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Moscow took sharp action on Friday to curb inflation, fearing the effects of ever higher spending on the war in Ukraine and of a weakening Russian ruble. Russia’s central bank took the unexpected step of raising its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point, to 8.5 percent from 7.5 percent. It was the first large hike in more than a year, and the bank warned that further increases were likely. “It is a surprise and on its face reflects more concern at the central bank about inflation and how the economy is doing that we had appreciated,” said Robert Kahn, the head of the Geoeconomics Team at the Eurasia Group, a New York-based risk analysis firm. “It suggests that the war is proving increasingly disruptive to economic activity and pushing up inflationary pressures.”
Persons: Moscow, , Robert Kahn Organizations: Eurasia Group Locations: Ukraine, Russia’s, New York
But its deeper impact will be felt in how the conflict plays into shifts that were already reshaping the global economy before Russia's tanks rolled in. Economic sanctions on Moscow came as hurdles to world trade were mounting after an era of rapid globalisation. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsNO ENDGAME IN SIGHTSome might conclude that means the world economy has taken the conflict in its stride. That would take the outlook for both the global economy and wider peace into uncharted territory. For the economy, the risk is that energy prices - and hence inflation - will be squeezed higher if shortfalls are not met.
This is largely thanks to a design that Vint Cerf sketched on the back of an envelope while holed up with fellow computer scientist Robert Kahn in a Palo Alto cabana nearly 50 years ago. “Bob and I were like two hands on one pencil,” Dr. Cerf, 79, says over video from his home in McLean, Va., dressed in his usual three-piece suit. “We had a Stanford secretary type it up, and what did we do with the handwritten original? We threw it away! Historians have never forgiven me,” he adds with a laugh.
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