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CNN —Since September 1, the Ukrainian capital Kyiv has been spared from Russian drone attacks on just one night – October 14. On Saturday night, Ukrainian air defenses detected a record 145 incoming Shahed drones. “We have been doing this for over two years,” he said, but the intensity of drone attacks had peaked over the past two to three months. The drone attacks seem calculated to instil fear rather than cause mass casualties, but several people have been killed in recent weeks. Russian forces already occupy almost all of Luhansk and substantial parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – altogether some 20% of Ukraine.
Persons: Viktoria Kovalchuk, Teo, ” Kovalchuk, Victoria Kovalchuk, Kovalchuk, Maksym, , Bridges, Konstantin Usov, don’t, Usov, Yuriy Chumak, Chumak, , Mariya Troyanivska, Oleksander Syrskyi, Genya Savilov, Konrad Muzyka, Muzyka, Syrskyi, ” Muzyka, Lloyd Austin, Stringer, Reuters Rym, Montaz, Richard Haass, ” Haas, Andrii Sybiha, Donald Trump’s, Trump, JD Vance, Volodymyr Zelensky, hasn’t Organizations: CNN, Ukraine’s, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 43 Artillery Brigade, Getty, Rochan Consulting, US, Reuters, Carnegie Endowment, International, Kyiv, Russian, Foreign Affairs, Kherson –, NATO Locations: Ukrainian, Kyiv, Ukraine, Europe, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Russian, Donetsk, Dnipro, Pokrovsk, AFP, Kursk, Russia, Toretsk, Washington, Luhansk, Kherson, , Moscow
The newly granted permission by the United States and other allies to use Western weapons to strike inside Russia has had a huge impact, Bankir said. While Kyiv hasn’t managed to reclaim large swathes of territory, it has successfully averted what could have been a disaster: The occupation of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city. “(Russia) knew that Ukraine did not have the capacity to strike these targets on the Russian territory,” Melnyk said. While Ukraine was previously able to strike targets inside Russia using Ukraine-made drones, ATACMS make these strikes far more efficient. However, Ukraine can still use the F-16 to deny Russia control over the skies – and push away Russian aircraft delivering bombs.
Persons: CNN — Bankir, Bankir, , ” Ivan, Kyiv hasn’t, Valentyn Ogirenko, Oleksiy Melnyk, , ” Melnyk, wasn’t, Melnyk, Konrad Muzyka, Rochan, , Muzyka, it’s, ” Muzyka, Ukraine’s, Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump, Maria Kostenko, Daria Tarasova, Markina Organizations: CNN, Ukraine’s Security, Artillery, 148th, Kyiv, 148th Separate Artillery Brigade, Ukrainian Air Assault Forces, United Nations, Human Rights, Razumkov, Rochan Consulting, People, Reuters, US, NATO Locations: United States, Russia, Russian, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Ukraine’s, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Izium, Balakliia, Moscow, Kharkiv –, Ukrainian, , Belgorod, Voronezh, Krasnodar, Bryansk, Crimea, Washington , DC,
Facing an Endless Barrage, Ukraine’s Air Defenses Are WitheringThis is what a year of Russian missile strikes on Ukraine looks like. Ukrainian air defenses used to intercept most missiles, but in recent months, more and more have made it through. Ukraine has made increasingly desperate pleas for more air defenses from its Western allies. But it could be months before enough weapons arrive to significantly bolster Ukrainian air defenses. Ukrainian air defenses downed the first seven — but had no choice but to let the next four pass, he said.
Persons: Jan, Volodymyr Zelensky, , , Tom Karako, Maj, Ilya Yevlash, Konrad Muzyka, Odesa, Yevlash, Justin Bronk, Mr, Bronk, Barber Organizations: Russian, New York Times, Ukrainian Air Force, Patriot, United, Kremlin, PBS, Missile Defense, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Ukrainian Air, Patriots, Rochan Consulting, Kyiv Kharkiv Dnipro Odesa, Kyiv Kharkiv Dnipro Odesa Kyiv, Kyiv Kharkiv Dnipro Kyiv, Royal United Services Institute Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Russia, United States, Kyiv, Ukrainian, Washington, Poland, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Texas, London
Global Images Ukraine | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesFor Michael Clarke, a defense analyst and former director-general of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, there's a risk that the first phase of the counteroffensive, designed to probe Russia's defenses, takes too long. Global Images Ukraine | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesKonrad Muzyka, a military intelligence specialist and president of Rochan Consulting, said "the weather has always been the factor" for Kyiv. But Kyiv says its forces are conducting counteroffensive actions in at least three areas and are operating against a backdrop of increased Russian offensive operations. Ukraine's defense ministry claims that its forces have liberated around 210 square kilometers (81 square miles) of occupied territory since June. Anatolii Stepanov | Afp | Getty Images
Persons: , Michael Clarke, Clarke, Konrad Muzyka, Muzyka, Yuriy Sak, Sak, Anatolii Stepanov Organizations: 110th Brigade, Territorial Defense, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Military, Royal United Services Institute, CNBC, Rochan Consulting, Kyiv, Afp Locations: Novodarivka, Luhansk, Ukraine, Kharkiv, Kherson, Ukrainian, Bakhmut, Donetsk, Russian, Russia, Vuhledar, Yuriy, Siversk
How Russia’s Offensive Ran Aground
  + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Josh Holder | Marco Hernandez | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +15 min
But within months of the invasion, Russia’s rapid advances ran out of steam, even as it narrowed its ambitions and focused on eastern Ukraine. No Russian gains No Russian gains No Russian gainsIn September 2022 Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in September 2022. No Russian gains No Russian gains No Russian gainsIn October 2022 Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in October 2022. Russia captured the small salt-mining town. Kurdiumivka Soledar Kurdiumivka Soledar Russia captured the small salt-mining town.
This is in part because of beavers building dams, with nobody stopping them due to the war. The animals are unwittingly helping Kyiv by building dams that keep the ground marshy and impassable, a military spokesman told the agency. This helps Ukraine by making it less likely that an attack could come via Belarus, which borders Ukraine not far north of the capital Kyiv. Ukrainian officials had warned that Russia may wage an offensive through its ally Belarus into a region of Ukraine called Volyn. Its spokesman, Serhiy Khominskyi, praised the beavers, which he told Reuters were more working unimpeded, unlike in other years.
Ukrainian officials have warned of a new looming Russian assault, with Belarus to the north named as one possible launchpad, as Moscow seeks to revive its faltering invasion. Russia and its close ally Belarus have beefed up their joint military grouping in Belarus and plan to hold joint aviation drills there from next Monday. Across the border on Thursday, the deputy commander of what Moscow calls its "special military operation" inspected Russian forces in Belarus. Analyst Konrad Muzyka, who runs defence consultancy Rochan Consulting, told Reuters that although a Russian troop build-up could be observed in Belarus, an attack into north-west Ukraine from Belarus would face enormous difficulties. "This makes it easy for Ukrainian forces to channel the movement of Russian forces into specific areas where they would be shelled by artillery."
The new commander of Russian forces in Ukraine said Tuesday that his troops in the country’s south were facing “a rather difficult” situation after a Ukrainian counteroffensive pushed them back and threatened their supply lines. “Our further plans and actions regarding the city of Kherson itself will depend on the emerging military tactical situation,” Gen. Sergei Surovikin said. “Difficult decisions could not be ruled out,” he added in a rare interview with Russian state television that came not long after he was installed by the Kremlin. Ukraine has been laying the ground for a counteroffensive there for months, striking key bridges and military infrastructure, while also advancing in the east. “The Russian military has been rumored to be pushing for a withdrawal for weeks, with some pushback from the Kremlin, and we may be seeing a reversal of this policy,” he said.
But the Kremlin still doesn’t seem confident that its military can hold back a Ukrainian counteroffensive ahead of winter. The head of the Moscow-appointed regional administration, Vladimir Saldo, without using the word “evacuation,” asked Moscow Thursday to welcome families from the Kherson region that want “to protect themselves” from what he described as constant Ukrainian shelling. The Kremlin promptly agreed to support such efforts, with officials in the southern Russian region of Rostov saying the first arrivals were expected Friday, the state news agency Tass reported. Kyiv has been striking Russian military sites and installations in the region for several months, according to its defense officials, as it prepared for its long-touted counteroffensive there. “If Kherson falls, there will be a moment in which potentially there may be further breakthroughs by Ukraine,” Mevin said.
Can Ukraine Break Through Again?
  + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Marco Hernandez | Denise Lu | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +7 min
After mostly defending for months, Ukraine is now dictating the war, choosing where it wants to press new offensives. After mostly defending for months, Ukraine is now dictating the war, choosing where it wants to press new offensives. But even if it helps, the “partial mobilization” could take months to change the battlefield, giving Ukraine time to push forward. Now that Ukraine has recaptured Izium, Ukrainian forces are freed up to attack Russian forces to the east. Now that Ukraine has recaptured Izium, Ukrainian forces are freed up to attack Russian forces to the east.
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