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☆ Vance’s selection solidifies Trump’s hold over the GOP
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +18 min

It’s just a decisive move toward America First on foreign policy.”Trump’s selection of Vance is one of the clearest barometers of the former president’s tightening hold over the GOP. Those included Christian conservatives, the business community, congressional insiders and traditional Republican foreign policy hawks shaped by Ronald Reagan’s vision of the US as the muscular leader of the free world. Instead, with Vance, Trump chose an acolyte and potential successor who could deepen and extend the direction the former president has set for the party. Vance has been most unequivocal in criticizing the internationalist approach to foreign policy centered on robust alliances. With the selection of Vance, Trump has broadcast his belief that he has conclusively won the internal GOP debate over all aspects of US interactions with the world – foreign policy, immigration and trade.

Persons: Ohio Sen, JD, Donald Trump’s, Republican Party’s reorientation, Vance, Trump, Trump’s, ”, Bill Kristol, “, It’s, Mike Pence, Ronald Reagan’s, Geoffrey Kabaservice, Dwight Eisenhower, Sen, Robert Taft, Taft, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George W, Bush, John McCain, Mitt Romney –, Patrick J, Buchanan’s, George H.W, George H.W . Bush, John Bolton, Bolton, James Mattis, Mark Esper, State Rex Tillerson, Mike Pompeo, Ivo Daalder, Barack Obama, Richard Fontaine, Republican Sen, Fontaine, “ Vance, Matthias Matthijs, Vance’s, Ohio Republican unreservedly, Donald Trump, ” Vance, Steve Bannon, Joe Biden, Adam Kinzinger, He’s, he’s, Biden, ” Trump, Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelensky, ” Daalder, ” Matthijs, Putin, Aaron Friedberg, Gabriel Schoenfeld, Nikki Haley, Reagan, Haley Organizations: CNN, Ohio, Republican, GOP, Trump, America, New, Niskanen Center, Republican Party, American Free Trade, NATO, ”, H.R, McMaster, Defense, State, Chicago Council, Global Affairs, Center, New American Security, Johns Hopkins ’ School, International, Senate, Ohio Republican, NAFTA, Fox News, Air Force, National Guard, Businessweek, Taiwan, Biden, Chicago, South Carolina Gov, Ukraine Locations: New York, mollifying, Europe, Soviet Union, China, Canada, George H.W ., Asia, Ukraine, New American, Russian, Johns, America, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Israel, Taiwan, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Milwaukee, Moscow, ”, Wisconsin, Mexico ”, Kabul, Kyiv, Trump

☆ Democrats go public with fears of GOP ‘landslide’ that could jeopardize US democracy
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

CNN —President Joe Biden and his advisers keep issuing unequivocal declarations that he’s staying in the 2024 race, but Democrats aren’t hearing it. “Speaker Pelosi fully supports whatever President Biden decides to do,” a spokesperson said in a subsequent statement. “Donald Trump is on track, I think, to win this election, and maybe win it by a landslide, and take with him the Senate and the House,” he told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins. Trump is currently aheadCNN’s Road to 270 assessment of the electoral map shows Trump in position to win the election. “Donald Trump and the Republicans have loved every minute of watching this discussion,” Rep. Debbie Dingell, who represents the battleground state of Michigan, told CNN’s Jessica Dean.

Persons: Joe Biden, “, Nancy Pelosi, ”, Biden, Pelosi, Vermont Sen, Peter Welch, —, Colorado Sen, Michael Bennet, “ Donald Trump, CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, Adam Smith, ” Smith, Trump, CNN’s Wolf, Ritchie Torres —, Biden —, Clooney, George Clooney, cohosted, “ Joe Biden, ” Clooney, He’s, Rob Reiner, Michael Douglas, ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, doesn’t, Lester Holt, ’ Bennet, Sens, Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester, ” Bennet, Donald Trump, CNN’s, Ronald Brownstein, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Harry Enten, CNN’s Jim Acosta, Hakeem Jeffries, Annie Grayer, Manu Raju, Jeffries, Debbie Dingell, CNN’s Jessica Dean Organizations: CNN, Democratic, Democrat, New York Rep, Congressional Black Caucus, The New York Times, Democrats, Trump, Biden, Hollywood, Democratic National Convention, NATO, NBC, Colorado Democrat, Senate, Republicans, White, House Democratic Caucus, ” Locations: Vermont, Washington, Los Angeles, California, Chicago, Russia, New York City, Georgia , Michigan, Nevada, Michigan

☆ How Biden’s 2024 choice could reshape the Senate and Supreme Court for years
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +18 min

But recent history raises deep questions about whether Democratic Senate candidates can continue to levitate as far above the presidential ticket as polls now show. “A Democratic Senate majority coalition relies on having both Senators from a state such as Michigan,” said Daniel Hopkins, a University of Pennsylvania political scientist. As recently as the 1980s, it was common for voters to split their tickets in Senate races. Still, even that alignment left room for some Senate candidates to swim against this general tide. This history, by itself, doesn’t answer whether Democratic Senate candidates would have better prospects with or without Biden as their presidential nominee.

Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Donald Trump, Republican Sen, Susan Collins of, Trump, Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Sonia Sotomayor, ”, Democratic Sen, Evan Bayh, Bayh, “, —, Sen, Joe Manchin, who’s, Democratic Sens, Sherrod Brown of, Jon Tester, Montana, Bob Casey, Tammy Baldwin, Jacky Rosen, Elissa Slotkin, Ruben Gallego, Kyrsten, Martin Heinrich, Nella Domenici, Pete Domenici, Curtis Bashaw, Andy Kim, Bob Menendez, Rick Scott, Ted Cruz, Collins, Ron Johnson, Daniel Hopkins, — hasn’t, David Bergstein, ” Bergstein, ” Mike Berg, ” Lee Drutman, Drutman, Biden’s, ” Drutman, Democratic pollster, ” Jason Kander, Kander, Hillary Clinton, Clinton, Roy Blunt, doesn’t, ” Kander, ” Bayh, Republican Todd Young, it’s, Ronald Reagan’s, Barack Obama, Obama, Republican Dean Heller, Heller —, Steve Bullock, Jesse Hunt, Hunt, Hopkins Organizations: CNN, Senate, Democratic, Republican, White, GOP, West, Republicans, Biden, Democratic Sens, Democrats, Trump, University of Pennsylvania, don’t, Democratic Senatorial, “ Republicans, National Republican Senatorial, Democratic Senate, ”, White House, Indiana Senate, Democratic Gov Locations: Susan Collins of Maine, Indiana, West Virginia, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, Arizona, New Mexico, New Jersey, Florida, Texas, North Carolina, — Maine, Florida , Iowa, Ohio, New America, Missouri, Southern, Maine, Iowa , Kansas , Kentucky, Montana , South Carolina

☆ An unexpected generational realignment is scrambling the 2024 election
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-15 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —A truism of American politics is that older voters prefer the Republican and younger voters prefer the Democrat. In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney lost the election, but he did better than Democrat Barack Obama among voters 45 and older. Older voters are gravitating to Biden, and younger voters are taking a look at Trump. But older voters have gone in the opposite direction, and instead of favoring Trump, are nearly split in the Marist poll. Despite the shift of older voters in the direction of Biden (and younger voters away from him), I was surprised to see older voters still have reservations about Biden’s age.

Persons: Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, —, Trump, Hillary Clinton, Clinton, Republican Mitt Romney, Barack Obama, haven’t, George H.W, Bush, Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, Republican George W, gravitating, Biden, “ Joe isn’t, ”, Jill Biden, CNN’s Jeff Zeleny, Eric Bradner, Bradner, Linda Van, “, I’d, Ronald Brownstein Organizations: CNN, Democrat, Republican, Electoral, Voters, Trump, Marist, Quinnipiac University, New York Times, Siena College Locations: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, ”

☆ Young men and women are diverging politically. That could shape the 2024 election.
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +18 min

In 2013, the share of self-identified liberals among young women exceeded the share among young men by 5 percentage points; by 2023, that gap was nearly four times as large. (In that survey, young men were substantially more likely than young women to say they rely on YouTube as a major source of news.) (In the Harvard poll, one-fourth of young women identified in some way as LGBTQ, more than double the share of young men.) “He’s got to make up for the defection of young men by winning young women by more, and he’s got to get every young woman he can out to vote,” said Lake, the Democratic pollster. Biden’s best hope of avoiding a catastrophic decline in his youth support is that the number of young women Trump repels exceeds the number of young men he attracts.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, John Burn, Murdoch, ”, Harvard University’s John F, Daniel Cox, William Frey, Melissa Deckman, Gen, “, Trump, John Della Volpe, Joe Biden doesn’t, Della Volpe, White, Deckman, aren’t, Cox, Dobbs, Anna Dean, Dean, ” Della Volpe, he’s, don’t, ” Cox, “ Donald Trump, “ He’s Organizations: CNN, Trump, Biden, Pew Research Center, Financial, NBC, Democratic, Republican, GOP, Institute of Politics, Harvard University’s, Kennedy, Republican Party, Harvard, Democrats, Survey Center, American Enterprise Institute, Biden didn’t, Brookings Metro thinktank, Religion Research Institute, Biden’s, YouTube, Pew, AEI, Blacks, Harvard Poll, Biden won’t Locations: Gaza, New York, Bentonville , Arkansas, America

☆ Biden faces widening partisan split over Israel
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

CNN —President Joe Biden is facing more critical moments this week that will test his fraught relationship with his base over Israel’s war in Gaza and potentially widen the partisan split about the Jewish state that has been building for years. Against this backdrop, partisan polarization about Israel among American voters was already widening years before the brutal Hamas attack last October and the devastating Israeli response it triggered. An array of polls this spring show how the war in Gaza has hardened this partisan split. Nearly half of Democrats, but only a little over one-fifth of Republicans in the CBS poll, said the US should pressure Israel to stop the fighting. “Biden has a Democratic caucus that is putting a lot of faith in this process,” she said.

Persons: Joe Biden, Long, Benjamin Netanyahu, Netanyahu, “, ”, Aaron David Miller, Biden, Harry Truman, Lyndon B, Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George H.W, Bush, Reagan, George W, Donald Trump, Clinton, Barack Obama, Republicans —, Obama, Israel, Biden —, Gallup, Trump, That’s, Chuck Schumer, Mike Johnson, Biden’s, Jamaal Bowman, Cori Bush, Waleed Shahid, Shahid, David, it’s Goliath, David ”, Miller, “ Biden, ’ ”, Ben Rhodes, ” Biden, “ We’re, Saudi Arabia — “, Mark Mellman, Schumer, Sen, Bernie Sanders, Israel’s, Chris Murphy of, Chris Van Hollen, Chris Coons, Tim Kaine, Virginia, Van Hollen, Amanda Klasing, — Organizations: CNN, Israel, Republican, Democratic, Gallup Organization, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Holocaust Memorial, GOP, Whites, Republican Party, Republicans, Gallup, Trump, Chicago Council, Global Affairs, Quinnipiac University, CBS, Liberal, American Israel Public Affairs Committee, AIPAC, National Security Council, Amnesty International, Amnesty Locations: Gaza, Israel, United States, Iran, Quinnipiac, Washington, New York, Missouri, Yom Kippur, Saudi Arabia, Sens, Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware, Rafah

☆ Trump’s immunity case is another reminder that all roads now lead to the Supreme Court
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

CNN —The Supreme Court’s hearing Thursday on former President Donald Trump’s immunity claim will underline a historic power shift. Trump’s relationship has been complex with the court’s conservative majority – despite his instrumental role in establishing it. In sharp contrast, the court’s conservative majority has exerted its influence year after year, without interruption. “There is just much more intense vetting of Supreme Court justices,” said Pierson. “You can tell by the results of the court decisions over the past several years that it is fundamentally different.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, “, ”, Jeff Shesol, Franklin D, John Roberts, Amy Coney Barrett, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Paul Pierson, –, Barack Obama’s, Roberts, Joe Biden, Trump, they’ve, Michael McConnell, Jack Smith, Gore, outvoted, George W, Bush, MAGA, Michael Waldman, ” Waldman, Bill Clinton, Richard Nixon, Nixon, Waldman, ” McConnell, McConnell, Sandra Day O’Connor, Anthony Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, David Souter, George H.W, Pierson, Obama, Brett Kavanaugh, Barrett, Cecilia Munoz, Biden, “ It’s, Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Clinton, ” Shesol, FDR, Shesol Organizations: CNN, White House, GOP, Republican Party, Trump, Republicans, University of California, Democratic, House, White, Constitutional, Center, Stanford University Law School, Brennan Center for Justice, New York University School of Law, Senate, Republican, Federalist Society, Alabama, Electoral, Citizens, Constitutional Law Center, New, Great Society Locations: Berkeley, Manhattan, Florida, “, George H.W . Bush, Shelby County

☆ How Biden hopes to recapture voters scarred by inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +14 min

A majority of Hispanics, and even a plurality of Black voters, said Biden’s policies would cause inflation to rise, the survey found. You can’t not make the contrast and comparison.”These negative retrospective assessments of the Biden and Trump economic records create huge headwinds for the president. “Voters—even past Biden voters who disapprove of his economic record—clearly reject what Trump and Republicans are offering,” Democratic pollster Margie Omero said in an email. After voters were exposed to Biden’s populist arguments, assessments of his economic record improved in the group’s polling, Clark said. But even after hearing that case, most voters in the group’s surveys still gave Biden negative marks for his economic performance, the study found.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden, Biden –, “, ”, Danielle Deiseroth, West Virginia Sen, Joe Manchin, Shawn Fain, Evelyn Hockstein, Adam Green, Michael Tyler, Republican pollster Micah Roberts, It’s, Jim McLaughlin, ” McLaughlin, Roberts, ” Roberts, can’t, ” Tyler, Margie Omero, ’, Bobby Clark, Clark Organizations: CNN, GOP, Trump, Teamsters, Democratic, ACA, West, United Auto Workers, Biden, CNBC, Social Security, Republican, White, NBC News, New York Times, Siena College, CBS, Union, “ Locations: Wisconsin, Michigan, Belleville , Michigan, Scranton , Pennsylvania, Democratic, State, Biden’s

☆ Super Tuesday may underline Trump’s transformation of the GOP
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

His performance so far reflects his success at transforming the Republican Party in his image. The most important message from the primaries is the most straightforward: Trump’s coalition is the dominant faction in the GOP. Like McConnell’s announcement, the choices by GOP elected officials in the primary contest signal their acknowledgement of the party’s direction. The share of GOP elected officials who have endorsed Haley isn’t anywhere near as large as her share of the total vote. But a deeper factor also explains the imbalance in support among GOP elected officials.

Persons: Donald Trump, He’s, Ronald Reagan, Nikki Haley, –, Trump, Reagan, Bob Dole, George W, Bush, Mitt Romney, Whit Ayres, Democrat Grover Cleveland, Republican Benjamin Harrison, ” Ayres, Ayres, Grover Cleveland, ” Chris Wilson, Ron DeSantis, “, ”, Gary Langer, he’s, Kyle Kondik, “ It’s, William Mayer, George H.W, George H.W . Bush, Democrat Al Gore, Haley, Dwight Eisenhower, Sen, Robert Taft, Mitch McConnell, Haley isn’t, Chris Sununu, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Liz Cheney, Wilson, Mike Johnson, McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, Jennifer Horn, Biden, William Galston, Galston, ’, ‘, Kristen Soltis Anderson, isn’t, Eisenhower, “ Trump, ” Galston, ” Trump, Missouri GOP Sen, Eric Schmitt, wouldn’t, he’d Organizations: CNN, Republican, Republican Party, South Carolina Gov, GOP, Washington, Trump, Veteran GOP, White, Democrat, Democratic, Florida Gov, ”, ABC, University of Virginia’s Center, Politics, Northeastern University, Republican internationalists, Republicans, Chicago Council, Global Affairs, Trump’s GOP, New Hampshire Gov, South, Brookings Institution, Biden, Republican National Committee, Missouri GOP Locations: Sunday’s, Iowa , New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan, George H.W ., Southern, Iowa, New Hampshire, Oakland, Washtenaw, Kent, Ukraine, Trump’s, Missouri

☆ How the GOP’s rightward shift on immigration helps explain Trump’s primary success
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

Amid widespread discontent over President Joe Biden’s management of the border, the overall electorate is moving rightward on immigration too, polls show. For now, there’s no question that hardening GOP attitudes on immigration have been critical to Trump’s strong performance through the early primaries. Then, 56% of GOP primary voters said undocumented immigrants should be offered legal status; in last month’s primary, 55% said they should be deported. Immigration ranked as the most important issue for most GOP primary voters in South Carolina, and finished close behind the economy in both Iowa and New Hampshire. McLaughlin said Trump’s dominance among the GOP primary voters most concerned about immigration encapsulates a broader reason for his early success: widespread satisfaction among Republicans about his record in office.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Joe Biden’s, Trump, What’s, “, Donald Trump, ”, Jim McLaughlin, Joe Biden, ’, Nikki Haley, Trump’s, Haley, Leah Askarinam, McLaughlin, Robert P, Jones, Charles Franklin, Adolf Hitler, ” Biden, Biden, Stephen Miller, Charlie Kirk, Miller, Dwight D, Eisenhower, Matt Barreto, Barreto, Democratic pollster, ” Barreto, Maria Cardona, Tom Suozzi, George Santos, Suozzi, Bill Clinton Organizations: CNN, GOP, Republican, Trump, Biden, Edison Research, Immigration, Former South Carolina Gov, Quinnipiac University, Survey, Religion Research Institute, Marquette Law School, Marquette, Gallup, Republicans, CBS, National Guard, Democratic, UCLA, New, Republican Rep, White, House Republicans Locations: Alabama, Mississippi, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Iowa, New York, Wisconsin, Mexico, United States, American, Trump, Marquette, America, Texas, Celinda, Arizona, Nevada, Mexico ”, week’s State, Brownsville

☆ Haley’s voters might decide Biden’s fate in November. Here’s why.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

In New Hampshire, more than 4-in-5 Haley voters said Trump would not be fit to serve again if convicted and that Biden had legitimately won. In that poll, two-thirds of Haley voters in Iowa said they would not vote for Trump in a general election; that number soared past three-fourths of her voters in New Hampshire. One key reason: fully 93% of all GOP-leaning voters said they disapproved of Biden’s performance as president. Madrid believes Biden’s record on immigration is the biggest obstacle to him harvesting support among the Republicans uneasy about Trump. Lake doesn’t agree that any single issue is critical for Biden with the kind of GOP voters who have rallied to Haley.

Persons: Nikki Haley’s, Donald Trump, Haley, Biden, Joe Biden, Haley –, Trump, ”, Smith, Michael Madrid, “ Trump, “, SSRS, “ Donald Trump, that’s, Alan Abramowitz, Ron DeSantis, it’s, Democratic pollster, Biden’s, ” Madrid, Haley herself, ” Jennifer Horn, MAGA …, ” Jim McLaughlin, Trump’s, McLaughlin, Bill McInturff –, –, Lake, Jean Carroll, ’, Taylor Swift, Chris Wilson, Republican pollster, Wilson, ” Wilson, Lake doesn’t Organizations: CNN, South Carolina Republican, Trump, White, GOP, Republican, Democratic, Trump Lincoln Project, Washington Post, University of Maryland, Capitol, CBS, Republicans, NBC News, Republican Party, South, Emory University, Florida Gov, Edison Research, Haley Iowa, Monmouth University, ”, Biden, New Hampshire Republican, NBC, AP Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire, California, Madrid, Washington, South Carolina, ” Madrid, McInturff, Lake, Trump

☆ Analysis: Why DeSantis’ departure isn’t likely to change the dynamic between Trump and Haley
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

The DeSantis and Haley camps each believed they would benefit if the other left the field and created an unambiguous one-on-one race with Trump. In fact, both the Trump and DeSantis campaigns believe that more of the Florida governor’s supporters will likely pick Trump. Any gain or loss for Haley among voters from DeSantis’ decision seems likely to affect the race only marginally, many GOP observers believe. Even at that point in the 2016 race, Trump had won only a cumulative 40% of the votes cast in the GOP primaries. His theory that he could peel away a meaningful number of previous Trump voters simply proved wrong.

Persons: New Hampshire CNN —, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Donald Trump, DeSantis, Haley, Trump, Joe Biden, Haley doesn’t, Biden, winnowing, Whit Ayres, ” Ayres, Texas Sen, Ted Cruz, George Conway, “ Trump, David Kochel, “, he’s, –, Trump’s, ”, Alex Stroman, Trump’s MAGA, MAGA, CNN DeSantis, “ DeSantis, Scott Reed, Bob Dole’s, John Connally, suburbanites, Vivek Ramaswamy, Donald Trump’s, ” Stroman, Jean Carroll, Mike Murphy, – Haley, Sen, Marco Rubio, she’s, Mike Dennehy, John McCain’s, Bill Kristol, Kristol, ” Kristol, Matt Gaetz, Ginger Heald, Ayres, Grover Cleveland, Republican Benjamin Harrison, Reed, Dole, Mike Pence, Pence, ” Reed, “ He’s Organizations: New Hampshire CNN, Florida Gov, GOP, South Carolina Gov, Republican, Trump, CNN, New Hampshire, Democratic, South, University of New Hampshire, Republicans, Texas, nonurban Whites, The, South Carolina Republican Party, Edison Research, Trump Trump, Biden, New Hampshire GOP, Florida Republican, Merrimack Republican, Committee, DeSantis Locations: Manchester, New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina, New, Iowa, DeSantis, As, Hampshire, New York, Trump, The Florida, Trump’s, Texas, Charleston, Polk County, Trump’s Manchester , New Hampshire, Ukraine, Israel, ”

☆ Why Trump’s hold on evangelicals is so hard for DeSantis and Haley to break
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-14 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +15 min

Beyond Trump’s strong overall lead, the survey showed the former president attracting 51% support from Iowa evangelicals, far more than he drew in 2016. But Trump won the state by capturing 44% of evangelicals without a degree, double his share among the South Carolina evangelicals with a degree. This year, DeSantis will likely need to shake Trump’s hold on evangelical voters if he is to finish well enough in Iowa to remain a viable candidate after Monday. Asked if DeSantis can win evangelicals in Iowa on Monday, Vander Plaats pointedly responded: “I think he’ll do very well.”Compared to DeSantis, Haley isn’t betting on evangelical voters nearly as heavily in Iowa. Even in the most optimistic scenario for DeSantis or Haley, Trump’s hold on evangelicals without a college degree looks like a rock in the road for them.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, –, Texas Sen, Ted Cruz, Ron DeSantis, Cruz, DeSantis, Trump, ”, Gary Bauer, Nikki Haley, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Huckabee, Santorum, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Romney, Gary Langer, Trump’s, “ There’s, ’ ”, Bob Vander Plaats, Vander Plaats, Haley isn’t, Rubio, Haley, Robert P, Jones –, “ Trump, ” Jones, Jones, “, ” Bauer, you’ve Organizations: CNN, Yorker, Trump, Texas, Florida Gov, GOP, Des Moines Register, NBC, South Carolina Gov, Republican, McCain, ABC News, Edison Research, –, Public Religion Research Institute, Survey, College, New York Times, The New York Times, Democrats Locations: Iowa, Florida, The Iowa, Nevada , Missouri , Alabama, Georgia , Tennessee, Virginia , Michigan , Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Carolina, New Hampshire, American, America

☆ How Haley could eclipse DeSantis to become the Trump alternative
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +16 min

But many Republican strategists believe that DeSantis’ struggles to connect with voters, and his choice to run at Trump solely from the right, have opened a lane for Haley to eclipse the Florida governor. An array of recent polls, both nationally and in the battleground states, signal that DeSantis and Haley have separated themselves from the rest of the candidates chasing Trump. “Absolutely, Nikki Haley has more upside than DeSantis if they are both viable after the first two,” argued Alex Stroman, a former executive director of the South Carolina GOP. DeSantis, Ayres argued, has “has tried to appeal to some of the ‘always Trump’ voters, but the ‘always Trump’ voters are always Trump for a reason. Nikki Haley seems to have figured out the job is to consolidate the ‘maybe Trump’ voters who supported Trump twice but now … want a different style and different temperament.”Republicans sympathetic to DeSantis argue that it is Haley who has boxed herself in.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Trump, “ You’ve, ”, Tom Rath, Donald Trump, DeSantis, Haley, Republican pollster Whit Ayres, Alice Stewart, Chris Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy, South Carolina Sen, Tim Scott, Scott, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Ted Cruz, Kim Reynolds, Huckabee, Santorum, Cruz, John McCain, Mitt Romney, ’, Ayres, Rath, George W, Bush, “, ” Dante Scala –, –, Scala, GOPers, ” Haley, McCain, Linus, ‘, ’ ”, he’s, Newt Gingrich, Alex Stroman, DeSantis “, ” Ayres, Ayres ’ “, tellingly, MAGA —, dethroning, ” Scala, Mike Murphy, who’s, Joe Biden, ” Murphy, There’s, Sen, Gary Hart parlayed, Hart, Walter Mondale, Chris Sununu, DeSantis ’, Yogi Berra, ” Rath Organizations: CNN, GOP, Florida Gov, South Carolina Gov, ”, Republicans, Trump, Republican, Washington Post, New, New Jersey Gov, South, Huckabee, New Hampshire GOP, University of New, Romney, South Carolina GOP, “, dethroning Trump, Democratic Locations: Florida, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Iowa, New Jersey, Granite State, University of New Hampshire, After New Hampshire, Gaza, DeSantis, Haley, Iowa , New Hampshire

☆ Mike Johnson symbolizes a new turn for the religious right
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +18 min

CNN —The arc of Rep. Mike Johnson’s career encapsulates the shifting priorities of the religious right in the era of Donald Trump. More than half of White evangelicals agreed with that statement as well – the only major religious denomination in which it found majority support. Yet both groups are much more influential inside the GOP coalition, with evangelicals representing nearly one-third of Republican voters and all White Christians about two-thirds. But in Congress, Johnson has also identified more with some of the party’s Trump-era priorities that revolve around demographic change. But each man appears equally committed to a vision of America that elevates the moral and political preferences of conservative White Christians over any other group.

Persons: Mike Johnson’s, Donald Trump, Barack Obama’s, Johnson, MAGA, Long, Trump’s, Trump, Robert P, Jones, Johnson “, ”, Mike Podhorzer, ” Podhorzer, Jimmy Carter, Jerry Falwell, Pat Robertson, James Dobson, ” Jones, Dobson, CNN’s KFile, KFile, he’s, Ron DeSantis, Marjorie Taylor, it’s, ” Johnson, He’s, “, Biden, who’s, PRRI, there’s, Tresa Undem, Undem, White, George W, Bush, Obama, Pete Wehner, Wehner, David Barton, Barton, that’s, ” Wehner, ‘, ” Barton Organizations: CNN, Louisiana Republican, Republican, GOP, Yorker, Trump, Survey, Religion Research Institute, White, AFL, CIO, Republicans, Representatives, Alliance Defense Fund, Defending, Gov, Georgia Rep, Whites, Trinity Forum, ”, NBC News, Trump - Locations: Louisiana, America, White, “, Florida, Mexico

☆ One year out, here’s what we know about how the presidential race will look on Labor Day 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +15 min

CNN —Much remains unknown of course about the presidential general election whose traditional kick-off will come one year from today on Labor Day, 2024. Twenty states have likewise voted for the GOP presidential nominee in all four of those contests. That means 40 of the 50 states, or 80%, have voted the same way in four consecutive presidential elections. In the presidential elections of 2012, 2016 and 2020, though, the states where the margin of victory landed within four points of the national vote total dwindled. Eventually a Democratic choice to write off Florida and Ohio could provide a tactical benefit for the GOP presidential nominee.

Persons: ”, Doug Sosnik, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama’s, Joe Biden’s, Franklin D, Roosevelt, Trump, hasn’t, Obama, Kyle Kondik, Ball, Kondik, Amy Walter, Biden, Crystal Ball, Cook, Trump’s, headwinds, Republican Sen, Ron Johnson, Roy Cooper, Erika Franklin Fowler, “, George W, Bush’s, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Michael Bloomberg, I’ve, Steve Schale, Schale, don’t, it’s, “ Biden, Ben Tulchin, Fowler Organizations: CNN, Labor, White, Democratic, GOP, University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, Electoral College, Trump, Democrats, Crystal Ball, New Hampshire, Republican, White House, Biden, Pennsylvania Senate, Democratic Gov, Wesleyan Media Project, Wesleyan University, Electoral, Republicans, ”, Wisconsin, District, New, New York City, Sunshine Locations: Indiana , Iowa , Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Arizona , Georgia, New, dislodging Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio, New York, Minnesota, New Hampshire , Virginia, Oregon, Texas

☆ How Florida law could trip up Trump if he’s convicted before the 2024 election
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +14 min

Meade is executive director of the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition, which works to restore voting rights in the state to former felons. Amendment 4 automatically restored voting rights to former felons, except those convicted of murder or sexual offenses, who have completed their sentences. Initially, organizers projected that Amendment 4 would restore voting rights to about 1.4 million Floridians, but as a result of these new hurdles only a little over 600,000 have actually regained their voting rights, Meade said. Even after Amendment 4, felons are required to have completed their sentence before recovering their voting rights in Florida, as in virtually all other states. Intervening to restore those rights to Trump, if he’s convicted of a felony before the election, would represent a stark departure from the clemency board’s typical procedures.

Persons: Desmond Meade, Meade, Ron DeSantis, DeSantis, Donald Trump, he’s, ” Meade, Trump, ”, Insha Rahman, Neil Volz, DeSantis –, Mark Schlakman, Lawton Chiles, Republican Sen, Rick Scott, Schlakman, hasn’t, there’s, “, Vera Institute’s Rahman, Ian Bassin Organizations: CNN, Restoration Coalition, Florida, Republican, GOP, Trump, Vera Institute of Justice, Florida State University, Florida Gov, District of Columbia, National Conference of State Legislatures, State, Florida State University Center, Advancement of Human, DeSantis, Republicans, Protect Democracy Locations: Florida, Maine, Vermont, ”

☆ Why the Republican defense of Trump points to more turbulence ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +20 min

In the Republican coalition, it is a moment that has culminated decades of change – and one that points to years of turbulence ahead. Overwhelming majorities of Republican voters dismiss the charges against Trump. In Gallup’s latest annual survey of trust in institutions, Republicans expressed less faith in 10 of the 16 measured. Veteran GOP pollster Whit Ayres points to another, more personal, reason so many GOP voters have discounted the charges against Trump. Trump is the Republican most effectively riding that wave now, but it seems unlikely to recede whenever he fades from the political scene.

Persons: Donald Trump, ”, Trump, Tresa Undem, –, Stormy Daniels, “ Trump, …, Ronald Reagan, “ There’s, Amy Fried, Goldwater, Reagan, Fried, Steve Bannon, Eric Plutzer, ” Plutzer, Hillary Clinton, “ Efrem Zimbalist Jr, Plutzer, “, MAGA, Undem, ” Trump, He’s, ” he’s, George Floyd, It’s, ” Robert P, Jones, winks, ’ Trump, ” “ MAGA, ” Jones, Daniel Cox, —, ” Cox, Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, Will Hurd, Hunter Biden, Cox, wasn’t Hunter Biden, Whit Ayres, ” Ayres, Donald Trump’s, aspersions, That’s, ’, Long Organizations: CNN, Republican, GOP, Trump, Whites, Bright Line, Republicans, CBS, University of Maine, Government, National Rifle Association, NRA, Penn State University, Institute for Democracy, Department, FBI, ABC, Justice Department, Pew Research Center, Gallup, Black, Religion Research Institute, White, American Enterprise Institute, Trump —, Prestige, Senate, Trump . Veteran GOP, “, Democratic Locations: “, Vietnam, stoke, Russia, Manhattan, Fulton County , Georgia, New York, Undem, America

☆ DeSantis is crushing Trump among college-educated Republicans in Iowa. It's still not enough to win the caucuses.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Ron DeSantis has a double-digit lead among Iowa college-educated Republicans in a hypothetical matchup with Trump. Ron DeSantis holds a double-digit lead over former President Donald Trump among college-educated Republicans in a hypothetical one-on-one match-up in Iowa. There simply aren't enough college-educated Republicans in Iowa. As Atlantic senior editor Ronald Brownstein previously pointed out, part of DeSantis' national struggle is that there are not enough college-educated Republicans still in the party. Among the larger field in Iowa, Trump holds a 40-point lead over DeSantis.

Persons: Ron DeSantis, Trump, Donald Trump, DeSantis, Ronald Brownstein, Joe Biden, it's, Kim Reynolds, It's, Iowa caucusgoers Organizations: Florida Gov, Iowa, Republicans, Trump, GOP, Service, Gov, New York Times, Siena College, Iowa GOP, Atlantic, Republican, Iowa Gov, Iowa Republican, Times Locations: Florida, Iowa, Wall, Silicon, DeSantis, Siena, New Hampshire , Nevada, South Carolina

☆ Even Trump’s indictments haven’t shattered the deadlock between the parties. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

The poll found voters divided exactly in half over whether they intended to vote for Democrats or Republicans in the next Congressional election. While surveys now usually show Biden leading Trump, the president’s margin rarely exceeds his four-point margin of victory from 2020. Instead, the pandemic quickly evolved into just another front in the preexisting culture war lines of division between the parties. Yet Biden, as noted above, still maintained his 2020 lead over Trump in these seats of four percentage points. Surveys have found widespread concern among voters that Biden is too old to effectively handle the presidency.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, Joe Biden, ”, Lynn Vavreck, Franklin Roosevelt, Tony Fabrizio, John Anzalone, Biden, Fabrizio, Bill McInturff, “, ” McInturff, McInturff, Vavreck, John Sides, Chris Tausanovitch, ” Vavreck, Stormy Daniels, Anzalone, ” Anzalone, it’s Trump, Simon Rosenberg, ” Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: CNN, Republican, Democratic, UCLA, Electoral College, GOP, Senate, Trump, Biden, AARP, Republicans, NBC, Bright Line, NPR, PBS, Marist, White, Whites, Democrats, Wisconsin – Locations: Anzalone, Arizona , Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Trump

☆ Why the US ‘does not get to assume that it lasts forever’
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +18 min

“We need to separate by red states and blue states and shrink the federal government,” Greene said in a tweet on President’s Day this year. Blue state governors, legislatures and mayors might respond to such an offensive in forceful ways difficult to predict today. The Republican-appointed majority on the US Supreme Court has encouraged the red state social offensive with decisions that stripped away national rights – most prominently on abortion and voting. “Given the make-up of the courts, it’s difficult for blue states to be hopeful about this,” says Kettl. “The United States does not get to assume that it lasts forever.”

Persons: we’ve, ”, Donald Kettl, Donald Trump, I’ve, ’ “, Trump, Daniel Cox, Alan Wolfe, Wolfe, ” Wolfe, “, Joe Biden, Trump –, Abraham Lincoln, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Kevin McCarthy, ” Greene, Susan Stokes, Stokes, he’s, Biden, Jim Crow, Cox, Michael Podhorzer, what’s, MAGA, Eric Liu, Liu, Richard Nixon’s, Liu’s, ” Liu Organizations: CNN, America, University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, Republican “, American Enterprise Institute, Boston University, Republican, Democratic, Chicago Center, Democracy, University of Chicago, CBS, Trump, National Guard, Fugitive, “, US, GOP, White House, AFL, Citizen University Locations: United States, States, America, Black, Confederate States, Georgia, Midwest, Heartland, Great, New York, Memphis, Austin, Blue, Michigan , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona

☆ Supreme Court's affirmative action decision sets 'race-neutral' standard in college admission decisions
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-01 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

CNN —When the Supreme Court cut affirmative action out of college admissions programs Thursday, it did not outlaw the goal of achieving diversity, but it set a new “race-neutral” standard for considering applicants. Justice Clarence Thomas, who wrote his own concurring opinion, uses the term “race neutral” repeatedly, offering it as an antidote to affirmative action. For more on this view, read this piece in The Atlantic by scholars Uma Jayakumar and Ibram Kendi: “‘Race Neutral’ Is the New ‘Separate but Equal.’”What have race-neutral admissions policies accomplished? They can, presumably, still utilize affirmative action even though they are the higher learning institutions over which the federal government has the most control. Multiple corporations – from Apple to IKEA – asked the Supreme Court to allow affirmative action to continue so that their potential workforce is more diverse.

Persons: John Roberts, Roberts, they’ve, Clarence Thomas, Thomas, Sonia Sotomayor, ”, Uma Jayakumar, Laura Coates, CNN’s Nicquel Terry Ellis, Zack Mabel, Terry Ellis, CNN’s Leah Asmelash, Ronald Brownstein Organizations: CNN, Public, Institute of California, University of California’s, UC, UC enrollees, UC Berkeley, Harvard University, Georgetown University Center, Education, Workforce, Georgetown’s Center for Education, IKEA –, Republican Locations: California, Michigan, Thomas, California In California, enrollees, UC enrollees, American, America, Apple

☆ Republican response to Trump indictment shows they're stitching their own straitjacket
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +14 min

The roar of outrage from Republican leaders to that indictment restored Trump’s grip on the party after frustration over his role in the GOP’s disappointing 2022 midterm elections had loosened it. Repeating the pattern from other moments of maximum threat to Trump, the GOP response has been marked by a pronounced communications imbalance. (The poll was conducted after Trump’s indictment in Manhattan but before the recent federal charges.) At another point Trump insisted, “These criminals cannot be rewarded” – presumably by frightening Republican voters away from nominating him. Yet, Robinson believes, by echoing Trump’s claims of unfair treatment, the other candidates are encouraging Republican voters to accept his framing of the race.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, Kevin McCarthy, South Carolina Sen, Lindsey Graham, Trump’s, Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, –, William Barr, John Bolton, John Thune –, ”, he’s, Ruth Ben, Ghiat, thrall, “, “ Strongmen, Mussolini, Silvio Berlusconi, Berlusconi, machina, Bill Kristol, Jack Smith, Fani Willis –, Dave Wilson, Craig Robinson, “ Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Jennifer Horn, ” –, “ They’ve, Donald Trump, ” Robinson, Robinson, Asa Hutchison, ” Kristol, Biden, Nikki Haley –, Mike Pence, Pence, she’s, ” Ben Organizations: CNN, Republican, Trump, GOP, Marxist, Republicans, NPR, PBS, Marist, Whites, CBS, Forza Italia, New York University, District, Iowa Republican Party, New, Georgia GOP, “, Trump “ Locations: Manhattan, South Carolina, lockstep, Fulton County , Georgia, New Hampshire, Georgia, America, Thune, Trump, Trump’s, South Africa, Chile

☆ How one DeSantis speech captured the dynamic that could decide 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

The next 30 minutes of DeSantis’ speech then demonstrated how Biden might survive despite all the doubts about his performance and capabilities. In that way, DeSantis’ first swing through Iowa showed why Republicans are still at risk in 2024 from a key dynamic that dashed their hopes of a sweeping “red wave” in 2022. Many strategists in both parties believe that dynamic is most likely to recur in 2024 if the GOP nominates Trump. One reason, Republicans argue, is that the eventual nominee likely will talk about these issues less in a general election. Beset by all the difficult domestic conditions DeSantis highlighted, Biden will likely struggle straight through November 2024 to affirmatively convince a majority that his performance deserves another term.

Persons: Ron DeSantis, Joe Biden, Biden, DeSantis, Donald Trump, ”, Sarah Longwell, MAGA Trump, “, Trump, Chris Wilson, Republican pollster, Jesse Ferguson, SRSS, “ Biden, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W . Bush, “ DeSantis, Ferguson, don’t, –, David Kochel, Kochel, can’t, Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton’s, suburbanites, Nick Gourevitch, DeSantis ’, dethroning Trump, Sen, Bernie Sanders, Biden “ Organizations: CNN, Florida Gov, Biden’s, Republicans, GOP, Trump, Republican, Longwell, Biden, White House, White, Edison Research, House, Democrats, Senate, Fox News, Walt Disney Co, Democratic, eventual Locations: Iowa, Des Moines, Biden’s America, America, Florida, Arizona , Georgia, Nevada , New Hampshire , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan

☆ How Trump’s legacy became ‘pure poison’ for independents
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +16 min

Among female independents, Trump’s ratings were even worse: just 23% favorable and 72% unfavorable, according to previously unpublished exit poll results provided by the CNN polling unit. Trump’s unfavorable rating hit a comparable 69% among independents with at least a four-year college degree. That was a significantly smaller advantage than the double-digit lead among independents Democrats enjoyed in both the 2020 presidential race and the 2018 contest for the House. While Democrats held the presidency, Republicans won independents by double-digits in House elections in the midterms of 2014, 2010 and 1994. Gretchen Whitmer won 59% of the independents with degrees and 56% of women independents.

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