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☆ All eyes on this level for small caps that could unleash another 5% to 10% upside
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Small-cap stocks could see a monster rally ahead if they break above a key level. The Russell 2000 hit a high of 2,441.72 on Monday, just a hair below the November 2021 closing high of 2,442.74 before pulling back Tuesday and Wednesday. Small caps have been on a tear since the presidential election last week, after Donald Trump secured a second term. The Russell 2000 is up about 4.5% since the election, outperforming its large-cap counterparts. .RUT 5Y bar Russell 2000 less than 1% from record The technical strategist noted that move may not happen immediately.

Persons: Russell, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Donald Trump, Yun Li Organizations: Wolfe Research, Dow Jones, Nasdaq

☆ Tech stocks could be in for a reckoning, this chart shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Since then, the XLK is down 6% relative to the broad market index. "The level it peaked at almost exactly coincides with where the Tech ETF peaked on a relative basis in 2000. Not exactly what you want to see if you're an investor putting new money to work within Tech," he wrote. The SMH closed Friday at $252.96, and the strategist expects the $233 level to be tested near term. "We still exercise some degree of caution when we view Technology stocks, as short term trends and near-term momentum appear to be stalling," O'Hara wrote.

Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Roth MKM, JC O'Hara, O'Hara, Wells Organizations: Wolfe Research, Tech ETF, VanEck Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Microsoft, Apple Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ These dividend-paying stocks could be in the 'early innings' of a rally
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"As evidenced by XLV [Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund], price is back through the 50 day [moving average] on this relief rally," he said. "Not yet overbought, it looks to us like the early innings of a reacceleration back towards the highs. XLV YTD mountain Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund year to date On top of that rally is the added benefit of dividend payouts on many health care stocks. At least 51% of the Wall Street analysts who cover each stock rates it a buy, according to FactSet data. CI YTD mountain Cigna year to date Cigna beat earnings and revenue estimates in its second quarter when it reported results in August.

Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Abbott, Robert Ford, Dickinson, Cigna, Lina Khan, Merck Organizations: Wolfe Research, SPDR, CNBC Pro, Wall Street, nab, Abbott Laboratories, Company, Cigna's, Federal Trade Commission, CVS Health, UnitedHealth, Merck, Co Locations: . Connecticut

While "boring" bitcoin has been chopping sideways since March, bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy is trading at its highest level relative to the flagship crypto since 2019. Wolfe Research managing director Rob Ginsberg said he "loves [MicroStrategy's] chances to get out and continue climbing," but that the stock is overbought in the near term. "On a relative basis vs. BTC, the stock is at its highest level since 2019," Ginsberg added. Bitcoin is up 41% for the year, while MicroStrategy has gained 193%. MicroStrategy, which tends to be a high beta play on the cryptocurrency, is expected to follow.

Persons: Rob Ginsberg, MARA, MSTR, Ginsberg, Price, Wolfe, MicroStrategy, bitcoin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, BTC Locations: pullbacks, MSTR, bitcoin

☆ Stock market volatility ahead of presidential elections typically starts picking up right now
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Market volatility will likely increase from here as the race for the White House enters its final weeks, according to Wolfe Research. Technical strategist Rob Ginsberg tracked the average move of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) during a presidential election year. With momentum rolling over and several sectors seeing healthy pullbacks of late ... we feel the S & P is overdue for another 3 – 4% correction." To be sure, any troubles in the market into Election Day would mark a turn after an unusually strong year. Notably, Bespoke Investment Group found the S & P 500 notched its largest gain over the first nine months of a year since 1997.

Persons: Brace, Rob Ginsberg, bode, Ginsberg, What's Organizations: White, Wolfe Research, Traders, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Investment, Carson Group Locations: Israel

☆ Bitcoin is flipping in and out of 'bear' mode but could still reach $100,000 this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bitcoin investors are grappling with a demand dearth that has pushed the cryptocurrency into bear market territory at times. (In the first quarter, bitcoin ETFs bought about 9,000 BTC daily on average, following their January launch.) In the fourth quarters of 2012, 2016, and 2020 — the previous Bitcoin halving years — bitcoin prices rose by 9%, 59%, and 171%, respectively. The most recent halving — the supply cutting event that takes place every four years — happened this April. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin (BTC) year-to-date Bitcoin is set up well for the final quarter , but it's still working through a supply overhang from the U.S. and German governments as well as Mt.

Persons: It's, John Todaro, Needham, uptrend, it's, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Owen Lau, Oppenheimer Organizations: CNBC, BTC, Federal Reserve, U.S Locations: China, U.S

☆ Utilities are the hottest part of the stock market right now, on track for their best year since 2000
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-28 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Utility stocks this year have mounted a rally unseen in more than two decades. In the third quarter, utilities are the best out of 11 sectors that comprise the S & P 500, climbing 18%. As a group, utilities are poised to score their largest quarterly gain since George W. Bush was president in 2003. If that holds through yearend, utilities will see their biggest annual advance since 2000, when they surged more than 50%. "Utilities are the hottest sector in the market currently," Wolfe Research Rob Ginsberg said in a note to clients in August.

Persons: George W, Bush, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, hasn't, It's, buildout, Ginsberg, Subramanian, Wells Fargo, Christopher Harvey, Harvey, LSEG Organizations: Utilities, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Constellation Energy, CenterPoint Energy Locations: yearend, The Texas, Houston

☆ Bitcoin rallied on Thursday, but recent history says this pop will fade as well
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bitcoin rallied on Thursday, but if trading this year is any guide, this pop will be one to fade. Bitcoin is down 13% from its March 13 record and ether has tumbled 34% in the same period. With a year-to-date gain of 50%, bitcoin is considered to be in a bull cycle that began in March 2023. The most recent Bitcoin halving took place in April, and the post-halving highs historically don't come until about 18 months after the supply cutting event . Between the popularity of bitcoin ETFs that launched in January, the slowing of the bitcoin supply and a slew of other macro and micro catalysts, many traders are holding out for a price surge.

Persons: Bitcoin, it's, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg Organizations: Federal Reserve, BTC, Securities, Exchange, & $

☆ One of the top-performing sectors could be heading for trouble
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The communications services sector has been on an unbelievable tear for nearly two years. Since hitting a low on October 2022, the Communication Services Select Sector (XLC) has nearly doubled, outperforming the S & P 500 in that time. "The smallest sector in the market (by constituents not value) has been one of the most dominant over the past two years," wrote Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg. Our sense is that is better for sale here," Ginsberg wrote. Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning, Bernstein upgraded Starbucks to outperform from market perform.

Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Bernstein, Brian Niccol, Danilo Gargiulo Organizations: Communications, Netflix, Taco Bell Locations: GOOGL

☆ This sector that's been struggling in recent years is about to break out
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Fintech stocks have been in a rut since 2021. Wolfe Research technical strategist Rob Ginsberg pointed out the Global X FinTech ETF (FINX) is close to reaching the $30 level for the first time since 2022. The FINX ETF illustrates this well. This year, the ETF has made some progress, rising more than 9%, as the Fed begins its policy easing campaign. FINX mountain 2021-11-01 FINX since Nov. 2021 A breakout could have broader implications outside of fintech.

Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, It's, Tim Long, HPE Organizations: Wolfe Research, Federal Reserve, Fed, Dow Jones, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Barclays, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Juniper Networks Locations: fintech

☆ Analysts warn Coinbase could slump after crypto exchange scored a 6-day rally
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Analysts are warning that Coinbase could be entering a down trend after the stock scored a six-day-long advance. In early trading Wednesday, Coinbase rose as much as 1.3%, paving the way for what may be its seventh straight gain. "Coinbase looks very toppy to me as the recent bounce out of the oversold condition looks to be stalling out," Wolfe Research macro strategist Rob Ginsberg told CNBC. Lau also cited muted trading volume on crypto exchanges and pressure on subscription and services revenue due to the declining interest rate outlook. But cryptocurrency "trading volume could jump" when interest rates move even lower and if bitcoin again challenges its all-time high, Lau noted.

Persons: Coinbase, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Tamplin, Owen Lau, Oppenheimer, Lau, bitcoin, Bitcoin, Nick Wells Organizations: Wolfe Research, CNBC Locations: bitcoin

☆ Stocks are near record highs despite turmoil and 'erratic price action'
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are headed for their fourth weekly gain in five weeks, up 3.5% and 5.3%, respectively. Those gains have come even after a massive but brief intraday sell-off Wednesday — which was quickly erased after the S & P 500 stayed above a key level. .SPX 5D mountain SPX 5-day chart Indeed, after all the wild swings, the S & P 500 is a scant 1.2% below an intraday record of 5,669.67 reached in July. "Erratic price action in equities suggests confusion amid ever changing market narratives," Cau wrote. "Therefore, equity price action may stay volatile and data dependent, until we get more clarity on the economic outlook."

Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Emmanuel Cau, Cau Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Wolfe Research, Fed, Barclays Locations: U.S

☆ Beware of a bitcoin backslide to $50,000 as it enters historically worst month of the year
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-02 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Bitcoin slid 10.25% for its worst month since April, while ether dropped 23.66% in its third monthly drawdown and worst month since June 2022. "It's not a pretty picture across the crypto landscape at the moment," said Rob Ginsberg, chart analyst at Wolfe Research. "Bitcoin is still stuck in a descending trading range as price gradually deteriorates off the March high. Historically, September is the worst month for bitcoin — and other markets too, like U.S. stocks. Bitcoin has been stuck in a range between $50,000 and $70,000 since April and is likely to stay there for another a month at least.

Persons: Bitcoin, bitcoin, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, bitcoin —, they've, Alex Thorn, Thorn, Trump, Harris, John Todaro, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Nick Wells Organizations: Wolfe Research, bitcoin, Galaxy, U.S, Needham, Federal Locations: U.S, Germany, Gox

☆ U.S. crude oil trades near a three-week high after rally fueled by Israel-Iran tension
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. crude oil prices traded close to a three-week high Tuesday, after rallying on Monday in anticipation of an attack by Iran against Israel that could play havoc with Mideast production and transportation. Here are Tuesday's energy prices:"These risks remain low-probability events, which helps explain the modest increase in prices," Gloystein wrote. But prices eased slightly Tuesday as a strike by Iran had not yet materialized. Rob Ginsberg, managing director at Wolfe Research, said U.S. crude could rise above a resistance level of $84 per barrel. "Once out, mid to high $90s isn't crazy," Ginsberg said.

Persons: Henning Gloystein, Gloystein, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg Organizations: Eurasia Group, International Energy Agency, OPEC, U.S, Wolfe Research Locations: Iran, Israel, Hormuz, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, China

☆ Falling commodity prices are indicating there is trouble brewing with the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Commodity prices have tumbled over the past month, signaling underlying weakness in the global economy despite the U.S. stock market bouncing back from recession fears. But commodity markets may be telling a different story about the global economy. The Invesco DB Base Metals Fund is down more than 7% over the past month, while crude oil futures dropped 14% from July 5 through Aug. 5. @HG.1 YTD mountain Copper futures, YTD Weakness in China, the world's second-largest economy, is weighing on copper and oil in particular, Melek said. OPEC on Monday lowered its global oil demand growth forecast this year by 135,000 barrels per day as expectations in China have softened.

Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Bart Melek, DBB @HG, We've, Melek, I'm Organizations: U.S, Investors, Invesco DB Base Metals, Wolfe Research, TD Securities, DBB, Metals, Copper, CNBC, Global, Beijing, European Union, World Trade Organization, Federal Reserve, Securities Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ The hedge fund trade unwind that jolted Wall Street this week may continue to agitate markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-09 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The recent unwinding of the yen "carry trade" could remain a long-term headwind amid already turbulent markets. JPY= YTD mountain The Japanese yen's appreciation against the U.S. dollar marked the unwinding of the so-called carry trade. "There's still quite a significant yen short position out there," Osborne said. He estimates that there is still a roughly $15 billion yen short position through July 30, still to be covered. In other words, that short position could drive more strength in the yen as that position is covered.

Persons: —, Shaun Osborne, Osborne, Everyone's, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, FedWatch, Ben Emons Organizations: Bank of, U.S, Scotiabank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Wolfe Research, Swiss Locations: Bank of Japan, Japan

☆ This timber ETF could be on the verge of a breakout, Wolfe Research says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-25 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Analyst Rob Ginsberg said in a July 24 note that the Invesco MSCI Global Timber ETF (CUT) appears to be on the verge of a breakout. "The ETF has carved out a very compelling multi year base and is on the verge of breaking out through $34. The timber ETF closed at $33.56 per share on Wednesday. CUT launched in 2007 and is a relatively small ETF, with about $55 million in assets, according to FactSet. Basic Materials ETF (IYM) is up 0.7% in July, compared to a decline of 0.6% for the S & P 500 .

Persons: Rob Ginsberg, WestRock, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, ETF, Basic Materials

☆ Chart analysts say 'something is not right' with stock market, grow increasingly worried
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have rallied during the second quarter and are currently within 1% of their record highs. "It's great to see S & P and Nasdaq make new highs, but clearly something is not right if key barometers for risk are rolling over," Ginsberg wrote. There doesn't even seem to be a consensus among the biggest names in the stock market. These latest signs of weakness are part of the long-standing worry about the lack of market breadth . RSP YTD mountain The equal-weight S & P 500 is headed for a losing second quarter.

Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Russell, Ginsberg, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq, Wolfe Research, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Big Tech, RSP, Bears

☆ Nvidia will be key to market's direction as Wall Street heads into the summer with May jobs report on deck
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Nvidia is the key to how stocks will perform in the next few months as investors head into a seasonally weak period for markets, with the macroeconomic picture once again a center of attention. Stocks capped a winning month in May after a strong earnings season and signs of easing inflation buoyed investor optimism. .VIX YTD mountain CBOE Volatility Index In fact, the CBOE Volatility Index, known as Wall Street's fear gauge, is currently at 14. The broad market index was last around 5,220. Traders will have to rely on macroeconomic data for the next several weeks, including the May jobs report that's on deck next Friday.

Persons: Stocks, what's, Olivier Sarfati, Sarfati, Jensen Huang's, Josh Brown, Jonathan Krinsky, Jeff deGraff, CNBC's, deGraff, Rob Ginsberg, JC O'Hara, Roth, Dow Jones, Thomas Urano, Jobs, Cook Organizations: Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Ritholtz Wealth, Semiconductors, VanEck Semiconductor, Macro, Wolfe Research, Advisory, PMI, Manufacturing, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Body, Services PMI, Labor, Girls Global, University of, District of Columbia, Consumer Credit Locations: Smucker, Washington

☆ The small-cap slump is getting historically long. Here's what needs to change for a rebound
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

"With yields holding firm at elevated levels , large caps continue to outperform small caps. Hopes for multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year have dimmed after recent inflation readings showed signs of stickiness. An economy that is growing more slowly, but with cooler inflation, could be the combination small caps need. Small caps could also benefit from an uptick in the global economy that benefits areas like manufacturing that has heavy representation in the small-cap index. Investors who really want exposure to small caps could also look outside of the U.S. Wolfe Research analyst Rob Ginsberg said in a May 29 note to clients that global small caps are outperforming their U.S. counterparts and are poised for a potential breakout.

Persons: Russell, Todd Sohn, JC O'Hara, Roth MKM, Chad Miller, you've, Miller, Cayla, Seder, Mark Haefele, Solita, Angelo Kourkafas, Edward Jones, Rob Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC, ESG, Silicon Valley Bank, Federal Reserve, Big Tech, Companies, UBS, Institute, Supply, PMI, Investors, U.S . Wolfe Research Locations: Thrivent, Silicon

☆ It may be time to take some profits in Nvidia, chart analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Nvidia is now a $2.8 trillion company, an eyewatering figure that places the graphics processing unit maker just behind Apple ($2.9 trillion) and Microsoft ($3.2 trillion) in the S & P 500. At the same time, however, more investors wonder if Nvidia is overvalued and they should start taking profits, especially as the broader market comes under pressure from higher Treasury yields. Nvidia has surged above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and it now boasts a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 66. A move toward the upper band could mean the stock is overbought. Correction: A previous version of this article misstated the values of Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft.

Persons: Josh Brown, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg Organizations: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Walmart, Netflix, Wealth, Bollinger

☆ Short squeezes driven by renewed meme enthusiasm about to violently reverse, says chart analyst
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Technical signals are indicating the dramatic meme stock rally , driven by a short squeeze, could soon come to a painful end, according to Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg. A short squeeze occurs when investors who had bet against a stock by borrowing shares and hoping to buy them back later at a lower price luck out. This then pushes the stock price higher. SunPower , another short squeeze candidate, dropped 19% Wednesday before the open, after surging 60% Tuesday. Wolfe Research said an index it manages with Nomura that measures stocks with high short interest this week "rallied into a lower high at long-term resistance."

Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Nomura, Michael Bloom Organizations: GameStop, AMC, Wolfe Research

☆ Bitcoin price may not retest this year's highs for another five months
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"It could take three to five months for bitcoin to re-test recent highs," H.C. Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese told CNBC. BTC.CM= 3M mountain Bitcoin has fallen 11% this quarter Bitcoin miners offer high beta exposure to bitcoin and have historically outperformed it during bull cycles, he added. Colonnese also pointed out that corrections between 25% and 30% are "par for the course" for bitcoin, even in bull cycles. "Looking at previous price cycles, bitcoin has historically peaked between one to one and a half years after a halving event with the bull stage running longer in each subsequent cycle," Colonnese said. "Assuming a similar duration for this bull stage of the price cycle, bitcoin may not reach its cycle peak until October 2025," Colonnese added.

Persons: it's, bitcoin, Wainwright, Mike Colonnese, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Colonnese, Bitcoin, It's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S, Metrics, CNBC, Wolfe Research

☆ Bitcoin losses could steepen after the cryptocurrency breaks below $60,000, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The bitcoin sell-off could get worse before it gets better, according to analysts who look only at price charts. The downtrend intensified on Wednesday when it tumbled under the $60,000 level for the first time since February, as stubborn inflation and uncertainty around Federal Reserve interest rate policy kept markets under pressure. That was a key support level for bitcoin, representing the approximate convergence of the March low and 100-day moving average, according to Ari Wald, an analyst at Oppenheimer. Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg said $60,000 bitcoin looks "vulnerable" and that $50,000 could be in play. Bitcoin traded between $60,000 and $74,000 since mid-March, when the cryptocurrency reached new records and has failed multiple times to break out.

Persons: Ari Wald, Oppenheimer, It's, bitcoin, David Keller, Wald, Keller, Geoff Kendrick, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Bitcoin, —, Michael Bloom, Rob Ginsberg's Organizations: CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ S&P 500 forming a troubling 'bear flag' pattern, Wolfe Research says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Technical analyst Rob Ginsberg said in a note to clients late Tuesday that the recent bounces for the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 look suspiciously like "bear flags," an ominous chart pattern. "Equities ended the month on a sour note, as last week's dead cat bounces stalled out beneath resistance. A "bear flag" is a technical pattern that sometimes develops during short-term bounces in a broader market decline. Last week, the S & P 500 rose 2.7%, its best weekly performance since November. Ginsberg said in the note that he sees potential downside to the 4,800 level on the S & P 500, which would equal a further decline of about 4.5%.

Persons: Rob Ginsberg, doesn't, Ginsberg Organizations: Wolfe Research, Nasdaq

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