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Washington, DC CNN —A slew of economic news this week will make it much clearer if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The Labor Department is due to release four crucial assessments of America’s job market, gauging labor demand, wage growth, productivity and hiring. Wages and the Fed on Wednesday: The day after, the Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter, a comprehensive measure of employers’ labor costs. The US Labor Department releases December data on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter.
Persons: that’s, , Christian Scherrmann, Jerome Powell, ” Michael Feroli, , ” Feroli, Powell, Alicia Wallace, Joe Brusuelas, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, DWS, Labor, Survey, Fed, Employers, PCE, Federal, Commerce Department, RSM, Whirlpool, Microsoft, UBS, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, Cleveland Cliffs, Mondelez International, JetBlue Airways, Global, US Labor Department, Board, National Bureau of Statistics, Novo Nordisk, Mastercard, Novartis, Boeing, ADP, Nasdaq, Nomura Holdings, Apple, Shell, Honeywell, Deutsche Bank, Clorox, Quest Diagnostics, United States Steel, Bank of England, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Marathon, Cleveland, Chevron
A Chinese bank employee counts 100-yuan notes and U.S. dollar bills at a bank counter in Nantong in China's eastern Jiangsu province on August 6, 2019. The dollar inched broadly higher in cautious trade on Monday and held near 150 yen as traders looked to a policy decision by the Bank of Japan later in the week, alongside other major central bank meetings and a slew of economic data releases globally. A PMI data deluge, inflation figures in the euro zone and U.S. nonfarm payrolls also add to the mix of the event-packed week. "I think for the FOMC and the Bank of England, they will be pretty low key with them leaving interest rates on hold. The yen was last 0.1% lower at 149.75 per dollar, getting a slight reprieve after having struck a one-year trough of 150.78 per dollar last week.
Persons: nonfarm payrolls, Carol Kong, Israel, Chris Weston, Christian Scherrmann Organizations: Bank of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Aussie, Fed Locations: Nantong, China's, Jiangsu, Bank of Japan, Gaza's, Palestinian, U.S
Euro, Hong Kong dollar, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, British pound and Chinese 100-yuan banknotes are seen in a picture illustration shot January 21, 2016. A PMI data deluge, inflation figures in the euro zone and U.S. nonfarm payrolls also add to the mix of the event-packed week. "I think for the FOMC and the Bank of England, they will be pretty low key with them leaving interest rates on hold. The BOJ meeting will be the most interesting one (given) heightened speculation over a policy tweak at this meeting." The yen was last 0.1% lower at 149.75 per dollar, getting a slight reprieve after having struck a one-year trough of 150.78 per dollar last week.
Persons: Jason Lee, nonfarm payrolls, Carol Kong, Israel, Chris Weston, Christian Scherrmann, Rae Wee, Muralikumar Organizations: Hong, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Aussie, Fed, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, Rights SINGAPORE, Bank of Japan, Gaza's, Palestinian, U.S
BoJ policymakers prefer to scrutinize more data to ensure wages and inflation keep rising before changing the policy, five sources familiar with the matter said. The report added there was no consensus within the central bank and the decision could still be a close call. The dollar gained 1.24% to 141.81 yen , after earlier reaching 141.95, the highest since July 10. The greenback is on track for its best weekly percentage gain against the Japanese currency since October at 2.22%. The pound is on track for a 1.75% weekly fall, its largest since early February.
Persons: Edward Moya, Moya, Kenneth Broux, Broux, Masato Kanda, Jerome Powell, Powell, Scherrmann, Karen Brettell, Iain Withers, Angus MacSwan, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: YORK, Reuters, Bank of Japan, FX, Societe Generale, Ministry of Finance, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Europe, New York, United States, U.S, London
BoJ policymakers prefer to scrutinise more data to ensure wages and inflation keep rising before changing the policy, five sources familiar with the matter said. The report added there was no consensus within the central bank and the decision could still be a close call. The dollar was heading for its biggest one-day gain versus the yen since April, rising as much as 1.3% to a nearly two-week high of 141.95. Prior to the report, the dollar had been up around 0.3% versus the yen. The dollar index - which tracks the greenback against six major peers including the yen - was last up 0.3% at 101.040.
Persons: Kenneth Broux, Broux, Kazuo Ueda, Masato Kanda, Scherrmann, Iain Withers, Ankur Banerjee, Angus MacSwan, David Holmes Organizations: Reuters, Bank of Japan, Trade, FX, Societe Generale, Ministry of Finance, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, U.S, Singapore
The data bolsters the chances the BOJ will revise up this year's inflation forecast in fresh projections due next week. Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), said the market expectations for a BOJ policy tightening have ebbed and flowed over the past year. More than three-quarters of economists polled by Reuters expect the BOJ to hold policy steady including its yield control scheme. The yen has slipped about 1% against the dollar this week and is on course to snap its two-week winning run. The onshore yuan firmed against the dollar and was last at 7.1693 per dollar after the central bank set a much stronger guidance than expected.
Persons: Carol Kong, Kong, Kazuo Ueda, Scherrmann, Ankur Banerjee, Sam Holmes Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan's, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Reuters, Sterling, Fed, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Central, Europe, Japan, United State, U.S, Singapore
Price increases are also moderating: December brought the sixth consecutive monthly fall in consumer price index (CPI) inflation to 6.5%. That’s a change from 2022 when the Fed and the market tended to move in unison. This could mean that the upcoming Fed meeting will generate a lot of market disappointment, said Christian Scherrmann, an economist at DWS Group. The Fed flagged investors’ persistent belief in a pivot away from elevated rates as something that could hurt efforts to restore price stability. But even though the lawsuit drives at the heart of Google’s revenue machine, it could take years to play out.
STUBBORNLY HIGHBut stubbornly high inflation is making central bankers' job incredibly tricky. While there is nothing central bankers can do about present inflation rates, the mere optics of runaway prices made a "pivot" more difficult to justify. This requires an extraordinary balancing act by central bankers: persuading the market that they are serious about bringing down inflation without choking the economy. "The Fed needs to open a path towards smaller interest rate hikes without sounding too dovish," Christian Scherrmann, U.S. economist at DWS, said. The change of tone was minimal but it was enough for investors to start pricing in smaller hikes further down the road.
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