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OTTAWA, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the third quarter, data showed on Thursday, avoiding a recession but showing growth stumbling ahead of next week's interest-rate decision. The economy avoided slipping into a technical recession - defined as two consecutive quarter-on-quarter contractions - because second-quarter GDP data was revised up to a 1.4% gain from an initial report of a 0.2% decline, Statistics Canada said. The BoC has remained on the sidelines since July after lifting its benchmark interest rate to a 22-year high of 5% to tame inflation. "The bottom line is that the economy is still sputtering along," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group. Real GDP most likely edged up 0.2% in October after a 0.1% gain in September, Statscan said.

Persons: Doug Porter, Royce Mendes, Bipan Rai, Statscan, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Dale Smith, Divya Rajagopal, Fergal Smith, Mark Porter Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada's, Statistics, BMO Capital Markets, Canadian, U.S ., BoC, Desjardins Group, Bank of Canada, Bank, CIBC Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Canadian, Statistics Canada, North America, Ottawa, Toronto

OTTAWA, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate eased more than expected to 3.1% in October and core inflation measures edged down to their lowest levels in about two years, data showed on Tuesday, likely closing the door to further rate hikes. The Bank of Canada (BoC) targets 2% annual inflation. "If the door wasn't already shut to additional rate hikes, it now should be." The bank projects inflation to hover around 3.5% until mid-2024, before trickling down to its 2% target in late 2025. Dragging the annual inflation rate in October was a 7.8% drop in gasoline prices, which benefited from comparison with a price surge in October 2022.

Persons: Royce Mendes, Simon Harvey, Chrystia Freeland, Justin Trudeau's, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Dale Smith, Fergal Smith, Divya Rajagopal, Chizu Organizations: OTTAWA, Reuters, Statistics, Bank of Canada, BoC, CPI, Desjardins Group, Canadian, Justin Trudeau's Liberal, Thomson Locations: Statistics Canada, Europe, Canada, Ottawa, Toronto

A help wanted sign hangs in a bar window along Queen Street West in Toronto Ontario, Canada June 10, 2022. Canada added a net 17,500 jobs in October, Statistics Canada data showed. The softer-than-anticipated jobs report follows data out earlier this week indicating that the economy likely slipped into a shallow recession in the third quarter. "This will keep the Bank of Canada pinned more fully to the sidelines, although we still believe that rate relief remains a distant prospect." The services sector gained 10,000 jobs, led by information, culture and recreation as well as healthcare and social assistance.

Persons: Carlos Osorio, Royce Mendes, that's, Paul Smith, Doug Porter, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Nivedita Balu, Dale Smith, Louise Heavens, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Queen, West, REUTERS, Statistics, Reuters, Desjardins, Bank of Canada’s, The Bank of Canada, BoC, P, P Global Market Intelligence, CENTRAL BANK, Canadian, BMO Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, Thomson Locations: Toronto Ontario, Canada, OTTAWA, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Toronto

☆ Bank of Canada to leave rates on hold as economy stalls, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem walks outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada June 22, 2020. REUTERS/Blair Gable/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOTTAWA, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada (BoC) will leave interest rates on hold on Wednesday as the economy stalls, analysts said, though many see the central bank warning that future hikes are still possible with inflation hovering well above its 2% target. Weak growth and a modest easing of inflation "should keep the Bank of Canada on hold," he said. Earlier this month, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said the economy was not heading for a "serious recession". Macklem "will need to sound sufficiently hawkish to retain current market pricing, which more or less has the Bank of Canada holding rates steady until 2025."

Persons: Blair Gable, Karl Schamotta, Macklem, Royce Mendes, Steve Scherer, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of Canada, REUTERS, Rights OTTAWA, BoC, Cambridge Global Payments, Desjardins Group, of Canada, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada

Canada created 39,900 jobs, Statistics Canada said, compared with a median forecast for a gain of 15,000. The labor market has been resilient even as the Bank of Canada (BoC) raised its key overnight rate 10 times since March 2022 to cool the economy. Money markets see a 44% chance of another BoC rate hike by year-end, up from 36% before the data were published. "This report alone won't make the Bank of Canada regret holding rates steady earlier this week. Derek Holt, vice president of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, noted a gain of 49,500 people in self-employed jobs.

Persons: Carlos Osorio, Andrew Kelvin, Royce Mendes, Derek Holt, Dale Smith, Fergal Smith, Andrea Ricci, Nick Macfie Organizations: Queen, West, REUTERS, Rights, Statistics, Bank of Canada, BoC, TD Securities, Desjardins Group, Canadian, Scotiabank, Thomson Locations: Toronto Ontario, Canada, Statistics Canada, Canadian, Ottawa, Toronto

☆ Canada unexpectedly sheds jobs in July, central bank seen pausing hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Ismail Shakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Money markets see a 28% chance of a rate hike in September, down slightly from 32% before the data. Money markets see a 60% chance of another rate hike by the end of the year, down from 80% before the data. "I think their (the Bank's) conclusion from this would be that it's probably not a bad idea to pause on the rate hike front," he said by phone. While headline figures indicated some slowness, the average hourly wage for permanent employees - a figure the Bank of Canada watches closely - rose 5.0% from July 2022. "The softer labor market data support our view that the Bank is unlikely to follow through with current market pricing by raising rates further," he said.

Persons: Chris Helgren, Doug Porter, Royce Mendes, Stephen Brown, Statscan, David Ljunggren, Dale Smith, Fergal Smith, Jonathan Oatis, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, Reuters, Statistics, The, BMO Capital Markets, U.S ., Desjardins, North, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Toronto , Ontario, Canada, Canadian, Statistics Canada, North America, Ottawa, Toronto

☆ Analysis: Is Canadian core inflation about to crack? July data could offer hope
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The monthly increases for both measures have been 0.3% or less in seven of the last eight months. The BoC, which will release minutes from its July meeting on Wednesday, has said it doesn't want to tighten more than is needed. Canadians are particularly sensitive to higher borrowing costs after loading up on debt in recent years as house prices soared. The July inflation data is due for release on Aug. 15. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Denny Thomas and Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Benjamin Reitzes, Reitzes, Royce Mendes, Mendes, Fergal Smith, Denny Thomas, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: TORONTO, Bank, Canada's, BoC, BMO Capital Markets, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank of Canada, Desjardins, Thomson Locations: Helpfully

OTTAWA, July 18 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate dropped more than expected to a 27-month low of 2.8% in June, data showed on Tuesday, led by lower energy prices while food and shelter cost increases persisted. Month-over-month, the consumer price index was up 0.1%, Statistics Canada said, which was also lower than the 0.3% forecast. "Inflation is definitely moving in the right direction, but we're seeing stickier and more persistent core measures," said Michael Greenberg, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. The average of two of the Bank of Canada's (BoC) core measures of underlying inflation, CPI-median and CPI-trim, came in at 3.8% compared with 3.9% in May. "The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation, which exclude significant moves in individual categories, show that underlying price pressures remain sticky," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group.

Persons: stickier, Michael Greenberg, Royce Mendes, Mendes, We're, Jules Boudreau, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Nivedita Balu, Dale Smith, Will Dunham, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: OTTAWA, Reuters, Statistics, Bank of Canada's, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, Canada's, Desjardins Group, The Bank of Canada, Mackenzie Investments, Canadian, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: Statistics Canada, Mackenzie, China, Ottawa, Toronto

☆ Bank of Canada expected to hike rates as economy outperforms
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"We expect the Bank of Canada to raise its policy rate to 5.00% and leave the door open to more hikes this fall." Twenty of 24 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the central bank to lift rates by another quarter of a percentage point and then hold them there well into 2024. Money markets see more than a 70% chance of a rate hike on Wednesday, and are fully pricing in such a move by September. Canada added far more jobs than expected in June, according to data published on Friday. "And let's face it, inflation is still above the Bank of Canada's 2% target."

Persons: Royce Mendes, Tiago Figueiredo, Doug Porter, Porter, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Paul Simao Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, BoC, Bank of Canada's, Group, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Canadian, Canada

OTTAWA, July 7 (Reuters) - Canada's economy added far more jobs than expected in June, data showed on Friday, a result analysts said probably seals the deal for another Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate hike next week. The unemployment rate in June increased for the second consecutive month and is now at its highest level since February 2022, though still below a pre-pandemic 12-month average, Statscan said. The June jobs report is the last major economic figure to be released before the BoC's rate announcement on Wednesday. Growth has remained resilient despite nine rate increases totaling 450 basis points since March of last year. The net jobs addition in June, the largest since January, were driven by full-time work.

Persons: Jobs, Statscan, Derek Holt, Royce Mendes, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Dale Smith, Emelia Sithole, Mark Porter Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, BoC, Statistics, Scotiabank, Desjardins Group, Reuters, Canadian, Employment, Thomson Locations: Statistics Canada, Ottawa

The central bank is worried that the Canadian economy is running too hot for inflation to return to its 2% target and that if it waits to act, inflation expectations could rise, making matters worse. The central bank lifted its benchmark rate to a 22-year high of 4.75% this month and is expected to tighten further in July or September. A hard landing for the economy, or a recession, could raise unemployment, something the BoC has been hoping to avoid. "I'm not going to be betting against interest rates and I'm not going to be betting against policy lags." The data has left analysts pushing back their forecasts of a slowdown to later in 2023 or in 2024 but accompanied by higher than anticipated interest rates.

Persons: Karl Schamotta, David Rosenberg, I'm, Royce Mendes, Fergal Smith, Steve Scherer, Denny Thomas, Stephen Coates Organizations: TORONTO, Bank, Bank of Canada's, BoC, Bank of Canada, Rosenberg Research, Desjardins, Thomson Locations: United States, Data, Toronto, Ottawa

Variable rate mortgages in Canada typically require borrowers to make regular payments in fixed amounts. WHAT IS THE EXTENT OF MORTGAGE AMORTIZATION EXTENSION? Both banks had no variable-rate mortgages with amortizations greater than 30 years prior to the start of rate hikes. If interest rates stay high over the next few years, as the central bank has warned, it raises questions about customers' ability to service bigger than anticipated debt at higher rates during renewals. The big banks said most customers are able to cope with higher interest rates as they had passed a rigorous stress test to handle higher interest rates.

Persons: Royce Mendes, Carolyn Rogers, OSFI, Nivedita Balu, Fergal Smith, Steve Scherer, Denny Thomas, Conor Humphries Organizations: TORONTO, Statistics Canada, Royal Bank of Canada, CIBC, Bank of Nova, National Bank, Bank of Canada, BoC, Thomson Locations: Canada, United States, Bank of Nova Scotia, amortization, Toronto, Ottawa

☆ Exclusive: Canada bank regulator says lenders should urgently tackle risks from mortgage extensions
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Nivedita Balu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TORONTO, June 13 (Reuters) - Canada's financial regulator is urging lenders to tackle risks from mortgage extensions at the "earliest opportunity" as many borrowers try to navigate higher mortgage costs after the Bank of Canada's surprise rate hike last week. Canada's central bank has raised interest rates to a 22-year high of 4.75% and analysts are betting on another 25 points increase next month. The regulator had warned in April that though the short-term fix to extend mortgage payment periods helped borrowers, it would keep them in debt for longer. As the interest rate rises, the mortgage payment no longer covers the interest payment portion, which results in the mortgage balance and negative amortization. "We believe risks are still elevated with the prospect of more rate hikes adding to the headwind on mortgage renewals," Rizvanovic said.

Persons: OSFI, Royce Mendes, Mendes, Mike Rizvanovic, Rizvanovic, Nivedita Balu, Denny Thomas, Nick Zieminski Organizations: TORONTO, Bank of, Reuters, Desjardins, Bank of Canada, Bank, Thomson Locations: Toronto

The economy shed a net 17,300 jobs in May, entirely in full-time work, while the jobless rate inched up to 5.2%, Statistics Canada said. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a net gain of 23,200 jobs and for the unemployment rate to edge up to 5.1% in May after staying at 5.0% since December. A series of surprisingly strong economic data and stubbornly high inflation led the Bank of Canada to raise its overnight rate to a 22-year high of 4.75% on Wednesday. "While this is an ugly set of jobs data, the labour force survey is notoriously volatile," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group. Reports on jobs, inflation and gross domestic product are due out ahead of the next policy announcement on July 12.

Persons: Andrew Grantham, Paul Beaudry, Beaudry, Royce Mendes, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Dale Smith, Susan Fenton, Nick Macfie, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: OTTAWA, Statistics, Reuters, Bank of Canada, Bank of, CIBC Capital Markets, Desjardins Group, Canadian, Thomson Locations: Canada, Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Ottawa, Toronto

☆ Analysis: Strong economy puts Bank of Canada's 4-month rate hike pause in doubt
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Inflation, which peaked at 8.1% last year, accelerated for the first time in 10 months in April to 4.4%, more than double the Bank of Canada's 2% target. The recent recovery in Canada's housing market is also putting pressure on prices, analysts say. "The Bank of Canada's penchant for surprising traders means that nothing can be ruled out," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group. Mendes said there could be more than one rate hike in the cards, and Canadians should "brace themselves for a further tightening in financial conditions this summer". "The latest round of data adds weight to our view that the Bank will need to conduct an insurance rate hike at either of its next two meetings," said Jay Zhao-Murray, FX analyst at Monex Canada.

Persons: Stephen Brown, Royce Mendes, Mendes, Macklem, Jay Zhao, Murray, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Denny Thomas, Daniel Wallis Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, BoC, Bank of Canada's, North, Capital Economics, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Desjardins Group, Monex Canada, Thomson Locations: North America, United States, States

☆ Bank of Canada seen holding on rates amid cooling inflation, financial turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem walks outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada June 22, 2020. Last month the Bank of Canada became the world's first major central bank to pause its tightening campaign, leaving its benchmark rate at 4.50%. However, bank failures in the United States and Europe have put central bankers on guard against a widespread credit crunch. All 33 economists polled by Reuters agree that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will hold its key overnight rate steady. "Hiking in this environment would put markets on high alert," said Jay Zhao-Murray, FX Market Analyst at Monex Canada, in a note.

The economy gained a net 34,700 jobs, almost entirely in the private sector, and the unemployment rate held steady at 5.0%, Statistics Canada reported. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast that a net 12,000 jobs would be gained in March and the unemployment rate would edge up to 5.1%. Since December, the jobless rate has stayed just a notch above the record low of 4.9% observed in mid-2022. Thursday's jobs figures as well as robust GDP data released last week are likely to complicate the central bank's plans to avoid further rate moves. There were 18,800 full-time jobs added in the month, and 15,900 part-time jobs.

☆ Bank of Canada and Fed head for historic divergence, in a blow to loonie
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A sign is pictured outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 23, 2017. A lower expected peak for Canadian rates has pressured the Canadian dollar against its U.S. counterpart. ,Canadian rates have peaked below U.S. rates in the three major tightening cycles since the start of the millennium, with the gap ranging between 50 and 75 basis points. "Poring over the national accounts, it's increasingly clear that interest-sensitive demand has wilted in Canada," Warren Lovely and Taylor Schleich, strategists at National Bank of Canada, said in a note after the recent GDP data. Still, there could be a limit to how much interest-rate divergence the BoC will allow, say analysts.

☆ Bank of Canada seen leaving rates unchanged as growth stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem holds a news conference at the Bank of Canada, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Ottawa, Canada, June 22, 2020. "We expect the Bank of Canada to be the first G10 central bank to hold rates," said Jay Zhao-Murray, a forex analyst at Monex Canada. Money markets expect the policy rate to be left on hold on Wednesday but are pricing in another tightening by September. "Look for the Bank of Canada to point to slowing GDP growth and inflation when justifying its decision to maintain the level of rates," said Royce Mendes and Tiago Figueiredo, Desjardins economists, in a note. "The central bank is unlikely to do much to endorse the view that further rate hikes will be necessary," they said.

The jobless rate held steady at 5%, which is just a decimal point higher than the record low, Statistics Canada (Statscan) said. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a net gain of 15,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to edge up to 5.1% in January. "However, that won't stop markets reacting to today's strong data by pricing in a greater probability of further hikes, and pricing out rate cuts," he said. Before the jobs numbers, markets had been betting that the Bank of Canada's next move would be to cut rates. When he announced a pause on rates, Governor Tiff Macklem said it was "conditional" and did not rule out further increases.

[1/2] A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie", is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto January 23, 2015. "We are turning the corner on inflation," Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem told reporters. If the economy evolves as forecast, the bank "expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases," the statement announcing the rate hike said. "Governing Council is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target," the statement said. "The Bank of Canada is back to using forward guidance," said Royce Mendes, director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins.

☆ Strong Canada retail sales forecast adds fodder to rate hike argument
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Ismail Shakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The November monthly sales decline was less than the 0.5% drop analysts expected. By volume, retail sales were down 0.4% in November from October, Statistics Canada said. "Ongoing economic momentum will likely prompt the Bank of Canada to raise rates another 25bps next week," Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group, said in a note. Money markets see a roughly 70% chance of a quarter-point hike by the Bank of Canada next week. Reporting by Ismail Shakil and Dale Smith in Ottawa Editing by Frances KerryOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

OTTAWA, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 6.8% in November as gasoline price rose more slowly, data showed on Wednesday, leaving the door open for another interest rate increase in January. Consumer prices rose 0.1% from October, Statistics Canada said, above analysts' expectations they would be flat. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 5.4% versus a 5.3% gain in October. "Today's data will leave the door open to a 25 basis point rate hike in November," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group. Gasoline prices rose 13.7% after gaining 17.8% in October, largely driven by price declines in Western Canada, Statscan said.

☆ Canada October retail sales up 1.4% on gasoline, seen down 0.5% in November
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

October retail sales gained the most in five months, though it was a notch lower than the 1.5% rise forecast by analysts. September's decline was revised downward a decimal point to 0.6% from a previously reported drop of 0.5%, Statistics Canada said. October sales were driven mostly by price increases at gasoline stations and in food and beverage, Statistics Canada said. In volume terms, retail sales were flat. "Retail sales posted a solid increase in October, though the gain came from higher prices, particularly at gasoline stations," Shelly Kaushik, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note.

OTTAWA, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will study the most recent economic data to gauge whether to raise interest rates further, a deputy governor said on Thursday, adding it would still move forcefully if necessary. "We expect our decisions will be more data-dependent," Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki said in a speech in Montreal, adding the bank was still prepared to be "forceful" with rates if necessary. "We are moving from how much to raise interest rates to whether to raise interest rates." Asked to clarify if being prepared to be "forceful" meant the bank was still prepared to make oversized rate moves, Kozicki said it was a hypothetical. Deliberations ahead of Wednesday's rate hike centered on how supply challenges are resolving, how higher rates are slowing demand, and how inflation and inflation expectations are evolving, Kozicki said.

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