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But a series of data points showing worsening economic conditions has made some analysts believe a 0.5% cut is more likely — and perhaps even necessary. “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Fed Chair Jay Powell said in a speech last month. “A (0.5%) cut is usually done in emergencies,” like the Covid-19 pandemic, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s financial group. Mortgage interest rates have hit their lowest level since February 2023, while auto loan rates are also falling. A 0.5% cut would more directly affect rates tied to the fed funds rate, including credit cards, home equity lines of credit and small-business loans.

Persons: Steve Liesman, Jay Powell, Bill Dudley, ” Dudley, Preston Mui, Mui, ”, “, Mark Zandi, Greg McBride, ” McBride Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Wall, Minneapolis Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Bloomberg News, Fed, Bankrate Locations: Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, America

☆ The New Jobs Report Showed Employees Are Entering a so-so Era
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-04 | by ( Emily Stewart | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

For almost two years, many economists and observers have figured something has to give in the labor market. And then the labor market has turned around and said, "Ha, actually, no." If you're trying to upgrade your job, you're trying to get a better job, the time to do that was probably a year ago. If you have a job, you're at a relatively low risk of losing that job — despite the headlines about layoffs at some big-name companies. "If you're trying to upgrade your job, you're trying to get a better job, the time to do that was probably a year ago," Preston Mui, a senior economist at the macroeconomic policy group Employ America, said.

Persons: Nick Bunker, didn't, Guy Berger, Preston Mui, —, Heck, hasn't, It's, they're, Emily Stewart Organizations: Ferrari, Workers, Glass Institute, Companies, Business Locations: America

☆ Job Turnover Eased in June as the Labor Market Cooled
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Santul Nerkar | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

And the quits rate, a measure of workers’ confidence in the job market and bargaining power, decreased to 2.4 percent, from 2.6 percent in May and down from a record of 3 percent in April 2022. Quotable: ‘The labor market is unbalanced.’“We’re still in an economy where the labor market is unbalanced,” said Michael Strain, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, “with the demand for workers substantially outpacing the supply of workers.” There are roughly 1.6 job openings for each unemployed worker. The June JOLTS report provides more optimism that the Fed is approaching that soft landing, as demand for workers remains robust while tapering gradually. Inflation remains high by historical standards — at 3 percent, according to the latest data — but has eased substantially. “This is a really strong labor market that is staying strong but slowing down,” said Preston Mui, a senior economist at Employ America, a research and advocacy group focused on the job market.

Persons: “ We’re, ”, Michael Strain, Preston Mui Organizations: American Enterprise Institute, “, Reserve Locations: America

☆ Opinion | This Statistic Could Be Distorting How We Think About Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Preston Mui earned his doctorate in economics from the University of California, Berkeley, just last year, but he’s already making waves. Mui wrote that economists and policymakers are making too much of one widely followed statistic: the unit labor cost, which is supposed to represent how much business has to spend for labor to produce one unit of output. Rising unit labor costs are said to contribute to inflation. In a June 15 news conference, Lagarde cited unit labor costs five times. When asked why the central bank had revised its inflation expectations upward, she said, “The large part of it is the unit labor cost.”

Persons: Preston Mui, he’s, Mui, ”, Lawrence Summers, Jason Furman, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde Organizations: University of California, Harvard, European Central Bank Locations: Berkeley, America

[1/2] The U.S. Capitol dome is seen from the Russell Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., April 19, 2023. Despite the consensus on lowering inflation, the Fed is also reaching a point where opinions about the need for and timing of additional interest rate increases may start to diverge. In large part that job has fallen to the Fed, but it is a central bank of Biden's making. If the current crop of nominees is approved five of seven board members would be Biden appointees. The Fed under Powell has raised interest rates faster than at any time since former Fed Chair Paul Volcker's inflation fights of the 1970s and 1980s.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger WASHINGTON, Jerome Powell, haven't, Democrat Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Philip Jefferson, Lisa Cook, Adriana Kugler, Powell, Biden, Preston Mui, Mui, Paul, Howard Schneider, Jason Lange, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S, Russell Senate, REUTERS, . Federal, Democrat, Republican, Federal, of Governors, World Bank, Fed, Financial, America, Reuters, Biden, Trump, Black Americans, Thomson Locations: Russell, Washington , U.S, U.S, Biden's

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