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☆ Shah: U.S. exceptionalism continues into 2025
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailShah: U.S. exceptionalism continues into 2025Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, discusses market resilience amidst global tensions, highlighting a focus on corporate earnings, particularly NVIDIA.

Persons: exceptionalism, Seema Shah Organizations: Shah, Global, Asset Management, NVIDIA

☆ Behind Friday's rally: Traders betting Fed keeps cutting rates next week
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( Hakyung Kim | In Hakyungkim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The monthly jobs report is typically closely-watched watched by traders and creates a reaction in the market. To be sure, storms in the Southeast and the Boeing labor strike were cited as downward pressures on the labor market. To Elizundia's point, fed funds futures are now pricing in 99.9% odds the central bank cuts rates by 25 basis points next week, and an 83.6% chance it lowers borrowing costs by another quarter-point percentage in December. There was no Fed meeting in October. "And yet, a deeper ponder of the numbers suggests that, beneath all the noise and disruption, is a fundamentally slowing labor market.

Persons: —, Dow jones, Elizundia, Seema Shah, Shah, Stocks Organizations: Dow, Boeing, Fed, Federal Reserve, Asset Management, U.S Locations: U.S

☆ What a hot job market means for inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —The US job market is still piping hot. That comes after the Federal Reserve last month cut interest rates by a jumbo half-point, signaling that it is turning its attention from tamping down inflation to keeping the job market steady. But some warn that a still-strong labor market could make it more difficult for inflation to continue cooling. That’s because a low unemployment rate and hot job market underline a strong American consumer, whose spending helps drive up the cost of goods and services. Consumer inflation eased to its slowest annual pace since February 2021 in August, continuing a trend of cooling down in recent months.

Persons: FactSet, ”, Seema Shah, “, Gina Bolvin Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Investors, “, Fed, Asset Management, Labor Statistics, Bolvin Wealth Management Group, International Longshoremen’s Association, United States Maritime Alliance Locations: New York, July’s, Israel, Iran, Russia, Ukraine

☆ The jobs number surpassed everyone’s expectations. Cue the complaints about the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

“Did the Fed even need to cut rates in September, let alone cut by 50bps (basis points)?” Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote in a note on Friday. Second-guessing the Fed isn’t new, of course. Central bank officials themselves note the uncertainty inherent in their work, especially when the economy reaches inflection points. Even Fed officials don’t always agree with the central bank’s actions, such as Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, the lone dissenter to the Fed’s decision to cut rates by half a point in September. ‘This isn’t exact science’Fed officials aren’t shy about admitting that they don’t always have confidence in how the US economy will evolve.

Persons: Washington CNN —, Jerome Powell, Philipp Carlsson, Seema Shah, James Knightley, Powell, don’t, Michelle Bowman, wouldn’t, —, ” Carlsson, Szlezak, “, ” Gina Bolvin Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Boston Consulting, Asset Management, ING, Bolvin Wealth Management Locations: Wall, Washington

☆ 'Inflation is not dead': Consumer prices are still in focus for investors despite the Fed's labor-market pivot
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The upcoming inflation report will help determine the Fed's next move. Friday's surprisingly strong jobs data has slashed bets of a half-point rate cut. AdvertisementBut with September's jobs report crushing expectations, concerns may have been premature. AdvertisementHow inflation data could compound these forecasts will be known on Thursday, when the CPI report comes out. Still, with inflation still slightly above the central bank's 2% target , some analysts are cautioning investors not to forget about price pressures.

Persons: Friday's, —, it's, they're, Mohamed El, Erian, Brian Rose, Seema Shah Organizations: UBS, Service, US, Bloomberg, CPI, Fed, Bank of America, Barclays

☆ The September jobs report dashed hopes for another jumbo rate cut next month
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

AdvertisementThe September jobs report offered good news all around — except to those expecting a second straight jumbo 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month. In addition, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, bucking estimates that it would stay unchanged at 4.2%. Analysts agree that September's blowout job numbers make an aggressive interest rate cut harder to justify. Advertisement"Did the Fed even need to cut rates in September, let alone cut by 50 basis points?" Late last month, the bank predicted that investors would take on more risk if the unemployment rate hit 4.1% and if payrolls reached above 150,000.

Persons: —, Seema Shah, Glen Smith, Morgan Stanley, payrolls, Smith Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Asset Management, GDS Wealth Management, Federal

☆ How investors can position their portfolios ahead of the 2024 presidential election
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Jeff Huang | In Jefftchuang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

With about a month to go until the 2024 presidential election, investors are bracing for potential volatility in the markets amid uncertainty over whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will win in November. Differences in Republican and Democratic economic policies mean there are potentially nuanced ways for investors to position their portfolios to make money based on the election outcome. "There will be certainly winners and losers coming out of this election cycle," said John Mowrey, chief investment officer of NFJ Investment Group. "Depending on what happens with corporate tax rates, what happens with regulation and what happens with geopolitics." Watch the video above to find out which sectors and industries stand to benefit the most under each presidential candidate, and what investors can do now to best position their portfolios ahead of the 2024 election.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Seema Shah, John Mowrey, Trump, Paul Hickey, Harris, Biden, Stephen Myrow, hasn't Organizations: Asset Management, Republican, Democratic, NFJ Investment, Investment, Beacon Policy Advisors

☆ Shah: It was a historic move, unexpected but positive, signaling confidence in the U.S. economy.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailShah: It was a historic move, unexpected but positive, signaling confidence in the U.S. economy. Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, discussed the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut, calling it unexpected but a positive move, signaling confidence in the U.S. economy.

Persons: Seema Shah Organizations: Global, Asset Management Locations: U.S

☆ Investors eyeing financial shares and transports as beneficiaries of the Fed rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Frank Holland | In Frank-Holland | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

(This is a wrap-up of the key money moving discussions on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" exclusive for Pro subscribers. Worldwide Exchange airs at 5 a.m. Worldwide Exchange Word of the Day: "Dissent" Jay Woods of Freedom Capital Markets said he's paying close attention to Fed Governor Michelle Bowman becoming the first dissenting Fed Governor since 2005. "I think this is the return of the cyclical trade," said Shah on Worldwide Exchange. Worldwide Exchange Pick: FedEx and Transports FedEx reports after the bell Thursday.

Persons: Jay Woods, Michelle Bowman, Seema Shah, Woods Organizations: Pro, Worldwide, Federal Reserve, Freedom Capital Markets, Management, FedEx, Transports FedEx, Dow

☆ The Fed's biggest interest rate call in years happens Wednesday. Here's what to expect
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The meeting wraps up Wednesday afternoon, with the release of the Fed's rate decision coming at 2 p.m. "I hope they cut 50 basis points, but I suspect they'll cut 25. Here's a breakdown of what's on tap:The rate waitThe FOMC has been holding its benchmark fed funds rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5% since it last hiked in July 2023. The 'dot plot'Perhaps just as important as the rate cut will be the signals meeting participants send about where they expect rates to go from here. In June, FOMC members penciled in just one rate cut through the end of the year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Harnik, they'll, Mark Zandi, that's, Tom Simons, Zandi, Robert Kaplan, There'll, Seema Shah, FOMC, Moody's, Goldman Sachs, Powell presser, Goldman, Simons Organizations: Federal Reserve, Committee, Moody's, Wall, Jefferies, Dallas Fed, CNBC, Asset Management Locations: Washington , DC

☆ Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street braces for retail sales data, Fed policy meeting: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures were flat Monday evening as Wall Street readied for key retail sales data and the start of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. Futures tied to the S&P 500 hovered near the flatline, along with futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average . Investors on Tuesday will parse retail sales data for August for one final glimpse into the health of the U.S. consumer ahead of the Fed rate decision. The results could affect the rate cut outcome. She is forecasting additional 25 basis point cuts in November and December.

Persons: Biden, Dow, Dow Jones, Seema Shah Organizations: Intel, Futures, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple, Fed, CME Group's, September's National Association of Home Builders Housing

Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell said Friday he expects the central bank will cut its key interest rate in the near future in response to slower economic growth and cooling inflation. "The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic. Starting in the spring of 2022, the Fed raised interest rates to a level not seen in nearly two decades as it worked to combat soaring inflation. "Make no mistake, if the labor market shows signs of further cooling, the Fed will cut with conviction," Shah wrote. Lower interest rates will provide some relief to consumer borrowers, but it will not be immediate, according to Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

Persons: Jay Powell, Powell, ” Powell, “, Seema Shah, —, Shah, Greg McBride, McBride Organizations: ”, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, midmorning, Market Committee, Management Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S

☆ ‘The time has come’: The Fed just sent a crucial message about its next move
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

And so does the broader US economy: Economic growth this year has been solid and the Atlanta Fed is projecting that growth hasn’t slipped. “The labor market is cooling, but it’s not getting soft. A slowing job market is also playing a role in nudging the Fed to ease borrowing costs. Translation: The recent weakness in the job market could result in American shoppers curbing their spending more than expected. A big question mark is the future of America’s job market, which is a key driver of the US economy.

Persons: Washington CNN —, “, Jerome Powell, ”, “ Powell, Seema Shah, hasn’t, ” Tom Porcelli, it’s, Powell, cooldown, ” Powell, aren’t, they’re, —, “ There’s, Elizabeth Renter Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Fed, Markets, Asset Management, Atlanta Fed, Treasury, CNN, Walmart, America’s Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, nudging

☆ Why the stock market is going berserk today
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock market is in shambles on Friday, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%. AdvertisementThe US stock market has plunged into chaos as investors digest a streak of negative economic data and disappointing mega-cap-tech earnings. Months ago, signs of a slowing economy would bolster expectations for Fed rate cuts, which are seen as rocket fuel for stocks. "Pressure will escalate on the Federal Reserve as market interest rates will continue the attempt to force their hand." She added: "A September rate cut is in the bag and the Fed will be hoping they haven't, once again, been too slow to act."

Persons: They're, —, John Lynch, Seema Shah, Ryan Detrick, Carson Organizations: Amazon, Service, Investors, Intel, Comerica Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Asset Management, York Fed Locations: New York

☆ Stock futures are flat in overnight trading ahead of key corporate earnings: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-29 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures were flat in overnight trading Monday as investors awaited key corporate earnings and the beginning of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both traded 0.1% higher. That compares to a five-year average earnings beat rate of 77%. "Both 2024 and 2025 consensus EPS are holding up, with 2024 EPS tracking a typical non-recessionary year revision trend. "Inflation is trending lower, supporting Federal Reserve rate cuts," said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.

Persons: Savita Subramanian, Jerome Powell, Seema Shah Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Merck, Pfizer, PayPal, Procter, Gamble, JetBlue, Microsoft, Devices, Bank of, Fed, Asset Management

☆ The inflation report is great news for the prospect of a rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Odds of a cut at the July policy meeting rose, though the strongest odds are still for a September cut. AdvertisementUS stocks edged higher on Thursday after the June consumer price index report showed inflation cooled more than anticipated last month. Odds of a cut at this month's policy meeting edged slightly higher after the CPI report dropped, though the strongest odds are still for a September cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors see about an 80% chance of a rate cut in September, with odds growing for another cut at either the November or December meeting. "The latest inflation numbers put us firmly on the path for a September Fed rate cut," Seema Shah, chief global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, said.

Persons: —, Seema Shah Organizations: Treasury, Fed, Service, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Asset Management

☆ Fed Chair Powell talks up progress on inflation but says rate cuts not imminent yet
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

However, central bank officials still want to see more progress before cutting interest rates, he noted. “The most recent inflation readings, however, have shown some modest further progress, and more good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%,” he added. Fed officials expect to cut interest rates just once this year, according to their latest economic projections in June, compared to the three cuts they forecast in March. The annual PCE inflation rate registered at 2.6% in June, down slightly from 2.7% in May. Fed officials and most economists don’t see a recession this year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell, Inflation, John Williams, ” Seema Shah Organizations: Washington CNN, Inflation, Committee, Financial, ” New York Fed, Congress, Fed, Asset Management Locations: India, United States

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise as traders cheer cooler PCE inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rose Friday as traders took in new inflation data from the Fed's preferred price gauge. PCE inflation cooled to 2.6% last month, the lowest pace of price growth in three years. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS stocks jumped on Friday as traders took in fresh inflation data, which showed price pressures continuing to cool off in May. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Friday:AdvertisementIn commodities, bonds, and crypto:

Persons: —, Seema Shah Organizations: Service, Treasury, Federal, Asset Management, Nasdaq, Nvidia Locations: PCE, Here's

☆ Key Fed measure shows inflation rose 2.6% in May from a year ago, as expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-28 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

May marked the lowest annual rate since March 2021, which was the first time in this economic cycle that inflation topped the Federal Reserve's 2% target. An important economic measure for the Federal Reserve showed Friday that inflation during May slowed to its lowest annual rate in more than three years. Including food and energy, headline inflation was flat on the month and also up 2.6% on an annual basis. Outside of the inflation numbers, the Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed that personal income rose 0.5% on the month, stronger than the 0.4% estimate. Shelter-related costs have proven stickier than Fed officials have anticipated and have helped keep the central bank from reducing interest rates as expected this year.

Persons: Dow Jones, Seema Shah Organizations: Dow, Commerce Department, Federal, Asset Management, Gross, Atlanta Fed Locations: PCE

☆ Stock market today: Stocks jump on cooler April inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rose as traders took in slightly cooler inflation figures. Consumer prices rose 3.4% year-per-year in April, down from the prior month's 3.5% increase. Still, investors have muted expectations for Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. AdvertisementUS stocks jumped on Wednesday as traders took in the latest inflation report, which showed prices cooled slightly in April. Falling inflation has fueled some hope the Fed is set to issue several interest rate cuts this year, which is bullish for stocks.

Persons: —, Seema Shah, Sonu Varghese Organizations: Service, Treasury, Asset Management, Traders, Carson Group

Just as Wall Street appeared to come to terms with the idea of high interest rates sticking around for longer, a cooler-than-expected jobs report on Friday brought the idea of rate cuts back into the conversation. The Labor Department reported that job and wage growth in April came in lower than economists had expected, a shift after months of piping-hot labor market reports. The findings rekindled hopes that the Federal Reserve — which has been looking for signs that interest rates are slowing the economy — may yet cut rates before the end of the year. “This is the jobs report the Fed would have scripted,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. The S&P 500 rose 1.3 percent on Friday, its best day in more than two months.

Persons: ”, Seema Shah, Russell Organizations: Labor Department, Federal, Asset Management

☆ Dow drops by nearly 500 points after a surprisingly bad inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —US stocks fell sharply Wednesday morning after inflation data for March came in higher than expected. That’s up considerably from February’s 3.2% rate and marks the highest annual gain in the past six months. Investors worry this will push back the Fed’s timeline for the rate cuts it has been hinting would come this year. The 10-year Treasury yield, which serves as a standard for mortgage and loan rates, surged after the announcement, approaching 4.5%. Shares of bank stocks fell.

Persons: Dow, “ Today’s, ”, Seema Shah, Wells Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Asset Management, Treasury, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, Apple Locations: New York, Wells Fargo

☆ Wall Street Shudders on Signs of Unexpectedly Strong Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Joe Rennison | More About Joe Rennison | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Signs of stubborn inflation rattled Wall Street on Wednesday, with stock prices sliding and government bond yields, which underpin interest rates throughout the economy, jolting higher. Other major indexes, including the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies, also fell. The moves followed a consumer inflation report that came in hotter than expected, with prices rising 3.5 percent in March from a year earlier, marking another month of stubbornly high inflation. That made it harder for investors to dismiss earlier signs that the progress in cooling inflation was patchy. “The stalled disinflationary narrative can no longer be called a blip,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.

Persons: Russell, ”, Seema Shah Organizations: Nasdaq, Asset Management

☆ Fed caution may be justified if the labor market starts to deteriorate. Here's why that could happen
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

A strong jobs outlook raises the potential of greater inflation pressures, meaning the central bank might be less eager to ease policy. Indeed, there are some signs that the labor market's strength may not be as robust as the headline nonfarm payrolls numbers indicate. Economists both on Wall Street and at the Fed suspect swelling immigration numbers are playing a role in boosting employment and keeping the labor market so tight. With political clamoring intensifying for the U.S. to tighten its border controls, the resilience of the labor market then could be jeopardized depending on how large a role immigration is playing. "Another strong report raises the potential that the deterioration in labor markets we have been expecting will be avoided.

Persons: nonfarm, Seema Shah, Shah, Mohamed El, There's, Goldman Sachs, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Andrew Hollenhorst Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Asset Management, Allianz, Fed, CNBC, Wall, Congressional, Citigroup, Citi Locations: it's, Italy, U.S, South America, Central America, Mexico

☆ Expect tech to continue to benefit from secular tailwinds: Principal's Seema Shah
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect tech to continue to benefit from secular tailwinds: Principal's Seema ShahSeema Shah, Principal Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss what fuels the rally in the year's second half, how much rate cuts matter to equities, and the strategist's stance towards small-cap stocks.

Persons: Principal's Seema Shah Seema Shah Organizations: Asset Management

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