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☆ Australia's inflation rate has come within its target range, but rate cuts likely won't come anytime soon
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Australia's inflation rate has come within the RBA's target range in the month of August, easing from 3.5% in July to 2.7%., according to a Wednesday release from the country's Bureau of Statistics. The drop puts the rate below the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2%-3% for the first time since August 2021. He said that while the relief programs will bring headline inflation to the top of the RBA's target range, the RBA will be "looking through" these subsidies and focusing on core inflation. He writes, "the path of core inflation back to the target range has stalled somewhat, and it is hard to see a major improvement in the near term. We think the bank will need to see three more inflation prints before they are comfortable embarking on an easing cycle."

Persons: Australia's, Michelle Bullock, Bullock, Sean Langcake, Langcake Organizations: Statistics, Reserve Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, ., Australia's Locations: SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA, Sydney, Australia, country's, Oxford

☆ Australia's second-quarter wages rise at slowest pace in a year
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Australian wages rose at their slowest pace in a year in the June quarter, falling short of expectations, while softer gains in the private sector suggest the labor market was easing. "The RBA will be somewhat relieved to see wage pressures subsiding," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia. "However, absent an improvement in productivity growth, the current pace of wage growth is still a little too strong for inflation to return to target quickly." The overall increase in annual wages was still just enough to take it above inflation of 3.6%, a welcome return to real pay growth after years of negative outcomes. Incomes will get an added boost from a major round of tax cuts that started in July.

Persons: Sean Langcake Organizations: Australian Bureau, Statistics, Oxford Economics Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia

☆ Australia wages see record rise in Q3, unlikely to be repeated
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Loren Elliott/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSYDNEY, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Australian wages posted the largest increase on record last quarter as a sharp rise in minimum wages benefited millions of workers, while intense competition among employers pushed up many individual pay deals. Annual pay growth picked up to 4.0%, from 3.6%, the fastest since early 2009 and just above market expectations of 3.9%. "Q3 was a perfect storm for wage pressures," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia. Much of the spike was due to a mandated 5.75% rise in the minimum wage which covers more than two million workers. Wage growth in the public sector accelerated to a 12-year high of 3.5%, while the private sector saw growth of 4.2% as firms fought to recruit and retain workers.

Persons: Loren Elliott, Sean Langcake, Wayne Cole, Tom Hogue, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, Analysts, Oxford Economics Australia, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia

☆ Australian economy grows modestly in Q2, eases recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.4% in the second quarter, slightly beating forecasts of 0.3%. The world's 12th largest economy got a boost from net exports, with the return of students and tourists, and public investment. "For all its challenges, the Aussie economy remains remarkably resilient," said Harry Murphy Cruise, an economist at Moody's Analytics. Government consumption will also moderate from its elevated levels, and business investment will ease on the back of squeezed profits." Household consumption, which used to be the engine of growth, remained subdued with just a 0.1% gain in the quarter due to spending on essential goods and services.

Persons: Harry Murphy Cruise, Jim Chalmers, Chalmers, Sean Langcake, Stella Qiu, Jacqueline Wong, Lincoln Organizations: SYDNEY, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Moody's, Consumers, Reserve Bank of Australia, BIS Oxford, Thomson Locations: China

☆ Australia Q2 wage gains underwhelm, argue against further hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Wage growth has been stuck at 0.8% q/q for the past three quarters – a somewhat surprisingly slow pace given the very low level of the unemployment rate," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia. Despite higher interest rates, Australia's jobless rate is hovering near 50-year low of 3.5% and the economy is adding more jobs than expected. The RBA now sees a credible path where inflation could be restrained with interest rates at their current level, minutes showed on Tuesday. The path involves annual wage growth peaking at 4.1% by the end of the year before easing back to 3.6% by end-2025, according to the bank's latest forecasts. The ABS data showed wages in the public sector picked up to an annual rise of 3.1% while growth in private sector wages increased 3.8%.

Persons: David Gray, Sean Langcake, Andrew Boak, Goldman Sachs, Stella Qiu, Kim Coghill, Sonali Paul, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Newcastle, Sydney, Australia, SYDNEY, Oxford Economics Australia

☆ Australia May employment blows past expectations, piling pressure on RBA
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The bond yield curve, which was already inverted to signal risks of a recession, inverted further after the jobs report, with the spread between ten-year and three-year government bond yields turning negative. "The labour market remains very tight, which will contribute to stronger wage growth over 2023," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia. "The RBA has maintained a hawkish tone following the June rate rise, expressing concerns over the persistence of underlying inflation. Job advertisements were mostly steady in May after three months of declines and remained 52% above pre-COVID levels. Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Sonali PaulOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Sean Langcake, Langcake, Philip Lowe, Stella Qiu, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Sonali Paul Organizations: SYDNEY, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Oxford Economics Australia

☆ Australia first-quarter business investment hits 7-year high, outlook solid
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/4] Pedestrians walk in front of a crane and scaffolding on a construction site in central Sydney, Australia, May 31, 2018. REUTERS/David GraySYDNEY, June 1 (Reuters) - Australian business investment rose to a seven-year high in the first quarter, helped by a jump in spending on mining, manufacturing and transport, while firms affirmed plans for solid spending in the year ahead. First-quarter investment by Australia's huge mining sector climbed 1.7%, accelerating from a rise of 0.7% in the previous quarter. The capital spending figures will feed into data on gross domestic product (GDP) due next week. Construction work done came in better-than-expected, although residential building remained soft, likely making a flat contribution to Q1 GDP growth.

Persons: David Gray SYDNEY, Sean Langcake, Stella Qiu, Jacqueline Wong, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: REUTERS, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Oxford Economics Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia

☆ Australia employment unexpectedly drops, reinforcing rate pause bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SYDNEY, May 18 (Reuters) - Australia employment unexpectedly dipped in April after two months of outsized gains, and the jobless rate also ticked up in a sign the red-hot labour market might be cooling, bolstering the case for a pause in interest rate hikes next month. The jobless rate ticked up to a three-month high of 3.7% from a near 50-year low of 3.5%, when analysts had expected no change. Markets reinforced bets of a rate pause next month but were pricing in some risk of a move in August or September. "We expect to see a gradual softening in labour market conditions over 2023 as the impact of interest rate increases to date start to bite," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia. "NAB's view is that there will likely be at least one further rate increase, but we remain close to the peak of this interest rate cycle."

☆ Australia inflation slows in Q1, market leans against rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The annual pace slowed to 7.0%, from 7.8%, suggesting inflation had finally peaked after two years of rapid acceleration in costs. For March alone, the CPI rose 6.3% on the year, down from 6.8% in February. Still, core inflation remains far above the RBA's target band of 2-3% and policy makers have been worried it could fuel a price wage spiral absent further tightening. "Headline inflation has peaked, and weaker tradables inflation will contribute to slower inflation over the rest of 2023," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for BIS Oxford Economics. "But we think there is enough momentum in core and services inflation to warrant tighter policy settings, and maintain our expectation for another rate hike in May."

☆ Australia's robust March employment suggests RBA may hike again
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Steven Saphore/File PhotoSummary Strong employment, jobless near 50-year lows keep RBA on alertFull-time employment surges, positive for household incomeData suggests strong Q1 inflation, see RBA hike again -analystSYDNEY, April 13 (Reuters) - Australia employment blew past expectations for a second month in March while the jobless rate held near 50-year lows, an unambiguously strong report that suggests the central bank's tightening campaign may not be over yet. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday net employment rose 53,000 in March from February, when they rebounded by a steep but slightly downwardly revised 63,600. The jobless rate stayed at 3.5%, when analysts had looked for a nudge up to 3.6%. Full-time employment surged by 72,200, after a hefty increase of 74,900 the previous month, an encouraging sign for household income. Reporting by Stella Qiu and Wayne Cole; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Australia central bank tempers hawkish outlook after hiking rates to over decade high
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In a dovish step, the central bank dropped a reference to further rate "increases", saying instead that "further tightening" would be needed, suggesting that just one more hike might be enough. Rates have already gone up by a whopping 350 basis points since last May, easily the most aggressive tightening campaign by the central bank in modern history. Speculation was rife that the central bank could temper the forward guidance given recent softer data with unemployment rising, economic growth disappointing and wages not climbing as fast as feared. Gareth Aird, economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, sees a risk of the RBA could pause in April. "The reference to assessing 'when' means that the RBA Board has not yet made their mind up around increasing the cash rate in April," Aird said.

☆ Australia retail sales rebound in Jan, but pulse slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Australian retail sales rebounded in January after a surprise plunge in December that owed much to changing spending habits, though the underlining pulse was facing headwinds from high inflation and rising interest rates. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 1.9% in January from December, when they dived 4.0%. Government spending also added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth, while drags are seen coming from inventories, housing and consumer spending on goods. "It's clear that high inflation and rising interest rates are weighing on consumer spending," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for BIS Oxford Economics. "With spending still rebalancing toward services and weaker fundamentals for consumption growth, we expect retail sales growth will be quite patchy over 2023."

☆ Australia Dec retail spending nosedives in warning for economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Retail sales fell 3.9% in December from November, after 11 months of consecutive gains, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data showed on Tuesday, suggesting that rate hikes so far are working as intended. "The large fall in December suggests that retail spending is slowing due to high cost-of-living pressures," said Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics. "With the impact of the 2022 rate hikes yet to be fully realised, we still expect two more hikes to be delivered in the first quarter." After the data, futures markets still priced in a hefty 85% chance the cash rate would be raised by a quarter-point next week to 3.35%. An analysis by UBS on Tuesday projects a sharp slowing in spending by those who hold "extra" cash savings to a well-below trend pace from mid-2023.

☆ Australia inflation surges further in Q4, more rate hikes loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Analysts had thought there was some chance the RBA might even pause its tightening campaign, but the sheer pace of inflation put paid to that. Price rises were broad-based with a closely watched measure of core inflation, the trimmed mean, rising 1.7% in the December quarter. Costs pressures were also building in the service sector which recorded its largest annual rise since 2008, driven by holiday travel, meals out and takeaway food. "Strong demand, particularly over the Christmas holiday period, contributed to price rises for domestic holiday travel and international air fares," said Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics. With inflation pressures broadening yet further, markets moved to price in the risk of at least two more rate hikes from the RBA with swaps implying a peak above 3.60%.

SYDNEY, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank on Tuesday raised interest rates to a 10-year high and stuck with its projection that more hikes are needed, a stance taken as slightly hawkish by markets that were looking for signs of a pause in the near term. "The size and timing of future interest rate increases will continue to be determined by the incoming data and the Board's assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market." Some economists had been looking for a change in the forward guidance by the central bank this time. A top central banker said in November that the board was nearer to the point where it might pause on rates. The central bank had previously indicated it wanted to slow down and assess the drastic moves' effects on consumer spending, especially with a global recession looming.

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