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Why are September and October historically weak for stocks? It is a byproduct of an old weakness in the U.S. financial system. The limited ability of the government to react was the primary impetus for the passage of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. Yes, and if one compares the frequency, intensity and misery of financial panics during the 1800s, this is plainly evident. But, by and large, the U.S. financial system has been much more stable since the Federal Reserve became operational in late 1914.
Persons: Mark Higgins, Morgan Organizations: Fund, Federal, Fed, U.S, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S, New York, New York City, United States
Joe Raedle | Getty ImagesThe president has no direct control over interest ratesAs it stands, the president exerts no direct control over interest rates. The Federal Reserve sets interest rates, and it operates independently of the White House. Last month, Trump said that if elected he would "bring interest rates way down." Now, however, Trump has cautioned against the Fed lowering rates shortly before the presidential election in November. "I think he's going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates."
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Raedle, Brett House, Trump, Fed Trump, Jerome Powell, Trump's, reappoint Powell, Powell, Greg McBride, Wells Fargo Organizations: Federal Reserve, White, Fed, Columbia Business School, Reserve Act, Republican, National Association of Black Journalists, Markets, U.S, Bloomberg Businessweek, Fox Business, Barclays Locations: Lago, Palm Beach , Florida, Chicago
Your mortgage interest rate is based in part on how risky lenders consider you to be as a borrower. Use these strategies for lowering mortgage interest rates. Improving your credit scoreRaising your credit score is one way to get a lower interest rate on your mortgage. The role of credit in mortgage ratesThe impact of credit scores on mortgage rates is significant. Locking in your rateA rate lock lets you cement your interest rate while you finalize your home purchase.
Persons: They'll, they'd, Freddie Mac, , you'll Organizations: ICE Mortgage Technology, PenFed Credit Union, New, Mortgage, Survey Locations: Portland , Oregon, California
London CNN —President Joe Biden had a shaky performance in last night’s presidential debate, triggering panic in the Democrat camp. Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, repeated multiple falsehoods while doubling down on his record of cutting taxes and hiking tariffs during his first presidential term. If repeated in a second Trump term, many economists fear that kind of agenda could stoke inflation at a critical moment and add to America’s rapidly growing debt mountain. That could pull the typical year-end election relief rally forward, said Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research. The US dollar has also been reactive — it edged higher as initial CNN polling found that Trump was viewed as the winner of the debate.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, shrugged, , Keith Lerner, Barack Obama, Trump, Lerner, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Antonio Ernesto Di Giacomo, , Goldman Sachs ’ Scott Rubner, Jonas Goltermann, Emmanuel Macron, Katie Nixon, France’s, CDK, Ramishah Maruf, Eva Rothenberg, aren’t, they’ve, Scott Campbell, CNN they’ve, Jordan Valinsky, Tim Wentworth Organizations: London CNN, Democrat, Trump, , Biden, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Investors, Capital Economics, CNN, Renaissance, Northern Trust Wealth Management, CAC, CDK, Auto, Capital City Buick GMC, Bloomberg, Walgreens Locations: France, , North America, United States, Canada, Berlin , Vermont, Eastern Europe, America
Beyond the academic argument, whether the Fed cuts interest rates has a significant political bearing this year. Voters are unhappy about higher prices, and they feel weighed down by high interest rates, too. Interest rates may seem abstract, but they can have a real impact on how people view their financial situations. But lowering interest rates should make people feel better about economic conditions and could give Democrats and Biden a boost. He's well aware lower interest rates would boost the economy, lift people's moods, and, ultimately, help the party in charge.
Persons: Jay Powell, — Donald Trump —, Powell, Joe Biden, Patrick McHenry, McHenry, Skanda Amarnath, it's, Larry Summers, Biden, Amarnath, — Trump, Hillary Clinton's, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Paul Volcker, Volcker, shied, Trump, Elizabeth Pancotti, Sarah Binder, Binder, what's, They've, Diane Swonk, Emily Stewart Organizations: Federal, Trump, Republican, Financial Services, Fed, Roosevelt Institute, George Washington University, Reserve, KPMG US, Business Locations: North Carolina, It's, America, Roosevelt
TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares mostly fell Wednesday although a strong report on U.S. consumer confidence and hopes the Federal Reserve is finished with its aggressive interest rate hikes sent shares higher on Wall Street. Food delivery company Meituan's Hong Kong-traded shares dropped 11% after it forecast its revenue will fall in the current quarter. The loosening grip from inflation and a resilient economy have raised hopes that the Fed might finally be finished with raising its benchmark interest rate. Hopes that the Fed will keep its benchmark interest rate steady were reaffirmed Tuesday by Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors. The Fed will meet again in December to update its interest rate policy.
Persons: Australia's, Hang Seng, Matthew Weller, Forex.com, Brent, Tesla, Christopher Waller, , ” Waller, Damian J, Troise, Alex Veiga Organizations: TOKYO, Reserve, Nikkei, China Evergrande, Benchmark, New York Mercantile Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Microsoft, GE Healthcare Technologies, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed’s, Governors, American Enterprise Institute, U.S ., AP Business Locations: Hong, Shanghai, Hong Kong, China, OPEC, Washington
Mike Pence, who served as Donald Trump’s vice president and is vying to helm the White House, is campaigning on eliminating the Fed’s employment mandate. And what would change if the employment mandate is done away with, if anything? Lawmakers on Capitol Hill, with the sitting president’s approval, can simply amend the Federal Reserve Act to eliminate the employment mandate or even add another one. In CNN’s town hall with Pence earlier this month, the former vice president again floated the idea of eliminating the employment mandate. It seems clear that Democrats would take issue with any attempts to rid the Fed of its employment mandate.
Persons: Mike Pence, Donald Trump’s, Jerome Powell’s, Jimmy Carter, Powell, , Peter Ireland, Laurence Meyer, ” Adriana Kugler, Joe Biden, , ” Meyer, Ben Bernanke, Pence, we’ve, ” Pence, Maxine Waters Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, Reserve, Boston College, Relief, Economic Security, Fed’s, of Governors, Committee, Lawmakers, Capitol, , Financial Locations: Washington, Ireland, CNN’s
He said US value stocks and developed economy non-US stocks offer the best returns. But there are still opportunities for big returns in US value stocks, he said. But an even bigger opportunity lies in non-US stocks in developed economies, which Arnott believes will return 15% on a yearly basis over the next decade. The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) is one way to gain exposure to non-US stocks, while the Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) offers exposure to US value stocks. Arnott made the same calls on non-US stocks and US value stocks back in December.
The recent lineup of bank failures has depositors suddenly asking the simple question: is my money safe? Jason J. Howell, a certified financial planner and the president of Jason Howell Company, says yes, your money is safe. This way, if you need cash quickly, you could get it. "You're going to have to go to the US TreasuryDirect to buy those bonds," Howell said. "Money markets nearly went bust in the 2008 financial crisis, so there's no need to put a wrapper around it," Howell said.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Chair Powell: Here's why the Fed used section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve ActFed Chair Jerome Powell tackles questions from reporters after the central bank announced it was raising interest rates another 25 basis points.
The S&P 500 still posted a gain for the week, which included a string of major market events, and stood not far from five-month highs. U.S. job growth accelerated sharply in January, with nonfarm payrolls surging by 517,000 jobs, well above an estimate of 185,000. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.6%, the Dow slipped 0.15%, and the Nasdaq gained 3.3%. Alphabet (GOOGL.O) shares dropped 2.7% after the Google parent posted fourth-quarter profit and sales short of Wall Street expectations. The S&P 500 posted 16 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 127 new highs and 16 new lows.
The Act states the Fed should conduct monetary policy "so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates." On that basis, the average core PCE inflation rate since 2010 is exactly 2.0% - even after the recent scare and with the monthly rate ebbing again fast. At 1.25%, real 10-year yields - measured by market inflation expectations rather than prevailing inflation - are far above sub-zero post-pandemic troughs and are also some of the highest in over a decade. And hence the cat and mouse game between Fedspeak and market pricing - rather than a material change to investors' assumption that the Fed is nearly done. U.S. Fed has missed the mark on inflationThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
Recession is likely to replace inflation as the driver of the economy in 2023, Mohamed El-Erian said. The global economy and investment portfolios would face a bigger range of potential outcomes, he said. The top economist warned US inflation will stay stubborn at around 4% because the Fed acted too late. "In this new year, recession, actual and feared, has joined inflation in the driver seat of the global economy and is likely to displace it," El-Erian said in a Financial Times opinion column Monday. "They should keep an open mind, if only to avoid repeating the mistake of prematurely dismissing inflation as transitory," he added.
Sheryl Palmer, CEO of Taylor Morrison, says the US is already in a housing recession. Some economists still aren't buying into the housing recession narrative. In 2023, Palmer said homebuyers should expect overall inventory volumes to drop as buyers scoop-up existing homes. Palmer's comments come on the heels of other business heads who expect the US housing market to have a tough year in 2023. But not everyone agrees that the US housing market is in a recession, or that it will face one in 2023.
Futures subdued after sharp Wall St selloff on Fed worries
  + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Concerns about steeper increase in borrowing costs have boosted dollar, while weighing on equities and bond markets this year, with the S&P 500 down 16.1% and the widely followed part of the Treasury yield curve deeply inverted - a harbinger of recession. As of Dec. 2, analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report a drop of 0.6% in fourth-quarter earnings after posting a 4.4% rise in the third quarter, according to Refinitiv IBES data. ET, Dow e-minis were down 37 points, or 0.11%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 3.5 points, or 0.09%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 2.25 points, or 0.02%. Among individual stocks, General Electric (GE.N) rose 1.5% in premarket trading after Oppenheimer upgraded the industrial conglomerate's stock to "outperform". Reporting by Devik Jain in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'SilvaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The International Monetary Fund predicts global growth will slow. The IMF anticipates global inflation will peak in late 2022, increasing from 4.7% in 2021 to 8.8%, and that it will "remain elevated for longer than previously expected." Global inflation will likely decrease to 6.5% in 2023 and to 4.1% by 2024, according to the IMF forecast. The agency noted the tightening of monetary policy across the world to combat inflation and the "powerful appreciation" of the U.S. dollar against other currencies. "Winter 2022 will be challenging for Europe, but winter 2023 will likely be worse," the IMF said.
Since the 1970s, US wage growth has stalled, with the top 1% seeing most of the gains. It's resulted in a "quiet fleecing" of the American worker, according to data analyzed by the Economic Policy Institute. Coined by the Economic Policy Institute, "quiet fleecing" describes decades of stagnant wage growth in the US despite rising productivity and costs of living. In theory, workers' wages rise in tandem with their productivity, or the output they provide to a company. It could be why more workers are getting vocal about quiet quitting, "acting their wage," or joining the Great Resignation.
We generate a present value for companies by estimating these outyear numbers and then discounting them to the present day using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model. That increased denominator means that present value of future earnings and cash flows declines. However, the present value of Company B's $10 in earnings is worth increasingly more relative to Company A's as rates rise. When rates go up — or are expected to go up — investors value companies using a lower valuation multiple. These so-called value stocks typically already have low multiples, making the risk of contraction less of an issue.
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