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It's hard to imagine much more upside for the current stock market, according to Bank of America. "The S & P 500 is statistically expensive on almost every metric," Savita Subramanian, the firm's equity and quant strategist, wrote Friday. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 "Overall, we see limited near-term upside to the cap-weighted S & P 500 and prefer the equal-weighted index, but our bear market signposts — the triggers that typically precede an S & P 500 peak — are not signaling elevated risks of an imminent bear market," she wrote. The strategist updated her S & P 500 year-end target to 6,000. The S & P 500 was last trading around 5,880.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Donald Trump's, It's Organizations: Bank of America
Someone apparently forgot to tell mutual fund managers that they are supposed to be worried right now. Professional fund managers have been increasing their bets on stocks since the fourth quarter got underway earlier this month, according to Bank of America. "Watching mutual fund cash levels is typically like watching paint dry, but not this month. That shift is notable ahead of the election and suggests that some fund managers are unconcerned about short-term volatility as votes roll in. Fund managers are underweight that area relative to history, and could rotate into those stocks if they gain more confidence, according to Subramanian.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Cash, Subramanian Organizations: Bank of America . Equity, Investment Company Institute
There's a common belief that lower borrowing costs benefit so-called growth stocks, as they're often capital-intensive. "History also suggests value should outperform growth, at least over the six months following the first rate cut," he said. If the economic situation becomes a "hard-landing," however, he said that growth stocks could outperform. If it normalizes (i.e., becomes more upward sloping), value should outperform growth," he said, referring to a situation where short-term rates are lower than long-term rates. "Lower multiple value stocks have greater upside and less risk than the pricier 'glamor growth' group for the foreseeable future," Ball said.
Persons: Adam Turnquist, Savita Subramanian, CNBC's, we've, Janjigian, Vanguard Russell, Venu Krishna, George Ball, Sanders Morris, Ball Organizations: U.S, Tech, CNBC Pro, LPL, BofA Securities, Greenwich Wealth Management, Vanguard, Index, Barclays, Krishna, Presidential Locations: U.S . Federal
"Profits accelerating are far more important than who is sitting in the Oval Office," Subramanian said. Instead, the energy sector was the worst-performing sector when Trump was in office, losing 29% even as the S&P 500 surged 83%. Meanwhile, the clean energy sector rose 306% during Trump's presidency, according to data from YCharts. AdvertisementToday, the opposite is true: traditional energy stocks have been the best-performing sector during Biden's presidency, rising 139%, while the clean energy sector is the worst-performing sector, down about 55%. AdvertisementUltimately, Subramanian and her team expect the stock market to rise in 2025 regardless of who wins the election in November.
Persons: , Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Biden, Elon Musk Organizations: Bank of America, Stock, Service, Capitol, Republican, White House Locations: YCharts
Investors are turning their attention to third-quarter earnings season, with 21% of S&P 500 companies set to report this week. Bank of America said that company executives are striking an optimistic tone on earnings calls. The decline on Monday comes as third-quarter earnings season nears its peak, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies set to report results this week, including Coca-Cola, Tesla, Boeing, and UPS. Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian said that company executives are striking an optimistic tone on earnings calls. Analysts have been feeling bullish on the stock's prospects for further gains amid big demand for its new Blackwell chips.
Persons: , Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Blackwell, Fedspeak Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Boeing, UPS, Bank of America . Bank of America, PMI, Here's
Bank of America likes these stocks with secure dividends
  + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Savita Subramanian, equity and quantitative strategist, on Tuesday released a screen for the second quintile of the Russell 1000 by trailing dividend yield. "We advise investors to seek out companies with above-market and secure (not stretched) dividend yields." CNBC Pro then sorted for the names with the highest dividend yields: Zions had the highest dividend yield of the stocks on the screen at 3.47%. The bank stock has climbed around 15% this year, putting it on track to snap a two-year losing streak. Citigroup was further down the list, registering a 3.39% dividend yield.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Russell, Subramanian, Zions, LSEG, Jefferies, Julien Dumoulin, Smith Organizations: of America, Bank, CNBC Pro, AES, ZION AES, Citigroup
The Debate: Goldilocks for Stocks?
  + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Debate: Goldilocks for Stocks? The Investment Committee debate whether we're in a "Goldilocks" situation for stocks after BofA's Savita Subramanian's outlook this morning on Squawk Box.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. is enjoying a 'Goldilocks' moment, says BofA's Savita SubramanianSavita Subramanian, BofA Securities head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, what to expect from today's September jobs report, the Fed's inflation fight, latest market trends, and more.
Persons: BofA's Savita Subramanian Savita Subramanian Organizations: BofA Securities
A major Wall Street strategist is jumping aboard the story that materials stocks could be at the start of a big rally. That theory played out during last week's rally for Chinese stocks. The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) rose 3% last week, though it was down a bit on Monday and Tuesday. XLB 1M mountain This materials fund is up since the Chinese stock rally began. Bank of America isn't the only Wall Street shop that's bullish on materials given the change in China.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Sherwin, Subramanian, Roth MKM's JC O'Hara Organizations: Bank of America, Linde Locations: China, Freeport, McMoRan
AdvertisementThe large-cap real estate sector benefits from Wall Street's massive investment in data centers, a necessary infrastructure component of the artificial intelligence buildout. AdvertisementIn Subramanian's view, part of the appeal of value sectors is the high dividends they offer. As the Fed's cutting cycle pulls down short-term yields, money market investors will search for new sources of income. She previously noted that dividend yields are especially alluring in real estate. Since 2008, real estate dividends has doubled the proportion of high-quality market cap.
Persons: they're, Subramanian, , Savita Subramanian, BofA's, BofA, Scott Chronert Organizations: Bank of America, Service, CNBC, Bloomberg Locations: China, Beijing
Utility stocks this year have mounted a rally unseen in more than two decades. In the third quarter, utilities are the best out of 11 sectors that comprise the S & P 500, climbing 18%. As a group, utilities are poised to score their largest quarterly gain since George W. Bush was president in 2003. If that holds through yearend, utilities will see their biggest annual advance since 2000, when they surged more than 50%. "Utilities are the hottest sector in the market currently," Wolfe Research Rob Ginsberg said in a note to clients in August.
Persons: George W, Bush, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, hasn't, It's, buildout, Ginsberg, Subramanian, Wells Fargo, Christopher Harvey, Harvey, LSEG Organizations: Utilities, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Constellation Energy, CenterPoint Energy Locations: yearend, The Texas, Houston
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBofA's Savita Subramanian breaks down the areas on which investors should focusSavita Subramanian, BofA Securities head of U.S. equity and strategy, joins CNBC's 'Closing Bell' to discuss value stocks against growth, her playbook for the Fed's easing cycle, and more.
Persons: Subramanian Organizations: BofA Securities
Investors don't need to worry that the market got out over its skis on interest rate cuts, according to Bank of America. The S & P 500 rallied to all-time highs this week after the Federal Reserve issued its first interest rate decrease in four years. Said another way, when looking historically, Subramanian found "no relationship" between returns ahead of the Fed's first cut and 12-month forward performance. On top of that, she said the S & P 500 sitting near a 52-week high heading into the cut has mattered "even less." The S & P 500 has climbed 11% on average over the year following an initial rate cute.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Said Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve
Analysts are increasingly recommending defensive stocks to blunt the impact of an economic slowdown. The S&P 500's consumer staples sector has risen more than 4% in the last month. AdvertisementAmid fears of a recession and increased market volatility, analysts have been pointing to defensive stocks as a safe bet to hedge macro risk. Among defensive sectors — which include things like real estate and financials — investors recently have been pouring into consumer staples in particular. With the Federal Reserve likely to finally cut rates at its meeting this week, defensive stocks could be poised for further growth.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley's, Mike Wilson, Wilson, that's, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian Organizations: Service, Retailers, Walmart, Target, Bank of America, P Global Semiconductor, Financial Times, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Locations: cyclicals
US stocks ended mixed on Monday ahead of the start of the Fed's two-day policy meeting. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a rate cut of 25 or 50 basis points at the end of its meeting on Wednesday. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementStocks close mixed on Monday as traders and investors prepared for the start of the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated policy meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's rate-setting group, is expected to deliver an interest rate cut at 2 p.m. on Wednesday.
Persons: , Savita Subramanian, Apple, Morgan Stanley, Z Organizations: Apple, Service, Federal, Market Committee, Bank of America, Tech, Nasdaq, Broadcom, Nvidia, Micro, Micron Technology Locations: Here's
Traders should look to financials, utilities, and real estate stocks, Savita Subramanian says. Subramanian pointed to large-cap value stocks, and said they "look incredibly attractive." Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementTraders should look to avoid risks and hide in safe dividend stocks as the market faces rising uncertainty, Bank of America chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian said.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Organizations: Service, of America, Bloomberg Television, Business
But there's another lesser-known S&P 500 index that you might not have heard of: the SPW. In contrast, the conventional S&P 500 allocates more weight to the biggest companies based on market capitalization. Big Tech names carry very little debt on their balance sheets, meaning that they are less affected by elevated interest rates. Bank of AmericaIn contrast, the cap-weight S&P 500 is approaching overvalued territory. Examples of SPW index funds include the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) and Goldman Sachs Equal Weight U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF (GSEW).
Persons: , that's, Jack Ablin, LPL, Jeff Buchbinder, Savita Subramanian, Buchbinder, Ablin, haven't, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Big Tech, Business, Bank of America, Cresset, Healthcare, financials, Bank of America's, Equity, RSP
According to Bank of America, one area of the market is set to benefit from increased market volatility: quality stocks, or stocks with strong business models and financial fundamentals. And the cherry on top is that quality stocks — which typically become expensive during downturns — are still cheap despite their recent rally, coming out of a two-decade rut. As seen in the graph below, the high-quality factor serves as a hedge against elevated market volatility. Bank of AmericaQuality is still cheapLuckily for investors, this safe-haven area of the stock market is trading at an attractive valuation. Bank of AmericaWhile quality stocks have recently re-rated to a slight premium, they're still reasonably priced, according to Bank of America.
Persons: , Subramanian, Financials, Schwab Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, PMI, Investors, of, Companies, Equity Locations: of America's
The tech slide has many investors anxious to buy the dip, but now is the time for caution, some say. Communication services and information technology stocks are the two worst-performing S & P 500 sectors this quarter, after having fallen into a correction from their peaks in July. Communication services is more than 11% off its 52-week high, while information technology is more than 12% off its recent high. For much of this year, any dips in the high-flying tech stocks have proven to be a buying opportunity for investors, as the promise of artificial intelligence has traders unable to stay away from these names for long. Investors were buying the dip again midday through the trading session Tuesday.
Persons: Ken Mahoney, We've, Rob Williams, Williams, Savita Subramanian, Jason Draho, CNBC's, Tesla Organizations: Federal Reserve, Asset Management, Sage Advisory, Bank of America, UBS Global Wealth Management, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia
Bank of America sees yet another tailwind for utilities: The sector is a way to play falling interest rates. To that end, CNBC Pro used FactSet data to screen the S & P 1500 utilities sector, looking for companies that meet the following criteria. A total return – the stock price plus the value of reinvested dividends – of at least 10% in 2024. The stock offers a dividend yield of 3.0% and has a 2024 total return of nearly 23%. Year to date, the stock has a total return of nearly 38%, and it offers a dividend yield of 2.5%.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Garrick Rochow, Morgan Stanley, David Arcaro, Diego's, , Fred Imbert Organizations: Constellation Energy, NRG Energy, Mizuho Securities, Bank of America, Utilities, Real, CNBC Pro, Street, CMS Energy, Consumers Energy, CMS, NextEra, Management, Google, CNBC, PPL Locations: Jackson, Michigan, , Florida, 1Q24, Allentown, Penn
Utilities — not tech — are now the hottest trade on Wall Street, according to Bank of America. "Note that the total return of S & P 500 Utilities (the 'tortoise') has been in line with Nasdaq's (the "hare') over the long term." Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU) , a $6.4 billion market cap-weighted fund, has a total return of 22%. The iShares U.S. Utilities ETF (IDU) , with $1.4 billion in assets, has a 22% total return. Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight Utilities ETF (RSPU) , an equal-weighted fund with just $317 million in assets, has a roughly 20% total return in 2024.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, , Invesco, Jesse Pound Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Utes, Utilities, Vanguard Utilities, U.S . Utilities, Fidelity MSCI Utilities Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLarge-cap value stocks are underappreciated and poised to do well, says BofA's Savita SubramanianSavita Subramanian, Bank of America Securities head of U.S. equity strategy, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if the market's too ahead of the Federal Reserve, which part of the equity market needs a strong economy, and much more.
Persons: BofA's Savita Subramanian Savita Subramanian Organizations: Bank of America Securities, Federal Reserve
Bank of America is offering up a selection of stocks to help investors sleep soundly during bouts of market volatility. The picks come on the heels of a roller-coaster week for Wall Street. Here are some of the companies that made the list: Several consumer staples stocks showed up, with the S & P 500 sector up more than 11% this year. PG 1M mountain Shares over the last month Lockheed Martin was another low-beta stock that made the cut. Shares of the aerospace and defense company have rallied more than 21%, outperforming the market year to date.
Persons: Stocks, Savita Subramanian, Gamble, Lockheed Martin Organizations: of America, Wall, Bank of America, Walmart, PepsiCo, Procter, Starbucks, Elliott Management, T Bank, Home Depot, Cisco Systems, Consolidated Edison, New Locations: U.S, China, New York
However, investors can continue generating portfolio income if they snap up the right dividend stocks. Dividend yields that are too high may also raise the question of whether the company can sustain these payments to investors. Data storage player Seagate Technology made the cut, with a three-year annualized dividend yield of 7.9%, according to Bank of America's analysis. Bank of America rates KeyCorp as a buy, and it sees the company and its peers benefiting as the Fed dials back its policy. Devon, which the bank rates as a buy, this week surpassed the Street's estimates on core earnings per share in the second quarter, per FactSet.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Wamsi Mohan, Mohan, Ebrahim Poonawala, Kraft, Merck Organizations: Federal Reserve, FedWatch, Bank of America, Seagate Technology, Bank of, KeyCorp, Devon Energy, Kraft Heinz, Simon Property Group Locations: Devon, Bank
Subramanian said investors should buy defensive stocks so they can "sleep at night." According to Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian, investors should "get used to the volatility." AdvertisementTo combat expectations of continued volatility, Subramanian said investors should buy defensive stocks that would allow them to "sleep at night." "The best hedge is owning high quality stocks," Subramanian said of combating market volatility. Most of these defensive stocks are found in defensive sectors, which include consumer staples, healthcare, real estate, and utilities.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, , They're, Stocks Organizations: . Bank of America, Service, Bank of America, Procter, Gamble, Kroger, PepsiCo, Walmart, Utilities, Investors, Consolidated Edison, Alliant Energy, CMS Energy, Healthcare, Quest Diagnostics, Essex Property Trust, Digital Realty Trust Locations: Essex
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