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☆ 'The most expensive market of all time': Billionaire investor David Einhorn says it's probably not the best time to buy — but shares 2 stocks he's betting on
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Einhorn said he's not bearish, but there will likely be better entry points into the market. Add David Einhorn to the list of top Wall Streeters pointing out how expensive the stock market is. Advertisement"This is a really, really, really pricey environment, but it doesn't necessarily make me bearish. Einhorn called this "the most expensive market of all time, as far as I can see, at least since I've been managing." AdvertisementBank of AmericaEinhorn is one of many to highlight stock valuations as a factor likely to impact forward returns.

Persons: David Einhorn, Einhorn, he's, CNH Industrials, it's, I've, Bank of America Einhorn, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Rob Arnott, Nelson Peltz, CNH, that's, That's Organizations: Alpha, Delivering Alpha, Capital, Bank of America, Research, Trian Partners, AG

☆ Investing legend Rob Arnott says it's an 'extraordinary opportunity' to make these 3 trades set to deliver over 10% annual returns for a decade — crushing large-cap stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Small-caps, small-cap value, non-US value stocks are expected to outperform with low valuations. Research Affiliates Founder Rob Arnott sees a bear market ahead for large-cap growth stocks. That spells trouble for the S&P 500, which is heavily made up of giant growth stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. Small-cap stocks, small-cap value stocks, and non-US value stocks are all poised to deliver at least 10% returns annually over the next 10 years, he said. Small-cap value stocks (Russell 2000 Value index) are also cheap, with a 14 CAPE ratio.

Persons: Rob Arnott, Arnott, Russell, Vanguard Russell Organizations: Research, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Russell, Equity, Vanguard Locations: Japan, Europe, U.S

☆ Microsoft Copilot's underperformance is the latest red flag for investments in AI
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

The big storyA Copilot conundrumMicrosoft; Chelsea Jia Feng/BIMicrosoft's challenges with its flagship AI product could be another red flag for an industry with high hopes for the tech. Earlier this year, analysts at Barclays highlighted an under-the-radar risk to AI bets: the depreciation costs related to AI chips . A potential Trump trade plan beneficiary: US semiconductor jobs. If Trump's proposed trade plan is enacted, the American semiconductor industry could see hiring growth. Walmart might be just fine under Trump's proposed trade plan.

Persons: Copilot, Chelsea Jia Feng, Insider's Ashley Stewart, Satya Nadella didn't, doesn't, Ashley, It's, Sam Altman, Alistair Barr, Alyssa Powell, Jared Spataro, OpenAI, Biden, Carlyle, Will Matt Gaetz, Will Trump, Rob Arnott, Arnott, ANGELA WEISS, Trump's, Ilya Sutskever, Mira Murati, Rebecca Zisser, homebuyers, Trump, Bob Iger, Dan DeFrancesco, Grace Lett, Ella Hopkins, Hallam Bullock, Amanda Yen, New York.Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Microsoft, Chelsea, Getty, Lumen Technologies, Barclays, Trump, Treasury, UFC, Republican, Getty Images, Elon, Spirit Airlines, JetBlue, Walmart, Walmart US, Shoppers, The Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Rio de Janeiro, New York, Chicago, London, New York.Milan

☆ 'This looks and feels like the year 2000 to me': Investing legend Rob Arnott says the stock market's record rally reminds him of the dot-com bubble peak
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

He said comparisons to the dot-com peak in 2000 are fair. Advertisement"This looks and feels like the year 2000 to me," Arnott told Business Insider on November 11. But Arnott believes AI optimism, which has driven the lion's share of the rally, is already fully priced in. At 37 times earnings, just below the late-2021 peak of 38, before the market fell by 25%, and the 2000 peak of 43, right in front of a 50% loss. "This is a really, really, really pricey environment, but it doesn't necessarily make me bearish.

Persons: Rob Arnott, he's, Arnott, —, Donald Trump, Trump, disruptors, There's, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, David Einhorn, Einhorn Organizations: Nvidia, Intel, Chief US, Business, Goldman Sachs Bank of America's Global, Equity, Bank of America, CNBC's, Alpha Locations: irrelevance

☆ Three stocks are getting dropped from the S&P 500. This ETF sees them as rebound candidates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-21 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"That's what gets them to a market cap big enough to be of interest. The resulting portfolio is effectively a small cap value fund with upside. Illiquid deletions "Deletions tend to be thinly traded, small cap, illiquid. To be sure, the strategy doesn't work for every stock that falls out of a large cap index. That's roughly the picture we have for deletions," Arnott said.

Persons: Rob Arnott, Stocks, they've, Arnott, Russell, NIXT Organizations: Airlines, Rad Laboratories, Research, American Airlines, Architects

☆ The Fed harbors an illusion that it has an influence over the macro economy, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed harbors an illusion that it has an influence over the macro economy, analyst saysRob Arnott, chairman of Research Affiliates, discusses the U.S. economy and the market outlook.

Persons: Rob Arnott Organizations: Research

☆ Investors are missing gains by passing on the market's least-loved stocks, investing legend Rob Arnott says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A portfolio of stocks booted from indexes would make an investor 74 times wealthier between 1991 and 2023, the research said. Authors Rob Arnott and Forrest Henslee announced the creation of NIXT, a fund that tracks deletions. The firm's founder and investing legend Rob Arnott and vice president Forrest Henslee wrote that stocks dropped by an index outperform for at least five years with remarkable persistence. After being deleted from an index, nixed stocks can outdo the market by an average of 5% a year. When an index decides to remove an asset, it's essentially creating excessive selling momentum, Arnott wrote.

Persons: Stocks, Rob Arnott, Forrest Henslee, —, Arnott, That's Organizations: Research Affiliates, Service, Nasdaq, Research

☆ What rate cut? The Fed's next move could be a hike if inflation stays stubbornly high, legendary investor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

A rebound in inflation risks prompting another rate hike from the Fed, Rob Arnott told Bloomberg TV. The Fed's projected 25-basis point rate cut won't be enough to stimulate the economy, he noted. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The legendary investor is forecasting that inflation will be 3.5%-5% by the end of the year, he told Bloomberg TV.

Persons: Rob Arnott, — Organizations: Fed, Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg TV, Research, Business

☆ AI revolution is 'very real,' says Research Affiliates' Rob Arnott
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAI revolution is 'very real,' says Research Affiliates' Rob ArnottRob Arnott, Research Affiliates founder and chairman, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Nvidia, the semiconductor company's competitors, markets, and more

Persons: Rob Arnott Rob Arnott Organizations: Research, Nvidia

☆ Insider Today: Amazon's AI problem
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-02 | by ( Matt Turner | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Also read:AdvertisementGetty Images; Alyssa Powell/BIThe best investments everBI asked seven heavyweight investors, including Rob Arnott and Bob Elliott, to identify the best trades of their careers. Each shared the top investments they've made, and explained how the lessons from those decisions still apply today. Getty Images; Alyssa Powell/BIAmerica's ridiculous hiring hurdleFewer American men than ever are working right now, and unemployment insurance may be at least partially to blame. Getty Images; Alyssa Powell/BIA better way to sell homesFixed-rate mortgages guarantee homeowners will pay the same amount each month for decades.

Persons: —, You'll, Kitty, Flopsy, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Andrej Sokolow, Carter Smith, Alyssa Powell, Amazon, Rob Arnott, Bob Elliott, Andrea Mac Organizations: Service, Business, Google, Getty, Bloomberg Locations: Denmark, America

☆ Trump is a convicted felon. Here's what it means for the former president.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at the historic guilty verdict against former President Donald Trump . In a historic verdict, former President Donald Trump was convicted of all 34 criminal counts related to a hush-money payment made to a porn star , write Business Insider's Laura Italiano, Jacob Shamsian, and Natalie Musumeci. AdvertisementIt's the first time a US president has become a convicted felon. This was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge that was corrupt," Trump told reporters in the Manhattan courtroom hallway. Trump told reporters Thursday the "real verdict is going to be November 5 by the people."

Persons: —, Donald Trump, Tyler Le, Laura Italiano, Jacob Shamsian, Natalie Musumeci, Trump, Stormy Daniels, BI's Lloyd Lee, There's, didn't, Chip Somodevilla, Scott Eisen, Joe Biden, Alyssa Powell, Rob Arnott, Bob Elliott, Paul Singer's, Jane Street, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Liz Reid, Satya Nadella, Sam Altman, Nadella, Kevin Dietsch, Charles Schwab, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Republican, Trump, NBC, Getty, Wall, Elliott Management, BI, Tech, Sigma, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Big Locations: Giza, Manhattan, Bridgewater, New York, London

☆ Investing legend Rob Arnott shares 3 trades to exploit underappreciated 'asymmetries' in the market right now — and 6 cheap investments he's betting will deliver 'double-digit' annual returns over the
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But both inflation and economic growth have upside and downside risks relative to consensus. AdvertisementOn inflation, Arnott believes it's far more likely that it surprises to the upside. AdvertisementTo take advantage of these asymmetries in the market, Arnott said that value stocks and TIPS are two investments that would perform well in a higher-inflation environment. One way investors can gain exposure to these assets is through funds like the iShares Core S&P U.S. Value ETF (IUSV), the Schwab U.S. More specifically, value stocks within both developed and emerging markets are trading in their "cheapest decile ever" compared to growth stocks, Arnott said.

Persons: —, Rob Arnott, Arnott, it's, there's, I've, I'm Organizations: Service, Treasury, Securities, Business, Research Affiliates, Federal Reserve, Value, Schwab, MLP, Funds, Equity Locations: Schwab U.S

We asked seven pro investors to identify the best trades of their careers and explain how the lessons from those decisions still apply today. The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the VIX, shot above 40, essentially meaning traders were betting that the stock market would be exceptionally rocky over the following month. Jeff Muhlenkamp, lead portfolio manager at Muhlenkamp & CompanyJeff Muhlenkamp Muhlenkamp & CompanyJeff Muhlenkamp's namesake Muhlenkamp Fund (MUHLX) has been in the top 3% of its category in the past half-decade, thanks to trades like one he pulled off on Chinese internet firm Baidu (BIDU). "I pretty much expected, 'OK, if I get a double out of this in five years, I'll be happy' — that's pretty decent money," Muhlenkamp said. He noted that industrials within the Russell Mid Cap value index have returned 116% over the previous five years.

Persons: —, That's, Michael Burry, Warren Buffett, Berkshire, Rob Arnott, Tim Boyle, Arnott, I'd, Bob Elliott, Bob Elliott's, Elliott, Jeff Muhlenkamp, Jeff Muhlenkamp Muhlenkamp, Jeff Muhlenkamp's, Muhlenkamp, you've, Sona Menon, Cambridge Associates Sona Menon, Bryant VanCronkhite, Allspring Bryant VanCronkhite Allspring Bryant VanCronkhite, VanCronkhite, Russell, industrials, James Davolos, Davolos, George Patton, Harley Bassman, Harley Bassman's, Bassman, Merrill Lynch, I'm Organizations: Service, American Express, Business, Research, Bloomberg, Getty, Bridgewater Associates, Treasury, Securities, Muhlenkamp, Baidu, Google, North, Cambridge Associates, Allspring, Horizon Kinetics, Opportunities Fund, Credit Suisse Locations: industrials, West Africa, New York City, Guinea

☆ Nvidia 'seems bubbly' because it won't be able to maintain its dominant market share, investing legend Rob Arnott says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Nvidia "seems bubbly" as its semiconductor market share isn't sustainable, Rob Arnott told CNBC. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . According to Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott, Nvidia's market success is based on the idea that it will continue to dominate the semiconductor industry into the future. You can keep your 90+ market share and super chips.

Persons: Rob Arnott, —, Arnott Organizations: Nvidia, CNBC, AMD, Intel, Service, Research, Taiwan Semi, Bank of America, Broadcom Locations: Taiwan

☆ Markets are priced based on narratives, says Research Affiliates' Rob Arnott
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets are priced based on narratives, says Research Affiliates' Rob ArnottRob Arnott, Research Affiliates founder and chairman, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss Arnott's thoughts on the potential macroeconomic risks, how the value strategy is a bit more insulated, and more.

Persons: Rob Arnott Rob Arnott Organizations: Research

☆ Now that inflation is slowing, here's when 10 experts think we'll see a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

High interest rates could slow consumer spending and lead to layoffs. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates 10 consecutive times to fight inflation as the country emerged from its pandemic recovery. Here's how experts are feeling about the economy headed into the new year, and whether they think a recession is on the horizon. Some think a recession is likely in 2024Some experts predict high interest rates will take a toll on the economy, making a recession likely sometime next year. AdvertisementOthers think a recession is unlikely in 2024Other experts don't see a recession hitting the US economy in the next year.

Persons: —, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, he's, Ken Griffin, we're, Griffin, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, Marc Lasry, Lasry, Rob Arnott, Jeffrey Gundlach, Bill Adams, Raphael Bostic, Brian Moynihan, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Goldman, Hatzius Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Citadel, UBS, Capital, National Bureau of Economic Research, CNBC, DoubleLine, Comerica Bank, Atlanta Federal Reserve, UCLA, Bank of America, Reuters Locations: United States, Dallas, Atlanta

☆ Hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen expects a recession to come and go quickly before a stock market rally in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Billionaire hedge fund boss Steve Cohen doesn't expect a deep recession or a prolonged market downturn. Cohen said his hedge fund, Point72, maintains a "pretty positive" outlook on the economy. AdvertisementAdvertisementSteve Cohen, the billionaire chief of hedge fund Point72 and the owner of the New York Mets, has an upbeat outlook for the US economy and financial markets. AdvertisementAdvertisementEarlier this week, investing pioneer Rob Arnott shared a contrasting outlook for the economy this week. Recessions always start with an economy that's been booming.

Persons: Steve Cohen doesn't, Cohen, —, Steve Cohen, Rob Arnott, Arnott, Jerome Powell, CME's, Powell Organizations: Service, New York Mets, CNBC

☆ 'Recessions always start with an economy that's been booming': An investing pioneer explains why he sees 50% chance of a downturn in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investing pioneer Rob Arnott said there's a 50-50 chance of a recession in the coming year. "People will say that recessions don't start with a booming economy," Arnott told CNBC Thursday. "There's a couple of headwinds that play against growth and in favor of value," Arnott said. AdvertisementAdvertisementHe said persistent inflation supports the case for value stocks rather than growth stocks, since they provide a greater margin of safety. Elevated inflation, too, sustains higher bond yields, which suggests a higher discount rate for long-term future growth, and ultimately "reduces the value of growth stocks relative to value stocks."

Persons: Rob Arnott, there's, Arnott, — Organizations: CNBC, Service, Research Affiliates

☆ Recessions always start with an economy that's been booming, says Research Affiliates' Rob Arnott
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecessions always start with an economy that's been booming, says Research Affiliates' Rob ArnottRob Arnott, founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss finding opportunities in the market, the probability of recession, and more.

Persons: Rob Arnott Rob Arnott, Squawk Organizations: Research Affiliates

☆ 'Big Short' investor Greg Lippmann eyes resilient assets for tough environment: 'buy the bad at the horrible pricing'
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Greg Lippmann of "The Big Short" fame sees a soft landing as unlikely, he told Bloomberg TV. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementGreg Lippmann, founding partner at LibreMax Capital, is focused on resilient assets as the chances of a soft landing are slim. That comes as high interest rates, weakened credit availability, and an office vacancy uptrend have all become mounting pressures on commercial real estate. But other ones are going to turn out to be medium to bad," he told Bloomberg TV, adding that, "And you just buy the bad at the horrible pricing.

Persons: Greg Lippmann, —, Lippmann, Ryan Gosling, It's, Rob Arnott Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, LibreMax

☆ This chart shows how AI hype has taken over the stock market as companies try to cash in on the frenzy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Companies that mentioned AI in earnings saw their stocks rise 4.6% on average, a study from Wall Street Zen found. Meanwhile, companies that didn't mention AI saw stock gains of nearly half that. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. What's more, 67% of companies' stocks climbed after mentioning AI, and among those gainers the jump was 8.5% on average. AdvertisementAdvertisement"Overconfident markets paradoxically transform brilliant future business prospects into even more brilliant current stock price levels," he wrote in a note.

Persons: ChatGPT, —, Adobe, Expedia, Rob Arnott Organizations: Wall, Service, Wall Street Zen, Carrier, Meta, Nvidia Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ How AI reshapes the economy: Wall Street legends David Rosenberg and Rob Arnott told us massive upheaval is coming for the job market — and overzealous investors are fueling a stock bubble
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Both David Rosenberg and Rob Arnott see big disruption coming for the labor market. AI stocks are also overextended amid the current mania, they said. Rob Arnott says AI will evolve rapidly and upend the labor market. He added: "The implications of generative AI on the labor market will be one of upheaval and one of escalating job uncertainty." Beware of an AI-stock bubbleFor Arnott, AI will undoubtedly be good for bottom lines.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rob Arnott, Rosenberg, Arnott, Tim Boyle, aren't, Merrill Lynch, it's, Tesla, that's, Gluskin Sheff Rosenberg Organizations: Labor, Research, Bloomberg, Getty, North, Rosenberg Research Locations: North American, ChatGPT

☆ Americans aren't spending like they used to
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

You can also download the app to get notifications about our biggest markets stories. Spending has remained elevated even through the Fed's 10 straight rate hikes, but warning signs of a change have started to surface. That's going to further take the wind out of Americans' brisk spending over the last few years. From David Rosenberg to Rob Arnott, experts are sharing what the disruptive technology can mean for the economy, jobs, and stock market. The biggest companies and banks can't agree on where the stock market is heading next.

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, You'll, let's, Derek Davis, Patek Pilippe, Audemars, Jerome Powell, Brian Moynihan, Morgan Stanley, Andy Ryan, Pablo Hernández de Cos, David Rosenberg, Rob Arnott, Stocks, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Phil Rosen, Max Adams, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Big Apple, Portland Portland Press, Getty, Rolex, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Bank of Spain, Fed, Wall Street, Royal, Nvidia, Tesla, Morningstar Locations: Madrid, Phoenix, Miami, Royal Caribbean, New York, London

☆ Wall Street titans including David Rosenberg and Rob Arnott sound off on AI: What they told us about the disruptive technology — from how it will lead to 'permanent displacement' of jobs, to why it's
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

AI's impact on the job marketRob Arnott"Every important disruption since the start of the industrial revolution has cost millions of people jobs. Millions of jobs will be lost to those who know how to use AI. "The implications of generative AI on the labor market will be one of upheaval and one of escalating job uncertainty. Are AI stocks in a bubble? Rosenberg"Advancements in AI technology, and its knock-on effects on profitability and productivity, is a legitimate investment thesis.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rob Arnott, Savita Subramanian, Cam Harvey, Jawad Mian, Jobs, Merrill Lynch, aren't, Rosenberg, Harvey, Arnott, Brad Cornell, Aswath, There's, that's, Savita, –, capex, Mian Organizations: Industries, Investors, Research, Rosenberg Research, North, Bank of America Securities, Duke University, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Tech, Software, Services, Professional Services, IT Services Locations: North American, ChatGPT, Asia, Taiwan

☆ Why the stock market's running of the bulls might be about to kick off
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Optimists rejoice — Wall Street strategists just pinpointed a handful of trends, indicators, and gauges that all suggest 2023 could see a new running of the bulls. The S&P 500 has already seen a sturdy 8% gain to start 2023, but year-end gains could be even bigger if one of BofA's bullish surprises pan out. "The S&P 500 has now spent more than 25 weeks above its 200-week moving average," Lee said. "Since 1950, there are zero instances of the S&P 500 making a new low once it has recovered above the 200-week moving average and spent at least 15 weeks there." US stock futures rise early Monday, as investors brace for a crucial week of earnings reports to weigh recession risks.

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