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☆ Volatility, higher rates, and surging bitcoin. Here's what analysts are saying about Trump's victory.
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Will Martin | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Analysts expect Trump's economic policies to increase inflation, and push interest rates higher. AdvertisementDonald Trump's victory is set to herald a new era of higher inflation, tighter monetary policy, and surging cryptocurrencies, analysts said in initial reactions to the presidential election result. The economic impact of Trump's second term is likely to be volatile, said Lindsay James, investment strategist at UK-based Quilter Investments. However, such cuts could be shortlived if Trump's trade policies, which include proposed near-universal tariffs, prove to be inflationary as expected. Bitcoin could hit $100,000One asset that analysts expect to surge in the wake of Trump's victory is bitcoin, which rallied sharply early on Wednesday morning.

Persons: Donald Trump, —, Donald Trump's, Lindsay James, Elon Musk, Thomas Matthews, Trump, Russ Mould, AJ Bell Organizations: Service, Investments, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, Rabobank, White

☆ A recession next year is now even less likely following the blowout jobs report, says Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Friday's knockout jobs report has squashed fears of an imminent recession. Goldman Sachs cut the chances of a recession in the next year to 15%, and other analysts cheered. AdvertisementRecession fears have weighed on Wall Street recently, but Friday's blowout jobs report has assuaged worries of an imminent economic downturn. "Friday's US labor report put paid to US recession fears," Rabobank's research team wrote. The latest jobs report has relieved some concerns about the economy, but also dashed hopes for another jumbo cut in November.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, Stocks, Goldman, Saxo, Kamala Harris Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Labor Statistics, Federal Locations: There's

☆ Banks get bullish on the British pound despite the possibility of an imminent snapback
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( George Bextor | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

In a recent research note, experts at Goldman Sachs were upbeat on the pound, commenting that sterling "tops the list" in the G-10 basket of major currency crosses. The analysts are sticking with their bet that sterling will rise against the dollar , with a target of 1.31. "Combined with still-high rates [this] could attract capital flows into GBP after many years of being a structural sell," the UBS analysts added. She added, "The tone of many of the policies announced by the new Labour government in recent days are market friendly ... The appearance of order in the U.K. government coupled with an expectation of a warmer relationship with the EU should provide for some optimism."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Keir Starmer's, Jane Foley Organizations: Bank of, UBS, Labour Party, FX, Labour Locations: Bank of England

☆ Gatorade enters new categories — even unflavored water — as competition to hydrate consumers ramps up
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-06 | by ( Amelia Lucas | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

As Gatorade approaches its 60th birthday, the brand is staying spry, branching out into new categories from unflavored water to energy drink mixes. It accounted for 63.5% of the U.S. sports drink market in 2023, according to Euromonitor International data. Gatorade President Mike Del Pozzo told CNBC that the competition is good for the category overall – and shows his brand's own strength. "There's plenty of loud voices right now, trying to make a name for themselves," said Del Pozzo. And Propel's annual sales are projected to cross $1 billion for the first time this year, Del Pozzo said.

Persons: spry, There's, Jim Watson, Coke, Watson, Ramon Laguarta, influencer Logan, Mike Del Pozzo, Del Pozzo, we're, Rabobank's Watson Organizations: Gatorade, Euromonitor, Cola, Pepsi, Rabobank, Unilever, Nestle Health Science, PepsiCo, Energy, Citi Research, CNBC

☆ Dutch election: what's at stake for markets after far-right Wilders' victory
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Dutch politician Geert Wilders, the leader of the PVV party, speaks during the final debate between the lead candidates in the Dutch election before polls open on Wednesday, in The Hague, Netherlands, November 21, 2023. REUTERS/Piroschka van de Wouw/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAMSTERDAM, Nov 23 (Reuters) - A shock win for Geert Wilders's far-right, anti-EU Freedom Party in Dutch elections has set the stage for months of uncertainty. However, Wilders took a more pragmatic approach during the campaign and he will need to collaborate with pro-EU parties if he wants to govern. Opponents of a critical pension fund reform, which went into effect in July, now have a majority in parliament. There is broad support for raising taxation on banks, including from Wilders' party, which also backs taxing lenders' windfall profits from higher interest rates.

Persons: Geert Wilders, de, Geert Wilders's, Mark Rutte, Wilders, Marcel Klok, Klok, WILDERS, Rutte, van Zanden, Rabobank's van Zanden, Banks, ING's Klok, Joost Beaumont, Yoruk, Amanda Cooper, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, EU, Party, ING, European Union, Rabobank, ABN AMRO, Thomson Locations: The Hague, Netherlands, Dutch, Europe

☆ Asia stocks slip as dovish Fed cheer fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But it fell 0.2% in early trade on Wednesday. Nasdaq futures (.IXIC) were down 0.2% and S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% early in the Asia day. They have fallen about 50 basis points since the Fed held rates steady early in the month. It was broadly steady at $1.0921 to the euro and 148.17 yen in early trade on Wednesday. In commodity markets Brent crude futures held just above their 50-day moving average at $82.64 a barrel.

Persons: Tyrone Siu, Naka, Rabobank's, Philip Marey, Jonathan Petersen, Michele Bullock, Changpeng Zhao, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Japan's Nikkei, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Thursday's, Federal Reserve, Fed, Capital Economics, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Wednesday Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, United States, U.S, Singapore

☆ Undeterred by dollar's renewed strength, analysts see weakness ahead: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Four thousand U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. Adam Cole, the chief currency strategist at RBC, says he is biased toward a stronger dollar but admits the prevailing foreign exchange view in markets remains a tough nut to crack. "If you look at consensus forecasts, the consensus has been dollar negative for five years now and it hasn't worked," Cole said. One notable outlier among major central banks is the Bank of Japan, which has made the yen one of the worst-performing major currencies this year, down over 13%. (For other stories from the October Reuters foreign exchange poll:)Reporting by Hari Kishan; Polling by Prerana Bhat, Purujit Arun, Pranoy Menon and Anant Chandak; Editing by Ross Finley and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Rick Wilking, Adam Cole, hasn't, Cole, Jane Foley, Rabobank's Foley, Hari Kishan, Prerana Bhat, Purujit Arun, Pranoy Menon, Anant Chandak, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, greenback, Treasury, RBC, U.S, Futures, Bank of Japan, Rabobank, Reuters, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S

ORLANDO, Florida, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The 'dollar smile' can be a blessing for Wall Street, or a curse. But the speed and extent of the move in the dollar and Treasuries, and tightening of financial conditions, warrant vigilance. According to Goldman Sachs, U.S. financial conditions are the tightest this year. This is not dissimilar to other major economies and regions, some of which - the euro zone, China and emerging markets - are feeling an even tighter squeeze. It might be too early for that to appear in third-quarter results - many big Wall Street firms will have hedged their currency exposure over the near term - but if sustained, fourth-quarter profits could be affected.

Persons: Stephen Jen, reckons Stuart Kaiser, Kaiser, Goldman Sachs, Rabobank's Jane Foley, Foley, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Treasury, Citi, FCI, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, China, U.S, America

☆ Dollar at 10-month top as US yields spike; yen slides
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Dollar banknote is seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsSINGAPORE, Sept 26 (Reuters) - The dollar stood by 10-month highs against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, supported by U.S. bond yields scaling 16-year peaks, while the yen tiptoed deeper into the intervention danger zone. "Few currencies will resist the bullish dollar macro resiliency theme and the euro and Chinese yuan look more vulnerable than most." The yen has slowly but inexorably slid toward the 150-per-dollar mark as policymakers stuck with ultra-easy settings. The yen hit 148.97 to the dollar on Monday and last traded at 148.72.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, Jane Foley, Tom Westbrook, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, U.S, Australia's Westpac, Swiss, Traders, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Europe, Asia, U.S, Tokyo

☆ Dollar at 10-month top as U.S. yields spike, yen slides
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar stood by 10-month highs against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, supported by U.S. bond yields scaling 16-year peaks, while the yen tiptoed deeper into the intervention danger zone. "Few currencies will resist the bullish dollar macro resiliency theme and the euro and Chinese yuan look more vulnerable than most." The yen has slowly but inexorably slid toward the 150-per-dollar mark as policymakers stuck with ultra-easy settings. The yen hit 148.97 to the dollar on Monday and last traded at 148.72. "We remain of the view that the dollar is unlikely to weaken significantly until Fed rate cuts are firmly on the horizon," she said.

Persons: Sterling, Jane Foley Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Australia's Westpac, Swiss, Traders, Bank of Japan Locations: Europe, Asia, U.S

☆ China's economic slump means a glass of milk could soon cost a lot less
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A glass of milk could soon cost a lot less due to China's economic slump. Whole milk powder prices slumped to a three-year low as Chinese demand for dairy products slides. With demand struggling to recover after the pandemic, whole milk powder prices have been sliding, Bloomberg reported. The average price for a ton of milk powder has tumbled to $2,864 – the lowest level since June 2020, per the GlobalDairyTrade. Economic growth for the three months to June 30 also badly missed economists' expectations of 7.3%, rising just 6.3%.

Persons: Per, Emma Higgins Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Per Bloomberg Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, New Zealand

☆ Dollar tentative, kiwi jumps as NZ inflation data tempers rate doves
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] A New Zealand Dollar note is seen in this picture illustration June 2, 2017. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar rebounded from a 15-month low hit in the previous session, with its index steadying at 99.943 in early Asia trade. Sterling <GBP=D3> bought $1.3035, ahead of UK inflation data due later on Wednesday. "The stickiness of UK inflation measures has contrasted notably with price measures in both the euro zone and the U.S. which have been moving lower," said Rabobank's head of FX strategy Jane Foley. "While inflation is 'lower', it is not 'low' by any stretch of the imagination.

Persons: Thomas White, Tina Teng, Klaas, Jane Foley, Satish Ranchhod, Kazuo Ueda, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, New Zealand, U.S ., U.S, CMC Markets, Reuters, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Sterling, Bank of, Reserve Bank of New, Westpac, Australian, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S, Bank of England, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ Dollar tentative, kiwi jumps as New Zealand inflation data tempers rate doves
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

English, American and New Zealand currency around a paper map of the world. The dollar held just above an over one-year low on Wednesday as traders assessed the U.S. rate outlook, while the New Zealand dollar spiked briefly after a higher-than-expected inflation reading pushed back prospects of policy easing further out. Sterling bought $1.3035, ahead of U.K. inflation data due later on Wednesday. "The stickiness of U.K. inflation measures has contrasted notably with price measures in both the euro zone and the U.S. which have been moving lower," said Rabobank's head of FX strategy Jane Foley. "While inflation is 'lower', it is not 'low' by any stretch of the imagination.

Persons: Tina Teng, Klaas, Sterling, Jane Foley, Satish Ranchhod, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: New Zealand, U.S ., U.S, CMC Markets, Reuters, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of, Reserve Bank of New, Westpac, Australian, Bank of Japan Locations: Zealand, Asia, U.S, Bank of England, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ Dollar licks wounds as policy peak looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The euro , which jumped 2.4% last week to a 16-month high, held just below that peak at $1.1223. The yen , also up 2.4% last week, held at 138.56 per dollar. The Australian and New Zealand dollars pulled back slightly, with the Aussie last at $0.6821 - off last week's peak of $0.6895 - and the kiwi down 0.2% at $0.6355 after hitting a five-month high of $0.6412 on Friday. The Swedish and Norwegian crowns made gains of more than 5% on the dollar last week, and have paused for breath. "By then other major central banks including the ECB will also likely have reached their peak policy rates ... interest rate dynamics may therefore swing back in favour of the dollar."

Persons: Carol Kong, Chris Weston, Sharp, Jane Foley, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes, Stephen Coates Organizations: SYDNEY, New Zealand, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Pepperstone, U.S, dovish Bank of Japan, ECB, Thomson Locations: Europe, Melbourne, Asia

☆ Dollar licks wounds as China data looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The euro , which jumped 2.4% last week to a 16-month high, held just below that peak at $1.1228. The yen , also up 2.4% last week, held at 138.69 per dollar. "The FX market is front running possible normalisation of Fed policy in 2024," said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone in Melbourne. "The question then is whether the dollar sell-off has gone too far and we are at risk of mean reversion early this week." The Swedish and Norwegian crowns made gains of more than 5% on the dollar last week.

Persons: Chris Weston, Sharp, Jane Foley, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes Organizations: SYDNEY, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Pepperstone, U.S, New Zealand, dovish Bank of Japan, ECB, Thomson Locations: U.S, Europe, Melbourne, Asia

That threw a new curveball at UK markets, as just last week economists polled by Reuters had unanimously expected the BoE to raise by 25 basis points. I would not be surprised if we see a 50-bp rate rise from the Bank of England tomorrow." Other analysts said delivering a larger rate rise on Thursday risked further undermining the BoE's messaging. Bets on where BoE rate hikes might peak rose as high as 6% on Wednesday. The rise in yields hit UK housebuilders (.FTNMX402020), which were down as much as 3.1%.

Persons: BoE, Melanie Baker, Liz, Nick Rees, Richard McGuire, Rabobank's McGuire, Yoruk Bahceli, William Schomberg, Dhara Ranasinghe, Danilo Masoni, Alun John, Peter Graff Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Royal London Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Wednesday's, MPC, FX, Monex, Rabobank, Sterling, Thomson Locations: Monex Europe

Pig prices soared in Europe last year as output was cut by farms squeezed by high grain and energy costs. The EU pork industry has been buffeted in the past decade by a Russian trade embargo, the westward spread of African swine fever and the COVID-19 pandemic. "We're continuing to add costs to the overall pork production chain," Justin Sherrard, global strategist for animal protein at Rabobank, said. That may mean EU pork exports, whose share of production more than doubled to 21% between 2000 and 2020, have peaked. But an inflationary economy may make consumers less ready to accept rising pork prices and deepen a shift towards chicken as a cheaper, more convenient option.

Persons: Carole Joliff, Joliff, Jean, Paul Simier, AKI, We're, Justin Sherrard, slaughterhouses, Klaus Kaiser, FICT, Rabobank's Sherrard, jamon serrano, prosciutto, Tim Koch, Gus Trompiz, Forrest Crellin, Michael Hogan, Johannes Birkebaek, Emma Pinedo, Toby Sterling, David Evans Organizations: European Union, Commission, Rabobank, BLE, Danish Crown, AMI, Thomson Locations: PARIS, Brittany, Europe, Russian, Hungarian, China, Japan, Denmark, Netherlands, Danish, France, Brazil, United States, Germany, EU, Paris, Hamburg, Copenhagen, Madrid, Amsterdam

☆ Stocks pinned to lows as rate fears weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Softer-than-expected growth and inflation data in Australia sent the Aussie dollar to a two-month trough at $0.6696 in early trade, but lifted the local stockmarket (.AXJO) from lows as traders wound back interest rate expectations. The mixed tone of data in the last few days seems to have lots of assets pausing at major chart levels. Two-year Treasury yields , a guide to short-term U.S. rate expectations, are close to four-month highs, but at 4.8407% are below a November peak of 4.8830%. Commodities steadied as China demand hopes balance global growth concerns, and Brent crude sat at $83.45 a barrel. "Should Beijing send Russia arms, it risks a rapid geopolitical breaking of the world economy," said Rabobank's research head, Jan Lambregts.

☆ Recession alarm bells are ringing, but (much) less loudly than before
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Feb 10 (Reuters) - The rapid reopening of China's economy, plunging European gas prices and cooling U.S. inflation suggest a global recession may not be as deep and protracted as feared just weeks ago. The International Monetary Fund raised its 2023 global growth outlook and a painful euro area recession that was once seen as all-but-certain is less of a concern. Citi sees a 30% chance of a global recession this year, down from 50% in the second half of last year. But rallying stocks do not mean the world will escape a recession, rather that China's post-COVID economic reopening should limit the downturn. And economists polled by Reuters forecast global growth would barely clear 2% this year, a level associated with significant downturns historically, and flagged the risk that it could be even slower.

☆ Asian stocks make 7-month highs, Australian dollar gains on hot inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Asian equities scaled their highest levels in seven months on Wednesday after some regional markets reopened after holidays, and the Australian dollar hit multi-month highs as surging inflation made higher interest rates more likely. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.2% to a seven-month high but traded below the day's peak. Globally, stocks have posted strong gains this year after a torrid 2022, based on expectations that inflation is close to peaking and the rise in U.S. interest rates will taper off. Stronger-than-expected economic data in Europe eased market worries of a sharp recession there, but interest rates are still seen creeping higher despite declining energy prices reducing inflationary pressure. The New Zealand dollar slid after New Zealand reported annual inflation of 7.2% in the fourth quarter, below a central bank forecast of 7.5%.

REUTERS/Eva Plevier/File PhotoWINNIPEG, Manitoba, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Netherlands-based Rabobank NA (RABOVR.UL) is aiming to grab 10-15% of the Canadian farm lending market within 15 years, as it aims to shake up a sector dominated by government and domestic banks, its new Canadian agricultural head told Reuters on Wednesday. It took Rabobank a decade before deciding to expand into Canadian farm lending, taking a methodical approach, Lieverse said. Rabobank expects Canadian farm lending to be profitable from the start and plans to announce hiring plans shortly, she said. Rabobank did not release its estimate of the value of the Canadian farm lending market, but government agency Statistics Canada pegged 2021 farm debt at a record-high C$129 billion ($96.1 billion), with chartered banks accounting for 37%. Farm Credit Canada, owned by the Canadian government, is the biggest agricultural lender, controlling a market share of about one-third, Lieverse said.

☆ Euro, sterling jump, dollar tumbles as market turns to risk assets
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] U.S. dollar and British pound notes are seen in this November 7, 2016 picture illustration. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Euro and sterling rose against the safe-haven U.S. dollar on Monday, supported by a risk-on sentiment across markets with European stocks rising on persistent hopes China will ease COVID restrictions. Another risk-sensitive currency, sterling , reversed earlier losses to trade up 0.6% to $1.1442, while the euro jumped to its highest since Oct. 27. Four Fed policymakers on Friday also indicated they would still consider a smaller interest rate hike at their next policy meeting. Reporting by Joice Alves in London; Editing by Ed Osmond and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

As Truss spoke on Friday gains made in anticipation of the corporation tax U-turn faded. Ten-year gilt yields were 40 bps above session lows hit earlier on Friday, also pushed up by moves in bond yields globally. UNDERWHELMEDBritain's mini-budget three weeks ago triggered some of the biggest ever jumps in British bond yields, exposed vulnerabilities in the pensions sector -- undermining the country's financial stability. "How it impacts liquidity on the gilt market going forward is something we are monitoring closely." Rabobank's McGuire said pressure on UK assets could lead the BoE to re-intervene in the bond market or delay its quantitative tightening, bond-selling plans.

☆ Confidence in UK assets on thin ice, investors warn - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Slightly more than half - 55% - of the international banks and research consultancies polled by Reuters last week said there was a high risk confidence in British assets would deteriorate sharply in the coming three months. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterFifteen out of 29 respondents said the risk was high, including three primary dealers of British government bonds. These shifts in part reflect investors' worry that Britain's reliance on imported energy will leave it exposed to higher inflation for longer. "But the new, inexperienced government faces great challenges and could easily make missteps which add to investors' concerns." "If higher inflation becomes a more structural phenomenon... yields could also turn out to be structurally higher," Rabobank's Bas Van Geffen said.

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