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Republicans are defending a slim Senate majority in 2026, but Democrats still have a tough fight ahead to take control of the chamber. Another factor that could shake up the Senate map: whether longtime lawmakers like Sen. Mitch McConnell, the outgoing GOP leader, decide to retire. As the battle for the Senate takes shape, here are the key races to watch. Collins defeated former state House Speaker Sara Gideon by 9 points in 2020, even as Joe Biden won the state by 9 points, too. And Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, also a Trump ally, has suggested he might challenge GOP Sen. John Cornyn.

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The GOP-controlled House passes a rules package for 118th Congress with just one GOP defection, NBC’s Kyle Stewart reports. ... President Biden spends his final day in Mexico City at North American Leaders’ Summit. But first: The news that the Justice Department is reviewing Obama Era classified documents found at a think tank tied to President Biden is quite a political gift to Donald Trump. “When is the FBI going to raid the many homes of Joe Biden, perhaps even the White House?” Trump posted on his Truth Social account. 6: The number of shootings recently at or near the homes of New Mexico Democratic political leaders, including the incoming state House speaker.

An analysis of debate schedules by NBC News confirms what many political observers have speculated: The number of debates in competitive 2022 Senate races has hit a new low since 2008. Before 2022, each election saw an average of about 20 debates among the most competitive Senate candidates surveyed. The audience awaits a debate between Ohio Senate candidates, Rep. Tim Ryan, a Democrat, and J.D. He pointed to the recent Pennsylvania Senate debate in which John Fetterman’s stroke-affected performance was widely panned. For instance, far more people likely saw a picture of Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker holding an honorary sheriffs badge on stage than listened to a single minute of his debate with Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock.

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