And much like the COVID pandemic, calling the big event wouldn't necessarily have made your year-ahead financial market forecast much better or your bottom lines any fatter. Forecasts are a lifeblood in markets because no one can take a position without at least some conviction about what might happen next. The Federal Reserve's quarterly economic and policy rate projections for three years hence are a case in point. For context, the 4 point error range on unemployment rate forecasts is a difference of almost 6 million jobs and a 4.6 point range on GDP is more than a trillion dollars of output. The European Central Bank is more explicit about what market price assumptions it uses in staff forecasts.

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