An inverted yield curve, in which the nearer-duration yield is higher, has signaled most recessions since World War II.
However, a normalization of the curve does not necessary signal good times ahead.
In fact, the curve usually does revert before a recession hits, meaning the U.S. could still be in for some rough economic waters ahead.
Job openings had exceeded labor supply by more than 2 to 1 at one point, aggravating inflation that had been at its highest level in more than 40 years.
That part of the curve is still steeply inverted, with the difference now at more than 1.3 percentage points.
Persons:
Raphael Bostic, Quincy Krosby
Organizations:
CME Group, Atlanta Fed, LPL, Labor Department, Atlanta Federal Reserve
Locations:
Chicago, U.S