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☆ Marxist lawmaker leads the vote count in Sri Lanka's presidential election
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-22 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +4 min

This is Sri Lanka’s first election since the Indian Ocean nation’s economy buckled in 2022 under a severe foreign exchange shortage, leaving it unable to pay for imports of essentials including fuel, medicine and cooking gas. Marxist-leaning Anura Kumara Dissanayake leaves a polling station after casting his vote in Sri Lanka's capital Colombo on Saturday. Grinding poverty for millionsButtressed by the IMF deal, Sri Lanka’s economy has posted a tentative recovery. The younger Premadasa polled 42% of the votes in 2019 to finish second, behind Rajapaksa, in the last presidential election. Support from farming communities in north and central Sri Lanka helped him close the gap on Dissanayake as counting progressed.

Persons: Kumara Dissanayake, Sajith Premadasa, Sri Lanka’s, Ranil Wickremesinghe, Dissanayake, Premadasa, Lanka’s, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, ”, Pradeep Peiris, ” Dissanayake, Eranga, Ranasinghe Premadasa, Rajapaksa Organizations: Sri, Sunday, University of Colombo, Monetary Fund, Marxist, IMF, National People’s Power, JVP Locations: “, Sri Lanka's, Colombo, Sri, Sri Lankans, Premadasa’s, Sri Lanka

Yet labour markets are softening, the euro zone faces recession and China's property sector is in crisis. Here's what some closely-watched market indicators say about global recession risks:1/ AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM? Britain's economy avoided the start of a recession in the third quarter but still failed to grow. Economists broadly expect the global economy to slow next year but avoid a recession. If supply shocks resulting from the Israel-Hamas war become severe enough to push Brent crude to $150, a level it has never breached, a "mild and fleeting" global recession could result, Oxford Economics reckons.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Guy Miller, COVID, Zurich Insurance's Miller, Torsten Slok, Austria's, David Katimbo, We've, Brent, Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Zurich Insurance, Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal Reserve, ECB, Apollo Global Management, P, Sweden's SBB, HK, Bank of England, Business insolvencies, EdenTree Investment Management, Oxford Economics reckons, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, China, Zurich, England, Wales, Europe, Israel

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - After making hay when a summer bond rout propelled the U.S. dollar to 10-month highs, hedge funds are now pondering what lies ahead for the greenback. Five funds shared their views on the fate of the dollar. This does not represent recommendations or trading positions, which some hedge funds cannot reveal for regulatory reasons. He expects the U.S. economy to slow sharply which, alongside falling inflation, will likely hurt the dollar against some emerging market currencies. The Brazilian real, trading at 4.8908 per dollar , is up roughly 8% so far this year against the dollar.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jonathan Fader, Fader, Doug Greenig, Florin Court's, Greenig, Tara Hariharan, Hariharan, NWI, Carlos Calabresi, Michael Sager, Sager, Nell Mackenzie, Carolina Mandl, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, greenback, Swiss, Reuters, FLORIN, China Foreign Exchange Trade, Long, Garde, CIBC, Thomson Locations: U.S, American, Brazil, Colombia, Hungary, Poland, China, Asia, Brazilian, London, Carolina, New York

For much of this year central banks have successfully pushed back against rate cut bets. "I believe the Fed will act rationally and begin to cut rates by the end of next year, but we can't rule out the scenario that the Fed is not going to cut rates and just let the ramifications of recession do what they do." Reuters GraphicsSHIFT NEARINGMarkets now fully price in a 25 basis point U.S. rate cut in May, having seen a 65% chance earlier this week. "There are now committee members in all three (banks) willing to talk about rate cuts next year," said Chris Jeffery, head of rates and inflation strategy at LGIM. "The ECB should begin to ease policy as soon as April 2024, with risks that a more sinister downturn in growth could warrant a rate cut as soon as March," he said.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, ramping, It's, Nate Thooft, Goldman, Christopher Waller, Huw Pill, Yannis Stournaras, Chris Jeffery, we'd, Dario Perkins, Simon Harvey, Yoruk, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Roberston, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebasvili, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Dhara Ranasinghe, Catherine Evans Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Manulife Investment Management, Treasury, Graphics, Bank of England, Deutsche, Lombard, Traders, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: Washington, United States, Europe, Goldman Sachs, Greek, Amsterdam, London

☆ Goldilocks meets Santa as global stocks power to best month in three years
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

MSCI's world stock index (.MIWO00000PUS) is set to close the month up around 9%, its best performance since November 2020, when markets cheered the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines. Global bond prices have soared, with an ICE BofA index of global investment-grade bonds in major markets set to return 3.4% in November, the best month on record going back to 1997. Global growth stocks in high-tech sectors are up 11% (.dMIWO0000GNUS) while value stocks, which are mainly in cyclical industries and offer high dividends, have gained 6.5% (.dMIWO0000VNUS). And a cloudier outlook for stocks suggests a divergence could open up between again between stocks and bonds. The broader global index is set to return 1.6% for the year.

Persons: Joshua Roberts, That's, bode, Altaf Kassam, Wall, We've, Guy Miller, Joost Van Leenders, Van Lanschot Kempen, Van Leenders, Kassam, Naomi Rovnick, Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Christina Fincher Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, State Street Global Advisors, Traders, Fed, Insurance Group, Equity, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, COVID, U.S

Japanese national flag is hoisted atop the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. If the BOJ pulls interest rates above zero for the first time in years, banks' lending margins could rise. Steve Donzé, deputy head of investment at Pictet Asset Management in Tokyo, said he had also been buying Japanese bank stocks. BOND PAINJapanese inflation means bond investors could suffer. But investors are cautious about this so-called yield curve control policy ending as the BOJ is forced to tighten monetary policy.

Persons: Issei Kato, Shigeka Koda, Koda, Steve Donzé, Junichi Inoue, Janus Henderson, James Halse, Warren Buffett, David Hogarty, Jon Day, Grégoire Pesques, Amundi, Pictet's Donzé, Naomi Rovnick, Kevin Buckland, Dhara Ranasinghe, Jane Merriman Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, LONDON, Asia Investment, Kosaido Holdings, Kyushu Financial, Pictet, Management, Platinum Asset Management, Global, Bank of America, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Dublin, Newton Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, Singapore, Sydney, United States, Europe, London

☆ Take Five: Black Friday is (almost) here
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REUTERS/Kamil Krzaczynski/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 17 (Reuters) - U.S. retailers are gearing up for Black Friday, marking the start of the shopping season that follows the Thanksgiving holiday, while business activity data should gauge the temperature elsewhere. 1/ BARGAIN HUNTINGThe crucial holiday shopping season kicks off with Black Friday on Nov. 24 at a time when investors are questioning whether the consumer-driven U.S. economy can remain resilient. This year's Black Friday comes as Americans grapple with soaring interest rates and inflation that, while easing, remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Already, data for October showed U.S. retail sales fell, pointing to slowing demand, although the decline was less than expected. As long as that's not the case, pressure is on the Kishida cabinet since a weak yen is unpopular politically.

Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Karin Strohecker, There's, PIMCO, Rishi Sunak, David Cameron, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, bode, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Pragmatist Massa, Prinz Magtulis, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Pasit, Mark Potter Organizations: Walmart, REUTERS, Black, Nvidia, Insider Intelligence, European Commission, PMI, Fed, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, DOWNING STREET, Labour, gilts, Natwest, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Peronist, Thomson Locations: Chicago , Illinois, U.S, Argentina, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, Britain, Japan, Egypt, Taiwan, South Africa, India

☆ Systematic hedge funds pummeled in post-U.S. CPI stocks rally - Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Stockpicking hedge funds that actively chose bets managed to gain 0.6% on Tuesday and are now poised for their best month since January this year, said Goldman Sachs. These hedge funds posted a positive 2.7% performance for the month to November 14 and up were up 5.8% for the year so far, the Goldman note added. Quantitative multi-strategy hedge funds have been the best performing strategies so far this year, with an 11.05% positive performance to end-October, said BNP Paribas. Hedge funds which trade on market volatility bear the lowest average of a 2.46% gain for the year to the end of October, said the French bank.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, Reuters, Nasdaq, BNP, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Hedge funds help fill bond-buying void left by central banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Weinberg said hedge funds accounted for roughly 40% of turnover in German securities. Other debt agency officials said regulation following the global financial crisis had prompted banks to be more cautious about investing in bonds, which also left hedge funds with greater scope to buy into fixed income markets. UK debt management office head Robert Stheeman said hedge funds had moved into the space left by banks in ensuring liquidity - in other words, the ease of buying and selling an asset. Mercedes Abascal Rojo, head of funding and debt management at the Spanish Treasury, urged the need for caution, however. So far, market functioning has generally been smooth, the debt agency heads said.

Persons: Heiko Becker, Thomas Weinberg, Weinberg, Robert Stheeman, Mercedes Abascal Rojo, Spain's Abascal, Dhara, Barbara Lewis Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Bank of England, Association for Financial Markets, Spanish Treasury, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Ukraine, Europe's, Brussels, Central, Spain

[1/2] Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. ET (1500 GMT) with a 152 strike price, analysts said. The dollar shot to 151.92 yen at 9:42 a.m. (1442 GMT), its highest level since October 2022, and then tumbled to 151.20 minutes after the strike price. Earlier, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government would keep monitoring the currency market and respond appropriately. The yen is down almost 14% against the dollar this year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Shunichi Suzuki, Marc Chandler, It's, Chandler, Jerome Powell, Geoff Yu, Sterling, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, David Cameron, Suella Braverman, Dhara Ranasinghe, Brigid Riley, Emelia Sithole, Sharon Singleton, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Japanese Finance, Bank of Japan, Bannockburn Global, United Auto Workers, Federal Reserve, BNY Mellon, British, Thomson Locations: Bannockburn, New York, U.S, Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO

☆ Dollar rallies to fresh one-year high against a beaten-down yen
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | Thomson Reuters | Senior Correspondent On The London Markets Team Covering European Sovereign Bond Markets | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government would keep monitoring the currency market and respond appropriately. The comments had little immediate impact on the yen, which is down almost 14% against the dollar this year. "Given the move in U.S. Treasuries of course the yen is not rallying yet," he said, referring to U.S. bond yields. The dollar on Monday rose to 151.88 yen , its highest level since October 2022.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Shunichi Suzuki, Sterling, inched, Rishi Sunak, Kit Juckes, Jerome Powell, Geoff Yu, Sunak, David Cameron, Suella Braverman, Dhara Ranasinghe, Brigid Riley, Emelia Sithole, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal, Finance, British, Generale, BNY Mellon, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, Tokyo, TOKYO

☆ Take Five: That rate cut trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Markets are keen to trade rate cuts and big central banks are pushing back, shining a new light on upcoming data in that tug of war. Traders, anticipating roughly three quarter-point Fed rate cuts next year, will now turn their attention to Tuesday's inflation data to confirm their view on the outlook. A sharper cooling could fan the peak rate talk, fuelled by October's employment report, which pointed to an easing in labor markets. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ ONCE BITTENThe robust dollar suddenly appears vulnerable to the push and pull in the market's Fed rate cut bets. The data could also help justify, or challenge, recent remarks from BoE chief economist Huw Pill that mid-2024 could be the time for rate cuts.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Danilo Masoni, Alun John, Dhara, Jerome Powell, Ping, Powell, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, BoE, Huw Pill, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Riddhima Talwani, Prinz Magtulis, Jayaram, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Traders, Reuters, Beijing, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, New York, Tokyo, Milan, London, Washington, September's, Germany, Europe, ITALY, Italy

Bets on oil prices moving up from here are at their highest level since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, CME options market volatility data shows. Average daily volumes in energy options of the CME exchange overall are the highest since an all-time record in 2018. "The aftermath of the attacks and rising Middle East tensions did not impact oil prices as many investors expected, including ourselves," Unigestion multi-asset portfolio manager Sandrine Perret said. Reuters Graphics3/ DEFENCE STOCKSA gauge of defence stocks compiled by index provider MarketVector (.MVDEF) is 8% higher in the four weeks since the conflict began. It's also near eight-year highs versus the euro and therefore another asset class attracting questions about how it would perform if Middle East tensions are resolved.

Persons: Abdel Hadi Ramahi, Israel, Sandrine Perret, Derek Sammann, Gold, Jeff, Mikhail Zverev, Ron Temple, It's, Francesca Fornasari, Fornasari, Elisa Belgacem, Brent, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Dhara Ranasinghe, David Evans Organizations: United Arab Emirates, REUTERS, U.S White, Aegon, Reuters, Global, Defence, Lazard Asset Management, Swiss, Insight Investment, Generali Investments, Thomson Locations: Dubai, United Arab, Hamas, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, Jordan, Egypt, China, Taiwan, Europe

ICBC's U.S. unit told market participants on Friday it was hoping to finish the cyber review over the weekend, but the sources said they expected it would spill into next week. The cyberattack sent ripples through the U.S. Treasuries market, where ICBC acts as a broker for hedge funds and other market participants, helping them trade in the securities. The Chinese parent then injected capital into the U.S. unit, allowing it to settle the trades and pay back BNY Mellon, the sources said. They also told market participants about the capital injection but did not disclose the amount or the reason for it, the sources said. SIFMA, the trade group, organized calls for market participants with updates, the sources said.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, BNY Mellon, ransomware, ICBC, SIFMA, Janet Yellen, Lifeng, Scott Skyrm, Jack McIntyre, Harry Robertson, James Pearson, Naomi Rovinick, Yoruk, Davide Barbuscia, Chris Prentice, Mike Derby, Carolina Mandl, Laura Matthews, Paritosh, Zeba, Megan Davies, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alexander Smith, Richard Chang, Anna Driver Organizations: Asset Management, Fair for Trade, Services, REUTERS, Commercial Bank of China, U.S ., ICBC Financial Services, Securities Industry, Financial Markets Association, ICBC, Treasury, China, U.S, New York Federal Reserve, Securities, Depository Trust, Clearing Corp, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, ICBC's U.S, U.S, San Francisco, Treasuries, Hong Kong, Shanghai, London, Amsterdam, Carolina, New York

[1/2] People walk past a booth of ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management Co at the 2020 China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS), in Beijing, China September 5, 2020. China's foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said that business remained normal at ICBC head office, other branches and subsidiaries across the globe. Some market participants said trades going through ICBC were not settled due to the incident and that market liquidity had been affected. ICBC said it had successfully cleared Treasury trades executed on Wednesday and repurchase agreements (repo) financing trades done on Thursday. While market sources said on Thursday the impact of the ICBC hack appeared limited, the attack underlined how vulnerable systems at large organizations continue to be.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, ICBC, Wang Wenbin, Wang, Jerome Powell, Lockbit, Harry Robertson, Yoruk, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alexander Smith Organizations: Asset Management, Fair for Trade, Services, REUTERS, Industrial, Commercial Bank of China, Global, ICBC's, Authority, Traders, U.S . Treasury, Federal, Treasury, Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Security Agency, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, China's, ICBC's U.S, Europe, Hong Kong, Shanghai, London, Amsterdam

Logos of Swiss banks Credit Suisse and UBS are seen before a news conference in Zurich Switzerland, August 30, 2023. The state-engineered merger led to a wipeout of $17 billion of Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds. "Their structure is very new and shows they listened to investors who were angry about the permanent write-down feature," said Jerome Legras, head of research at Axiom Alternative Investments, who held Credit Suisse AT1 bonds before the March banking crisis. The Credit Suisse AT1s wipeout spurned a number of claims against Switzerland's financial regulator FINMA, which inverted the long-established seniority of bondholders over shareholders over the assets of a company in distress. That dented sentiment in the key market for bank bonds and prompted regulators in Europe and Asia to reassure investors.

Persons: Denis Balibouse, Jerome Legras, Joost Beaumont, March's writedown, Noele Illien, Dhara Ranasinghe, Elaine Hardcastle, Alexander Smith Organizations: Credit Suisse, UBS, REUTERS, CS, AT1s, ZURICH, P Global, Suisse, ABN AMRO, Singapore, Thomson Locations: Zurich Switzerland, Swiss, Switzerland's, Europe, Asia

☆ Court stays sacking of Sri Lanka board
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Ranasinghe had replaced the board with an interim committee on Monday after a disappointing World Cup campaign, amid protests calling for the resignation of Sri Lanka Cricket (SLC) officials. The matter was also discussed in Sri Lanka's parliament on Tuesday. Sri Lanka's team wind up their World Cup campaign against New Zealand on Thursday. Sri Lanka are currently ninth with four points -- the same as England, Bangladesh and the Netherlands. The only control that we have in this tournament is the game tomorrow," Nawaz told reporters.

Persons: Arun Jaitley, Sri Lanka's Dilshan Madushanka, Bangladesh's Tanzid Hasan, Pathum Nissanka, Anushree, Roshan Ranasinghe's, Ranasinghe, Shammi Silva, Sri, Sri Lanka's, Naveed Nawaz, Nawaz, Chiranjit Ojha, Rohith Nair, Peter Rutherford Organizations: Cricket, ICC Cricket, Arun, Sri, Pathum Nissanka REUTERS, Sri Lanka Cricket, New Zealand, Christian, Thomson Locations: Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, New Delhi, India, Sri Lanka's, Pakistan, England, Netherlands, Bengaluru

That has left Italian equities overall more cheaply valued than even battered UK shares (.dMIGB00000PUS), which are trading at a 33% discount to global peers. Goldman Sachs estimates that each 10 bps rise in sovereign spreads takes around 2% off Italian bank shares and 1.5% off the FTSE MIB index. Conflict in Ukraine and in the Middle East meanwhile threaten to spark a fresh surge in energy prices and weaken growth. UniCredit shares are up almost 80% this year and among the best performing euro zone banking shares. Fidelity International portfolio manager Alberto Chiandetti, said he was chasing opportunities in battered industrials and consumer sectors in the FTSE Italia Star index.

Persons: Claudia Greco, Chris Hiorns, Fitch, Goldman Sachs, Giuseppe Sersale, Andrea Scauri, Lemanik, Scauri, LSEG, Alberto Chiandetti, Joice Alves, Danilo Masoni, Dhara Ranasinghe, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, LONDON, Barclays, European Commission, FTSE Italia Star, Anthilia, Banco, Fidelity International, FTSE, Thomson Locations: Milan, Silicon, Italy, Companies Italy, MILAN, Germany, Ukraine, iShares, Europe, dei, London

☆ Hedge funds pile into US stock rally at fastest pace in 2 years - Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A screen displays the trading information for Goldman Sachs on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 17, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Hedge funds last week "aggressively" bought U.S. stocks at the fastest pace in two years, said a Goldman Sachs note (GS.N), with traders jumping into a stock rally fuelled by hopes that the U.S. central bank rate pause might stick. Many got tangled up trying to flee crowded trades which became losing positions, Goldman Sachs (GS.N) said in that note. Hedge fund long positions in information technology stocks reached the largest in eight months, said Goldman Sachs. The largest hedge fund buying centered on North America, while Europe and Asia apart from Japan which were subject to the net short positions, said Goldman Sachs.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Brendan McDermid, Morgan Stanley, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, David Evans Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, nab, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, North America, Europe, Asia, Japan, China

☆ Exclusive: Hedge fund Caxton wins on bond rout to claw back performance losses - sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

They added that the fund had about a negative 2% performance for the year to the end of October. The CGI fund, at the end of June had been down about 8%, added one of the sources. The CGI fund did well from a view that the Bank of Japan would ease its ultra-loose monetary policy, said two of the sources. They also said short bets that bond prices would fall, as well as bets the U.S. Treasury yield curve would steepen were some of the top earners for the fund. Caxton's CGI fund also profited from the difference between Japanese and U.S. stock prices, the sources said, adding that losses on commodities bets in gold and a yen hedge detracted from performance.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Andrew Law's, Caxton, Jerome Powell, Bruce Kovner, Nell Mackenzie, Carolina Mandl, Svea Herbst Bayliss, Maiya, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kirsten Donovan, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Caxton Associates, Caxton Global Investments, Bank of Japan, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Thomson

☆ Take Five: You (may) have arrived at your destination
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

No wonder markets see a 70% chance that the Fed's brutal 20-month tightening cycle is over and that rate cuts could begin as soon as June. So watch closely to see if the top central bankers push back against the cut chatter until inflation is truly tamed. Shekel, gold, oil response to the war5/RACE DAY RATE HIKEThe famous Melbourne Cup horse race runs on Tuesday, but some of the shortest odds are on an Aussie central bank rate hike over in Sydney that day. Three-year and 10-year Australian government bond yields have hit their highest since 2011, though backed off slightly on the Fed's hold. The Australian dollar has also rallied strongly against its New Zealand counterpart as rate expectations diverge.

Persons: Marc Jones, Dhara, Kevin Buckland, Tom Westbrook, Lewis Krauskopf, BoE, Horton, Walt Disney, Mittal, shekel, Antony Blinken, Jordan, Luci Ellis, Kripa Jayaram, Riddhima Talwani, Gareth Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, ECB, FX, Bank of Japan, Reuters, eBay, Nvidia, UBS, ABN Amro, Allianz, Friday, U.S, Melbourne Cup, Westpac, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Australia, Gaza, Here's, London, Tokyo, Singapore, New York, Britain, U.S, Europe, Commerzbank, Israel, Gaza City, Iran, Sydney

☆ Analysis: Traders bet ECB will be first big central bank to cut rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. With investors confident that big central banks are likely done raising rates, focus has switched to when rate cuts will start. Traders now price in over an 80% chance of a 25 basis-points (bps) ECB cut by April, which had been fully priced for July last week. Piet Christiansen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, said the expectations for ECB rate cuts now reflected a "doom and gloom" scenario. He added the ECB would need to cut rates at least as much as traders expect next year.

Persons: Heiko Becker, BoE, Shamik Dhar, Christine Lagarde, Piet Christiansen, Lagarde, Goldman, Gurpreet Gill, Dario Perkins, Yoruk, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Dhara Ranasinghe, Emelia Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Traders, ECB, Fed, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, BNY Mellon Investment, Treasury, Reuters, Danske Bank, Asset Management, Lombard, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, United States, Europe, U.S, Britain, Israel

ECB chief Christine Lagarde may stick with the high-for-longer mantra that has pushed up long-dated bond yields. A weakening economy meanwhile suggests the need for further tightening is limited but the ECB is likely to push back against rate-cut speculation. ECB chief economist Philip Lane says the ECB will need time, possibly until next spring, before it can be confident that inflation is coming down. The ECB expects headline inflation to ease to 3.2% in 2024 from an average of 5.6% in 2023. Oil price moves, inflation outlook shifts4/ What does the ECB do if things go wrong with Italy?

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Johanna Geron, Francis Yared, Philip Lane, Lagarde, PEPP, Reinhard Cluse, Chris Jeffrey, Cluse, ING's Brzeski, Dhara Ranasinghe, Stefano Rebaudo, Naomi Rovnick, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Central Bank, Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs, REUTERS, ECB, Deutsche Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Reuters, Legal, General Investment Management, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Brussels, Belgium, Europe, United States, Italy, Germany

Enter the Swiss franc, a longstanding safe haven asset that just hit its highest level against the euro since 2015 , standing tall as its traditional rivals lose appeal. Other than U.S. dollar cash, only the Swiss franc and gold remained as options, Ielpo said. The Swiss franc has rallied over 3% against the yen this month. Reuters GraphicsUNCERTAIN WORLDSince the Oct.7 Hamas attacks in Israel, the Swiss franc -- also referred to as the Swissie -- has rallied roughly 2% against the dollar. "The war in the Middle East clearly has lead to a flight to safety that benefited the Swiss franc," said Karsten Junius, an economist at J.Safra Sarasin in Zurich.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Florian Ielpo, Ielpo, Jeremy Stretch, Karsten Junius, Francesco Pesole, J.Safra Sarassin's Junius, Luca Paolini, Paolini, Treasuries, Toby Gibb, Naomi Rovnick, Alun John, John Revill, Amanda Cooper, Dhara, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Swiss, Nestle, Wall, Lombard, U.S, Swiss National Bank, Traders, Ministry of Finance, CIBC Capital Markets, Reuters, ING, Management, Artemis, Thomson Locations: ZURICH, Israel, Geneva, Japan, Zurich, Swiss, U.S, London

☆ Take Five: Another curve ball for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The European Central Bank looks set to sit tight after a string of interest rate hikes, while there's a slew of U.S. earnings and Argentina's presidential election. ECB chief economist Philip Lane says the central bank was still "quite some distance" from easing monetary policy. Canada's central bank, meeting on Wednesday, is tipped to leave rates steady as inflation eases. 2 economy, property turmoil threatens China's 5% growth target - even after a consensus-smashing 4.9% quarterly expansion. Milei, surprise victor in the August primary election, has pledged to dollarise the economy and get rid of the central bank.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Amanda Cooper, Naomi Rovnick, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Rodrigo Campos, Philip Lane, hasn't, Javier Milei, Sergio Massa, Patricia Bullrich, Vineet Sachdev, Sumanta Sen, Dhara Ranasinghe, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Hamas, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, General Motors, Merck, United Parcel Service, Investors, International Monetary, Massa, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, London, Tokyo, New York, Israel, Palestinian, Russia, Ukraine, China, Beijing, ARGENTINA, Argentina, Pasir Kongkunakornkul

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