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☆ Why these three states are the most consistent tipping point in American politics
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +21 min

Trump won the presidency in 2016 by stunning Democrat Hillary Clinton to win all three states by a combined margin of about 80,000 votes. But, as in other states, Democrats have been concerned about the risk of depressed turnout and some gains for Trump among Black voters in Philadelphia. Eight years later, the two states split again, when Roosevelt comfortably won Pennsylvania and Michigan narrowly went to Republican Wendell Willkie. This trio of states has arguably become the most consistent tipping point in American politics. In the nine elections since 1920 when they split their vote, the candidate who carried two of these three states won seven times.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump –, Trump, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Harris, Bob Shrum, Shrum, Tad Devine, “, Biden, PRRI, William Frey, Tim Marema, don’t, Mason, Dixon, Barack Obama, Tony Evers, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, Republican Sen, Ron Johnson, Dane County, Ben Wikler, Pete Giangreco, ”, You’ve, That’s, Gene Ulm, Roe, Wade, Whitmer, Branden Snyder, It’s, Clinton, Dante Chinni, White, ” Chinni, they’ve, They’ve, Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini, Ruffini, “ I’m, ” Ruffini, Geoff Garin, Michael Dukakis, Republican George H.W, Republican George H.W . Bush, James Buchanan, John C, Franklin D, Roosevelt, Herbert Hoover, Republican Wendell Willkie, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Theodore Roosevelt’s, Al Gore, John Kerry, Republican Thomas Dewey, Hubert Humphrey, Garin Organizations: CNN, White House, Democratic, Michigan, Wisconsin, AdImpact, Trump, Center, University of Southern, “, Republicans, Survey, Blacks, of Labor Statistics, Public Religion Research, Whites, GOP, Brookings Metro, for Rural, doesn’t, Keystone State, Republican, Center for Rural, Democrats, Biden, Black, White, Wisconsin , Michigan Democrats, Detroit, Electoral, American Communities Project, …, Democrat, Pennsylvania, Republican Party Locations: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina , Arizona, Nevada, Flint , Michigan, University of Southern California, California , New York, Illinois, Texas, Florida, Ohio, . Michigan, Wisconsin’s, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Detroit, Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington, Madison, Dane, Dane County, Eau Claire, Appleton, La Crosse, Outagamie, Winnebago, Green Bay, Green, Chicago, Scranton, Wilkes, Barre, ” Michigan, “ Michigan, Gaza, Wisconsin , Michigan, United States, “ Pennsylvania, Ulm, Pittsburgh, Butler , Pennsylvania, Republican George H.W ., Fremont, North Carolina, Michigan , Pennsylvania, “

Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden. If you average the national polls since the debate 15 days ago, Trump’s ahead by 3 points. Biden and Trump’s own history should make you think twice about calling wraps on this race as well. Biden was ahead by 9 points in the early July national polls in 2020. Read Harry Enten’s full analysis of the state of the race and the latest polling.

Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Joe Biden’s, Biden’s, Democrat Michael Dukakis, Republican George H.W, Republican George H.W . Bush, Bush, Dukakis, Biden, Trump’s, Read Harry Enten’s Organizations: Getty, NPR, PBS, Marist College, Biden, Trump, Democrat, Republican Locations: Republican George H.W ., Michigan , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, George , Nevada, North Carolina

☆ Donald Trump is favored, but Joe Biden can still win this election
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

If you average the national polls since the debate 15 days ago, Trump’s ahead by 3 points. An NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll out Friday morning even put the race at 50% for Biden to 48% for Trump (a result within the margin of error). Biden was ahead by 9 points in the early July national polls in 2020. I think it’s totally fair to say that Trump is the favorite and that Biden has his work cut out for him. There is also data to suggest that Vice President Kamala Harris would be a stronger Democratic nominee against Trump than Biden.

Persons: Joe Biden’s, Biden’s, Donald Trump, Democrat Michael Dukakis, Republican George H.W, Republican George H.W . Bush, Bush, Dukakis, Biden, Trump’s, Trump, we’ve, Nate Silver, Hillary Clinton, Clinton ”, We’ve, Kamala Harris, Harris Organizations: CNN, NPR, PBS, Marist College, Biden, Trump, Democrat, Republican, Biden’s, Democratic Locations: Republican George H.W ., Michigan , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, George , Nevada, North Carolina

☆ Analysis: Nikki Haley has a plausible path to the Republican nomination
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-03 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

No one behind in the national polls by as much as Haley at this point in the primary calendar has ever ended up winning the nomination. A late October Des Moines Register poll had Trump at 43% to Haley and DeSantis each at 16% in Iowa. They both went on to win Iowa. Haley, however, doesn’t need to win Iowa to secure the GOP nomination. Hart’s overperformance in Iowa was a big reason he went to win the New Hampshire primary in 1984.

Persons: CNN — We’ve, Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Haley, She’s, Ron DeSantis, Trump, DeSantis, It’s, Republican George H.W, Republican George H.W . Bush, Dick Gephardt, Gary Hart, Walter Mondale, Hart’s, Republican Pat Buchanan, Hart, it’s, Chris Christie, Christie, Mondale, Jesse Jackson, John Glenn, George McGovern –, Trump’s Organizations: CNN, Republican, South, Trump, Florida Gov, Des Moines Register, Iowa, GOP, Hawkeye State, Granite State, New, University of New, Winthrop University Locations: South Carolina, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, That’s, Republican George H.W ., Hampshire, Granite, Granite State, University of New Hampshire, New Jersey, Haley’s

[1/3] Former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence waves with his wife Karen as he leaves the stage after announcing he is withdrawing from the presidential campaign, during the Republican Jewish Coalition Annual Leadership Summit in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. October 28, 2023. REUTERS/Steve Marcus Acquire Licensing RightsLAS VEGAS, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence ended his cash-strapped presidential campaign on Saturday, after struggling for months to convince Republican voters he was the best alternative to the man he once served with unswerving loyalty, Donald Trump. "To the American people I say: This is not my time," Pence told attendees at the Republican Jewish Coalition donor conference in Las Vegas. Pence gambled that Republican primary voters would reward him for following the U.S. Constitution rather than obeying Trump, who wanted him to overturn the 2020 election results. In several past elections, former vice presidents who have competed to become the White House nominee have succeeded, including Republican George H.W.

Persons: Mike Pence, Karen, Steve Marcus, Donald Trump, Pence, Trump, Joe Biden's, Republican George H.W, Republican George H.W . Bush, Democrat Al Gore, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Alexandra Ulmer, David Gregorio Our Organizations: U.S, Republican Jewish Coalition, Leadership, REUTERS, LAS VEGAS, Former U.S, Republican, Trump, U.S . Capitol, U.S . Senate, Trump Republican, White House, Democrat, South Carolina, Thomson Locations: Las Vegas , Nevada, U.S, Former, Las Vegas, Iowa, Republican George H.W ., Florida, Ukraine

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