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Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFears are mounting that the U.S. could soon experience its own version of Britain's "mini-budget" crisis, with bond strategists warning that Donald Trump's return to the White House brings with it the specter of currency volatility and surging bond yields. The former president's economic agenda has ratcheted up concerns about a surge in consumer prices, which strategists say could spark significant shifts in bond yields and investor behavior. They warn a scenario that mirrors Britain's mini-budget crisis of 2022 is not out of the question. watch nowBritain's mini-budget crisis refers to a tumultuous period under former Prime Minister Liz Truss and ex-Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng. Bond yields tend to rise when market participants expect higher consumer prices or a growing budget deficit.
Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Trump, Remtulla, Liz Truss, Kwasi Kwarteng, Kwarteng, Althea Spinozzi, Trump's, Spinozzi, Angela Weiss, Paul Ashworth, Ashworth, Thierry Wizman, likelier, Wizman Organizations: Economic, of New, Bloomberg, Getty, EFG, CNBC, U.S ., Finance, U.S, Bank of England, Saxo Bank, White, Treasury, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Capital Economics, Macquarie Group Locations: of New York, New York, U.S, Foreign, Treasurys, Treasuries, New York City, America
Yen under pressure as BOJ keeps rates steady
  + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The yen remained under pressure on Thursday as the Bank of Japan kept ultra-low interest rates steady, while the U.S. dollar consolidated ahead of jobs data later this week and the U.S. presidential election next week. The BOJ kept interest rates steady on Thursday and roughly maintained its forecast that inflation will hover near its 2% inflation target in coming years, signaling its readiness to continue rolling back its massive monetary stimulus. Analysts are divided over the prospect of additional interest rate hikes by year-end, putting the focus on BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's post-meeting briefing for clues on the pace and timing of further increases. "Any strengthening of the yen at present would likely result from a general weakening of the U.S. dollar if interest rates begin to align," said Sean Teo, a sales trader at Saxo.
Persons: Yen, Kazuo Ueda's, Sean Teo, payrolls, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Sterling Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S ., U.S, Treasury, Saxo, National Statistics, PMI, Westpac, European Central Bank, Australian, Analysts, New Zealand Locations: China, U.S
Gold's record rally pauses due to stronger dollar, higher yields
  + stars: | 2024-10-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices surged to a record high on Wednesday as the conflicts in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. election spurred demand for safe-haven assets. Gold prices fell over 1% after hitting a record high on Wednesday, as a stronger dollar and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields countered support from safe-haven demand linked to the Nov. 5 U.S. election and Middle East war. Spot gold was down 1% to $2,721.12 per ounce as of 12:25 p.m. EDT (1410 GMT) after hitting a record high of $2,758.37 earlier in the session. However, gold could see the $2,800/oz level by the week's end on safe-haven demand, Haberkorn added. The dollar index rose 0.3% to near a three-month high, making gold less appealing for other currency holders, while U.S. bond yields climbed to a three-month high.
Persons: Bob Haberkorn, Haberkorn, Ole Hansen, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: Treasury, Saxo Bank, U.S, Republican, Reuters Locations: U.S
Friday's knockout jobs report has squashed fears of an imminent recession. Goldman Sachs cut the chances of a recession in the next year to 15%, and other analysts cheered. AdvertisementRecession fears have weighed on Wall Street recently, but Friday's blowout jobs report has assuaged worries of an imminent economic downturn. "Friday's US labor report put paid to US recession fears," Rabobank's research team wrote. The latest jobs report has relieved some concerns about the economy, but also dashed hopes for another jumbo cut in November.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Stocks, Goldman, Saxo, Kamala Harris Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Labor Statistics, Federal Locations: There's
Jessica Gow | Afp | Getty ImagesRussia's ongoing war in Ukraine has resulted in a profound shift in the way defense stocks are viewed by mission-driven fund managers, according to two European defense giants. Defense stocks have typically been excluded from portfolios based on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors due to ethical concerns over their association with warfare. Nonetheless, the inclusion of defense stocks in sustainably-minded portfolios remains controversial. It's really important that we see the role that defense companies play in protecting a free society. It's really important that we see the role that defense companies play in protecting a free society," he said.
Persons: Micael Johansson, Jessica Gow, Johansson, CNBC's Silvia Amaro, It's, Brad Greve, BAE Systems Johansson, hasn't, Ida Kassa Johannesen, Johannesen, Justin Tallis, Saab's Johansson, ESG, John Keeble, Greve Organizations: Saab, Afp, Getty, BAE Systems, Ukraine —, Saxo Bank, CNBC, Democratic, U.S, Republican, Democrats, Malloy Aeronautics, British Aerospace BAE Systems, Farnborough, Exhibition, Conference Centre Locations: Stockholm, Ukraine, Africa, Democratic Republic, Congo, Palestine, London, Farnborough, England
Second-quarter GDP data showed the economy grew at 2.8% in the second quarter, much more than expected. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Traders were assessing tech weakness and hotter-than-expected GDP data for the second quarter. Investors' top concern is slowing tech earnings growth after Tesla and Alphabet both reported disappointing results on Tuesday. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the opening bell on Thursday:AdvertisementMeanwhile, investors are digesting second-quarter GDP data, which showed the US economy grew by 2.8%.
Persons: Stocks, , Mike Owens, Dan Ives, Chris Zaccarelli, Brent Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Traders, Investors, Federal Reserve, Saxo, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Securities, West Texas Locations: China, Here's
Dollar drifts as Powell comments bring September rate cut in focus
  + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar fell slightly on Monday after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while cryptocurrencies rose on bets that an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump lifted his reelection chances. The dollar hung around five-week lows on Tuesday as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell bolstered the case for a rate cut in September, while cryptocurrencies gained on rising odds of former President Donald Trump getting reelected. The comments, likely Powell's last until his press conference following the Fed's July 30-31 meeting, shifted rate cut expectations. Markets are now anticipating 68 basis points of easing this year, with a rate cut in September fully priced in, CME FedWatch tool showed. "Markets may need to wait longer for the confirmation of their September rate cut hopes, and growth and labor data will be on the radar such as retail sales today."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, cryptocurrencies, Powell, We've, Charu Chanana, Trump, Gary Gensler, Chris Weston Organizations: Federal, Economic, of Washington, Saxo, Traders, Bank of Japan, Republican, cryptocurrency, San, SEC, New Zealand Locations: Tokyo, San Francisco
Volatile yen keeps markets on edge as intervention risks swirl
  + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
A sheet of newly-designed Japanese 10,000 yen banknotes at the National Printing Bureau Tokyo plant in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, June 28, 2023. The Japanese currency swung between gains and losses in early trading before trading slightly weaker. It spiked nearly 3% to as high as 157.40 immediately after the consumer inflation report on Thursday. "Currency interventions should certainty be rare in a floating rate market, but we'll need to respond appropriately to excessive volatility or disorderly moves," Kanda said. Tokyo intervened at the end of April and in early May, spending roughly 9.8 trillion yen ($61.55 billion) to support the currency.
Persons: Masato Kanda, Kanda, It's, Siong Sim, Charu Chanana, Matt Simpson, Menon, Donald Trump, Sterling Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Asahi, Nikkei, Bank of Singapore, U.S, CPI, Saxo, Federal Reserve, City, Traders, Presidential, Trump Locations: National Printing Bureau Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, U.S
Vandalized posters with images of local candidates for the European Parliament election mixed with those from the first round of the 2024 French legislative elections, seen on June 24 2024, in Val d Arry, Calvados. France will hold an early legislative election in two rounds on June 30 and July 7 2024, following President Emmanuel Macrons decision which was triggered by his party's heavy defeat to the far-right National Rally in the 2024 European Parliament election. Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesFrench voters are heading to the polls on Sunday for the first round of voting in a snap parliamentary election that could see the far-right National Rally group become the biggest party in France's National Assembly, polls suggest. Calling the snap election, which will involve two rounds of polling on Sunday and on July 7, Macron said the vote would provide "clarification" and that "France needs a clear majority to act in serenity and harmony." French President Emmanuel Macron waits for guest arrivals for a conference in support of Ukraine with European leaders and government representatives on February 26, 2024 in Paris, France.
Persons: Emmanuel Macrons, Emmanuel Macron, Jordan Bardella, Macron, Le Pen, Jordan Bardella —, Pen, Peter Garnry, Giorgia Meloni, George Dyson, Dyson, Ludovic Marin Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty, National Assembly, National, Analysts, Chesnot, New Popular, National Rally, Le, Palais des Sports, Saxo Bank, Risks, Republicans, Renaissance, Nexus Institute, AFP Locations: Val d, Calvados, France, Ukraine, Paris, Germany, The Hague, Netherlands
Dollar calm as traders await clues on U.S. rate path
  + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
In this photo illustration, a person seen holding a 100 US dollar bill in his hand. The dollar was broadly steady on Monday as investors awaited further clues to help chart the U.S. interest rate path in the wake of cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials, even as inflation shows signs of cooling. The Japanese yen was flat at 155.74 per dollar, with traders on alert for any signs of government intervention. That has prompted traders to trim the amount of easing expected this year to about 46 bps, with only a rate cut in November fully priced in. In other currencies, sterling touched a two-month high of $1.2711 ahead of the crucial UK inflation report due on Wednesday.
Persons: Brian Jacobsen, Powell, Jackson, Flash PMIs, Paul Mackel, BoE, Charu Chanana Organizations: Federal Reserve, Annex Wealth Management, ANZ, European Central Bank, Bank of England, HSBC, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Saxo Locations: Tokyo, Germany, U.S, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Gold and silver bars of various sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum in Munich. Gold, silver and platinum prices have been on a tear so far this year, and strategists say the precious metals could continue to hit fresh record highs over the coming months. Spot silver prices, meanwhile, traded 0.5% lower at around $29.54 per ounce. Strategists at Saxo Bank said in a recent research note that gold prices could soon test the $2,400 level, silver may climb as high as $30, while platinum has upside potential to reach $1,130. The Danish bank said Wednesday that its "year of the metals" theme had continued to gather momentum in recent weeks, citing its preference for gold, silver and copper.
Organizations: Aurum, Federal Reserve, Saxo Bank Locations: Munich, London, Danish
Dollar steady ahead of jobs data; yen hits two-week high
  + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen, while still close to the 152 range, hit a two-week high against the greenback as safe-haven bids and fresh warnings from Japanese authorities buoyed the currency. The dollar has had a turbulent week, falling from a five-month high to a two-week low after an unexpected slowdown in U.S. services growth supported expectations of bringing interest rates down. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was last largely unchanged at 104.18. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Friday reiterated the government's resolve to take appropriate action against sharp yen falls. The yen strengthened 0.29% versus the greenback to a two-week high of 150.92.
Persons: payrolls, Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Charu Chanana, Joe Biden, Matt Simpson, Shunichi Suzuki, Kazuo Ueda, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, The U.S, greenback, Minneapolis Federal, Saxo, Biden, Finance, Bank of Japan, Asahi Locations: The, Minneapolis, Gaza, Iran
However, veteran investor and trader Adam Reynolds says it's time to look beyond the U.S. and consider 10 lesser-known companies from across Europe, Japan and Australia. "The focus on U.S. tech stocks — and especially the Magnificent Seven — is driving huge amounts of performance to the U.S. stock market. Calling valuations of U.S. stocks "stretched," Reynolds said there are opportunities in moving toward a "more diversified global portfolio," including better valuations — and returns. In terms of allocation, Reynolds suggests that investors put 30% of their equities portfolio in U.S. stocks, 40% in Asia and 30% in Europe. Chip stocks Shares of semiconductor manufacturer Tokyo Electron are up over 140% over the last 12 months.
Persons: Adam Reynolds, Reynolds, we're, Reynold Organizations: Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Saxo Capital Markets, CNBC Pro, Japan, Tokyo, Novo Nordisk, Nordisk, BYD, Ferrari Locations: Europe, Japan, Australia, Asia, Tokyo, Europe's
Chinese stocks had an eventful week last week — with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index hitting a five-year low of about 2,650 points on Feb. 5, before edging up to end the week at 2,865.90. A slide in Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares on Feb. 9, however, proved that investors may still have lingering concerns on the prospects of Chinese stocks in the new year. As the festive season gets underway, Redmond Wong, market strategist at investment firm Saxo, sees several opportunities to play the market. Boom in green transformation Beyond the traditional sectors, Saxo's Wong is watching an up-and-coming area in China: energy security and a green transformation. Data from the International Energy Agency shows that the Asian giant's clean-energy sectors contributed 11.4 trillion Chinese yuan ($1.6 trillion) to the Chinese economy in 2023, up 30% year-on-year.
Persons: Redmond Wong, Saxo, I'm, Wong, Saxo's Wong, Morningstar, Zijin Organizations: CNBC Pro, Monetary Fund, Technology, Shenzhen, Baidu, Sands, Tsingtao, Morningstar, Tsingtao Brewery, International Energy Agency, Companies, Zijin Mining Locations: Shanghai, Hong Kong, China, Zhejiang, Sands China, Macao, Shandong
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. China's confidence problemChina's biggest problem is a "lack of confidence," Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters told CNBC. China's stock market and deflation issues, coupled with its property troubles are posing a challenge for its growth prospects. "External investors lack confidence in China and domestic savers lack confidence," Winters noted.
Persons: Stocks, Dow, Bill Winters, Winters, Donald Trump's, Antoni Trenchev, Redmond Wong, Saxo, I'm Organizations: CNBC, Trump, NATO Former U.S, NATO, Democratic, Republican Locations: China
Japan’s Nikkei hits 34-year high
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Tokyo Reuters —Japan’s Nikkei share average closed at a fresh 34-year high on Tuesday as trading resumed after a long holiday weekend, with tech-related shares and strong corporate earnings supporting the benchmark stock index. The Nikkei climbed 2.89% to 37,963.97 to its highest since January 1990, after briefly breaching 38,000 points. The broader Topix rose 2.12%. Among other top gainers, Tokio Marine Holdings Inc and MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc gained 11% and 10.82%, respectively. As the Nikkei climbs toward its all-time high, the US consumer price index (CPI) report out later on Tuesday will be in focus.
Persons: SoftBank, , ” JP Morgan, , Charu Chanana Organizations: Tokyo Reuters, Japan’s Nikkei, Nikkei, Tokyo, SoftBank, ARM Holding, Tokio Marine Holdings Inc, Insurance, Holdings, CPI, Saxo Markets, Otsuka Holdings Locations: Tokyo
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. China's confidence problemChina's biggest problem is a "lack of confidence," Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters told CNBC. "External investors lack confidence in China and domestic savers lack confidence," Winters noted. China, Russia threatA new study showed China and Russia are seen as less of a threat to Western populations now than a year ago.
Persons: Dow, Bill Winters, Winters, Antoni Trenchev, Redmond Wong, Saxo, I'm Organizations: CNBC, Nikkei Locations: U.S, China, Russia
Pluto Markets, a trading app backed by famed accelerator Y Combinator, has raised $2.6 million in fresh funds. The Danish fintech startup, founded in 2021, wants to upend the market for retail trading offerings in Europe. "Companies raised a lot of money to blitz scale across the EU but have now focused on their core markets. Unlike most fintech brokerages, Pluto secured an EU-wide investment license before it had raised $1 million in funding, having bootstrapped and stayed lean. You can check out Pluto Market's 14-slide pitch deck below:
Persons: Joakim Bruchman, Goldman Sachs, We've, Bruchmann, Pluto, Oscar Vingtoft Organizations: Business, Companies, Trade Republic, Saxo Bank, EU Locations: Danish, Europe, Denmark, France, Germany, Berlin
Gold posts weekly decline as dollar, yields climb
  + stars: | 2024-01-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,044.21 per ounce after falling and then rising by about 1% earlier in the session. "First, the nonfarm payrolls data came in stronger than expected, due to which we saw some pressure applied to gold ... Both the U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest levels in three weeks, heading for their best weeks since July and October, respectively. On the physical front, gold buying in major consumer India rose this week, as domestic prices fell back from record highs. Palladium fell 0.9% to a three-week low of $1,027.11 in its ninth consecutive session of declines and was down 6.4% on the week.
Persons: David Meger, Saxo, Ole Hansen Organizations: Singapore Gold, Institute for Supply Management, High, U.S ., U.S . Federal Locations: Singapore, India
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEU wealth tax and the end of U.S. capitalism: 'Outrageous predictions' for 2024 and beyondSteen Jakobsen, chief investment officer at Saxo Bank, outlines the Danish investment bank's self-described "outrageous predictions" for 2024.
Persons: Steen Jakobsen Organizations: Saxo Bank Locations: U.S
Denmark's Saxo Bank published its annual list of outrageous predictions Tuesday. They flagged risks including an AI deepfake security crisis and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. winning the US presidential election. Headlining the bank's predictions this year are Robert F. Kennedy Jr. winning the 2024 presidential election and the rise of generative AI sparking a national security crisis in the US. Meanwhile, Saxo sees a high-profile government official getting tricked by AI deepfake technology, triggering a national security crisis. "Outrageous predictions are a deliberate effort to push the boundaries of market participants' imaginations and prepare them for any eventuality," Saxo added.
Persons: Robert F, Kennedy Jr, , Saxo, , Joe Biden, Donald Trump, John Hardy, Hardy, Peter Garnry Organizations: Denmark's Saxo Bank, Service, RFK, Big Tech, New York Times, EU Locations: Wall, Silicon, FiveThirtyEight
An EU wealth tax, the "end of capitalism" in the U.S. and a major health crisis arising from obesity drugs are just some of the "outrageous predictions" put forward by Saxo Bank in a report published Tuesday. Heading into 2024, the Danish investment bank suggested the world is at an "inflection point, with the familiar road of the last decade coming to an end." The predictions focus on a "series of unlikely but underappreciated" events that if they were to occur, would "send shockwaves across the financial markets." This would be rendered more likely if the population "realises how little in tax billionaires are actually playing," he speculated, with social unrest frequently simmering across the continent. In the Netherlands, it is even better to be a billionaire, as the average tax rate is below what US billionaires pay, Garnry noted.
Persons: Irene, I've, Steen Jakobsen, Robin Hood, Peter Garnry, Garnry Organizations: Saxo Bank, CNBC, EU, European Union, Equity Locations: Lower Manhattan , New York, EU, U.S, Ukraine, North America, East Asia, France, Netherlands
Dollar rises, recouping losses from strengthened Fed rate cut bets
  + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major peers, rose by 0.4% to 103.71, while the euro was last down nearly 0.5% at $1.0828. "I think it's the fact that U.S. policy rate expectations have gone too far and will unwind more in December than rate expectations elsewhere," said Colin Asher, senior economist at lender Mizuho in London. "November was... a very poor month for the U.S. dollar, in part driven by expectations of easier Fed policy," Asher said. The dollar was trading higher against the yen at 147.34, after falling to 146.24 in the Asian session, its lowest since mid-September. "A steady USD decline needs more than just an expectation of Fed rate cuts, it also needs strong growth outside of the U.S. which doesn't seem to be the case currently," said Charu Chanana, market strategist at Saxo Markets.
Persons: Colin Asher, Asher, Sterling, Jerome Powell, Charu, denting, Christine Lagarde Organizations: Federal Reserve, Mizuho, U.S ., Saxo Markets, European Central Bank Locations: London, Germany
Asia stocks closing in on strongest month since January
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Kane Wu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A man is reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. The MSCI Asia-ex-Japan stocks index (.MIAPJ0000PUS) is up 6.7% so far this month, setting it on course to mark the best month since January. South Korea's KOSPI (.KS11) has led the rally in Asia with 10.5% gains this month, followed closely by Taiwan (.TWII) and Japan's Nikkei Average index (.N225). Ten-year U.S. yields are down more than 60 basis points in November, on track for the steepest monthly drop since late 2008. U.S. financial conditions are the loosest since early September and have eased 100 basis points in a month, according to Goldman Sachs.
Persons: Issei Kato, Korea's, Christopher Waller, Waller, Redmond Wong, Goldman Sachs, J.P.Morgan, Brent, Kane Wu, Vidya Ranganathan, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Fed, Stock, U.S, Wednesday, Saxo Markets, Organization of, Petroleum, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, HONG KONG, U.S, Asia, Taiwan, Greater China, China, Russia, Hong Kong
REUTERS/Marcos Brindicci/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - The euro edged up on Thursday after data suggested the downturn in the euro zone economy may be starting to ease, although holidays in the U.S. and Japan kept trading activity muted. Earlier in the day, the euro rose against most other major currencies, following the surveys. The survey showed the euro zone economy is on track to contract again in the fourth quarter. Its PMI rose to 43.8 from 43.1, beating the poll expectation for 43.4 but was still below breakeven. The euro was up last up 0.18% on the day at $1.09075, having traded as high as $1.0931 earlier in the day.
Persons: Marcos Brindicci, There's, Michael Brown, Brown, Geert Wilders, Sterling, Jeremy Hunt, Changpeng Zhao, Bitcoin, Vidya Ranganathan, Lincoln, Emelia, Marguerita Choy, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, Saxo Bank, British, Federal, University of Michigan, Fed, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, U.S, Japan, Germany, EU, Wednesday's, Netherlands, Singapore
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