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☆ The Red Sea attacks are throwing supply chains into chaos — but US oil exports appear to be benefiting from them
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-08 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

International oil buyers are purchasing more US shale amid attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, said a Mizuho analyst. US petroleum exports rose by 35% on-week to nearly 5.3 million barrels a day for the week ended December 29. Oil prices have not been getting much of a boost from the Red Sea attacks. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe ongoing attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels are causing chaos for the world's supply chains — but American oil exports appear to be benefiting from them.

Persons: —, Robert Yawger Organizations: Service, EU, Mizuho Securities USA, Business Locations: Red, Mizuho, Red Sea, Iran

☆ Not much volatility expected in markets from now to year-end: Mizuho
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNot much volatility expected in markets from now to year-end: MizuhoLaurent Laskowski, director and equity derivatives strategist at Mizuho Securities USA, thinks that there is little volatility for markets from now until the end of the year, barring the Fed's rate decision in December.

Persons: Mizuho Laurent Laskowski Organizations: Mizuho Securities USA

☆ Moody's changes US ratings outlook to negative, affirms AAA
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 10 (Reuters) - Moody's on Friday changed the outlook on the government of United States of America's ratings to "negative" from "stable". Moody's affirmed the long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings at "Aaa". COMMENTS:REPUBLICAN REPRESENTATIVE ANDY HARRIS, ON X SOCIAL MEDIA“Moody’s just downgraded our credit rating outlook to negative because of our out-of-control government spending and deficits. "I don't think that there is a significant consequence. WALLY ADEYEMO, DEPUTY SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY"While the statement by Moody’s maintains the United States’ Aaa rating, we disagree with the shift to a negative outlook.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Moody's, ANDY HARRIS, JOHN CORNYN, ” STEVEN RICCHIUTO, you've, ” THIERRY WIZMAN, MACQUARIE, “ Moody’s, ” MICHAEL GREEN, JACK ABLIN, CHICAGO “, it's, ”, ” QUINCY KROSBY, CAROL SCHLEIF, We've, CHRISTOPHER HODGE, KARINE JEAN, PIERRE, Moody’s, WALLY ADEYEMO, Biden Organizations: REUTERS, Aaa, Moody’s Investors Service, Capitol, FX, NEW, Republicans, Democrats, BMO, KARINE, Republican, Congressional Republicans, States ’ Aaa, Biden Administration, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United States, MIZUHO, Japan, CHICAGO, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA, MINNEAPOLIS , MN, American

☆ US Treasury increases size of most of its debt auctions
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A bronze seal for the Department of the Treasury is shown at the U.S. Treasury building in Washington, U.S., January 20, 2023. Treasury yields fell after the announcement on relief the increases were not as large as some had feared. The Treasury said on Wednesday it plans to increase the size of its two-year and five-year note auctions by $3 billion per month, and to increase the size of its 3-year and 7-year note auctions by $2 billion and $1 billion per month, respectively. The government will also increase the size of its two-year floating rate note new issue and reopenings by $2 billion. Some Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) auction sizes will also be increased, with a $1 billion increase in the December 5-year TIPS auction and January 10-year TIPS auction.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Steven Ricchiuto, Karen Brettell, Herb Lash, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, U.S . Treasury Department, Treasury, U.S, Mizuho Securities USA, Securities, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, New York, U.S

☆ The economy probably showed gangbuster growth in the third quarter. But will it last?
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

If the projection is correct, it will be the strongest output since the fourth quarter of 2021, when growth was just shy of 7%. However, policymakers, economists and markets will be focused more on forward-looking signals from an economy that repeatedly has defied expectations. For Q3, GDPNow is projecting growth of 5.4%, with more than half — 2.77 percentage points — to come from consumer spending. That expectation intensified during a brief banking industry crisis in March 2023 that the Fed expected would constrain credit enough to bring about a downturn. Central bank officials have raised rates aggressively while professing to not want to drag the economy into recession.

Persons: Spencer Platt, Dow, Joseph LaVorgna, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, LaVorgna, Steven Ricchiuto, Ricchiuto, —, Quincy Krosby, that's Organizations: Getty, Gross, Dow Jones, Commerce Department, Nikko Securities America, Federal Reserve, Fed, White, Mizuho Securities USA, Department, Treasury, LPL Locations: Manhattan, New York City, U.S

The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. Broadly speaking, higher rates for longer could be an unwelcome turn of events for stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 lost 0.94% on Wednesday, while the yield on two-year Treasuries, which reflect interest rate expectations, hit 17-year highs. Futures tied to the Fed’s policy rate late Wednesday showed traders were betting the central bank would ease monetary policy by a total of nearly 60 basis points next year, bringing interest rates to about 4.8%. Signs of wobbling growth could bolster the case for the central bank to cut rates far sooner than it had projected.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Josh Jamner, Gennadiy Goldberg, Jerome Powell, …, David Norris, John Madziyire, ”, Norris, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Herbert Lash, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Stephen Coates Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Treasury, U.S ., Clearbridge Investments, TD Securities USA, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsSept 5 (Reuters) - A post Labor-day rush of bond issuance by U.S. investment-grade-rated companies added renewed pressure on long-end U.S. Treasuries, as some investors switch to buying top-rated corporate debt offering higher yields than those on government bonds. Investors told Reuters they expect anywhere between $100 billion and $150 billion in new bond issuance this month. Ten-year Treasury bond yields were last about nine basis points above Friday's market closing, at 4.27% from 4.180%, and 30-year yields similarly climbed about 9 bps to 4.38% from 4.285% on Friday. Other factors have also contributed to the selloff, from higher government bond supply to rising concerns around U.S. debt sustainability, as highlighted by Fitch’s downgrade of U.S. debt last month. "For right now, it’s just all about supply, and I think that’s what’s pushing yields higher," he said.

Persons: Florence Lo, Gennadiy Goldberg, Tom di Galoma, it’s, Philip Morris, Matt Tracy, Davide Barbuscia Organizations: REUTERS, Labor, Financing, Investors, Reuters, Fed, ICE, TD Securities USA, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Chase, Tuesday's, Unilever Capital Corp, Philip Morris International, Volkswagen, Thomson Locations: U.S

Some analysts warn that rising yields could push up borrowing costs, causing the economic slowdown investors are now betting against. The key question is how much further bear steepening the market needs to see for "investors to become nervous," he added. In 2018, for instance, the curve shifted to a bear-steepening dynamic as the economy appeared to hold up well despite the Fed's tightening. Risks remain, however, warned Jonathan Cohn, head of US Rates Desk Strategy at Nomura Securities International, including the pain for companies refinancing debt at higher rates and China's weakening growth. BEARISH BETSSome investors are worried that Powell’s speech at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, could trigger a short squeeze.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Michael Harris, Gennadiy Goldberg, Alfonso Peccatiello, Peccatiello, Jonathan Cohn, Powell, Harris, Eoin Walsh, Jim Cahn, Cahn, Michael Edwards, Weiss, there'd, Edwards, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Megan Davies, Mark Porter Organizations: Treasury, Futures, Quest Partners, Securities USA, Fed, Nomura Securities International, Investors, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Carolina

☆ A group of Wall Street banks have been fined $549 million for using WhatsApp and other messaging apps to discuss business
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Joseph Wilkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The SEC and CFTC have fined a group of Wall Street firms a combined $549 million. The firms admitted to employees using WhatsApp and other messaging services for business purposes. A pair of regulatory agencies on Tuesday announced large fines for a group of Wall Street banks that admitted to using WhatsApp and other messaging services for business purposes. The Securities and Exchange Commission is fining nine firms a total of $289 million, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued $260 million in fines, for a combined sum of $549 million. The Wednesday announcements bring the SEC's total fines related to the matter to $1.5 billion, while the CFTC's statement said it's imposed more than $1 billion in penalties to date.

Persons: Grewal, SEC Wells, Houlihan Lokey Organizations: SEC, CFTC, Wall Street, BNP, BMO Capital Markets, Morning, Securities, Exchange, Futures Trading, Americas Securities, Capital Markets, Mizuho Securities USA, Company, Wedbush Securities, Nikko Securities America Locations: Wells Fargo, Wall

While an ISM survey offered a tough assessment of U.S. manufacturing conditions, so-called hard data suggest the sector is shuffling along. Federal Reserve data in June showed factory production rebounded in the second quarter, ending two straight quarterly declines. Meanwhile, U.S. construction spending increased solidly last month and May's data was revised higher, boosted by outlays in both single and multifamily housing projects, the Commerce Department said. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) missed analysts forecasts and showed the first decline in activity since April. Money markets now see a 60% probability that the Bank of England will hike rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Steven Ricchiuto, Carlos Casanova, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Herbert Lash, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Alex Richardson, Hugh Lawson, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal, outlays, Commerce Department, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Mizuho Securities USA, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, U.S, Natixis Investment, P Global, European Central Bank, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Bank of England, London, Singapore

☆ Instant View: Fitch downgrades U.S. foreign currency ratings to 'AA+' from 'AAA'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

The downgrade follows a debt ceiling agreement in June that came after months of political brinkmanship and ultimately lifted the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. Unless they think that fiscal trajectory suggests risk of a default, which I don't think they say, I don't understand the reason for this." “So I don't think the reaction, it should surprise anyone in the markets because we've been through this before. JACK ABLIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, CRESSET WEALTH ADVISORS IN PALM BEACH, FLORIDA"I'm surprised, but I'm not surprised." "It's really the just the troubled negotiations that take place every time we have a debt ceiling or budget negotiation.

Persons: Thomas White, Fitch, STEVEN RICCHIUTO, ” WENDY EDELBERG, I'm, JASON WARE, Fiitch, MICHAEL O’ROURKE, “, ” BERNARD BAUMOHL, Poor’s, ” MICHAEL SCHULMAN, ANGELO KOURKAFAS, EDWARD JONES, ”, MICHAEL K, FARR, That’s, ” KEITH LERNER, ” “ It’s, ERIC WINOGRAD, ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN, QUINCY KROSBY, doesn't, JACK ABLIN, it's Organizations: REUTERS, United, AAA, USA, ., OF, HAMILTON PROJECT, BROOKINGS, WASHINGTON D.C, ALBION, Fitch, AA, PRINCETON, NEW, ST LOUIS, MILLER & WASHINGTON LLC, ADVISORY, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: United States, U.S, MIZUHO, WASHINGTON, CITY , UTAH, STAMFORD , CONNECTICUT, NEW JERSEY, ATLANTA, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA, BEACH , FLORIDA

The U.S. Treasury started rebuilding its account through T-bills after the government's debt ceiling was suspended last month. Since early June, the Treasury General Account at the Fed has increased by about $460 billion. "The risk of reserve scarcity in the near-term has receded as more cash has left the RRP facility," said Gennadiy Goldberg, Head of US Rates Strategy at TD Securities USA. "However, money market funds shifted their allocation out of the RRP facility into outright purchases of T-bills and private repo markets," they said. Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Gennadiy Goldberg, Davide Barbuscia, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: YORK, Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Fed, Federal, Securities USA, Citi, repo, ON, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Credit Suisse ups S&P 500 year-end forecast to 4,700
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse increased its year-end target on the S&P 500 (.SPX) to 4,700 from 4,050, citing a decline in the near-term U.S. recession risk and a stronger earnings outlook for the largest technology-related companies, according to a research note on Tuesday from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist & head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse Securities USA. The S&P 500 is currently at 4,545 and up about 18% for the year so far. The company also said it raised its 2023 earnings per share estimates to $220 from $215 and its 2024 EPS forecast to $237 from $220, noting additional 2024 growth tied in part to a rebound in technology-focused company earnings and to buybacks. "Our base case is that a recession will be averted, inflation will remain sticky near current levels, and monetary policy will tighten incrementally," Golub and other Credit Suisse strategists wrote. Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Chris Reese and Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, Caroline Valetkevitch, Chris Reese, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: YORK, Credit Suisse, Credit Suisse Securities USA, Suisse, Thomson

☆ 'Real' meat maker Cargill may emerge big winner in plant-based food as buzzy startup boom fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( Bob Woods | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

Additionally, Cargill began marketing several plant-based protein ingredients, made from soy, pea and wheat, to food and beverage manufacturers worldwide. What to expect for plant-based meat in next decade Cargill's calculated approach to plant-based meats coincides with the nascent industry's trajectory. And then there's the consumer's appetite to pay a premium price for plant-based meat. So Cargill's biggest competition will be the established plant-based meat companies, like Beyond and Impossible, he said. The future of plant-based meat might be analogous to the ongoing transition to electric vehicles.

Persons: Florian Schattenmann, Cargill Cargill, Cargill, Schattenmann, it's, John Baumgartner, Baumgartner, Caroline Bushnell, Bushnell, that's, Seth Goldstein, Goldstein, Tyson's Organizations: Cargill, Foods, Tyson Foods, Hormel Foods, Smithfield Foods, Cargill Inc, The, Bloomberg, Getty, Foods Cargill, Mizuho Securities USA, Good Food Institute, Cubiq Foods, FDA, North, Food and Drug Administration, Morningstar Research Services, Nielsen, annualized Nielsen, Nestle, Tesla, tiptoed, Ford, GM, Hyundai, Volkswagen Locations: U.S, Minneapolis, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Spanish, Berkeley , California, Puris, North American, Netherlands, Bflike, Belgian, North America

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 4, 2023. Investors fear a government default as early as June 1 if Congress fails to resolve the deadlock. Our calculation shows she's not incorrect," said Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA LLC in New York. "Treasury yields I would argue came down too much too soon." The dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.168%.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidTOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - A gauge of global equities fell on Tuesday after weak Chinese trade data sparked concerns about China's domestic demand recovery, while the impasse over the U.S. debt ceiling sparked a sharp sell-off in short-dated Treasury bills. Investors fear a government default if Congress fails to resolve the debt ceiling deadlock as early as June 1. Longer-dated Treasury yields were little changed as investors waited for key U.S. consumer price inflation data on Wednesday. The dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.256%. Gold prices edged higher as some investors sought cover from economic uncertainty, including the debt ceiling deadlock.

MSCI's all-country world index, a gauge of stocks in 47 countries, (.MIWD00000PUS) was up 0.18% after paring gains after hitting a fresh five-month high. The dollar index rose 0.512%. The largely better-than-expected data can help the weakening dollar find a near-term floor, said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington. "On balance, the data being better than expected suggests there's more resilience in the economy than many have given it credit," he said. Oil prices rose more than 1% on Thursday on expectations demand will strengthen as top oil importer China reopens its economy and on positive U.S. economic data.

☆ Instant view: U.S. GDP grows in fourth quarter; weekly jobless claims fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gross domestic product increased at a 2.9% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said in its advance fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate on Thursday. The swing in inventories was the wildcard and that added 1.46 percentage points to GDP growth. "If you look at the GDP data it does seem like we left 2022 with a little bit more momentum than people had thought and with consumption we're also in a pretty good spot. “We have a GDP number that is well above trend, and the previous quarter’s number was well above trend. That suggests higher rates were starting to take a bigger toll, and sets the stage for weaker growth in the first quarter of this year."

☆ The economy was a big concern for voters. Thursday’s inflation report likely won’t help
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Minneapolis CNN —The economy was top of mind for voters in the midterm elections, exit polls showed, adding even more weight to a highly anticipated inflation report due out on Thursday. However, higher energy prices likely pushed up monthly inflation by 0.6%. Additionally, the latest inflation numbers could benefit from the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics tabulates the index. To calculate medical services prices, the agency uses health insurance providers’ retained earnings, or profit margins. Unlike in goods, where inflationary inputs include supply chains and commodity prices, the biggest input into service-providing industries is labor costs.

☆ Premarket Stocks: Wall Street's recent love affair with the Fed could turn on a dime
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN Business —Fed decision day is here — and so is some potential bad news for the market. Part of that was thanks to solid corporate earnings: Companies from GM to Coca-Cola reported strong profits and sales for the third quarter. We’ve been here before: This isn’t the first time investors rushed into markets on the belief that there would be a Fed pivot. Investors are seemingly addicted to the highs and lows of any perceived shifts in the Fed’s thinking, leaving markets excessively volatile. What’s more, only 66 companies have gone public so far this year, down more than 80% from a year ago.

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