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The firm is looking at specific levels for the 10-year Treasury yield and manufacturing PMI. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. New research from Bank of America outlined two specific criteria that could serve as signals the rally will continue. AdvertisementMeanwhile, manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in June. "The Manufacturing economy is in the second longest downturn in history with 21 months without two straight months of 50+ PMI.
Persons: , SPW, Russell, Tom Lee Organizations: of America, PMI, Service, Bank of America, Treasury, 6.3ppt, Bank of America Global Research, Federal Reserve, Barclays Locations: outperformance
An equal-weighted version of the S & P 500 has hit thresholds that have historically signaled trouble ahead, according to BTIG. Known as the SPW, the equal-weight S & P 500 measures performance by tracking all the stocks in the broad index at equal exposure. In the cap-weighed version, known in short as the SPX , more exposure is given to stocks with larger market caps. That has only happened five times in the last three decades and sets an "ominous precedent," said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG. .SPX YTD mountain The cap-weighted S & P 500's ascent in 2023 Krinsky said the S & P 500 should test 4,200 points — which is 2.8% off its Friday close of 4,320.06 — if not lower.
Persons: BTIG, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC
The S&P 500 is up 15.7% so far this year, largely driven by a rally in a handful of mega-cap growth stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA.O) and Meta (META.O) that have ridden the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. While the rally has been moderating, BofA remains in "neutral" to "positive" territory on U.S. stocks, with a bias towards equal-weighted stocks, strategists led by Savita Subramanian said. An equal-weight index assigns uniform weights to each constituent, unlike a market capitalization-based index, like the S&P 500, where bigger companies tend to have an outsized influence. Equal-weighted stocks have less volatile earnings, smaller differences in analysts' estimates, and are cheaper and less crowded than growth stocks, Subramanian said. While a "fresh wave of bear narratives around equities have emerged", BofA says the "old economy", which includes value stocks - more prevalent in the equal-weighted S&P 500 - could benefit as much as tech and growth.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, BofA, Morgan Stanley, Susan Mathew, Savio D'Souza Organizations: Dow Jones, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Street, Nvidia, Tech, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Bengaluru
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