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☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns stocks are in a 'mega-bubble' with the S&P 500 ahead of fundamentals by at least 25%
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-19 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Economist David Rosenberg warns the stock market is in a "mega-bubble." The S&P 500 continues to register new highs and has climbed an incredible 23% so far this year. For investor positioning, here's household equity ownership as a percentage of assets as of the start of this year. Related storiesBy Rosenberg's measure, the S&P 500 is at least 25% higher than where fundamentals suggest it should be. AdvertisementSince then, the S&P 500 has risen to 5,864.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, —, That's, it's, J.P, Morgan Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Federal Reserve

☆ S&P 500 would be lower if this was truly an earnings-driven rally, says David Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailS&P 500 would be lower if this was truly an earnings-driven rally, says David RosenbergDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research founder and president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Rosenberg's thoughts on price action in equities, if there are fears inflation will reignite, and more.

Persons: David Rosenberg David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Rosenberg Research

☆ Don't let September's jobs report fool you — the labor market is still deteriorating at a worrying rate, economists warn
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Small businesses also face tight credit conditions and are slowing hiring. AdvertisementThe September payrolls report seemed to switch the investor narrative around the labor market on a dime. Given the usual lags involved between changes in rates and activity, things will probably get worse for small businesses before they get better." "The labor market is not out of the woods just yet, and I continue to see another hiccup in the jobs market before year-end," Dutta wrote. AdvertisementStill, it's unclear how much pressure the labor market will come under in the months ahead.

Persons: —, bearish David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Samuel Tombs, Tombs, Neil Dutta, Dutta Organizations: Service, Fed, September's, Rosenberg Research, Pantheon, Macro Research, The Conference Board

☆ The Fed's 50 basis point rate cut won't do anything to stop a recession, economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's big rate cut won't stop a recession, economist David Rosenberg says. Rosenberg's bearish call comes one day after the Federal Reserve delivered a jumbo 50 basis point interest rate cut, the Fed's first rate cut since 2020. AdvertisementBut Rosenberg isn't backing down, likening 2024 to 2007, right before the economy slowed and entered a painful recession. He added: "Half the country is in recession right now when we apply data science to the commentary." AdvertisementAs for the soaring stock market, Rosenberg says investors should heed the warning signs coming out of the bond market.

Persons: David Rosenberg, He's, Rosenberg, —, Rosenberg's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, BLS

☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns the Fed is behind on rate cuts — and that a downturn is coming despite 'off the charts' investor sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"Incredibly, the Fed raised rates 500 basis points under a false presumption — by over one million — of just how robust the jobs market was," Rosenberg said. AdvertisementIn addition to the yearly revisions, monthly payroll revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have also been poor more recently. Related storiesOne is a model that aims to enhance the yield curve as a recession indicator by taking into account US businesses' ability to repay debts and the Fed's National Financial Conditions Index. A soft-landing outcome, where the Fed avoids sending the economy into recession, is also still the consensus view on Wall Street. With inflation down under 3% and rate cuts almost surely on the way, such a scenario is still seemingly possible.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez, Vane, Chuck Prince, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Treasury, Pantheon, Labor Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Fed should go and cut rates this week, says Rosenberg Research president
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed should go and cut rates this week, says Rosenberg Research presidentDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Rosenberg's take on the Federal Reserve's move this week, why the economy is in need of rate cuts sooner than September, and the focus on central bank meetings around the world.

Persons: Rosenberg, David Rosenberg Organizations: Fed, Rosenberg Research, Federal

☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession shares 5 signs the US is on the brink of a downturn — all while the stock market shows concerning weakness beneath the surface of record highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But don't bet on a soft landing outcome for the US economy as the Fed gets set to cut rates, says famed economist David Rosenberg. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchRosenberg's downbeat views on the labor market come amid his skepticism about the impressive rallies in major stock-market indexes like the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500. Still, as Rosenberg points out, some say the Fed needs to act urgently as the labor market weakens. Waiting too long to lower interest rates to support the economy will only increase the odds of the job market breaking down." Rosenberg has been consistently bearish on the US economy in recent months, while the labor market has continued to prove him wrong.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Eli Lilly, Russell, Neil Dutta, Dutta Organizations: Service, Fed, Rosenberg Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics ', Survey, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Macro

☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession shares 3 ways stocks resemble some of the biggest bubbles in history — and warns 2 'bona fide' recession signals showed up in May's jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Investors are currently reveling in the 'better', as an ongoing eight-month melt-up once again pushed the S&P 500 to fresh highs this week. But sooner or later, the 'worse' will come, warns David Rosenberg, the founder of Rosenberg Research, who famously called the 2008 recession while working as Merrill Lynch's chief economist. AdvertisementAnother sign the market is out over its skis is the performance divergence between the market cap-weight and the equal-weighted S&P 500 indexes. On June 12, the Dow underperformed the S&P 500 by 0.94%, one of only 71 trading days since 1982 where that's happened, according to Rosenberg's technical analysis consultant, Walter Murphy. AdvertisementIn addition to concerning market technicals, fundamentals could also be in a troubling place in the form of labor market weakness, Rosenberg said.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Rosenberg, Bob Farrell, Walter Murphy, Murphy, — Rosenberg, it's, Louis Fed, Piper Sandler Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Tech, Dow Jones, Dow, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Federal Locations: lockstep

☆ Economy has hit 'stall speed' and could weaken even further from here, says David Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomy has hit 'stall speed' and could weaken even further from here, says David RosenbergDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research founder and president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the data that may have gotten Rosenberg's attention, how the jobs number will impact Rosenberg's view, and more.

Persons: David Rosenberg David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Rosenberg Research

☆ The stock market rally is running on fumes as earnings growth can't keep up with sky-high prices, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is primed for a correction as equity valuations hit historically high levels, according to economist David Rosenberg. AdvertisementThe stock market is "primed for a correction" as earnings valuations hit historically high levels, according to economist David Rosenberg. That suggests that the expansion in the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings valuation multiple to 21x from 18x in October is getting stretched. Wall Street consensus for the S&P 500's 2024 earnings per share is $245, which is the same forecast today as it was in October, before the stock market staged a near-30% rally. AdvertisementThat has informed Rosenberg's consistently bearish view, but the economist did say that high valuations on their own do not mean the stock market can't go higher from here.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, —, " Rosenberg, Rosenberg's Organizations: Service

☆ 'This is where you start bear markets from': A notorious bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns stock-market conditions resemble a major peak more than any time in the last 100 years
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The gauge is shown below in green and red alongside S&P 500 price action in blue. Most strategists at major Wall Street banks, meanwhile, generally see the S&P 500 staying above 5,000 through 2024. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.

Persons: Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, he's, Hussman, —, it's, Warren Buffett, there's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, CPS, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Dynamics, bullish

☆ 'The higher they go, the harder they fall': A veteran bear says US stocks could crash 39% as earnings disappoint — but investors can manage risk by making these 10 moves now
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"And I sort of look at the stock market right now as that clown of the circus blowing up the balloon." That earnings multiple is based on future earnings prospects, the economy, and interest rates. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the yield curve steepens, he said big banks should bring opportunities. "There will be areas to dip your toes in, but not for the overall market," Rosenberg said. He's bullish on long-term bonds and gold as the Fed cuts interest rates.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, he'll, they've, It's, " Rosenberg, he's, He's Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity, Federal Reserve, Nikkei Locations: Japan

☆ 'We are still in a market bubble': A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns the S&P 500 is as vulnerable as it was before its 25% fall in 2022 — and shares 3 signs of hidden weakness
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Just because the current valuation backdrop isn't as extreme as 1999-2000, we are still in a market bubble, and valuations are even more stretched today than they were at the market peaks in 2007, 1990, and 1980." Rosenberg ResearchSecond, the S&P 500 is outperforming the HYG/TLT Ratio. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchAnd third, even tech stocks, which have been overwhelmingly supporting the S&P 500, appear to be running out of gas, Rosenberg said. The same goes for Paul Dietrich, the chief strategist at B. Riley Wealth, who says the S&P 500 could fall 49% when the current bubble pops. The bull market has thrown egg onto their faces again and again: since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 is up a whopping 42%.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg isn't, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, he's, manias, HYG, Michael Hartnett, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Dietrich, Grantham, Carol Schleif Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity Model, Dow Jones, Dow Transports Index, Bank of America's, Bank, America, BMO Family Office

☆ A surprise recession could strike after an unexpected jump in the unemployment rate, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

An unexpected rise in the unemployment rate suggests a surprise recession could hit the US economy, according to David Rosenberg. The unemployment rate is now 0.5 percentage points above its cycle low to 3.9%, which Rosenberg says is a worrying sign. Rosenberg's concern stems from the February jobs report, which showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly rise to 3.9% from 3.7%. AdvertisementBut the Sahm Rule isn't triggered until the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points or more above its low over the past year, not the absolute unemployment rate. But the rise in the unemployment rate is not the only factor concerning Rosenberg.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Claudia Sahm, isn't, Sahm, subsector

☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns stocks look 'eerily similar' to how they did before their 25% drop in 2022 — and says the US economy is still heading for a downturn
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

He is the founder of Rosenberg Research and the former chief economist at Merrill Lynch — and he called the 2008 recession. Rosenberg ResearchRosenberg's model takes into account stock valuations, investor sentiment, market technicals, investor positioning, and macro fundamentals. Here's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which bundles together manufacturing data, bond and stock market performance, housing market activity, and consumer sentiment data. The economy doesn't jump from a tight labor market to layoffs," Rosenberg said in a note on Friday. Labor market and inflation data in the months ahead will tell the story for the US economy.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch —, Rosenberg, It's, —, Louis, GMO's Jeremy Grantham, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Business, Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St, CNN, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Rosenberg, Societe Generale's, Federal, Labor, CPI

☆ Funeral directors share 7 rules of etiquette and their biggest pet peeves they wish everyone knew
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Jen Glantz | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Insider asked funeral directors to share their top etiquette rules and common pet peeves that they wish more people knew. Keep the family room private before the funeralOftentimes, the close family will wait in a private room together before the funeral. Casey said guests should assume it isn't appropriate to visit the private family room before the funeral unless the family has said otherwise. Respect the funeral and the funeral homeDino Cantelmi , the owner and director of Cantelmi Funeral Home in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, says there are a few rules to keep in mind if you've never been to a funeral. Leave your phone in the car or in your pocketBefore entering a funeral, Cantelmi said, one thing people can do is be aware of their cellphone.

Persons: —, you've, Randi Goldstein, Casey, Goldsteins, Raphael, Sacks, Dino Cantelmi, Cantelmi, Lean, Elizabeth Fournier, Fournier Organizations: Service, Social, Cornerstone Funeral Services Locations: Philadelphia, Bethlehem , Pennsylvania, Boring , Oregon

☆ 'I don't believe in fairy tales': A veteran economist shares 10 overlooked reasons why the US economy is bound to contract, even as Wall Street bails on recession calls
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"I don't believe in fairy tales, and I don't believe in new eras," Rosenberg said in a recent interview with Insider. The resumption of student loan payments this fall will also cut into spending, Rosenberg predicted. As excess stimulus erodes, the consumer savings rate is sliding. Higher oil and gas prices are also hurting consumers, Rosenberg said. "And they need the money because they're seeing strains on their finances from this 525 basis point runup in rates start to bite into their debt service capacity."

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, they've, Rosenberg doesn't, it's, Louis Organizations: Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, Federal Reserve, of Locations: Saudi Arabia

☆ China's tanking economy will hurt the US more than some experts think, top economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's flailing economy could impact the US more than some experts think. That's because the US is a top foreign investor in China, economist David Rosenberg said. China also buys 40% of all exports from Chile, 34% of all exports from Australia, and 32% of all exports from Peru. The economic downfall will weigh negatively on the global economy, primarily through trade channels on countries with a high dependency on China," Rosenberg and Bakiskan said. The commodities trade in particular will feel the effects of China's economic problems, and countries that are top exporters of key metals are exposed, Rosenberg and Bakiskan said.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Atakan, Bakiskan, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, footholds Locations: China, Chile, Australia, Peru, Wall, Silicon, United States, Asia, Beijing

☆ Some 70,000 child-care providers may close as federal aid ends, report finds. What that means for parents
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Ana Teresa Solá | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Child care 'is a public good'Experts say that systemic change, such as broader parental leave and more public funding for child care, must be involved in order for child care to improve at a larger scale. The national annual cost of child care was about $10,853 for one child in 2022, the organization Child Care Aware of America found. In 2023, 67% of parents reported to spend 20% or more of their household income on child care, Care.com found. Use the benefits you have availableYour workplace may have some options to help you find care, such as backup care providers or on-site child care. Meanwhile, California, Colorado, Hawaii and New Mexico passed laws to provide universal preschool in the past year.

Persons: Lauren Rosenberg, Taryn Morrissey, Morrissey, Care.com, Katherine Gallagher Robbins Organizations: Portland Press Herald, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, American University, U.S . Department of Labor, D.C, Strong, Society for Human Resource Management, District of Columbia, The National Partnership for Women, Washington, Washington , D.C, National Institute for Early Education Research Locations: Portland , Maine, Hamilton, America, Washington, U.S, California , Colorado , Connecticut, Delaware , Maine , Maryland , Massachusetts, Minnesota , New Jersey , New York , Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington ,, Florida , Iowa , Oklahoma , Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Georgia , Illinois, Maine, New York, , California , Colorado, Hawaii, New Mexico

☆ It would be a 'miracle' to escape a recession and the erosion of credit is similar to 2008, top economist David Rosenberg warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US looks likely to tip into a recession in about six months, according to David Rosenberg. The top economist warned that the deterioration of credit quality is reminiscent of 2008's mortgage crisis. "I think that if we escape this little recession, it'll be a miracle," he told Blockworks' Forward Guidance. "Every penny of the stimulus checks got spent." "We just replaced credit cards with what happened with subprime mortgages 15 years ago," Rosenberg said.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Blockworks, We've, I'm, impact's, there's, Morgan Stanley, Seth Carpenter, we'll, Banks, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Associates, Federal, Bank of America Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ The Dow's latest winning streak is bad news for stocks - and a recession might be underway, top economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-29 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Dow's recent winning streak is a worrying sign, David Rosenberg says. Rosenberg says a recession may be underway, and plunging inflation can be bad news for stocks. For the first time since January 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed in the green for 13 straight sessions before snapping its winning streak on Thursday. Stocks were up 28% at this point in 1987, Rosenberg noted. Rosenberg cautioned investors who expect stocks to soar because inflation has now slowed.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Stocks, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Dow, Rosenberg Research, Federal, North Locations: Wall, Silicon, North American

☆ Amazon seller consultant avoids jail in employee bribery scheme
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Annie Palmer | In Annierpalmer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Rosenberg, 48, is a well-known figure in the world of Amazon third-party sellers. The case provides an unfiltered glimpse into the cottage industry of consultants and brokers that has flourished alongside the growth of Amazon's third-party marketplace. A former Amazon employee was sentenced last year to 10 months in prison, while a consultant who also sold products on Amazon is serving 20 months in prison. In one case, Rosenberg made 33 different PayPal payments worth $18,650 to an Amazon employee in Seattle in exchange for confidential information about third-party seller accounts. He later admitted he made false statements about the case and admitted to bribing Amazon employees in a public apology posted online.

Persons: Ephraim, Ed, Rosenberg, it's, scammers, Joe Nilsen, Sellers, Nilsen, Rosenberg's, Jacob Laufer Organizations: Facebook, Amazon, Street Journal, Prosecutors, Seattle, Bloomberg, CNBC Locations: Brooklyn, China, Seattle

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with economist David Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with economist David RosenbergDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research founder and president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Rosenberg's thoughts on a potential market bubble, why being rational can impede your equity performance, and how Rosenberg is considering sentiment.

Persons: David Rosenberg David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Rosenberg Research

☆ There are parts of the market that are in a bubble, says Rosenberg Research founder
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere are parts of the market that are in a bubble, says Rosenberg Research founderDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research founder and president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Rosenberg's thoughts on a potential market bubble, why being rational can impede your equity performance, and how Rosenberg is considering sentiment.

Persons: Rosenberg, David Rosenberg Organizations: Rosenberg Research

☆ Brace for a recession by September, a 20% plunge in the S&P 500, and a painful credit crunch, top economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

David Rosenberg sees a near-term recession, a 20% hit to stocks, and a damaging credit crunch. The economist panned the Fed for hiking interest rates and said they could hit zero again. (Rosenberg suggested S&P 500 earnings could drop by one-fifth in a recession, to about 3,200 points.) Now we have not just the cost of credit being a problem for the economy, but the availability of credit is going to compound that. Read more: We put 7 burning questions to top economist David Rosenberg.

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