DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

☆ The Magnificent Seven should be reduced to the 'Magnificent Four,' fund manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Magnificent Seven should be reduced to the 'Magnificent Four,' fund manager saysArnout van Rijn, portfolio manager at Robeco Global, shares his prognosis on the U.S. economy and its implications for stocks, particularly the tech mega-caps that have powered markets over the last year.

Persons: Arnout van Organizations: Robeco Global Locations: Arnout van Rijn, U.S

ORLANDO, Florida, Nov 29 (Reuters) - If cash has been king, the Fed may be plotting regicide. But once the first Fed cut comes into view, that money will move rapidly out the maturity curve and into riskier assets. A recent report by BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, notes that on average, cash returns 4.5% in the year following the final Fed rate hike, significantly underperforming a wide array of asset classes. Of that, $2.24 trillion is in retail investor funds and $3.52 trillion is in institutional funds. According to Bank of America, investors have poured $1.2 trillion into money market funds so far this year.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Justin Christofel, Cash, Goldman Sachs, Ray Dalio, Jamie McGeever, Josie Kao Organizations: BlackRock, Fed, ICI, Bank of America, Goldman, BofA, Deutsche Bank, U.S, Bridgewater, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, BlackRock

If both are calculated in dollar terms, however, Chinese stocks have, by some measures, carried an advantage over the very long term. Many observers say demographics, deleveraging, and de-risking - U.S. firms on-shoring, new supply chains, and trade tensions – will be a considerable long-term drag on Chinese growth. Little wonder, perhaps, that Chinese stocks are so cheap. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBased on 12-month forward price/earnings multiples, U.S. stocks are twice as expensive as Chinese stocks. For the past 10 years Chinese stocks have been substantially cheaper than U.S. stocks, and most of the decade before that they were usually cheaper too.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Torsten Slok, Janet Yellen, Lifeng, Colin Graham, Graham, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Shanghai, CSI, Reuters, Apollo Global Management, U.S, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, China, Mexico

☆ A 32-year market vet warns a recession is still on the way as the Fed's jumbo rate hikes continue to work their way into the economy — and shares 3 reasons why stocks are overvalued by 35%
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The hikes scared investors into thinking a recession would be on the way. But today, the labor market remains strong and inflation is under 4%, prompting rosier outlooks about the fate of the US economy. Rate hikes take time to work their way into the economy. But their main adversary going forward is going to be the Fed, with inflation still elevated. The Consumer Price Index is at 3.7% year-over-year, and core inflation, which the Fed watches closely, is even higher at 4.3%.

Persons: Michael Pento, Piper Sandler, Pento, Louis, LEI, Greg Boutle, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Jeremy Grantham, Merrill Lynch, Gary Shilling, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Conference, Stock, Robeco, Nasdaq, BNP, Fed

☆ The head quant strategist at a $194 billion firm shares 4 trades he sees delivering at least 6% returns over each of the next 5 years as a recession gets ready to hit the US economy next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Next, Swinkels likes developed market equities, which include stocks in countries like France, Germany, the UK, Australia, Japan, and more. The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) offers exposure to developed market stocks outside of the US and Canada. Exchange-traded funds like the Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF (SCHE) or the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) are one way to invest in emerging market stocks. "The CAPE ratio of global real estate is currently 13.3, well below its average of 19.4 since 2000," Swinkels said. One way to invest in real estate without buying properties directly is through real-estate investment trusts, also known as REITs.

Persons: Laurens Swinkels, Peter van der, Swinkels, we've Organizations: Federal, iShares, Yield Corp, Exchange, Schwab, Equity, Vanguard FTSE, Markets, Simon Property Group Locations: France, Germany, Australia, Japan, Canada, China, Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia

☆ A legendary economist who called the 2008 recession says another downturn is knocking on the door — and warns stocks will end up falling 40% by the end of this market cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Legendary economist Gary Shilling says the US economy is headed toward a recession — that is, if we're not already in one. "The Fed wants to make sure they've killed inflation," Shilling said. Shilling, who called the 2008 recession, pointed out that recessions sometimes don't start until the Fed has already begun to cut rates. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisTrusted recession indicators are also signaling that a downturn is coming, Shilling said. The Conference BoardAs a result of the recession, Shilling expects stocks to fall significantly.

Persons: Gary Shilling, we're, It's, Shilling, Merrill Lynch, David Rosenberg, Louis, they're, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Conference, Societe Generale Locations: there's

The change drew the ire of several P&G investors. Its new forestry policy could put it at odds with a European Union deforestation law coming into effect in about 18 months banning certain goods linked to deforestation and forest degradation. "Our ongoing efforts to keep forests as forests while continuing to serve consumers with superior-performing products, all of those efforts remain unchanged." In its new forestry policy, P&G, which also makes Tide detergent and Dawn dish soap, consolidates existing guidelines for paper packaging and palm oil, used throughout its portfolio of products. The NRDC late last year filed a complaint with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to evaluate if P&G's claims that it prohibits forest degradation were materially misleading investors.

Persons: Leslie Samuelrich, Jack McAneny, McAneny, Elrod, Gaurav Madan, Madan, Shelley Vinyard, Vinyard, Peter van der, Jessica DiNapoli, Aurora Ellis Organizations: YORK, Procter, Gamble, Green, Funds, Reuters, Commodities, United, Food, Agriculture Organization, BNP, Asset Management, Natural Resources Defense, BlackRock, Street, UBS, Legal, General, Natural Resources Defense Council, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Thomson Locations: Cincinnati, Latin America, Europe, Canada, U.S, Robeco, New York

German specialised property lenders such as Aareal Bank (ARLG.DE), Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (PBBG.DE) and Berlin Hyp, have a bigger concentration of real estate exposure, analysts added. Blackstone (BX.N) recently blocked withdrawals from its $70 billion real estate income trust after facing a flurry of redemption requests. Open-ended real estate funds in Britain have also battled to meet strong demand for redemptions. In Europe, CRE exposure for smaller banks, more at risk of deposit flight, is estimated at under 30% of all loans, Capital Economics said. "On the other, real estate owners themselves are going to face quite material increase in costs."

☆ ECB market rate bets: still some unfinished business for the hawks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Having firmly scaled-back rate expectations amid last month's market turmoil, investors no longer expect borrowing costs to stay higher for longer and are cautious about pricing in a deposit rate above 4%. The November 2023 ECB euro short-term rate (ESTR) forward rose to 3.65% on Wednesday, implying expectations for a deposit rate of around 3.75%. Citi meanwhile argued that the June ESTR or money market contract was less appealing from a hedging standpoint while markets were pricing a peak of 3.75%. bundfuturevolBut Bund futures volumes declined after March 15 as markets once more revised their rate expectations upwards. This means that the smaller the gap between the current benchmark rate and the expected rate, the lower the volatility, and vice versa.

ORLANDO, Florida, April 5 (Reuters) - When U.S. government bonds become the epicenter of global market volatility, investors' room for taking on additional risk shrinks, sucking the oxygen out of their risk budget. The shock blindsided speculative investors who had been positioned for higher U.S. interest rates and yields. The full extent of the turmoil - hedge funds were among those who got crushed - will become clearer as first-quarter readouts emerge. A pension fund's tolerance for risk, and therefore its VaR, will be lower than a hedge fund's. "When you plug a two-year Treasury into any risk model now using past returns models, expected risk will be higher going forward," van Vliet said.

☆ Analysis: Door slams on Japan bank rally as focus turns to bond holdings in wake of SVB
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Losses in Silicon Valley Bank's bond portfolio have highlighted similar risks for Japanese lenders' gigantic foreign bond holdings, which are carrying over 4 trillion yen ($30 billion) in unrealised losses. Three days of selling has the Tokyo Stock Exchange banks index (.IBNKS.T) down 16% - its sharpest drop since the days after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami struck Japan. Reuters GraphicsBONDS GETTING HITMost of the time, bond losses aren't a problem for banks, which typically hold their investments to maturity. An annual Bank of Japan report published on Tuesday said Japanese financial institutions have sufficient capital buffers. "And maybe some concerns Japanese banks have exposures, and some profit taking," he said.

☆ Analysis: Rebounding U.S. dollar a growing headache for investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 1 (Reuters) - Investors reeling from the recent volatility in global financial markets are eyeing another potential worry: a rebounding dollar. MSCI’s index for emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) has slipped 8% from its January highs, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index (.MIEM00000CUS) is down 3% from its early February high. "A stronger dollar poses a problem for risk assets," said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. The dollar's recent rebound has weighed on various risk assetsBecause of the dollar's central role in the global financial system, its fluctuations have widespread repercussions. Whether the dollar continues its rebound will depend in part on investors' perceptions of how much higher the Fed will need to raise interest rates.

☆ Investor reaction to Adani market rout after short-seller report
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The rout has sparked concern that the fallout could also affect, more broadly, confidence in India. GEORGE BOUBOURAS, HEAD OF RESEARCH AT K2 ASSET MANAGEMENT, MELBOURNE (UNDERWEIGHT ON INDIA)"The Adani effect works both ways given the market cap relative to index. "To attract more capital the Indian economy needs more FTAs (free-trade agreements) and more financial market reform - a long process." Given there has not been any significant change for now for the market valuation, the market remains overall expensive in our view." Adani is a known levered name in India, so I would think most participants should not associate the same issues for other Indian assets."

☆ Instant view: India's Adani slammed by $48 bln stock rout, clouding record share sale
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

COMMENTARYJ.P.MORGAN"While the Hindenburg report focused mainly on equity valuations within the group, we are primarily concerned about the underlying credit profiles of group companies given underlying bank exposures. Clearly given the size of the group and outstanding debt, this has also impacted the banks." So if a report comes and stocks see a sharp fall, lot of margin calls also get triggered. At least 40% of the group's debt is exposed to Indian banks, so that exposure is what people are worried about in banks. Reporting by Rama Venkat and Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Investor group launches campaign to help companies protect nature
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-11 | by ( Expert Analysis | Reuters Professional | Calls Grow For Companies To Disclose Impacts On Nature In Bid To Plug Finance Gap | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Luis EcheverriaMONTREAL, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Here's the plan: Select 100 companies whose business burdens nature. Such is the vision of a campaign called "Nature Action 100" launched on Sunday by 11 investment firms hoping to encourage companies to help preserve ecosystems that support more than half the world's economic output. "The aim of Nature Action 100 is to engage those companies that have the highest impact on nature, not only to protect the natural environment but also to mitigate the risks these companies face from mounting pressure to effectively address biodiversity issues," Wearmouth said in a statement. The list of 100 companies will be published next year. Nature Action 100 would seek to select 100 companies for investors to focus on in suggesting how the private sector can navigate any new rules and monitoring their progress, the group said.

REUTERS/Octavio JonesNEW YORK, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Former President Donald Trump's entry on Tuesday into the 2024 presidential race confirmed the world's "worst kept secret" and created another variable for markets that some investors say remains a low priority for now. Trump's announcement, meanwhile, came as little surprise to investors, as the former president had telegraphed the possibility he might run again for some time. DIVIDED WE HURTUnlike during Trump's previous bid, the discord within the Republican party also worried some investors. The Republican president has claimed credit for the rise, tweeting often about Wall Street's performance. Both stocks rallied earlier this month on reports Trump was considering a third bid for the White House.

☆ Reactions to Trump announcing 2024 White House bid
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SINGAPORE, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Donald Trump's aides filed paperwork for his 2024 White House bid on Tuesday as the former president launched a run to regain the title, aiming to pre-empt potential Republican rivals. Republicans are meanwhile closing in on the 218 seats they need to take a majority in the 435-seat House of Representatives. COMMENTS:ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI, FOUNDER, SKYBRIDGE CAPITAL, SINGAPORE (FORMER WHITE HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR)"You know how you have a zombie that you can’t kill, like in the Night of the Walking Dead? If any one of those other candidates can present themselves with some of the Trump messaging without the Trump drama, there might be opportunities." Neil Young said 'it's better to burn out than fade away'...feels like Trump will go down this time with little glory."

☆ Trump's 2024 presidential bid is a wrinkle du jour for markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Octavio JonesNEW YORK, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Former President Donald Trump's entry on Tuesday into the 2024 presidential race confirmed the world's "worst kept secret" and created another variable for markets that some investors say remains a low priority for now. Trump, who has mounted relentless attacks on the integrity of U.S. voting since his 2020 election defeat, announced his bid at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, seemingly with the aim of pre-empting potential Republican rivals. Trump's announcement, meanwhile, came as little surprise to investors, as the former president had telegraphed the possibility he might run again for some time. Shares of Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC.O), the blank-check company looking to take Donald Trump's social media venture public, fell 8.8% on Tuesday, while software developer Phunware Inc (PHUN.O), which was hired by Trump's 2020 re-election campaign to build a phone app, slid 4.7%. Both stocks rallied earlier this month on reports Trump was considering a third bid for the White House.

"Brazil is ready to retake its leadership in the fight against the climate crisis," Lula told a crowd of supporters in Sao Paulo. Silva said that Brazil would demand rich countries provide financing to poor countries to respond to climate change and give compensation for permanent "loss and damage" from climate change. Under Lula, Brazil will also discuss expanding its national targets for cutting climate-related emissions, said Silva, his former environment minister from 2003 to 2008. The firm, with roughly 237 billion euros ($234 billion) in assets under management, only owned about 100 million euros in Brazilian sovereign bonds when the prohibition took effect. Environmental advocates also cheered Lula's proposals for the Amazon, but cautioned that his agenda would face enormous political resistance.

Whacked further by a soaring dollar, indices of overseas sovereign bonds in dollar terms are down almost 24% - even worse than then S&P500's (.SPX) 19% year-to-date reversal. Far from portfolio buffers, these sorts of moves make bonds meat and drink for hedge funds. And even though equity prices have fallen and cheapened on many models, their relative value versus bonds has not. It trimmed expected equity returns by a quarter point. Reuters poll-U.S. treasury yield outlookRobeco Chart on Asset Allocation HistoryThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

Search resuls for: "Robeco"

20 mentions found