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"Our conversations with investors have been defined by skepticism about latter stages of AI adoption," Ryan Hammond of Goldman's portfolio strategy research team said in a recent note to clients. "Even among investors that are long-term bullish on the potential gains from AI adoption, there appears to be considerable uncertainty about the timeline." Goldman's AI adoption tracker showed that only 5% of U.S. companies are using generative AI to produce goods and services. Many software companies tied to AI posted disappointing guidance during the last earnings seasons that triggered a sizeable sell-off, Goldman noted. Investors should focus on revised sales forecasts of AI-related companies, Goldman said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Ryan Hammond, Goldman, Hammond Organizations: Nvidia, Wall, Investors Locations: U.S
With that in mind, the authors of the note — led by Ryan Hammond — are closely watching downward revenue revisions for signs the AI spending isn't paying off. "Today's hyperscalers will eventually be required to prove that revenues and earnings will be generated from their investments," analysts wrote. "Investors have expressed uncertainty about the return on those investments for the mega-cap tech stocks, but these stocks remain extremely popular," the analysts wrote. Goldman also points out that, according to a measure it tracks, just 5% of companies are currently using AI to produce goods and services. "Adjusting for profits of these companies, the AI capex cycle still pales in comparison to the tech bubble," the analysts wrote.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , they'll, Goldman, Ryan Hammond — Organizations: Meta, Microsoft, Service, Nvidia
Utility stocks are an affordable way to gain exposure to the artificial intelligence trend and hedge against a slowing economy even after the sector's recent rally, according to Goldman Sachs. Yet, utility stocks still remain relatively affordable. Goldman is forecasting above consensus earnings growth of 2% on average in 2026 for the 16 utility stocks it covers. NextEra , Xcel Energy , Sempra and Southern Company offer the best exposure to the data center power demand surge among Goldman's buy-rated stocks, according to the bank. "However, a return to a rising bond yield environment could weigh on the performance of utilities," the Goldman analysts said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Ryan Hammond Organizations: Utilities, Xcel Energy, Sempra, Southern Company, American Electric Power Company, Eversource Energy, FirstEnergy Corp, Federal Reserve, Goldman Locations: U.S
It marks the often-unloved group's third-best showing since 2002, according to Goldman Sachs. Utilities aren't just an AI playOther than their understated connection to AI, utilities are attractive on a valuation basis and as a defensive hedge, according to Goldman Sachs. AdvertisementHowever, utilities are cheap compared to the high-single-digit earnings growth they're expected to produce in the next several years. Goldman SachsBesides being discounted relative to their future growth, utilities serve as a hedge against lower economic growth. AdvertisementOf the 16 utilities stocks covered by Goldman Sachs analysts, only half have a buy rating from the firm.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Carly Davenport, Ryan Hammond, Bill Gross, Sebastien Page, Rowe Price, it's, Page, Goldman, Hammond Organizations: Service, Utilities, Business, Nvidia, Microsoft, Goldman, Federal Reserve
As investors deliberate what's next for the artificial intelligence trade, Goldman Sachs has some long-term winners that can come out on top. But, for the moment, it has bolstered only a handful of companies in what Goldman Sachs is calling the first phase of the AI trade. Goldman Sachs anticipates the long-term winners are in the fourth and final phase. However, Goldman Sachs said the productivity gains to be had from AI would boost earnings per share for the company by roughly 39%. But Goldman Sachs said baseline earnings can jump 162% because of AI.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Ryan Hammond, Hammond, Pinterest Organizations: Nvidia, Nvidia's, Productivity, Wall, Walmart, New York Times
"In addition to NVDA, investors have been focused on a broadening of the AI trade. We expect there will likely be three broad, subsequent stages of the AI trade," Hammond wrote. Goldman foresees a second phase that focuses on companies that build and maintain the infrastructure around AI. "Based on performance and valuation, investors have already started to price subsequent phases of the AI trade. An equal-weighted basket of Phase 2 stocks is up 14% during the past 6 months, largely driven by valuation expansion.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Ryan Hammond, Hammond, Goldman foresees, Goldman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, Broadcom, Foundry, Keysight Technologies, Palo Alto Networks, Intuit, Adobe, Nvidia —, Pinterest, Tenet Healthcare
While the tech giant joins other megacap dividend payers such as Microsoft and Apple , many other large names still pay no dividend, including Alphabet and Amazon . Alphabet has estimated consensus sales growth of 11% for 2024, while Amazon has a consensus estimate of 12% sales growth. RH has a consensus estimate of 4% sales growth for 2024 and a 37% last-twelve-month buyback yield. It has a consensus estimate of 6% sales growth for 2024 and a last-twelve-month buyback yield of 9%. Lastly, Charter Communications has a consensus estimate that predicts 1% sales growth for 2024 and a last-twelve-month buyback yield of 5%.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Ryan Hammond, buybacks, Hammond, Sarat Sethi, That's, Sethi, Goldman, financials, Russell, Meta's, DCLA's Sethi, RH, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Amazon, AutoZone, Communications, StreetAccount Locations: Goldman's, DCLA
Concentrated gains from immediate AI beneficiaries may be overpriced. These 50 stocks have been identified by Goldman Sachs are the longterm winners of AI adoption. So far this year, AI beneficiaries, mainly the mega-cap tech stocks, have contributed to much of the S&P 500's gains. But the sharp price rallies from a handful of technology stocks is making some fund managers uneasy. Goldman Sachs' note refers to this strategy as "The AI trade after the trade".
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Max Wasserman, Ryan Hammond, Goldman Sachs Jonathan Curtis, Hammond, Russell Organizations: Nasdaq, Miramar Capital, Companies, Nvidia, Microsoft, Franklin Equity Group, Curtis, Goldman, Russell
Here are 24 top stocks to buy for exposure to AI, according to Goldman Sachs. Although artificial intelligence (AI) has been on everybody's minds lately, Goldman Sachs thinks investors may still be underselling how influential the technology can be. Goldman Sachs expects that AI will dramatically improve economic productivity and corporate earnings across the market. Stocks should be trading higher now based on how AI will impact businesses in the future, Goldman Sachs argued. Below are the 24 stocks in Goldman Sachs' AI basket, along with the ticker, market capitalization, and forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for each.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Ryan Hammond, Goldman, Hammond, Cashin, Goldman Sachs isn't Organizations: UBS, Microsoft, Intel
The stock market could see significant upside as more companies adopt artificial intelligence, according to Goldman Sachs. The potential stock market upside depends on profitability gains sparked by AI. "Increased economy-wide output could translate into increased revenues and earnings for S&P 500 companies, even beyond those firms directly involved in the development of AI," Hammond said. And the upside in AI isn't limited to companies that make chips that enable the technology, like Nvidia. But there are also risks to Goldman's forecast that could limit potential upside.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, , Ryan Hammond, Hammond Organizations: Service, Nvidia
Buybacks of stocks within the S & P 500 are down 21% in the first quarter of 2023 compared with the same period a year ago, said Goldman Sachs' Ryan Hammond. For the full year, companies in the S & P 500 are expected to spend a total of $808 billion repurchasing shares in 2023, Hammond said. In total, cash spending from companies in the S & P 500 is expected to fall by a relatively modest 1% in 2023, alongside decelerating earnings per share growth. Of the 10, only Meta Platforms and Microsoft have increased their buybacks in the first quarter of this year. META MSFT YTD mountain Meta and Microsoft Facebook-parent Meta increased its share repurchase authorization to $40 billion.
Organizations: & $
Growth stocks have excelled so far in 2023 as inflation and interest rate expectations decline. Goldman Sachs shared 32 high-quality growth stocks that have attractive valuations. Goldman SachsLower bond yields have pushed investors seeking returns back towards growth stocks, which has been a key reason for their strong outperformance year-to-date, according to Goldman Sachs. Stick to high-quality growth in this backdropHowever, the rising tide isn't lifting all growth stocks equally. Goldman Sachs"We recommend investors own high-margin growth stocks and avoid low-margin growth stocks, given the current resilient economic growth pricing within equity markets but pessimistic pricing in rates markets," Hammond wrote.
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