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Russia's war economy ins't in imminent danger of collapse, economist Vladislav Inozemstev said. AdvertisementRussia may stand a better chance at sustaining its war economy than previously thought. "The people realize that the 'war economy' has substituted the anemic economic condition of the 2010s." Inozemstev said he expected Russia's economy to continue to grow in 2025 and beyond, forecasting 2%-2.5% GDP growth next year. The International Monetary Fund has said it is expecting Russia's economy to expand by 3.6% in 2024.
Persons: Vladislav Inozemstev, , Inozemstev Organizations: Service, Middle East Media Research Institute, Kremlin, Monetary Fund Locations: Russia, Russian, Soviet Union
Russia faces a crisis whether it continues the war or not, economist Alexander Mertens says. War spending has been a major boost to Moscow's GDP growth and wealth, and ending the war will be tricky. If Russia continues the war, the economy looks on track for a "severe recession" and long-running stagnation, Mertens said. "The current state of the Russian economy is far from critical but it does present Putin with a dilemma. The Russian economy is not yet close to collapse, but it is increasingly dependent on wartime conditions and faces growing risks of overheating."
Persons: Alexander Mertens, , Vladimir Putin, Mertens, Merten, Putin, That's Organizations: Service, Kyiv's International Institute of Business, Ukraine, Atlantic Council, Russian National Welfare Fund, Kremlin, International Monetary Fund Locations: Russia, Ukrainian, Ukraine
AdvertisementRussia is flexing its muscles at the center of the BRICS economic bloc, which seeks to rival the West. Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates are the new BRICS entrants, joining the earlier members Russia, India, China, Brazil, and South Africa. He said it had "no chance" of political unity given its members' competing interests and starkly differing attitudes. The greenback, though, will be hard to dethrone — even without competing priorities and rivalry among BRICS members. AdvertisementHe said that while BRICS members were united in a desire for change, "there's no real strategy within BRICS aside from fancy phrases to make it work."
Persons: , Vladimir Putin, Abishur Prakash, Anton Barbashin, South Africa —, Barbashin, Una Aleksandra Berzina, Evgeny Roshchin, Johns Hopkins University's Henry A, Putin, SWIFT, Yakov Organizations: Service, West, United, South, Riddle Russia, Riga Stradins University's China Studies Center, Politico, Center for, Johns, Kissinger Center, Global Affairs, Partners, Bank for International Locations: Russia, Western, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, United Arab Emirates, India, China, Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Russian, Toronto, , Ukraine, standoffs, Moscow
Russia is proposing alternative payment systems and commodity centers. Challenges include entrenched dollar dominance and existing global trading systems' liquidity. Other than championing alternative payment systems based in non-dollar currencies, Russia is also pitching the set-up of centers for mutual trade in commodity resources. Moving BRICS trade to trading centers within the bloc would also involve the use of local currencies and facilitate a move away from using the dollar for trade, according to the document. Russia faces an uphill battle in changing the basics of dollar-dependent financial trading systems.
Persons: , Yakov, Brent Organizations: Service, Russia's Finance Ministry, Partners, Tass, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Grain, country's Agriculture Ministry, Brent, International Monetary Fund Locations: Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, Brazil, India, China, South Africa, Russian, Pakistan, Kazan, masse, Scotland
Russia is breaking down institutions and "borrowing from the future," Konstantin Sonin says. The economist notes Russia is taking measures to exert more control over its economy. But those actions are hurting Moscow's economic future, Sonin said. Konstantin Sonin, a professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, said he foresaw a dark economic future ahead for Russia. Putin's war not only imposes on today's Russians a worse life than they otherwise would have had.
Persons: Konstantin Sonin, Sonin, Organizations: Service, University of Chicago Harris School of Public, Syndicate, Heineken, International Monetary Fund Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Moscow
Russia's economy is staring at "near stagnation," according to Anders Åslund. That's according to Anders Åslund, a Swedish economist who says Russia's economy is taking a bigger hit from Western sanctions than some believe. "My own view is that the current sanctions regime shaves off 2-3% of GDP each year, condemning Russia to near stagnation. AdvertisementRussia's GDP technically grew 3.6% last year, with another 3.2% real GDP growth expected in 2024, according to estimates from the International Monetary Fund. Consumer prices rose 8.5% year-per-year the week of September 17, according to official figures from Russia's Economic Development Ministry.
Persons: Anders Åslund, , Putin, Åslund, SWIFT Organizations: Service, Ukraine, Syndicate, International Monetary Fund, Labor, Economic Development Ministry, Soviet Union, Wealth Fund Locations: Swedish, Moscow, Ukraine, Russia, Soviet
AdvertisementRussia's finance ministry has been discussing yuan loans with its China counterparts — but a delayed decision suggests the two countries' "no limits" partnership may be under strain. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told RIA state news agency in an interview published on Monday that Russia is discussing the issue with Chinese authorities. Russia's finance ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider. However, two years after Russia started its ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia and China appear to be continuing to conduct business as usual. Three of China's Big Four state banks have halted payments from sanctioned Russian financial institutions, Russia's Izvestia news outlet reported on February 21.
Persons: Anton Siluanov, Siluanov, Vladimir Putin, Dong Jinyue, SCMP Organizations: China, Russian, Business, Beijing, Street, China Morning Post, BBVA Research, Russia Locations: Russia, China, Moscow, Ukraine, Madrid, Russian
Economists have said Russia's economy is in rapid decline, evidenced by the plunge in the ruble and soaring inflation. Russia's only problem appears to be its worker shortage, Santi says. AdvertisementEconomists are divided over whether Western sanctions have successfully crimped Russia's economy, or if Moscow has managed to sidestep most of the consequences. Russia, for its part, has put up a show of defiance against Western sanctions, with Putin repeatedly emphasizing the resilience of the economy. In January, the Kremlin's budget deficit was five times smaller than it was last year, Russia's finance ministry said on Wednesday.
Persons: , Michael Santi, Santi, Putin Organizations: Service, Business, Gallup, Bloomberg, Carnegie Endowment Locations: Moscow, Ukraine, European, Russia, Switzerland, Armenia, Serbia, Kazakhstan, Europe
Heating systems are breaking down in Russia's harsh winter, leaving many people freezing. Much of Russia's Soviet-era infrastructure needs modernizing. AdvertisementHeating systems are breaking down in Russia's harsh winter, leaving many people freezing as Moscow continues to spend on its war in Ukraine. The brutal conditions are made worse because Russia's infrastructure is poorly maintained, with many of its facilitates dating from the Soviet era, according to media reports. About 40% of the communal heating grid in the country needs to be replaced urgently, she added.
Persons: , Svetlana Razvorotneva, Vladimir Putin, Denis Volkov, Organizations: Service, Financial Times, Reuters, , Levada Center Locations: Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, Siberia, Soviet, St . Petersburg, The, Russian, Nizhny Novgorod
Read previewThe stash of liquid assets in Russia's national wealth fund has fallen over 44% since Moscow invaded Ukraine, according to a Bloomberg report of Russian finance ministry data on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the national wealth fund's total holdings tumbled 12% over the same period. The massive slump in the national wealth fund's liquid assets came as its holdings in Russian companies and in infrastructure bonds surged by 2 trillion rubles, per Bloomberg calculations. AdvertisementRussia's finance ministry also used around 3 trillion rubles from the fund to cover its budget deficit in 2023 after it doubled defense spending in the same period. Alex Isakov, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, said Russia's national wealth fund's liquid assets will last for another year or two if the country's oil export prices fall below $50 a barrel.
Persons: , Alex Isakov Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, National, Bloomberg Economics Locations: Moscow, Ukraine, Russia, Russia's, Israel
Nov 9 (Reuters) - Russia's finance ministry on Thursday said the state would not take part in organising frozen asset 'exchanges', instead leaving that up to financial market players. International sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine have blocked many Russian investors' access to securities held in jurisdictions outside the country, while Russian countermeasures have frozen Western funds within. "The decree ... creates legislative opportunities for conducting the "exchange" of frozen assets, the state will not take part in organising the exchange itself," the finance ministry said. Organising exchanges was down to brokers and other securities market participants, it said. "The decree refers to the use of foreign investors' funds in type-C accounts."
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Nabiullina, Anton Siluanov, Siluanov, Darya Korsunskaya, Alexander Marrow, Toby Chopra, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Wednesday, Moscow, Central Bank Governor, Finance, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, Ukraine
The CEO of Danish brewer Carlsberg says Moscow has "stolen" its business in Russia. Moscow seized Carlsberg's assets in July, weeks after the brewer announced it had found a buyer for its Russian business. Carlsberg said it's cutting ties with its Russian business as it can't find an acceptable solution to resolve the issue. AdvertisementAdvertisementDanish brewer Carlsberg operates eight breweries and employs more than 8,000 people through its Russian unit, Baltika Breweries. However, on July 16, Russia seized Baltika.
Persons: Carlsberg, Moscow, , Jacob Aarup, Andersen, Dmitry Medvedev, Medvedev, they'd, Baltika, Carlsberg's Organizations: Service, Carlsberg, Baltika Breweries, Carlsberg Group, Financial Times, Russian, Unilever Locations: Moscow, Russia, Carlsberg, Ukraine, British
Russia is leaning more on prison labor amid a dearth of available workers. AdvertisementAdvertisementRussia's worker shortage is so bad, the nation is increasingly leaning on prison labor to prop up its ailing industries and make up for a lack of manpower. That exceeded estimates that Russia made the year prior, when budget makers anticipated bringing in just 15.8 billion roubles from forced prison labor. "The Kremlin has sought to integrate prison labor with certain sectors of the domestic economy to solve this issue." "The recent uptick in the use of forced prison labor in Russia is not merely the transient trend of a post-COVID, economically troubled, or war-hurt Russia.
Persons: , Sergey Sukhankin, Sukhankin, Vladimir Putin Organizations: Service, Moscow Times, Russia's Federal, Jamestown Foundation, Jamestown, Soviet Locations: Russia, Soviet, Ukraine
REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsOct 9 (Reuters) - The rouble rebounded after slumping to a more than 18-month low against the dollar on Monday in a volatile session, still hampered by reduced foreign currency supply but eventually latching on to higher oil prices to gain ground. By 1500 GMT, the rouble was 0.7% stronger against the dollar at 99.75 , recovering from hitting 102.3450 earlier, its weakest point since March 23, 2022. The Russian currency tumbled to a record low 121.5275 in the weeks after Moscow's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The rouble had gained 0.5% to trade at 105.24 versus the euro and firmed 0.6% against the yuan to 13.64 . The rouble-based MOEX Russian index (.IMOEX) was 0.9% higher at 3,172.2 points, earlier reaching a near one-month high.
Persons: Maxim Shemetov, rouble, Alexei Antonov, Alexander Marrow, Angus MacSwan, Mark Potter, Gareth Jones Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Russia, Reuters, Brent, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, Ukraine
A view shows a Russian one rouble coin in front of a screen in this illustration picture taken August 22, 2023. By 1125 GMT, the rouble was 1.8% weaker against the dollar at 102.18 , its weakest point since March 23, 2022. The Russian currency tumbled to a record low 121.5275 in the weeks after Moscow's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The rouble had lost 1.9% to trade at 107.76 versus the euro and shed 2.1% against the yuan to 14.01 . The rouble-based MOEX Russian index (.IMOEX) was 1.3% higher at 3,184.6 points, a near one-month high.
Persons: Maxim Shemetov, rouble, Alexei Antonov, Alexander Marrow, Angus MacSwan, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Russia, Reuters, Brent, Thomson Locations: Russian, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine
This suggests that Moscow is preparing for the war in Ukraine to carry on for years. Observers believe that Russia is hoping Western support for Ukraine will wane. She said that the Russian president was "waiting it out" in the hope that Western support of Ukraine would waver. He has also been unclear about how much he would support Ukraine. "If Trump is reelected, Putin has reason to believe that he could strike a much better deal on Ukraine."
Persons: , Sergei Shoigu, Shoigu, Nina Khrushcheva, Putin, He's, he's, Donald Trump, Trump, Michael McFaul, Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin Organizations: intel, Observers, Service, UK Ministry of Defence, Russia's Finance Ministry, Ministry of Defence, Russian Defence, Armed Forces, International Affairs, The New School, BBC, Republican Locations: Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, New York City
BRUSSELS, Sept 6 (Reuters) - The G7 and allies have shelved regular reviews of the Russian oil price cap scheme, people familiar with the matter told Reuters, even though most Russian crude is trading above the limit because of a rally in global crude prices. The Group of Seven (G7) countries along with the European Union and Australia imposed the price cap mechanism on Russian oil last December, followed by a cap on fuel from February. The idea was spearheaded by Washington to cut Moscow's revenues amid its war on Ukraine while avoiding market disruptions as a result of an EU ban on Russian oil. According to LSEG data, Russian crude has been trading above the cap since mid-July and is currently being traded at around $67 a barrel at Russian crude terminals. Russian refined products such as fuel oil and diesel have also surpassed their caps.
Persons: Julia Payne, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Reuters, European Union, General Assembly, Brent, U.S . Treasury, Thomson Locations: BRUSSELS, Australia, United States, Washington, Ukraine, Russian Urals, Russia, Western, Russian, U.S
Russia's deputy finance minister said the country will not let foreign banks exit the market easily, per Reuters. Russia's decision to allow the banks to leave will "depend on the decision to unfreeze Russian assets," he said. It is not clear how many of these Russian assets were frozen by Western banks. AdvertisementAdvertisementMoiseev said at the Friday forum that there's one foreign bank applying to sell its assets in Russia, per Reuters. That jumped to nearly $10 billion at the end of March 2023, per the FT.AdvertisementAdvertisementRussia's finance ministry, Kyiv School of Economics, Bank of China, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China did not immediately respond to requests from Insider for comment.
Persons: Alexei Moiseev, Vladimir Putin's, it's, , Moiseev, Raiffeisen Organizations: Reuters, Service, Yale University, Raiffeisen, Kyiv School of Economics, Bank of China, Industrial, Commercial Bank of, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of, Financial Times, Agricultural Bank of China Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, Russian, Ukraine, Moscow, Commercial Bank of China, China, Agricultural Bank of China
Traders in the Gulf state have ramped up business in Russian oil and gold markets, the WSJ reported. Conversely, Russians are flocking to the UAE, bringing their wealth to its economy and sparking a real estate boom. That's as sanctions and trade restrictions have weighed heavily on Russia's economy, cutting it off from billions of its foreign reserves and crimping its energy trade. Russians were the third-largest group of real estate buyers in Dubai over the last quarter, the real estate firm Betterhomes told the Journal, up from the ninth-largest group in 2021. Russia's economy meanwhile is in a state of turmoil.
Persons: Betterhomes, Putin Organizations: Traders, Service, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Wall, Yale Locations: UAE, Gulf, Wall, Silicon, Russia, Ukraine, Dubai, Poland
A view shows Russian rouble coins in this illustration picture taken March 25, 2021. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/IllustrationAug 9 (Reuters) - The rouble hit a more than 16-month low on Wednesday, hampered by strong foreign currency demand and limited supply, with Russia's shrinking trade surplus and widening budget deficit also hurting sentiment. By 1023 GMT, the rouble was 0.2% weaker against the dollar at 97.32 , earlier hitting 97.48, its weakest point since March 25, 2022. It has been under pressure all year from Russia's shrinking balance of trade, as export revenues fall and imports rebound, dropping around 28% year-to-date from levels near 70 to the dollar. Brent crude oil , a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was 0.7% higher at $86.80 a barrel.
Persons: Maxim Shemetov, Egor Zhilnikov, Alexey Antonov, Antonov, Alexander Marrow, Andrew Heavens, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Alor Broker, Brent, Thomson Locations: Alor
Aug 3 (Reuters) - The United States remains confident that the Group of Seven's price cap on Russian oil is working to squeeze Moscow's revenues and stabilize energy markets despite a recent upturn in prices, a senior U.S. Treasury official said on Thursday. Van Nostrand said Russian data showed federal government oil revenues were nearly 50% lower in the first half of 2023 than a year earlier, and Russian oil was trading at "a significant discount" to Brent oil. Van Nostrand said the average reported price for Russian Urals had hovered around $60, the level of the price cap, despite widespread expectations that the price would rise in the second half of 2023, and despite recent price increases. Van Nostrand said the cap was continuing to limit Russian revenues, while giving "non-coalition buyers additional leverage to negotiate prices down." Still, Van Nostrand said Washington understood that markets could change rapidly, and Russia would keep trying to evade the price cap.
Persons: Eric Van Nostrand, Van Nostrand, Washington, Andrea Shalal, Timothy Gardner, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Treasury, Economic, European Union, Russian, Russia's Finance Ministry, Thomson Locations: United States, U.S, Russia, Ukraine, Washington, Australia, Brent, Russian Urals, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, China
The Kremlin could pass a new rule allowing it priority rights to acquire shares from exiting foreign firms. This would make it harder for foreign companies to leave the Russian market. Companies in the Kremlin's list of 200 strategic enterprises include food giant Danone and Finnish energy firm Fortum, per the Moscow Times. President Vladimir Putin's regime has also been imposing an increasing number of punitive measures on companies exiting the Russian market. Moscow also charges exiting companies an exit fee of at least 10% of the sale value.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, it's, Vladimir Putin's Organizations: Service, Kremlin, . Companies, Danone, Moscow Times, Financial Times, Interfax, Yale University, Novaya Gazeta Locations: Russian, Moscow, Wall, Silicon, Russia, Ukraine
Russia's economy is going from bad to worse as Western sanctions hammer the country's key sectors. From plunging car sales to a dramatic collapse in its current-account surplus, there's no way to hide Moscow's troubles. Some have even blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for inflicting so much pain on the nation, with Yale researchers saying he's "cannibalizing" Russia's economy in his urge to conquer Ukraine. Insider's Phil Rosen reported that car sales in Moscow have tanked by nearly 75% since the Ukraine war broke out. Plunging exportsAnother sign that Russia's economy is flailing is the dramatic collapse in its current-account balance.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, he's, Putin, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Steven Tian, Insider's Phil Rosen, Tian, Konstantin Sonin, Wagner Organizations: Service, Yale, Energy, Russia's Finance Ministry, University of Chicago Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Russian, Moscow
Russian crude exports rebounded sharply last week to the highest in nearly two months. But the Kremlin's revenue from oil and gas taxes sank 26% in June from a year ago. Meanwhile, Russia's gas exports to Europe have tumbled and were the biggest drag on revenue from that energy source. The Kremlin has tried to prop up oil prices, and recently joined Saudi Arabia in extending voluntary crude production cuts into the summer. However, Russia's previous pledges to trim output were followed by increases in oil exports, suggesting Moscow wasn't actually pulling back on production.
Persons: , Russia's Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Locations: Ukraine, China, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Moscow
But it's not all good news for Russian companies: Due to sanctions, their profits grew just 6% on-year. That's nearly double the 655 trillion rubles Russian companies made in 2021, per the tax service department's statistics. In particular, Russian energy giant Gazprom posted record profits in the first half of 2022, prompting Moscow to impose windfall taxes on the company. Russia's energy revenues have also been hit heavily by restrictions against its exports, particularly after the European Union — a major customer of Russian energy — banned Russian crude oil starting December 5. In the first quarter of 2023, Russia posted a deficit of almost 2.4 trillion rubles — sharply reversing a surplus of more than 1 trillion rubles in the first quarter of 2022.
Persons: That's, it's, , Andrei Belousov Organizations: Service, RBC, Gazprom, European Union, RBC TV Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Moscow
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