securities, Japan's Sompo Holdings, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, TOKYO, Beijing, United States

[1/6] A chef cooks tofu as he prepares a dish before the opening for dinner hour at Ukai, a traditional Japanese restaurant, in Tokyo, Japan, July 6, 2023. "There's no doubt rising wages and bonuses are among factors prodding customers to come dine with us despite the price hikes," said Ukai manager Yuka Hoshino. It is also drawing the attention of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which is shifting away from its view the recent cost-driven inflation will prove temporary. "Japan is seeing early signs of progress in achieving inflation accompanied by higher wages," another source said, a view echoed by two more sources. The BOJ is changing its tone on the drivers of inflation and how they see progress made in sustainably hitting 2% inflation.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Hiroki Wakita, Yuka Hoshino, Kazuo Ueda, Teikoku Databank, Akihito Sato, Shohei Kanai, Ryozo Himino, Seisaku Kameda, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Research, Workers, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, French, Ginza

☆ Japan's 2023 inflation forecast will probably be revised upward, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJapan's 2023 inflation forecast will probably be revised upward, economist saysSeisaku Kameda of Sompo Institute Plus says cost-push inflation has become more persistent and widespread than what the Bank of Japan had expected.

Persons: Seisaku Organizations: Sompo, Bank of Japan

☆ Analysis: Japan's upbeat wages may keep new BOJ chief on hook for policy tweak
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

However, a widely expected upgrade in the Bank of Japan's price forecasts due this month may show inflation staying near 2% for several years. "The BOJ will probably upgrade its price forecasts this month. In doing so, it could offer new guidance on future policy and tweak YCC around summer or autumn," she said. With more firms hiking prices and employees' pay, the BOJ may revise up the forecasts and see inflation stay around 2% through fiscal 2025, analysts say. "The BOJ may see scope to tweak YCC as early as June," he said.

☆ Japan's yield control faces biggest test to date as BOJ debates policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But with inflation exceeding its 2% target, the BOJ is facing its biggest test so far for its stimulatory policy, which is called yield curve control (YCC). The cap for the 10-year bond therefore became 0.5%. Market expectations of an early rate hike have boosted yields broadly, with the eight-year moving higher than the 10-year yield. In considering the BOJ's options, some analysts bet it will further widen the band and allow the 10-year yield to rise as far as 0.75%. Others expect the central bank to raise the 10-year yield target above 0%, change it to one targeting a shorter-dated maturity, or abandon it altogether.

☆ Japan's inflation in September is a 'heavy burden' for consumers, says economist
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJapan's inflation in September is a 'heavy burden' for consumers, says economistSeisaku Kameda of Sompo Institute Plus discusses the country's consumer price index and says financial markets, on the other hand, would find that it's "not a big surprise."

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