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The 10-year Treasury yield started the new year trading around 3.8% after a steep decline in late 2023. Against this backdrop, CNBC Pro asked three strategists and money managers how they would allocate $50,000 with yields rising again. Specifically, he recommended bills with a three- to six-month maturity, which investors can gain exposure to through exchange-traded funds such as the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) or SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF (SPTS) . Exchange-traded funds that offer exposure to these assets include the iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) . Invest in dividend-growing value stocks Newton Investment Management's John Bailer recommended investors solely allocate into value stocks with sustainable and growing dividends.
Persons: Kumar, VGSH, VCIT, John Bailer, JPMorgan Chase, They've, they've, Bailer, Northrop Grumman, James Abate, Abate, Johnson, Geoff Martha, Colgate's Organizations: Treasury, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, CNBC Pro, Sri, Kumar, CNBC, AAA, Exchange, Treasury Bond ETF, Vanguard, Stock Market, U.S, Bloomberg, Newton Investment, JPMorgan Chase, JPMorgan, Northrop, Asset Management, Johnson, Colgate, Palmolive Locations: Bailer's
Investors poured cash into these fixed income ETFs in 2023
  + stars: | 2024-01-09 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy set the tone for the fixed income world in 2023 – right down to which exchange traded funds investors picked to take advantage of higher interest rates. Bond yields have an inverse relationship to their prices, so that when prices decline, yields rise and vice versa. The Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) was another favorite of investors, with about $7.3 billion in net flows in 2023. Indeed, those strategies proved popular with investors in 2023, as the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) and iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) were ETFs with the second and third highest net flows, per Morningstar.
Persons: It's, Paul Olmsted, Matthew Bartolini, Olmsted, Morningstar, , it's, BND, AGG Organizations: Investors, Bloomberg Finance, State Street Global Advisors, Morningstar, SPDR, SPDR Americas Research, Street Global Advisors, State, Treasury Bond ETF, Bloomberg, SGOV, SEC, Treasury, Fed, Vanguard, Bond Market, Core, Aggregate Bond Locations: SPDR Americas, Central
The ETF flowdown: 2023 is back on pace to be a solid year
  + stars: | 2023-12-15 | by ( Kirsten Chang | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
watch nowDespite a sluggish start to the year, a record number of product launches and a red-hot November have put 2023 back on pace to be a solid year for ETFs. Roughly $1 trillion has gone into money market funds this year, but some are questioning whether the solid year-end stock rally will attract some of those flows back into equities. "You saw that enormous cash pileup going into money markets, and ETF flows were muted. "We talked about the money market funds," he said. He pointed to strong inflows into high-yield ETFs such as the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) and SPDR Bloomberg Short Term High Yield Bond ETF (SJNK) — along with dividend ETFs such as the Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 ETF (COWZ).
Persons: Ben Slavin, BNY Mellon, CNBC's, Andrew McOrmond, McOrmond, it'll, SPDR, Slavin Organizations: BNY, WallachBeth, SPDR Bloomberg, Pacer, Cash, Tech, RSP Locations: outflows
High yield bond funds tout sweet yields, but swirling concerns around the economy are spurring questions on how much longer the income party will last. Consider that the 30-day yield on the SPDR Bloomberg Short Term High Yield Bond ETF (SJNK) is 8.78%. Indeed, the Morningstar U.S. high yield bond index has a year-to-date total return of 4.61%, compared to the -1.29% total return on Morningstar's U.S. corporate bond index . Consumers are also a focal point when it comes to the economic outlook, according to Peter Higgins, head of fixed income and senior fixed income portfolio manager at Shelton Capital Management. Being selective about risk UBS is neutral on high yield overall, but positive on short-dated high yield paper of good quality companies.
Persons: Paul Olmsted, Olmsted, Alina Golant, Golant, Peter Higgins, Dow Jones, Shelton's Higgins, Morningstar's Olmsted, Michael Bloom Organizations: Investors, Federal Reserve, Morningstar U.S, Morningstar's, Morningstar, UBS, Shelton Capital Management
One-year Treasury note yields are about a percentage point higher than those on 10-year bonds. That has meant global investors can avoid the relatively less liquid, longer-tenure bonds just for the sake of extra yield and premium. LSEG Lipper data shows U.S. short-term bond funds have outperformed this year, delivering a gain of 2.2% in price terms compared with an average 2.1% dip in long-term bond funds. Most analysts expect short-term bond funds to continue to lure more money in the months ahead. "We are anchoring portfolios with the higher yielding short-term bonds.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Adam Coons, SPDR, MATURITIES, Matt Dmytryszyn, Jeff Klingelhofer, Klingelhofer, Winthrop's Coons, Patturaja Murugaboopathy, Gaurav Dogra, Vidya Ranganathan Organizations: REUTERS, Morningstar, Treasury, Reuters, Winthrop Capital Management, Federal Reserve, SPDR Bloomberg, Thornburg Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Telemus, Bengaluru
The recent jump in market interest rates may have caught some ETF investors off guard, and they are now shifting back into short-term bond funds that can better withstand rising yields. Bond yields move in the opposite direction of price, and long-term bonds see their prices hit harder when rates rise. As a result, investors are shifting into short-term bond funds. The following short-term bond ETFs were in the top 10 for net inflows over the past week, according to FactSet. The upward move for bond yields has been particularly acute in the long end of the yield curve.
Persons: Claudio Irigoyen, Fitch, Irigoyen, TLT Organizations: Federal, Treasury, Treasury Bond ETF, Bloomberg, Bank of America Locations: U.S, Japan
The 60/40 portfolio doesn't work anymore, according to Bank of America. If the 60/40 portfolio was on life support last year, this year its demise is now "confirmed," Woodard wrote. Bonds require 40% of the assets in a 60/40 portfolio but have delivered only 25% of the returns since 1920, he noted. Weak bond returns will lead to "another lost decade" for the 60/40 portfolio, in Woodard's words. For income, Bank of America's researchers unveiled a strategy called "dynamic prudent yield" that promises to beat bond indexes while carrying less risk.
Persons: Bonds, Jared Woodard, Woodard, Woodward, Schwab Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, RSP, Vanguard, Energy, P Metals, Mining, Uranium, Research, Government Bond ETF, First Trust, Income, Muni Bond ETF, Muni, Blackstone Senior Loan, of America, Bond, SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF, US, iShares, Securities ETF, VanEck Preferred Securities, Financials, Bloomberg, Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury
ETF trends reflect a wild first quarter for the stock market
  + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
It's the end of a wild first quarter for stock and bond investors, and ETF flows are reflecting that turmoil. The good news: Despite big market swings , equity and bond ETFs still saw overall inflows in the first quarter. ETF flows year to date: $70 billion inflows Consisting of: Equity: $24 billion inflows Fixed Income: $43 billion inflows Other (currency, etc. ): $3 billion inflows Source: ETF Store While that is still inflow, it is far less than has been typical in recent years. Much of that uncertainty can be seen in a notable pickup in money going into money market funds, traditionally a safe haven asset.
"People look at the ETF as a price discovery tool." And because most of an underlying stock within a bank ETF does not actually trade, investors are able to access liquidity without having to trade individual companies. "And we find that the ETF is the go-to place to get liquidity and to see what the market expects." The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) has fallen nearly 24% since the start of last week, although volumes in the fund were among the highest ever recorded in its 18-year history. Draper said that the larger liquidity story remains strong, and that ETFs are a big driver of that story.
Bond yields and prices move inversely to each other so, as rates rose, prices tumbled – and did so at an inopportune time since stocks were suffering, too. Thus, they have higher interest rate risk and greater price fluctuation. He likes short-term Treasury bond funds and ETFs. Another way to mitigate interest rate risk is to use a barbell: You hold equal amounts of shorter and longer-dated issues. "You don't have to reach too far in terms of credit risk and interest rate risk to capture healthy yield in today's environment."
In many cases, the energy funds didn't even need leverage to outperform, with plain vanilla sector funds seeing massive gains. The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF has surged in the second half of the year and has a total return of more than 100%. Even with the Turkey outlier, the list overall is still dominated by oil and gas funds, with the VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) generating a total return of 65%. The Advocate Rising Rate Hedge ETF (RRH) and FolioBeyond Rising Rates ETF (RISR) also did their job in buoying investors portfolios. On the inflows side, broad market funds from Vanguard and iShares were the big winners, as those two brands continued to dominate the ETF market.
Potentially, that marks the start of a reversal from this year's pattern, which has seen sharp outflows from high yield funds. High yield bond funds have been beaten down this year, like the rest of fixed income. FlexShares' offerings include the actively managed High Yield Value-Scored Bond Index Fund (HYGV) and the ESG & Climate High Yield Corporate Core Index Fund (FEHY) . To be sure, growing concerns about bankruptcies can hurt high yield investors, even if they never materialize. Because the underlying companies are also essentially investment funds, investors are paying management for both the companies and the ETFs.
NEW YORK, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Soaring interest rates are providing investors with attractive alternatives to stocks, complicating the picture for equities in an already-vicious year. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThat calculus has drastically changed as the Fed hikes interest rates to stave off the worst inflation in decades, bolstering yields on everything from Treasuries to money markets. Money market funds took in $30 billion in the latest week, according to Refinitiv Lipper, while equity funds, taxable fixed income funds, and tax-exempt bond funds all had net redemptions. "We are definitely getting a resizing of that now.”Reuters GraphicsOf course, the alternatives to stocks are far from risk free. Still, the robust yields are likely to continue presenting a challenge to stocks, investors said.
One option could be inverse Treasury ETFs, which should rise along with rates. For example, the ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBF) has gained more than 30% this year. Other major floating rate funds include the Invesco Senior Loan ETF (BKLN) and SPDR Bloomberg Investment Grade Floating Rate ETF (FLRN) . Another fund that has had success this year is FolioBeyond's Rising Rates ETF (RISR) . This smaller fund invests in Treasury bonds and interest-only mortgage-backed securities, which can benefit from rising rates as mortgage refinancings decline.
The JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF ha s pulled in more than $3.5 billion of new money this year. AllianceBernstein launched its first ETFs last Wednesday, including the AB Ultra Short Income ETF , a fund that invests in debt with less than one year to maturity. An inverted yield curve refers to short-term yields that are higher than longer-dated yields. The combination of quickly rising interest rates and an inverted yield curve creates a couple of benefits for short-duration funds. AllianceBernstein's municipal ETF has a management fee of 0.27%, while the fee on the ultra short income fund stands at 0.25%.
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