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It’s clearer than ever after months of close polling and years of intense polarization: Who wins the 2024 presidential election could come down to tiny differences in who votes and who stays home. But an analysis of the poll also shows how the composition of the electorate and small changes in who decides to vote could lead to small but important swings in the election. The more Democratic-leaning turnout universe is one that sees more women, nonwhite voters and higher-educated voters turning out, as well as those from the cities and suburbs. And the one favoring Republicans relies on the opposite: more white people, more men, more voters without college degrees and more from rural communities. But in the meantime, the analysis shows how small changes can have a big effect on a close election.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, Harris, pollsters Organizations: NBC, , Hart Research Associates, Democratic, Trump
Just 2% of voters say they’re unsure about the choice. Trump, meanwhile, leads among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters (56%-42%) and white voters without college degrees (64%-34%). This net gender gap of 34 points is larger than the 30-point gap in October’s NBC News poll. That’s a significant change from the final 2020 NBC News poll, when Biden was ahead of Trump by more than 20 points among these voters. And when it comes to the battle for Congress, 47% of voters say they prefer Democrats control Congress, while 46% want Republicans in charge.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, , Joe Biden’s, , Jeff Horwitt, Bill McInturff, We’ve, we’ve, McInturff, — Trump, Biden, — Harris, they’ve, Trump’s, That’s Organizations: NBC, Republican, White, Trump, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, Republicans —, Democrats —, Electoral, Black, The NBC, Biden, Republican Party Locations: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, U.S
— 42% of national registered voters pick Harris, while 40% choose Trump. Comparing Trump’s and Harris’ popularityIn addition, the CNBC poll shows Trump slightly more popular than Harris nationally, with Trump’s rating at 42% positive, 48% negative (-6 net rating), while Harris' stood at 39% positive, 49% negative (-10). But their ratings are almost identical in the battleground states — 44% positive, 49% negative for Trump (-5), compared with Harris’ 43% positive, 48% negative rating (-5). That 4-point edge for Republicans is identical in the combined battleground states, 48% for Republicans to 44% for Democrats. CNBC’s poll was conducted Oct. 15-19 of 1,000 registered voters, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Persons: CNBC’s, Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Kamala Harris, Harris, ” Trump, Trump, Jay Campbell, Campbell, Micah Roberts Organizations: Republican, Democrat, Trump, America Economic Survey, NBC News, CNBC, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, Republicans Locations: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona , Georgia
With voters citing the economy and inflation, abortion, immigration and democracy as top issues in this election, the survey tested a series of policy proposals on those topics, offering clues about which policies could move voters. The survey did not identify which party or candidate is associated with the proposal. While economic policies could move voters toward a candidate, the survey also finds that election denialism could turn them off. Voters across swing groups, including suburban women, independents, moderates and seniors, say they are less likely to support a candidate who denies the election results. The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters, 898 of whom were reached by cellphone, was conducted Oct. 4-8.
Persons: Donald Trump, Roe, Wade, , , Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona, Arroyo, , Trump, MAGA, Kamala Harris, Harris Organizations: NBC News, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, Republican, MAGA Republicans, Trump, NBC
Close elections always come down to turnout. So the bipartisan polling team behind the NBC News poll, Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research Associates, devised an experiment. What happens to the ballot test in NBC News’ brand-new national poll when you assume a turnout model that benefits the Democratic Party versus one that favors the GOP? Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied on the head-to-head ballot in the new October NBC News poll results, at 48% each. Assuming a turnout model that’s more favorable to Republicans puts Trump ahead by 2 points, 49%-47%.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris Organizations: NBC News, Hart Research Associates, NBC, Democratic Party, Republicans, Trump, Democrats, Democratic
Trump picks up the pace: From the Politics Desk
  + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( The Politics Desk | ) www.nbcnews.com   time to read: +6 min
Plus, senior political editor Mark Murray breaks down the fault lines in our new poll of Latino voters. Leading the charge for more events is Trump himself, a campaign official said, saying Trump was supposed to have a slow Sunday but insisted instead, “We got to do something,” leading to the rally in Erie, Pennsylvania. Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 54%-40% among registered Latino voters nationwide, the poll shows. “We are looking at Latino voters rather than a consolidated Latino community,” she added. Read more: Nnamdi Egwuonwu dives into how the Harris and Trump campaigns are targeting the increasingly fragmented Latino electorate in very different ways.
Persons: Donald Trump, Mark Murray, Harris, Katherine Doyle, Jake Traylor, Jonathan Allen, Trump, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, lobbed, , , Helene, Hurricane Helene, Matt Dixon, Adam Edelman, Megan Lebowitz, Brian Kemp hasn’t, Biden, Kemp, North Carolina’s Roy Cooper, ” Biden, Read, There’s, Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona, Arroyo, Republican pollster Micah Roberts, Telemundo’s Julio Vaqueiro, , Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Trump, GOP, Labor, , Georgia Gov, Republican, FEMA, Democratic, NBC News, Telemundo, CNBC, Catholic, Latina, Hart Research Associates, Press Locations: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, U.S, Mexico, Erie , Pennsylvania, Butler , Pennsylvania, Valdosta , Georgia, Hurricane, Georgia, North
Similarly, Latino voters’ preference for which party controls Congress stands at 54% Democrats, 42% Republicans — a much narrower gap than in past years. Surveying 1,000 Latino voters nationwide in English and Spanish, the poll also finds a striking split on immigration between Latino voters who prioritize a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and preventing discrimination, and those who focus more on border enforcement. Sixty-two percent of Latino voters believe immigration helps more than it hurts, versus 35% who think it hurts more than it helps. In this poll, 54% of Latino voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 42% who want Republicans in charge. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC Latino poll of 1,000 registered Latino voters was conducted Sept. 16-23.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, Joe Biden’s, , Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona, Arroyo, Republican pollster Micah Roberts, ” Trump, Victor Gutierrez, Gutierrez, Michelle García, Matthew Delao, Fredy Arguello, Delao, Arguello, ” Arguello, Harris ’, Biden, García Organizations: , NBC News, Telemundo, CNBC, Democratic, Trump, NBC, Republicans —, , Hart Research Associates, Republican, Democratic Party —, Young, Catholic Locations: New Jersey, Puerto Rican, Peruvian, Maryland, California, United States, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Spain, Cuba, Dominican Republic
Republican views of Taylor Swift have taken a nosedive in comparison to last year, a new NBC News poll shows, weeks after the pop singer announced her endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris. Just 12% of Republicans report positive attitudes toward the singer, down from 28% last year. Among Democrats, 58% view Swift in a positive light, a slight increase from 53% in 2023. About 26% of independents have a positive attitude toward Swift, a drop from 34% in 2023. The significant shift from Republican voters has pushed Swift’s overall favorability rating among registered voters lower than last year, decreasing from 40% in 2023 to 33% this year.
Persons: Taylor Swift, Kamala Harris, Swift, Jeff Horwitt, Democratic pollster, Bill McInturff, Horwitt, Harris, Donald Trump, ” Swift, Lady, , Sen, JD Vance, Trump’s, , Trump, TAYLOR SWIFT, ” Harris Organizations: NBC, Republican, Hart Research Associates, Democratic, NBC News Locations: R, Ohio
Two in three voters say the country is on the “wrong track,” as voters weigh whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump would be better able to change that less than two months from Election Day. The latest NBC News national poll finds 65% of registered voters surveyed earlier this month say the country is on the wrong track, while 28% say it’s on the right track. “While the wrong track data is now under 70% for the first time since September 2022, it is still a terrible 65% for the party in power,” Horwitt said. NBC News surveys have found steadily high rates of voters saying the country is on the wrong track for years — and especially since the coronavirus pandemic began in March 2020. But Harris does have an advantage over Trump when voters were asked which candidate better represents change, with 47% saying Harris and 38% saying Trump in the poll.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Jeff Horwitt, Bill McInturff, ” Horwitt, McInturff, Harris, Trump Organizations: NBC News, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, GOP, Republicans, NBC, Trump
Elon Musk’s support among Democrats has withered to a new low as he has embraced Republican politics, according to a national NBC News poll. Only 6% of Democrats in the poll, which was conducted Sept. 13-17, said they had positive feelings about Musk, while 79% said they had negative feelings. The numbers were flipped for Republicans, with 62% having positive feelings toward him and 14% negative feelings. Musk didn’t respond to a request for comment Tuesday. Overall public support for Musk is negative, with 34% holding positive views and 45% negative views, according to the poll.
Persons: Elon, Donald Trump, , , Jeff Horwitt, Democratic pollster, Bill McInturff, ” Horwitt, Musk, Kamala Harris Organizations: Republican, NBC News, Hart Research Associates, Democratic, SpaceX, Bloomberg, NBC, Trump, Democrats
Why Trump is polling better in Georgia than North CarolinaBy Steve KornackiThe latest round of New York Times/Siena College state polls is a continuation of what has become a pattern: Donald Trump seems to be faring slightly better in Georgia than in North Carolina. And Trump is up by 2 points in North Carolina, where he prevailed by 1.3 points four years ago. And yet — at least in polling — it’s Georgia, not North Carolina, where Trump seems better positioned. According to exit polling, Trump won the noncollege white vote in each state by roughly the same margin in 2020: 59 points in Georgia and 57 points in North Carolina. It’s a smaller lead among a slightly smaller share of the electorate than Harris has over those early voters.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Ben Kamisar, Steve Kornacki, Donald Trump, Trump, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Mark Robinson, we’re, Harris, , Bill McInturff, Republican pollster, Jeff Horwitt, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Trump, New York Times, Siena College, Times, Peach, GOP, Democratic, it’s, Republicans, Republican, Hart Research Associates, Wall Locations: Georgia, North Carolina, Siena, Democratic Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, Durham, it’s Georgia, Michigan , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,
Half of registered voters plan to vote early this fall, new figures from the September NBC News poll show, with Democrats continuing to run up the score among early voters and Republicans getting stronger backing from those who plan to vote in person on Election Day. It's a smaller lead among a slightly smaller share of the electorate than Harris has over those early voters. The massive political difference of early and Election Day voters is the latest evidence of a dramatic and enduring shift in the Trump years. And with that jump came a massive partisan difference — future President Joe Biden led among early voters by 26 points in the survey, while Trump led with Election Day voters by 29 points. But while the share of voters planning to vote early has dropped between the end of 2020 and now, the major partisan split remains.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, Harris, Bill McInturff, Republican pollster, Jeff Horwitt, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden Organizations: NBC, Republicans, Republican, Hart Research Associates, Trump, Wall, Election
Two-thirds of voters say their family income is falling behind the cost of living, and voters ranked the cost of living as their top concern in the election. Harris leads on abortion, fitness and change; Trump is ahead on the key issues of the border and inflationThe NBC News poll also tests Harris and Trump on 13 different issues and presidential qualities. But in this new poll, Harris is now at 48% positive, 45% negative (+3). And 66% of voters say their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living. Meanwhile, 65% of voters say the country is on the wrong track, compared to just 28% who say it’s heading in the right direction.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Biden’s, Harris ’ favorability, George W, Bush’s, , Biden, ” Harris, , Kamala Harris ’, , Jeff Horwitt, Democratic pollster, Bill McInturff, What’s, aren’t, ” Horwitt, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Jill Stein, Chase Oliver, Harris ’, George H.W, Ross Perot, That’s, it’s Organizations: NBC News, NBC, Trump, Hart Research Associates, Democratic, Republican, , Biden, Black, House Locations: U.S
If it's any solace, the company was not really for Wall Street, either; its stock has been languishing over the past decade or so. Investors are eating it up: Abercrombie's stock a year ago, your returns would be better than that of almost any other stock, including the Wall Street darling Nvidia. "Can you and I think of another apparel retailer who literally reinvented themselves and then went to the moon with sales and earnings? When its longtime CEO exited the company at the end of 2014, its sales had declined for 11 consecutive quarters. AdvertisementAs opposed to the Abercrombie of 20 years ago, whose logos screamed A&F, the modern Abercrombie is muted.
Persons: Abercrombie, millennials, Gen Zers, Janet Joseph Kloppenburg, Fitch, Fran Horowitz, Zachary Warring, Horowitz, It's, Abercrombie doesn't, it's, " Horowitz, Women's, Kloppenburg, they're, Ali Grant, they've, They've, Emily Stewart Organizations: Abercrombie, Fitch, JJK Research, Outfitters, Netflix, Hollister, CFRA Research, Digital, Banana, Old Navy, Business Locations: cologne
According to the poll, 64% of registered voters say they have a high level of interest in November's election — registering either a "9" or a 10" on a 10-point scale of interest. The lowest-ever level of high election interest in the poll during a presidential cycle was in March 2012 — at 59%. This election cycle, high interest has been both low and relatively flat for months, according to the poll. By party, the current poll shows 70% of self-identified Republicans saying they have high interest in the upcoming election, versus 65% of Democrats who say this. "They just aren't low interest," McInturff said of young voters.
Persons: Derrick Simonson, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Kennedy, Devin Fletcher, he's, Fletcher, wouldn't, Jeff Horwitt, Bill McInturff, , McInturff, Republican pollster Organizations: Wisconsin, Central Assembly, NBC News, Republican, Biden, Trump, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, NBC, Independents Locations: Douglas County, Superior , Wisconsin, U.S, Wayne , Michigan, New Jersey, New York
Why gold prices are at record highs
  + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( John Towfighi | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Central banks see gold as a long-term store of value and a safe haven during times of economic and international turmoil. When interest rates fall, gold prices tend to rise, as bullion becomes more appealing than income-paying assets like bonds. Investors also regard gold as a hedge against inflation, betting bullion will retain its value when prices rise. The People’s Bank of China bought gold for the 17th straight month in March, adding 160,000 ounces to bring reserves to 72.74 million troy ounces of gold, according to Reuters. Higher oil prices are likely to stoke concerns over inflation, boosting gold prices, according to the UBS research note.
Persons: China —, Ulf Lindahl, Lindahl, Morgan, JP Morgan, Janet Yellen’s, Yellen, Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Wells, Richard Galanti, It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Federal Reserve, China, People’s Bank of China, Reuters, UBS, Research Associates, Moody’s, of Commerce, Costco Locations: New York, China, India, Turkey, Central, Wells Fargo
And Biden's deficit versus Trump on handling immigration and the border is greater than 30 points. All together, these numbers explain why the poll shows Trump leading Biden by 5 points among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 general-election matchup, 47% to 42%. "What is most concerning is the erosion of Biden's standing against Trump compared to four years ago," Horwitt said. That said, the poll shows improving attitudes about the economy, with the share of voters believing the economy will get worse in the next year declining 14 points since October 2022. The two men are essentially tied on the issue of protecting democracy, with 43% of voters preferring Biden and 41% picking Trump.
Persons: Joe Biden, Wade, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden, Jeff Horwitt, Bill McInturff, Horwitt, Organizations: Force, Reproductive, NBC News, Biden, Trump, NBC, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, Republican, GOP, U.S . Locations: Washington ,, Israel, Trump, Biden's, Iowa, New Hampshire, U.S, Jordan, Michigan
Its militants killed 1,200 Israelis and foreign nationals, most of them civilians, and fired thousands of rockets into Israel. The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants or those killed by IDF airstrikes or errant Palestinian rockets. At the completion of a humanitarian truce that began on Nov. 24, Israel’s goal is to gain military control over northern Gaza and gradually ferret out Hamas in southern Gaza. The operation in the south “will require a very different mode of operation,” Novik said, because 2 million Palestinian civilians – half of them displaced from northern Gaza – live there. As long as Hamas remains a threat, most of the 200,000 Israelis evacuated from southern Israel cannot go home.
Persons: , Nimrod Novik, Israel, ” Novik, Jake Sullivan, Israel’s, , ” Jonathan Rynhold, Joe Biden, Biden, Jeff Horwitt, Gilad Shalit, Sara Hirschhorn, “ Israel, ” Hirschhorn Organizations: Hamas, Israel, , U.S, Israel Defense Forces, CBS, Bar Ilan University, NBC, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, Biden, Israel Democracy Institute, University of Haifa, Israel’s Finance Ministry, Palestinian Liberation Organization Locations: JERUSALEM, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon
"Failed promises, student loans, foreign policy in general," said Democrat Zico Schell, 23, of San Diego, when asked why he disapproves of Biden's job performance. "This poll is a stunner, and it's stunning because of the impact the Israel-Hamas war is having on Biden," he said. According to the poll, 40% of registered voters approve of Biden's job performance, while 57% disapprove, representing Biden's all-time low in approval (and all-time high in disapproval) in the poll since becoming president. It's only a slight overall change from September, when Biden's approval rating was at 41% — which was then tied with his previous low in the poll. Biden's approval rating dropped to 31% among these voters.
Persons: Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Brendan SMIALOWSKI, BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI, Joe Biden's, What's, Biden, Donald Trump, Israel, Meg Furey, Zico Schell, Jeff Horwitt, Bill McInturff, McInturff, Horwitt, It's Organizations: Economic Cooperation, APEC, Getty Images, , NBC News, Biden, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, Republican Locations: Asia, Woodside , California, California, AFP, Israel, Gaza, Austin , Texas, San Diego, Biden's
The CNBC All-America Economic Survey also finds support for President Joe Biden at nearly all-time lows and that he would lose by 4 points to former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head race. A smaller, but still solid 61% majority respond that it's important to fund military aid to Ukraine compared with 52% who support military and economic aid to Taiwan. Falling Biden supportMeanwhile, a combination of negative views on the economy and geopolitical tensions looks to be eroding support for President Biden. It's the highest disapproval and second-lowest approval rating of Biden's presidency. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwardsBiden's 32% approval rating on the economy is the lowest of his presidency, while the 63% economic disapproval rating is the second lowest.
Persons: Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Evelyn Hockstein, Donald Trump, Biden, Micah Roberts, Republican pollster, Jay Campbell, Campbell Organizations: Israeli, Hamas, Reuters, American, Israel, CNBC, America Economic, NBC, U.S, Republican, Hart Research Associates, Democratic, Trump Locations: Israel, Tel Aviv, U.S, Gaza, Mexico, Ukraine, Taiwan
House Republicans kick off their impeachment inquiry against President Joe Biden on Thursday, but a majority of voters do not believe the process should move forward. In a new national NBC News poll, 56% of registered voters say Congress should not hold hearings to start the process of removing Biden from office, while 39% say it should. An overwhelming majority of Democrats (88%) oppose the hearings, while 73% of Republicans support them. Just 35% of GOP voters say support for impeachment would make them more likely to support a lawmaker. But 62% of Democrats say voting to impeach Biden would make them less likely to support a member of Congress.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Kevin McCarthy, McCarthy, Donald Trump, Trump, Bill McInturff, Jeff Horwitt, Organizations: White, House Republicans, NBC News, NBC, Wall, Democratic, Hart Research Associates Locations: Rose, Washington
Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump arrives to address the Pray Vote Stand Summit at the Omni Shoreham Hotel on September 15, 2023 in Washington, DC. According to the poll, 62% have either major concerns (52%) or moderate concerns (10%) about Trump facing different criminal and civil trials for alleged wrongdoing, including for trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Another 60% have major concerns (45%) or moderate concerns (15%) about Biden's possible awareness or involvement in the business dealings of his son, Hunter, including alleged financial wrongdoing and corruption. And 47% have either major concerns (34%) or moderate concerns (13%) about Trump, at age 77, not having the necessary mental and physical health to be president for a second term. "I would vote third party in protest if it was Trump versus Biden," Chester added.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden's, Trump, Biden, Bill McInturff, Jeff Horwitt, , doesn't, Hunter, Mary Lyon, Kevin Chester, Chester Organizations: Omni, NBC News, Democratic, Republican, Hart Research Associates, Trump, Republicans, GOP, Biden aren't, NBC, Arizona Republican, Biden Locations: Washington ,, Fulton County , Georgia, Tucson , Arizona, Arizona
Republican presidential candidate former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at the Faith and Freedom Road to Majority conference at the Washington Hilton on June 24, 2023 in Washington, DC. Former President Donald Trump has expanded his lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the rest of the Republican presidential field since Trump's latest indictment on federal criminal charges, according to a new national NBC News poll. Yet the poll shows Trump with a sizable — and growing — lead over his Republican presidential rivals in the aftermath of that federal indictment. When the GOP presidential race gets reduced to just two candidates in the current survey, Trump gets support from 60% of Republican primary voters, while DeSantis gets 36%.
Persons: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, it's, Bill McInturff, Jeff Horwitt, Horwitt, Trump, Joe Biden, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, DeSantis Organizations: Washington Hilton, Washington , DC, Florida Gov, Republican, NBC News, Trump, GOP, Republicans, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, NBC, New, New Jersey Gov Locations: Washington ,, New Jersey, New York
People march together to protest the Supreme Court's decision in the Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health case on June 24, 2022 in Miami, Florida. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwards NBC News PollAnd by more than a 2-to-1 margin, voters say abortion access across the country has become too difficult rather than too easy. "A year after the Dobbs decision, though, there is no change in voters saying access is too difficult in their state." In the poll, 61% of all voters say they disapprove of the 5-4 decision, Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, which leaves the legality and conditions of abortion up to individual states. And they're nearly unmoved from Aug. 2022 — two months after the Dobbs decision — when 58% disapproved, while 38% approved.
Persons: Allison, Roe, Wade, there's, Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona, Arroyo, Bill McInturff, McInturff, Dobbs, , they're, Cardona, Yasin Ozturk, it's Organizations: Jackson, Anadolu Agency, Getty, U.S, NBC News, Republican, NBC, Democratic, Hart Research Associates, Health Organization, Black, Washington , D.C Locations: Dobbs, Miami , Florida, Washington ,, West, Midwest
Trump said Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg is backed by the billionaire philanthropist George Soros. To be clear, there is no evidence that George Soros has donated to Bragg. "George Soros and Alvin Bragg have never met in person or spoken by telephone, email, Zoom etc.," Vachon told Insider via email. Neither George Soros nor Democracy PAC contributed to Alvin Bragg's campaign for Manhattan District Attorney." To the far right, Soros represents a member of that cabal, said Lorber, an analyst at Political Research Associates.
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