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☆ Trump tariffs to push down U.S. growth 'a great deal' going into 2026, Morgan Stanley warns
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Donald Trump's proposed tariffs will dent U.S. economic growth going into 2026, said Morgan Stanley's chief global economist Seth Carpenter. In the event that they are enacted all at once, they could result in a "big negative shock" to the economy, Carpenter told CNBC's Sri Jegarajah on the sidelines of Morgan Stanley's annual Asia Pacific Summit in Singapore. Carpenter, who maintained Morgan Stanley's base case of these tariffs being spread over 2025, said they would lead to higher inflation. "Then into 2026, we think growth starts to come down a great deal in the U.S. because of those tariffs and some of the other policies," he cautioned. Very clear, tariffs are a drag on growth for the U.S., not just for the countries that the tariffs are put on," Carpenter added.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Morgan Stanley's, Seth Carpenter, Trump, Carpenter, CNBC's Sri, Morgan, Mark Malek, Siebert, Joe Biden, Trump's, Malek, Ben Emons Organizations: Asia Pacific Summit, Microsoft, Apple, U.S . Federal Reserve, FedWatch Advisors Locations: China, CNBC's Sri Jegarajah, Morgan Stanley's, Singapore, U.S

☆ Thanksgiving meals are expected to be cheaper in 2024 as turkey prices drop
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

And when it comes to Thanksgiving food, it seems Americans are getting relief on their grocery bills this year following a few years of escalating costs. The national average cost for a 16-pound turkey is down 6% from 2023, according to the Farm Bureau. Overall turkey prices have decreased about 4% in the past year, according to the consumer price index. Farmers raised about 205 million turkeys in 2024, down 6% from 2023, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The aggregate impact has been lower turkey prices.

Persons: Robin Wenzel, Bernt Nelson, Nelson, Monty Rakusen, That's, —, Robin Wenzel Wells, Wenzel Organizations: American Farm Bureau Federation, Farm Bureau, Deloitte, Finance, Food Institute, Farm, Farmers, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Digitalvision, Getty, Food, USDA Locations: Wells, Turkey, U.S, Ukraine

If the Fed doesn't cut rates in December, we may see mortgage rates inch up. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowWhat Are Today's Mortgage Refinance Rates? See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. Current 30-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year mortgage rates are hovering around 6.60%, according to Zillow data. But now that inflation has decelerated and the Fed has started cutting rates, mortgage rates have trended down compared to where they were a year ago.

Persons: Jerome Powell, It's, they've, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Mortgage Research, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, ARM, . Government Locations: Chevron, Government

☆ Cheaper turkeys help bring down Thanksgiving dinner costs this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Vanessa Yurkevich | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —Thanksgiving dinner will cost less this year than last but will still be 19% higher than before the pandemic, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual Thanksgiving survey out Wednesday. The average cost of this year’s dinner for 10 people is $58.08, or about $5.80 per person, the survey found. The center piece of the Thanksgiving meal, the turkey, helped bring down the overall cost. But items like cubed stuffing and dinner rolls both increased by 8% because of higher labor costs, the AFBF said. The cost of the Thanksgiving dinner items varies based on location, the survey found.

Persons: ”, Bernt Nelson, “, Zippy Duvall, Joe Biden, Donald Trump Organizations: CNN, American Farm Bureau, American Farm Bureau Federation, Cranberries, Farm Bureau Locations: Puerto Rico, Midwest

☆ Nvidia earnings are more important to the market than the Fed and jobs data, according to options market
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Nvidia earnings results this week are more important to the stock market than the Federal Reserve or even jobs data, according to the options market. But Jensen Huang's company remains crucially important to the market, according to Wall Street firms tracking the options market. NVDA 1D mountain Nvidia The options market shows an implied move of 8% for Nvidia, according to Barclays. For investors, how Nvidia moves could determine what is next for a market that has been flagging lately following the postelection rally, according to Bank of America Securities' Asis. Asis recommends hedging against the earnings results in case Nvidia disappoints.

Persons: Jensen, Gonzalo Asis, Asis, Stefano Pascale Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Wall, Bank of America Securities, Sunday, Nvidia, CPI, Barclays, Bank of America, Apple, Microsoft Locations: Asis

☆ Jim Cramer explains why budget retailers like Walmart are seeing success
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The big box retailer posted an earnings and revenue beat on Tuesday, impressing Wall Street and sending the stock to a new 52-week high, up 3% by the close. Walmart highlighted growth in its e-commerce segment and advertising business as factors that contributed to its success. But to Cramer, the main reason Walmart's quarter impressed Wall Street is its affordable merchandise and price reductions. Walmart and peer retailers that focus on value — like Amazon and Costco — are what consumers want right now, and these retailers are some of the only ones that can afford large price rollbacks, he added. "There's something going on underneath, something that's hurting every department store, every dollar store, every mall store," Cramer said.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Wall Organizations: Walmart, Costco Locations: U.S

☆ European markets set for higher open as investors look to shake off negative sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

City of London skyline view looking over the River Thames and Waterloo Bridge at sunset on 10th February 2024 in London, United Kingdom. European markets were on track to rise as a new trading week kicks off Monday, with investors looking to shake off last week's negative sentiment and attention turning to regional inflation data. Italy's FTSE MIB was also on track to open higher, adding 158 points to 34,060. Investors this week will be looking to several key regional data points, including the latest inflation data out of the U.K. on Wednesday. The figures come after Friday's U.K. gross domestic product reading, which came in at 0.1% in the third quarter, falling short of expectations.

Persons: Germany's DAX, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CAC, Markets, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: London, United Kingdom

☆ 5 things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-17 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

October retail sales, released Friday morning, came in slightly ahead of expectations, indicating a 0.4% monthly increase, versus a 0.3% increase expected. Disney's reported strong earnings and its stock advanced more than 16% for the week as a result. In the week ahead, we will get earnings from three Club names, including the highly anticipated quarter from Nvidia, and a couple of housing market-related updates. The Street is looking for Nvidia sales of $33.1 billion in its fiscal Q3 and earnings of 75 cents per share. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Donald Trump, Friday's, Jerome Powell, Powell, That's, YTD We're, we're, Jensen, Trump, Nvidia's, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Angela Weiss Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Fed, Disney, Depot, Nvidia, TJX Companies, Home Goods, Blackwell, Palo Alto Networks, Home Depot, Stanley, Walmart, Viking Holdings, Sonoma, WSM, Baidu, PDD Holdings, Deere & Co, Warner Music Group, Intuit, Ross Stores, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Getty Locations: Maxx, U.S, China, Palo, VIK, Williams, New York City

☆ 7 ways a Trump administration could affect your finances
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-16 | by ( John Towfighi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Here are seven ways a Trump administration could affect your personal finances. During Trump’s first term, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act temporarily expanded the child tax credit from $1,000 to $2,000. “He will deliver.”TaxesThe Trump administration is expected to focus on extending tax cuts introduced by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are set to expire in 2025. The Trump administration wants to “promote choice and competition” and make health care more affordable, according to his policy platform. The Trump administration will likely cut red tape to encourage business and real estate developments.

Persons: Donald Trump, he’d, Trump, JD Vance, Maria Castillo Dominguez, —, Karoline Leavitt, Vance, “, ” Leavitt, Alan Auerbach, Social Security Trump, Biden, Berkeley’s Auerbach, Joe Biden’s, ” Auerbach, “ They’re, ”, Trump’s, Auerbach, Sarah Lueck, ” Trump Organizations: CNN, Social Security, Jobs, Valoria Wealth Management, Trump, Urban, Brookings Tax, Tax, UC Berkeley, Center, enrollees, Republicans, Public, Consumer, National Retail Federation, Health, Republican, Center for Budget, Medicare, it’s, Housing

☆ Treasury yields tick higher as investors digest Powell’s comments, await further data
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-15 | by ( Sawdah Bhaimiya | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by more than two basis points to 4.4453%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury rose by more than three basis points to 4.3307%. U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday as investors digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's latest comments, and awaited further economic data. The remarks come after the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter point last week. Investors will turn their attention to further economic data due to be published on Friday, including retail sales, industrial production, and import prices.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, Powell's Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Investors, Fed

European markets closed higher on Thursday as traders digested a slew of earnings and assessed fresh inflation data for a signal on the possible trajectory of interest rate cuts. The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally ended the day 1.08% higher, with all sectors and major bourses trading in the green. Shares of Burberry jumped more than 22%, after the British luxury house announced a sweeping overhaul strategy to stem declining sales. Investors are assessing the likelihood of another interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December after the latest U.S. inflation data. U.S. stocks were little changed Thursday, while Asia-Pacific markets traded in mixed territory overnight.

Persons: Donald Trump's Organizations: Burberry, Siemens, Bilfinger, Merck, Fincantieri, Metro Bank, Aviva, Deutsche Telekom, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Locations: Veon, Asia, Pacific

The 10-year Treasury yield sat near flat at 4.449%, near its highest point since July. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near a 4-month high on Thursday after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is in no hurry to slash interest rates. The moves followed Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech in Dallas Thursday, where he told business leaders the cenral bank doesn't need to quickly cut interest rates. "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said in prepared remarks. The speeches come as investors and economists scrutinize what President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House could mean for U.S. interest rates.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Adriana Kugler, Donald Trump's, Dow Jones, —, Sarah Min Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed Locations: Dallas

☆ Fed’s Powell: Rate cuts are still underway
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Powell said more rate cuts are likely underway because the economy’s current trends and dynamics are expected to remain in place, at least in the short run. “We are moving policy over time to a more neutral setting,” Powell said in prepared remarks for an event in Dallas. It’s also too soon for Fed officials to conclude that October data is indicative of any new trend. While additional hot inflation reports could be factored in to the Fed’s decisions, officials are also looking at the US labor market closely. There’s also been tension between Trump and Powell, whom the president-elect first nominated in 2017 to steer the central bank.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Powell, Donald Trump, Trump’s, It’s, Price, “, —, There’s Organizations: Washington CNN — Federal, Republican, Fed Locations: Dallas, stoke, Trump

☆ Here's the deflation breakdown for October 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"We are seeing [deflation] to some extent," said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics. Energy prices and electronicsGasoline prices are also "way down," Zandi said. Consumers "could get more relief there because global oil prices are soft," Zandi said. Food prices are also generally underpinned by their own unique supply-and-demand dynamics, economists said. Lower energy prices can also take pressure off food prices, as it costs less to transport and distribute food to grocery store shelves.

Persons: Stephen Brown, Mark Zandi, women's outerwear, they've, Zandi, They've, Donald Trump's, they'd, Bacon Organizations: North, Capital Economics, U.S, Moody's, Finance, CPI, Bank of America, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Consumers Locations: U.S, North America, China

☆ High grocery prices got droves of Americans to vote for Trump but they shouldn’t expect to pay less over the next four years
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

With some of these pressure points softening, food prices have cooled to rates comparable to before the pandemic. “Grocery prices have skyrocketed,” he said. “Until we can — if we can — fix climate change, there’s no way that food prices can come down,” he told CNN. In the past, grocery prices have come down primarily when “the economy is under duress” and people don’t have enough money to pay for groceries. Absent these kinds of scenarios, Trump is unlikely to get the actual food prices we pay back to where they were during his first term.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, ”, “, ” Trump, “ That’s, That’s, Phil Lempert, Vance, Lempert, Leo Feler, Feler, it’s “ Organizations: New, New York CNN, AP VoteCast, New York Economic Club, ”, Trump, CNN, University of California Locations: New York, Ukraine, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Florida, California, China, Los Angeles

☆ Wholesale inflation heated up again last month, reversing recent progress
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —US wholesale inflation picked up more than expected in October, indicating that some price pressures persist at the producer level. Still, one potential favorable sign for inflation-weary consumers: Wholesale food prices dropped 0.2% for the month. FactSet consensus forecasts called for a 0.2% monthly gain and for the annual rate to heat up to 2.3%. Economists projected a 0.2% monthly gain and a 3% annual rate. Thursday’s PPI trajectory mirrored that seen in the latest Consumer Price Index data released Wednesday.

Persons: Price, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James ’, Thomas Simons, Jefferies, ” Simons, ” Oren Klachkin, Donald Trump’s, ”, Christopher Rupkey, Rupkey Organizations: CNN, of Labor Statistics, PPI, Federal Reserve, “, CPI, Nationwide

☆ Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, in line with expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wholesale prices nudged higher in October, though largely in line with expectations and mostly consistent with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. On a 12-month basis, headline wholesale inflation was at 2.4%. Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.3%, also one-tenth more than September and also matching expectations. Services rose 0.3% on the month, accounting for most of the PPI increase, and was driven largely by a 3.6% surge in portfolio management prices. Goods prices nudged higher by 0.1% after falling the previous two months.

Persons: Dow Organizations: Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, PPI, Traders, Labor Department

Price growth ticked higher in October as voters began casting ballots in a presidential election in which economic concerns played a big role. The consumer price index climbed to 2.6% last month since the same time last year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Stock futures turned higher, while traders bid up the price of government bonds. All-important shelter costs rose 0.4% from September to October, accounting for over half the monthly gains, the BLS said. Over the past four years, consumer prices have cumulatively increased about 20%, with the costs of many other goods and services rising even faster.

Persons: That's, Joe Biden’s, ” Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, ”, Donald Trump, Trump, Jerome Powell Organizations: of Labor Statistics, BLS, Charles, Charles Schwab Center, Financial Research, ” Voters, White House, Trump, Investors, Adobe, National Retail Federation, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Citi Locations: —

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), after Republican Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, in New York City, U.S., November 6, 2024. U.S. stocks slid on Thursday, as fresh comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that economic strength could warrant some patience with future rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 189 points, or 0.4%, after falling more than 250 points at the lows of the session. "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully," Powell said. Those moves come after the October producer price index released Thursday rose 0.2%, matching forecasts from economists polled by Dow Jones.

Persons: Republican Donald Trump, Jerome Powell, Stocks, Powell, Tesla, Dow Jones, Donald Trump's, Jay Woods Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Republican, U.S, Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Trump, Russell, PPI, Dow, Freedom Capital Locations: New York City, U.S, Dallas

☆ Annual inflation rate hit 2.6% in October, meeting expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The core CPI accelerated 0.3% for the month and was at 3.3% annually, also meeting forecasts. The consumer price index , which measures costs across a spectrum of goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month. That took the 12-month inflation rate to 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from September. Inflation perked up in October though pretty much in line with Wall Street expectations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Energy costs, which had been declining in recent months, were flat in October while the food index increased 0.2%.

Persons: Dow Jones, Trump, Ellen Zentner Organizations: Dow, of Labor Statistics, Stock, Federal Reserve, Energy, BLS, White, CPI, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

☆ Inflation report shows market could have a 'recipe for disaster' heading into new year, says economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-13 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

So far on Wednesday, the stock market was largely ignoring the morning's inflation report because the main CPI reading was as economists expected. But a look deeper into the report spells trouble for a stock market — and president-elect — that are going to want the Federal Reserve to keep cutting rates throughout next year to keep fueling the bull market. However, in recent months, policymakers have focused more on the headline number, saying shelter costs, which have an outsized influence on core CPI, will come down. But core inflation has remained unusually stubborn, suggesting the Fed may have to hold rates higher than investors were previously anticipating. Core CPI showed a third straight monthly increase of 0.3%, bringing the annual rate to 3.3%.

Persons: Chris Rupkey, Jerome Powell, Rupkey, Donald Trump, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, White, Washington , D.C Locations: Washington ,

☆ Bitcoin briefly tops $93,000 for the first time as investors digest postelection gains, inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-13 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Bitcoin rose above $93,000 for the first time on Wednesday, adding to its postelection rally, as traders pored through October inflation data. Traders were digesting the most recent consumer price index, which showed prices increased 0.2% in October, bringing the 12-month inflation rate up to 2.6%. Bitcoin, which has recently benefited from a big postelection rally across risk assets, is seen by many investors as a hedge against potential fiscal policy that could spark inflation. The rest of the crypto market sold off as investors took profits from the past week's rally. Most bitcoin miners, including Mara Holdings , Riot Platforms , CleanSpark and Iren , formerly known as Iris Energy, tumbled double digits.

Persons: cryptocurrency, MicroStrategy, Mara, XRP, Dogecoin, Elon, Donald Trump's Organizations: Traders, Mara Holdings, Energy

☆ Inflation hit a bump in October after slowing for six straight months
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-13 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Housing-related inflation accounted for half of the monthly rise, and energy prices were flat after dragging down the overall index for four of the past six months. The Consumer Price Index measures price changes across commonly purchased goods and services. Still, October’s increase was to be expected, due to unfavorable comparisons from a year ago and stubborn housing-related inflation. Consensus estimates were for a 0.2% monthly increase and a 2.6% annual increase in the overall CPI, according to FactSet. A potential ‘inflation shock’ in the wingsAlthough the broader US economy survived the sharpest inflation run-up seen in a generation, Americans’ finances — and their sentiment — were far from unscathed.

Persons: “, ” Stephen Juneau, Donald Trump, Larry Summers, Kate Bolduan, Trump’s, Lindsay Rosner, Jerome Powell Organizations: CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics ., Bank of America, BLS, —, Trump, Biden, CNN News Central, Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs Asset Management Locations: Ukraine

☆ Stock futures are little changed as investors look toward key inflation report: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the New York Stock Exchange floor on November 12, 2024 in New York City. U.S. stock futures traded near the flatline Tuesday night as Wall Street awaited the latest consumer price index data for insights on the pace of inflation. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also inched down around 0.1% each. Other notable economic data releases later this week include the producer price index data and retail sales numbers, which will be announced on Thursday and Friday, respectively. "This is a busy week with consumer prices, producer prices, and retail sales.

Persons: Dow, Tom Hainlin, Dow Jones, Scott Helfstein Organizations: New York Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Investors, Federal, Global, Fed Locations: New York City . U.S

☆ U.S. Treasury yields move higher as traders digest Trump win, await key data
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( Sawdah Bhaimiya | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by more than four basis points to 4.3550%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury — which is the most sensitive to interest rate expectations — rose by more than six basis points to 4.3149%. U.S. Treasury yields jumped on Tuesday as investors continued to digest what President-elect Donald Trump's election win could mean for interest rates, and awaited key economic data — including inflation — later this week. It comes after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for a second consecutive time last week, by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%. Federal Reserve officials including Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin and Federal Reserve board governor Christopher Waller will also speak on Tuesday.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Thomas Barkin, Christopher Waller Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Traders, Federal, Richmond Federal, FactSet

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