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But few outsiders are confident that the off-year wins will necessarily lead to Biden’s reelection or broader Democratic success next year. And Ohio Democrats don't expect Biden to compete in the state next year. To Biden aides, the results validated the strategy of sharpening the contrast with “MAGA Republicans” that helped Democrats outperform expectations in 2022. At the Chicago fundraiser, Biden noted that Beshear won reelection while “running on all the programs that were Biden initiatives.”Beshear kept some distance from Biden the day after he won. Jim Messina, who managed Barack Obama’s successful reelection against Republican Mitt Romney in 2012, said the Biden campaign does not need to change its tactics.
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Democrats expect chaos next Congress as they face losing control of the House and possibly the Senate. They say far-right House members will be running the show as Kevin McCarthy struggles to control them. Between McCarthy and McConnell, Democrats view McConnell as the leader with more control over his caucus and they foresee future splits on legislation and priorities. Former President Barack Obama called it a "shellacking" when Democrats lost 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats in 2010. He expects House Democrats to lose about 30 seats, dropping from 222 to 190 and Republicans increasing from 212 to about 240.
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