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Among undecided and persuadable voters Personality/behavior No biggest concern Ethics/honesty Ability to do the job Threat to democracy Race/racism/sexism Court cases/convictions Abortion Immigration Other 10 20 30% What, if anything, is your biggest concern about Kamala Harris? Among undecided and persuadable voters Honesty/trustworthiness Judgment/character No biggest concern Economy Lack of experience Ideology Need to know more Immigration Track record Other 10 20 30% What, if anything, is your biggest concern about Donald Trump? Among undecided and persuadable voters Personality/behavior No biggest concern Ethics/honesty Ability to do the job Threat to democracy Race/racism/sexism Court cases/convictions Abortion Immigration Other 10 20 30% What, if anything, is your biggest concern about Kamala Harris? White woman, 30s, Arizona “Little power hungry.”White man, 30s, North Carolina “His authoritative tendencies.”Woman, 40s, Michigan “Probably his rhetoric, maybe, and how he presents himself. Voters specifically mentioned costs and inflation, a persistent concern among undecided and not fully decided voters over the last few months.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Kamala Harris, , He’s, , ” “, Georgia “, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, , Donald Trump’s, Michigan “, doesn’t, Harris, Trump’s, ” Harris, she’s, North Carolina “, She’s, I’m Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College, New York Times, Trump, Wisconsin, North Carolina “, Michigan, North Carolina “ Democrats Locations: Ohio, Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona , Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina , Ohio, Siena, North Carolina
Democrats Say the Joy Is Back. Kamala Harris’s campaign has been trying to get voters to feel the joy. “I would say it’s her energy; she’s a joyful, energetic person.”“It just feels really exciting to turn the corner,” she added. Not only did Democrats use more words indicating joy and hope about the election, they also used words indicating feelings of anxiety and apprehension. Still, more than 25 percent of Republicans in July used words like “scared” or “nervous” to describe their feelings about the election.
Persons: Kamala Harris’s, Bill Clinton, Harris, Biden’s, , Harris’s, Mr, Biden, Tim Walz, . Walz, , Nancy Rohr, “ I’m, we’re, Jeff Fitzsimmons, Donald J, Trump, ” Mr, Kid Rock, Stephanie Rhodes, Joel Daria, they’re, Daria, it’s, Carroll Doherty Organizations: Democratic National Convention, New York Times, Siena College, Times, Republican, Old, Trump, Republican National Convention, , Labor, Pew Research Center Locations: Siena, Arizona , Georgia, Nevada , Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Orange County, Calif, Norman County, Minn, Silverhill, Ala, Dublin , Ohio
Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald J. Trump in three crucial battleground states, according to new surveys by The New York Times and Siena College, the latest indication of a dramatic reversal in standing for Democrats after President Biden’s departure from the presidential race remade it. Ms. Harris is ahead of Mr. Trump by four percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, 50 percent to 46 percent among likely voters in each state. The surveys were conducted from Aug. 5 to 9. The polls, some of the first high-quality surveys in those states since Mr. Biden announced he would no longer run for re-election, come after nearly a year of surveys that showed either a tied contest or a slight lead for Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden. [On question after question, the poll finds that voters don’t seem to have major reservations about Kamala Harris, Nate Cohn writes.]
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald J, Trump, Biden’s, Harris, Biden, Nate Cohn Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College, Mr Locations: Wisconsin , Pennsylvania, Michigan
On Today’s Episode:Arson Disrupts Trains Ahead of Opening Ceremony at Olympics, by Aurelien Breeden, John Yoon and Andrew DasHarris Narrows Gap Against Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds, by Shane Goldmacher, Ruth Igielnik and Camille BakerObama Endorses Harris for the Democratic Nomination, by Jazmine Ulloa and Reid J. EpsteinSpeculation Swirls About What Hit Trump. An Analysis Suggests It Was a Bullet, by Malachy Browne, Devon Lum, and Alexander CardiaTwo Top Mexican Cartel Leaders Are Arrested by U.S. Authorities, by Alan Feuer and Natalie Kitroeff
Persons: Aurelien Breeden, John Yoon, Andrew Das, Shane Goldmacher, Ruth Igielnik, Camille Baker Obama, Harris, Jazmine Ulloa, Reid J, Epstein, Malachy Browne, Devon Lum, Alexander Cardia, Alan Feuer, Natalie Kitroeff Organizations: Times, Democratic, Mexican, U.S . Authorities Locations: Trump
Vice President Kamala Harris begins a 103-day sprint for the presidency in a virtual tie with former President Donald J. Trump, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, as her fresh candidacy was quickly reuniting a Democratic Party that had been deeply fractured over President Biden. Just days after the president abandoned his campaign under pressure from party leaders, the poll showed Democrats rallying behind Ms. Harris as the presumptive nominee, with only 14 percent saying they would prefer another option. An overwhelming 70 percent of Democratic voters said they wanted the party to speedily consolidate behind her rather than engage in a more competitive and drawn-out process. Ms. Harris was receiving 93 percent support from Democrats, the same share that Mr. Trump was getting from Republicans. Overall, Mr. Trump leads Ms. Harris 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters in a head-to-head match.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald J, Trump, Biden, Harris, Mr Organizations: New York Times, Siena College, Democratic Party, Democratic, Mr, Republicans, Times Locations: Siena
Nearly two-thirds of Democrats said President Biden should step aside and allow the party to select a different nominee, according to a new poll from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The survey also found that 70 percent of Americans, including nearly half of Democrats, said they were not confident that Mr. Biden had the mental capacity to be president. That is a marked increase since February, when only about one-third of Democrats said they were not confident in his abilities. Downtrodden Democrats are especially concerned that Mr. Biden can no longer win the election. The new survey, taken from July 11 to 15, as an increasing number of Democratic lawmakers and donors called for Mr. Biden to drop out of the race, demonstrates the growing sentiment among rank-and-file Democrats.
Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump Organizations: AP, NORC, for Public Affairs Research, Democrats, Democratic
President Biden is locked in a tight race with former President Donald J. Trump in Pennsylvania, a state that Mr. Biden barely won in 2020 and that is critical to his re-election hopes, and in Virginia, a state where Mr. Biden defeated Mr. Trump by 10 percentage points in 2020, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College polls. The polls, which were completed before the assassination attempt on Mr. Trump while he was campaigning in Pennsylvania on Saturday, found that Mr. Trump was leading the president by 48 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Pennsylvania. The results are almost unchanged from a New York Times/Siena College poll taken in May and within the margin of error. By almost any Electoral College map calculation, it would be nearly impossible for Mr. Biden to win re-election without Pennsylvania. In that state, Mr. Biden has a lead of 3 percentage points over Mr. Trump among likely voters, which is within the margin of error.
Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump Organizations: New York Times, Siena, Mr, Pennsylvania, Democrats, Trump, Biden Locations: Pennsylvania, Virginia, Siena
President Biden continues to confront deeper doubts among Democrats than former President Donald J. Trump faces among Republicans — even after Mr. Trump was convicted of 34 felony charges last month, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College. The national survey on the eve of the first presidential debate shows that voters have broad distaste for both candidates but that Mr. Trump has so far better consolidated the support of his own party. Only 72 percent of voters who said they cast a ballot for Mr. Biden four years ago say they approve of the job he is doing as president. And voters overall say they now trust Mr. Trump more on the issues that matter most to them. Roughly 90 percent of Republicans still view Mr. Trump favorably.
Persons: Biden, Donald J, , Trump, Mr Organizations: Trump, The New York Times, Siena College, Times Locations: Siena
Almost every path to victory for President Biden relies on strong support from women. But his current standing among women is the weakest lead a Democrat has had since 2004, a key factor in how tight the race is. That’s down from a lead among women of about 13 percentage points four years ago. And since the 2020 election, former President Donald J. Trump’s support among men has recovered and is back to the double-digit lead he had in 2016. But every year that Democrats have won the presidency, they have led among women by more.
Persons: Biden, Biden’s, Donald J Organizations: Democrat, The New York Times, Republicans
In the days since a Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty of 34 felony counts, people have mostly been asking one big question. Over the past few days, our colleagues at The New York Times and at the Siena College Research Institute have been trying to answer that question. They spoke with 1,900 people they had previously polled to find out how they are currently thinking. But some have — and they are moving away from Mr. Trump. This week, Astead speaks with voters about how they are thinking about the presidential race after Mr. Trump’s conviction, including with people in one significant group: Trump supporters who said in October that if he were convicted and sentenced, they would back President Biden.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Astead, Trump’s, Biden Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College Research Institute Locations: Manhattan
It’s one of the biggest questions in the wake of Donald J. Trump’s conviction: Did the verdict change anyone’s mind? Early on, the answer appears to be an equivocal “yes.”In interviews with nearly 2,000 voters who previously took New York Times/Siena College surveys, President Biden appeared to gain slightly in the aftermath of Mr. Trump’s conviction last week for falsifying business records. The group favored Mr. Trump by three points when originally interviewed in April and May, but this week they backed him by only one point.
Persons: Donald J, Biden, Trump’s, Trump Organizations: New York Times, Siena College Locations: Siena
political memoThe outcome of Donald Trump’s Manhattan trial on Thursday had seemed almost unthinkable to the Trump team as recently as last summer. Guilty.”When Mr. Trump got up to leave court, his face looked as if he’d been punched in the solar plexus. Mr. Trump and his allies on Capitol Hill and in conservative media assiduously prepared their audiences to be outraged, whatever the outcome. “There’s a sense of personal resentment,” added the senator, who is on a shortlist to be Mr. Trump’s running mate. He got MAGA’d yesterday,” Mr. Trump said in the hallway outside the courtroom.
Persons: Donald Trump’s Manhattan, Donald J, Trump’s, Trump, Mr, Eric, Eric Trump’s, Steve Witkoff, ” Mr, Witkoff, Adam Gray, Jack Smith, Washington, Tanya Chutkan, Manhattan, Mark Pomerantz, Alvin L, Bragg, Michael D, Cohen, , President Biden, Stephen K, Bannon, Alvin Bragg, Emil Salman, Biden, ” Neil Newhouse, Republican pollster, , Newhouse, , J.D, Vance, MAGA, Robert De Niro, De Niro, ” Ruth Igielnik Organizations: Trump, Republican National Convention, Credit, The New York Times, Democratic, Capitol, Republican, Senate, Republicans, Trump . Credit, Mr, New York Times, Quinnipiac University, “ Voters, Fox, stoke, Biden Locations: Manhattan, Florida, Georgia, New York, U.S, Trump ., Siena, Ohio, Lower Manhattan
Frederick Westbrook, a retired Las Vegas hotel worker, voted for President Biden in 2020 — as a vote to get Donald J. Trump out of office. He now calls that “the biggest mistake of my life.”“As a Black man in America, I felt he was doing unjust things,” he said of Mr. Trump. “Everything is just about the economy,” said Mr. Westbrook, who has started driving for Lyft to support himself on a fixed income in retirement. “I don’t really trust Donald Trump at all. I just think housing, food, my car, my insurance, every single piece of living has gone up.”In a recent set of polls, Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden in five of six key battleground states, including Nevada.
Persons: Frederick Westbrook, Biden, , Donald J, Trump, , “ He’s, Westbrook, , Donald Trump Organizations: Mr Locations: Las Vegas, America, Nevada
Nearly one in five voters in battleground states says that President Biden is responsible for ending the constitutional right to abortion, a new poll found, despite the fact that he supports abortion rights and that his opponent Donald J. Trump appointed three Supreme Court justices who made it possible to overturn Roe v. Wade. Trump supporters and voters with less education were most likely to attribute responsibility for abortion bans to Mr. Biden, but the misperception existed across demographic groups. Twelve percent of Democrats hold Mr. Biden responsible, according to New York Times/Siena College polls in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin and a Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll in Pennsylvania. “I think the buck stops with him, so he had the ability to fight that, and that’s not what I’m hearing that he did,” said Terri Yonemura, 62, an abortion rights supporter in Las Vegas who said she would not vote for Mr. Trump, but is unsure about Mr. Biden, so may not vote at all.
Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump, Roe, Mr, , that’s, , Terri Yonemura Organizations: Wade, New York Times, Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, Mr Locations: Siena, Arizona , Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Las Vegas
Democratic candidates for the Senate in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin lead their Republican rivals and are running well ahead of President Biden in key states where he continues to struggle, according to polls by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College. The battleground surveys of registered voters indicate that the president’s difficulties against former President Donald J. Trump may not be enough to sink other Democrats, especially Senate incumbents who are facing less-well-known Republicans. Ticket-splitters are not abundant — about 10 percent of Trump voters back the Democratic candidate for Senate in the four states, while about 5 percent of Biden supporters back the Republican. But those voters are enough to give Democrats a chance at holding the Senate, where they currently hold a one-seat majority. To maintain control, the Democrats would have to sweep every competitive Senate seat and win the White House.
Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump Organizations: Senate, Republican, The New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, Siena College, Trump voters, Democratic, White Locations: Arizona , Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
When former President Donald J. Trump goes on trial on Monday in Manhattan, President Biden and his allies are not likely to say much. The media coverage will be constant, especially if Mr. Trump takes the stand, which he has floated as a possibility. Mr. Biden and his campaign have said nothing publicly about the criminal indictments against Mr. Trump, worried about improperly influencing the cases or stoking Mr. Trump’s repeated allegations — made without evidence — that Mr. Biden has engineered the charges. Many of the deep-pocketed outside Democratic groups supporting the Biden campaign are charting a similar path. When Mr. Trump goes on trial on Monday, he will be the first U.S. president to face criminal prosecution.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Biden, Trump’s, , Alvin Bragg, , , Steve Schale, ” Mr, Stormy Daniels, Brandon Weathersby, He’ll, Biden won’t, they’re, Donald Trump, Suzan DelBene, ” Lisa Lerer, Ruth Igielnik, Michael Gold Organizations: White, Mr, Democratic, Biden, PAC, New York Times, Siena College, Philadelphia, Republican Party, House Democrats Locations: Manhattan, Michigan , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Scranton, Pa, Pittsburgh, Washington
Views of Donald J. Trump’s presidency have become more positive since he left office, bolstering his case for election and posing a risk to President Biden’s strategy of casting his opponent as unfit for the presidency, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College. While the memories of Mr. Trump’s tumultuous and chaotic administration have not significantly faded, many voters now have a rosier picture of his handling of the economy, immigration and maintaining law and order. Ahead of the 2020 election, only 39 percent of voters said that the country was better off after Mr. Trump took office. Now, looking back, nearly half say that he improved things during his time as president. The poll’s findings underscore the way in which a segment of voters have changed their minds about the Trump era, recalling those years as a time of economic prosperity and strong national security.
Persons: Donald J, Trump’s, Biden’s, Trump Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College Locations: New York
In the run-up to the 2020 election, more voters across the country identified as Democrats than Republicans. But four years into Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s presidency, that gap has shrunk, and the United States now sits almost evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. Republicans have made significant gains among voters without a college degree, rural voters and white evangelical voters, according to a new report from the Pew Research Center. At the same time, Democrats have held onto key constituencies, such as Black voters and younger voters, and have gained ground with college-educated voters. The report groups independents, who tend to behave like partisans even if they eschew the label, with the party they lean toward.
Persons: Joseph R, Biden, , pollsters Organizations: Republicans, Pew Research Center Locations: United States
Republicans who get their news from nonconservative mainstream media outlets are less likely to support Donald J. Trump than those who follow conservative outlets. And sizable numbers from the first group say they think Mr. Trump acted criminally, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll. This division could affect his standing among Republicans in the general electorate — a decidedly different group from G.O.P. One hundred percent of the Republicans in our poll who said they got their news from Fox News or other conservative sources said they intended to support Mr. Trump in the general election. This stands in contrast to Republicans whose main media sources are outlets like CNN and major news organizations: Seventy-nine percent of them plan to vote for Mr. Trump, and 13 percent said they planned to vote for President Biden.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Biden Organizations: New York Times, Siena, Republicans, Fox News, CNN, Mr
In today’s newsletter, I’m going to tell you about some fascinating primary races that will shed light on some broader trends in U.S. politics. Mike Bost, a Republican and Marine Corps veteran, was first elected to the House in 2014. Don’t say ‘age’Democrats have their own issues that are captured in races in their stronghold of greater Chicago. But to the Democratic establishment, “age” is a word not spoken aloud, not with President Biden in the White House. But similar issues driving their primary fights will play out in swing House districts and swing states across the country.
Persons: Mike Bost, He’d, Darren Bailey, Donald J, J.B, Pritzker, Bailey, Bost, Mike, , Trump’s, Matt Gaetz, Trump, Danny Davis, he’s, Melissa Conyears, Ervin, Kina Collins, Biden, Davis, Davis’s, , Jesús, García, Raymond Lopez of, Lopez, Jennifer Medina, Ruth Igielnik, Krystle Kaul, Jennifer Wexton, Eileen, Jennifer Boysko, Dan Helmer, Helmer, Kaul, Suhas, , Kaul bristled Organizations: Illinois’s, Congressional, Republican, Marine Corps, State Legislature, Committee, Veterans ’ Affairs, Trump, Trump Republican, Democratic, House, The Chicago Tribune, Congressional District, American Democrats, Chicago, Mexican American, Republicans, Washington , D.C, Virginia, Army, Democrat Locations: Illinois, Lincoln, Washington, Chicago, Lake Michigan, Illinois’s, Chuy, Raymond Lopez of Chicago, García, Mexican, Virginia, exurbs, Washington ,, Virginia’s 10th, America
Former President Donald J. Trump’s growing support among Latino voters is threatening to upend the coalition that has delivered victories to Democrats for more than a decade, putting the politically divided group at the center of a tug of war that could determine elections across the country. Polls show that Mr. Trump’s standing with Latino voters has grown since his defeat in 2020, with some surveys finding him winning more than 40 percent of those voters — a level not seen for a Republican in two decades. That strength has Democrats playing defense to maintain the large majority of Latino voters whom they have relied on to win in recent years. The shift underscores a stark reality of the 2024 election: Neither party can win with white voters alone. As the fight for both the White House and Congress shifts more squarely to racially diverse states, both parties will need to rely on coalitions that include Black, Asian and Hispanic voters.
Persons: Donald J, Trump’s Organizations: Republican, White House
As he was charged with more crimes and as the trial dates drew closer, the share of voters who said he had committed crimes ticked up. The Trump team has pushed to stall the trials as much as possible, hoping to delay any verdicts until after the general election in November. The share of Americans who say that Mr. Trump committed serious federal crimes, steadily on the rise since the fall of 2022, has declined since December, the latest New York Times/Siena College poll found. Voters across the political spectrum are now less likely to say that Mr. Trump acted criminally. Democrats are 7 percentage points less likely to say that they think Mr. Trump committed crimes, while the share of political independents who said the same is down 9 percentage points.
Persons: Donald J, Trump Organizations: Trump, New York Times, Siena College, Republicans
Not since Theodore Roosevelt ran against William Howard Taft in 1912 have voters gotten the opportunity to weigh the records of two men who have done the job of president. And despite holding intensely and similarly critical opinions both of President Biden and of his predecessor, Americans have much more positive views of Donald J. Trump’s policies than they do of Mr. Biden’s, according to New York Times/Siena College polls. Overall, 40 percent of voters said Mr. Trump’s policies had helped them personally, compared with just 18 percent who say the same about Mr. Biden’s policies. Instead, 43 percent of voters said Mr. Biden’s policies had hurt them, nearly double the share who said the same about Mr. Trump’s policies, the latest Times/Siena poll found. That presidents are frequently remembered more fondly once they leave office is nothing new.
Persons: Theodore Roosevelt, William Howard Taft, Biden, Donald J, Biden’s, Trump Organizations: New York Times, Mr, Gallup Locations: Siena
Widespread concerns about President Biden’s age pose a deepening threat to his re-election bid, with a majority of voters who supported him in 2020 now saying he is too old to lead the country effectively, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College. The survey pointed to a fundamental shift in how voters who backed Mr. Biden four years ago have come to see him. A striking 61 percent said they thought he was “just too old” to be an effective president. The misgivings about Mr. Biden’s age cut across generations, gender, race and education, underscoring the president’s failure to dispel both concerns within his own party and Republican attacks painting him as senile. Seventy-three percent of all registered voters said he was too old to be effective, and 45 percent expressed a belief that he could not do the job.
Persons: Biden’s, Biden Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College, Mr
Voters who want abortion to be “mostly legal” are about twice as likely to say they are making voting decisions based on economic issues over social issues like abortion. The share of voters who prioritize economic issues over social issues has increased by more than 12 percentage points in favor of the economy since the 2022 election, according to Times polling in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. Still, he says he plans to vote for Mr. Trump again because of his economic policies and concerns about the Biden administration’s foreign policy. Mr. Trump has been on many sides of the abortion issue over the years. Recently, he took full credit on his social media platform for being the one who ended the constitutional right to abortion in America: “I was able to kill Roe v. Wade.”
Persons: Joel Graham, it’s, Trump, , Roe, Wade Organizations: Supreme, Mr, Biden, Reform Party Locations: Ohio, Pennsylvania , Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Grant County, Wis, America
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