DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

A flurry of remarkably good economic news over the past week could create a daunting mandate for whoever is elected the next U.S. president: Don't mess it up. The whole damn world," President Joe Biden said Tuesday during an event announcing new infrastructure grants at the Port of Baltimore. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are both pitching themselves as the best steward of the future health of the U.S. economy. Trump has pledged universal tariffs on all imports from all countries, a sweeping immigrant deportation program, deepening corporate tax cuts and more. Economists and even some of Trump's own allies note that his proposed universal tariffs, mass deportations and tax cuts could, at least temporarily, send major shockwaves through the economy, triggering potential market crashes.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Harris, Trump, Trump's, Justin Wolfers, Barack Obama, Biden, Wolfers, you've Organizations: Macomb Community College, Democratic, U.S, Port, Trump, University of Michigan, Republican Locations: Warren , Michigan, U.S, Atlanta , Georgia, Port of Baltimore, America

☆ Why the October jobs report on Friday could sink the market's soft-landing narrative
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

September's payrolls report exceeded expectations, but economists see weak gains for October. Even with lower expectations, a poor print could reset the market's narrative around a soft landing. AdvertisementThe narrative around ongoing labor-market strength revived with September's payrolls report, which topped economists' expectations by over 100,000 jobs. "The October jobs report will likely show a severe but short-lived hit from hurricanes Helene and Milton," Adams said. Another sign that September's jobs numbers may have been overstated is that other employment indicators haven't started to trend upwards.

Persons: September's, —, Hurricanes Milton, Helene, Tom Essaye, Ben McMillan, McMillan, Goldman Sachs, there's, Goldman, Claudia Sahm, Michael Cuggino, Bill Adams, Milton, Adams, Neil Dutta, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Dutta Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Hurricanes, Boeing, IDX Advisors, of Labor Statistics, Comerica, Funds, Federal Reserve, Macro, BLS, PMI

☆ The US freight recession is showing early signs of recovery
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

JB Hunt beat earnings estimates for the first time in two years. AdvertisementTrucking company JB Hunt earned the approval of stock investors on Wednesday after a stronger-than-expected earnings report showed demand is coming back. AdvertisementThese struggles have translated into weak market performance for JB Hunt and other freight carriers. AdvertisementGoing beyond JB Hunt, there has been other data suggesting better prospects ahead. DAT Freight & Analytics' trucking volume index rose year-over-year for all three different categories of freight equipment for the 12 months ended in September.

Persons: JB Hunt, —, It's, Shelley Simpson, Nicholas Hobbs, Ken Adamo Organizations: Service, JB, DAT, Analytics

☆ UBS sees S&P 500 soaring to 6,400 by the end of 2025
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Strategist Jonathan Golub raised his 2025 S & P 500 target to 6,400 from 6,000 in a note to clients released Tuesday. "UBS economists forecast 3.7% nominal GDP in 2025 (1.6% real), roughly in line with long-term averages," he said. Golub also noted that a "sharp decline in Fed Funds will likely increase profit margins by 20 [basis points] via lower interest expense." The Fed lowered its benchmark fed funds rates a half a point, to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%, in September. Bottom line: Stocks could consolidate to end 2024 before scaling new heights in the new year, based on UBS' outlook.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, Stocks, Golub doesn't, Goldman Sachs Organizations: UBS, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Monday's

☆ A 32-year market vet shares 5 labor market indicators showing the US economy is barreling toward a recession — putting an overvalued stock market at risk for major declines
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This is while S&P 500 valuations remain high, putting the market at risk for big declines. In a September note, Wolfenbarger shared the below chart from Bank of America showing 19 of 20 valuation measures they monitor as being overvalued. That means the S&P 500 would have to fall 60% just to return to the historical average. But it's still unclear how accurate the September jobs data is. Future revisions and further lackluster jobs data could resume investor fears that a downturn is a serious potential threat.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, —, Merrill Lynch, St, Louis Fed, Wolfenbarger, September's, it's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, JPMorgan, Conference Board, Global, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, Nvidia Locations: St

☆ Earnings growth should continue to drive the S&P 500, says UBS
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 touched a record in early trading and was headed for its fifth-straight winning week. Excluding the energy sector, S & P 500 profit growth should be 8-10%," the bank wrote in a note to clients. "Many of these companies are benefiting from continued strong growth in AI investment spending and monetization," UBS added. "In aggregate, the Magnificent 7 will account for 21% of S & P 500 profits in 2024 and closer to 25% in 2025." The bank sees the S & P 500 climbing to 5,900 by year end and 6,200 by June 2025.

Persons: Banks, Wells Organizations: UBS, Investors, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve Locations: Wells Fargo, BlackRock

☆ 2 big reasons gold prices are set to surge 9% by early next year, according to Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices will hit $2,900 per troy ounce by early 2025. AdvertisementThe price of gold is set to extend its record-setting rally to new highs by early 2025, according to a note from Goldman Sachs. Goldman boosted its gold price target to $2,900 per troy ounce from $2,700, representing upside of about 9% from current levels. AdvertisementSuch gains would come after gold prices have already rallied 29% year-to-date. Goldman highlighted that the central banks of emerging market countries like China are behind the structural advance of gold prices since 2022.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, —, Lina Thomas, Thomas Organizations: Service, London OTC Locations: China, London, Israel, Iran, East

☆ How stocks can roar by 10% into year-end, Citi US equity-trading head says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market could jump as much as 10% by the year-end, Citi's stock-trading strategy head said. He said the economy only needs to avoid a recession, which will ultimately depend on the labor market. And that is now a plausible scenario," the firm's head of US equity-trading strategy told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday. If this is achieved, stocks can surge another 5% to 10% by the end of this year, Kaiser said. But though the Fed emphasized that it was not forecasting a looming downturn during its latest policy meeting, it all hinges on incoming labor market data, he noted.

Persons: Stuart Kaiser, —, Citi's Stuart Kaiser, Kaiser, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve

7:03 a.m.: Bernstein cuts price target on Nike amid innovation critiques Bernstein sees slightly less room for Nike to rebound. — Alex Harring 6:25 a.m.: Jefferies recommends buying NextEra Energy Partners despite buyout concern Jefferies came out of the gates optimistic on NextEra Energy Partners . Analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith initiated coverage of the Florida-based renewable energy stock at a buy rating. — Alex Harring 5:54 a.m.: AI helps HubSpot compete, BofA says Bank of America is keeping an eye of HubSpot's artificial intelligence work. — Alex Harring 5:46 a.m.: JPMorgan says to sell Five Below JPMorgan turned bearish on Five Below , citing challenges that are hard to surmount for the value-focused retailer during a tough year.

Persons: Piper Sandler, Bernstein, Aneesha Sherman, Sherman, Alex Harring, BTIG, it's, Jake Fuller, Fuller, DoorDash, — Alex Harring, Jefferies, Julien Dumoulin, Smith, Hertz, Dan Levy, Levy, Avis, HubSpot, BofA, BofA's Brad Sills, Sills, monetization, Matthew Boss, Boss, Abbott, Adam Maeder, necrotizing, ABT, Maeder, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Laboratories, JPMorgan, Nike, Dow Jones, Jefferies, NextEra Energy Partners, Barclays, Hertz, Bank of America, LSEG, Abbott Laboratories Locations: Wednesday's, Florida, Thursday's premarket

☆ Wall Street loves the big rate cut... it just needed a day to think about it
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed cut rates by a half percentage point on Wednesday, surprising some traders who anticipated a quarter-point reduction. S & P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures were also up sharply, boosted by gains in tech. Data shows gains ahead And the data shows if a recession is avoided, Fed rate cuts lead to strong gains for stocks. The rate cut also took place with the S & P 500 trading around record levels. "Over the past 40 years, the Fed has cut rates 12 times with the S & P 500 within 1% of an all-time highs.

Persons: Canaccord Genuity, Tom Essaye, BTIG, Jake Fuller Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Dow, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, JPMorgan

☆ Oil stares at a bleak future as China's economy sputters. The good news: A market 'bust' is unlikely
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"We estimate that Brent could fall to roughly $50 per barrel in a moderate [U.S.] recession … We have a fairly benign view on the global economy," Struyven said during the conference. en Luckock global head of oil at Trafigura"Things are slowing down. Trading Giant Trafigura raised concerns about China's weak demand, and the global oil consumption tied to it. China's slowdown has spurred some to scour for alternative oil demand drivers, with a few eyeing India as a potential candidate. India is the third largest consumer of oil at around 5 million barrels of oil per day, 5% of the world's oil consumption.

Persons: Andrey Rudakov, Goldman Sachs, Brent, Struyven, Torbjörn Törnqvist, Ben Luckock, we're, Bing Chen, Gunvor Organizations: Tuapsinsky, Rosneft Oil, Bloomberg, Getty, Global Commodities, Daan, CNBC, Global, Brent, U.S, West Texas Locations: Tuapse, Russia, China, U.S, Ukraine, India, Japan, Germany, Hong

☆ Stock market today: Indexes edge up ahead of major Fed interest rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

US indexes edged higher as investors waited for a likely interest rate cut from the Fed. AdvertisementUS stocks rose on Wednesday as traders readied for what's likely to be the Federal Reserves's first rate cut in four years. "Though consensus is leaning toward a 50 basis point move, we look for the Fed to cut by 25 basis points today. AdvertisementFollowing the interest rate decision, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will deliver prepared remarks during a press conference. "While the market has usually bounced immediately following the 2 PM rate decision, the sell-off usually starts at or near the end of Powell's post-FOMC press conference."

Persons: Jerome Powell's, —, John Lynch, José Torres, Jerome Powell, Powell, shouldn't Organizations: Fed, Traders, Service, Federal, Comerica Wealth Management, Interactive, Deutsche Bank, Investment

☆ What the stock market does historically after the first Fed rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 touched a record high on Tuesday , bringing its year-to-date gain to more than 18%. The S & P 500 averaged a 5.5% gain in the first three months after an initial cut, 10.6% six months later and 11.3% one year out. On average, the broader index jumped 10.2% three months later, 14.7% six months out and 18.6% one year afterward. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, ytd Other investment banks have noted this discrepancy, with Bank of America Securities also highlighting the pattern in a recent note. The worst-performing sectors 12 months after a rate cut were materials, utilities and consumer discretionary.

Persons: Canaccord, Ohsung Kwon, Canaccord Genuity, — CNBC's Gabriel Cortes Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America Securities

☆ Gold's rally to records shows no signs of slowing
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices just won't stop rising. Year to date, gold is up nearly 26% — outpacing the S & P 500's 18% gain. Since ETF holdings only increase gradually as the Fed cuts, this upside is not yet fully priced in." Investors seeking exposure to gold can obtain it through exchange traded funds, such as the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) . The fund, which tracks gold prices and charges 0.4% in fees, is up nearly 25% in 2024.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lina Thomas, Thomas, Christopher Danely Organizations: Reserve, Goldman, Miners, Gold Miners, Citigroup, Micron Technology

☆ Fed to cut rates by a quarter point with a soft landing expected, according to CNBC Fed Survey
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The survey shows 84% of the 27 respondents, including economists, fund managers and strategists, see the Fed cutting by a quarter percentage point, with 16% seeing a half-point decrease. That compares with 65% probability of a half-point cut now priced into fed futures markets. "That forecast is more in line with a hard landing than a soft landing." (One basis point equals 0.01%)Soft landing expectedThe major difference could be that survey respondents appear less worried about the economy overall than futures markets, and more convinced the Fed has time to enact gradual rate cuts. Seventy-four percent said the September rate cut comes in time to preserve a soft landing, with just 15% saying it's too late.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Andrew Harnik, John Donaldson, Barry Knapp, it's, Michael Englund, Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC Fed Survey, CNBC, Haverford Trust Co, Ironsides, Fed

☆ Get ready for stocks to embark on a weekslong rally after the Fed cuts rates, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are set to climb higher for at least the next few weeks, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Lee pointed to the Fed's policy meeting, with markets expecting a rate cut on Wednesday. A Fed rate cut will be bullish for stocks, regardless of its size, he told CNBC. AdvertisementWall Street has been anticipating rate cuts for months, especially as the economy has shown some weakness stemming from tighter financial conditions. However, stocks should move higher regardless of the size of the rate cut, Lee said, so long as central bankers assure markets that more cuts are coming.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, —, Powell Organizations: CNBC, Service, Bureau of Labor, New York Fed

☆ Here are the stocks that win when the Fed cuts rates with no recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Fed funds futures have fully priced in that the central bank will lower interest rates, according to CME's FedWatch tool . Many now expect the Fed will achieve the coveted "soft landing" outcome, which means inflation is curbed without tipping the economy into a recession. Rate cuts without a recession has historically been a positive mixture for stocks. Given this backdrop, CNBC Pro screened for names that have performed nicely in past periods where the Fed pulled rates lower without the U.S. economy tipping into a recession. To find these companies, CNBC Pro searched the S & P 500 for members with the highest median gain one year after the Fed has cut rates without an official recession.

Persons: Genuity, LSEG, Paul Lejuez, WMT Organizations: Reserve, CNBC Pro, Nike, Dow Jones Industrial, Intel, Boeing, Walmart, Dow, Citi, Wall Locations: U.S, Rochester , New York

☆ The US will enter a mild recession as the economy deflates after its boost from unproductive stimulus cash, former Commerce Secretary says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe US is moving toward a recession, as the economy is feeling the comedown after trillions of "unproductive" cash was pumped in during the pandemic, according to former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. AdvertisementBut most of the stimulus cash wasn't deployed productively, Ross said, pointing to Americans who "immediately spent" their checks in a wild shopping spree. Related storiesStrength in the labor market was also partly distorted by stimulus cash, he suggested. Hiring has steadily slowed over the past year, with the unemployment rate triggering one long-running recession indicator with a perfect track record. Most economists still agree that the economy remains on solid footing, given the rapid pace of growth and historically low unemployment rate.

Persons: —, Wilbur Ross, Trump, Ross Organizations: Service, Commerce, Bloomberg, Business, Conference, Investor

☆ To pop or not to pop: the smart way to invest in AI without worrying about the bubble
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

It's also common to draw parallels between the dot-com bubble and today's hype, leading investors to wonder if there's an AI bubble that's about to pop, too. Goldman Sachs' big AI headline of the month is "To buy, or not to buy, that is the question." The note from September 5, led by Peter Oppenheimer, suggests the answer is "to buy" but also to diversify. And the third is the application providers, which are the companies creating services for end users to harness AI. It comes from machine learning or big data workloads that various companies and governments use, Belton noted.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs, Peter Oppenheimer, John Belton, doesn't, Brian Colello, Nancy Tengler, that's, it's, Tengler, Wall, Larry Ellison, Colello, Belton Organizations: Service, Business, Gabelli Funds, Morningstar Equity Research, Investments, Nvidia, Companies, Microsoft, Intel, Oracle, IBM, Broadcom, AMD, Cadence Design Systems, Google, AWS, Eaton Corporation Locations: GenAI, Belton

☆ Ron Insana: Even as inflation cools, markets show that risks to the soft landing are rising
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

What people say about growth and inflation doesn't matter much anymore – even as the latest consumer inflation report shows a cooling trend. That means a notable drop in both wholesale and consumer prices is coming down the road. Now, it appears that the U.S. is slipping behind the rest of the world, turning its policy actions toward growth risks rather than inflation risks. It's also important to remind Fed policymakers that there is ample evidence of slower consumer spending among middle-to-lower income families. Further, recent revisions to job growth in the 12-month period through March 2024 confirm that a soft landing is at risk.

Persons: Stocks, that's, We're, It's, Ron Insana Organizations: Treasury, U.S ., CNBC Locations: China, U.S

☆ U.S. job market slows, but it's not yet a 'three-alarm fire,' economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-06 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The unemployment rate also fell slightly, to 4.2% from 4.3% in July. For example, average job growth was 116,000 over the past three months; the three-month average was 211,000 a year ago. The unemployment rate has also steadily risen, from 3.4% as recently as April 2023. In other words, many more Americans entered the job market and looked for work; they're counted as unemployed until they find a job. That said, the job hunt has become more challenging for job seekers than in the recent past, according to Bunker.

Persons: Michael M, Ernie Tedeschi, Biden, hasn't, Julia Pollak, Bunker, " Tedeschi, Tedeschi Organizations: FedEx, Broadway, Santiago, Getty, of Labor Statistics, Yale Budget Lab, White House Council, Economic Advisers, Labor Department, ZipRecruiter, Workers, ., Federal Reserve Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Bears are eager to front-run a recession that has not materialized
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Let's front-run the September-October weakness Another chunk of investors is equally pessimistic, but for a different reason. 2) Corporate buybacks, which have been exceptionally strong this year — likely a record for the S & P 500 — will likely slow soon because corporations will be entering blackout periods for several weeks heading into earnings. The S & P 500 is less than 3% from its historic high. The last time the S & P 500 had a 10% correction was July 31 to Oct. 27, 2023 (10.3% drop). That's what happens with high valuations and a slower economy.

Persons: payrolls, It's, Goldman Sachs, nonfarm payrolls Organizations: Traders, Citi, Nvidia Locations: factoids

☆ Buy these stocks with solid earnings power during the volatility, Wolfe Research says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Second quarter earnings season has delivered robust profits despite the recessionary concerns that have roiled the market in recent days. Now, Wolfe Research recommends a handful of stocks that are positioned to outperform in the back half of the year. Here are some of the stocks that made the Wolfe Research screen: Apple was the only "Magnificent Seven" stock that made Wolfe's screen. Zoetis also appeared on the Wolfe screen. Duke Energy , which also reported quarterly results that beat expectations last week, also made Wolfe's screen.

Persons: Chris Senyek, Wolfe, Apple, Luca Maestri, Kellanova, FactSet, Mars, Snickers –, CNBC's David Faber, Hershey, althought, Zoetis Organizations: Wolfe Research, Apple, LSEG, Pfizer Animal Health, Duke Energy Locations: Chicago, New Jersey, North Carolina

☆ Is Netflix recession resistant? JPMorgan thinks so
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Hakyung Kim | In Hakyungkim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Netflix is one of the few bright spots among media names in the case of an economic slowdown, according to JPMorgan. Netflix shares are trading just 2% lower following its second-quarter earnings announcement on July 18, whereas the S & P 500 is currently down 4% over the same period. In the second quarter, Netflix reported a 34% yearly increase in its ad-supported memberships, and total memberships topped analysts' forecasts. Anmuth added, "We generally view subscription services like NFLX (and SPOT ) as being more resilient during periods of macro pressure." A potential weak spot for Netflix may be a softening digital ad market.

Persons: Doug Anmuth, NFLX, Anmuth, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Netflix, JPMorgan, Big Tech, Spotify

☆ 2 trades to make now amid 6 economic pitfalls ahead, according to a Bank of America chief strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Japan's low interest rates made its currency a cheap option to borrow and fund other trades in the US and worldwide. So there's $6 trillion sitting in money market funds that is being held hostage to politics, he added. Advertisement"We've had these episodes of market volatility in the past, and the only path was in and out of equities," Quinlan said. Remember, as interest rates come down, you lock in two-, five-, or 10-year yields. Those money market funds are going to come down as the interest rates come down."

Persons: —, Joe Quinlan, Quinlan, it's, There's, You've, capex, Donald Trump, We've, Russell, We're Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Dow, Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, Business, Reserve, Big Tech, Labor Locations: China, Israel, Iran

Search resuls for: "Recessionary"

25 mentions found