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☆ The bond market is on watch for a Trump win. What it'll mean for the deficit, inflation, and yields.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

AdvertisementThe chart below shows a Trump lead based on how users are betting money on an outcome on Predictit's platform. So there's not really any change to tax policy and Trump has been looking to cut taxes further on companies and potentially on individuals as well." AdvertisementInflationWhere inflation is concerned, under a second Trump administration, expect a 10% import tariff on all goods. BondsAdvertisementExpectations for increased deficits, higher inflation, and slower growth have put upward pressure on interest rates over the last few weeks, Goldberg noted. And going forward, it's going to continue to put downward pressure on bond prices and upward pressure on yields, he added.

Persons: We've, Gennadiy Goldberg, Kamala Harris, — Goldberg, Goldberg, there's, Trump, Trump's, it's, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, TD Securities, Business, Republican, Trump, Predictit, Republican House, Democratic, Republicans, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Pew Research Center Trump, Washington, Federal Reserve, Investors Locations: Washington, Mexico, Canada

☆ Biden dropping out adds more uncertainty to markets. What investors are saying
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"We will continue to have both bulls and bears because you have both sides who are talking about the uncertainty, increased uncertainty regarding the presidency," Stovall added. A 'Red Wave'? "It seems as if the greatest likelihood is a red wave," Stovall said. Trump trade hurt? To be sure, Sunday's announcement could pump the brakes on the so-called Trump trade seen since the late-June debate.

Persons: Joe Biden's, Biden, Kamala Harris, Sam Stovall, Trump, Stovall, it's, —, PredictIt, Harris, CFRA's Stovall, Wells, Stephen Baxter, Baxter, Oppenheimer, Hogan, Riley, It's, Kim Forrest, Forrest, Fred Imbert Organizations: Trump, CFRA, Democratic National Convention, Republican, Democratic, Medicaid, Med Adv, Bokeh Capital Partners Locations: Friday's

☆ A pause to the 'Trump trade': The stock market impact if Joe Biden drops out of election
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"Should Biden leave the race, we would not immediately change our electoral odds (60% Trump vs. 40% Biden/Dem). However, we would note that the policies of a potential Harris administration would largely align with those of President Biden," Mills said. "The primary market moves on election night will come through the equity side as a result of significant regulatory policy divergences. Under a Biden win, it will be status quo in markets. With a Trump win, [stocks] will get some serious legs," Jefferies chief market strategist David Zervos said in a Friday note to clients.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Raymond James Washington, Ed Mills, Stocks, Trump, Harris, Mills, MAGA, TD Cowen, Chris Krueger, David Zervos Organizations: NBC, Trump, Biden, Federal, Democratic, Traders, Republican, Democratic Party, GOP, Senate, Jefferies

☆ The Trump trade: how a red wave could impact stocks, bonds, and commodities
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Read previewAs we near the November elections, investors are increasingly focused on what a Donald Trump win would mean for global markets and economies. The charts below show how stock sectors moved in the 24 hours after the debate and how a Trump administration might impact sectors with varying regulatory burdens. If Trump wins, investors will need to cut through the noise and at least understand how he might impact different parts of the economy. Where monetary policy is concerned, leading economist Christophe Barraud believes a Trump administration could pressure the Federal Reserve to be very accommodative on rates, in other words, steeper or sooner cuts. It expects a Trump Administration to allow LNG export permits after the Biden Administration attempted to halt them.

Persons: —, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Joe Biden, Trump, Solita, Samantha Lamas, Goldman, Goldman's Jan Hatzius, Christophe Barraud, Bloomberg Businessweek Trump, Morgan Stanely, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service, Trump, Business, Trump Media, Technology, UBS, Americas Global Wealth Management, Morningstar, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Businessweek, Korea, Asia Pacific's, Republican, Trump Administration, Biden Locations: Predictit, Mexico, Canada, China, Japan, Germany, Asia, Goldman Sachs, Washington

☆ Goldman says this investment is seen as a potential Trump trade and it's jumping Monday
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Russell 2000 gained 6% last week, its best week of the year, and looks poised to rally further on Monday. A cool consumer price index report last week was seen as a major catalyst for small caps, as it suggested interest rates could go lower. "Many investors view small caps as a potential 'Trump trade,' but the path for small cap outperformance is a narrow one," the note said. Kostin said that small caps outperformed after Trump's 2016 election, but that was when interest rates were much lower. The Goldman note was published before the attempted assassination of Trump on Saturday.

Persons: Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Russell, David Kostin, Joe Biden, PredictIt, Kostin, Trump, Goldman Organizations: Republican, Trump

☆ Jeremy Siegel says markets are 'looking forward' to a second Trump boost
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wharton School finance professor Jeremy Siegel said markets are already anticipating a second Trump bump after the attempted assassination of the former president on Saturday raised the odds he will win the November election. He's more free market, he's antiregulatory, for growth," Siegel told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday. Will there be a second time where those entrepreneurial spirits could rise and boost the stock market?" Siegel made his comments after the assassination on Trump raised the likelihood the Republican will win the presidency for a second time. "They're not thrilled about the tariffs," Siegel said of Wall Street.

Persons: Jeremy Siegel, Trump, Donald, he's, Siegel, CNBC's, Stocks, Trump's, They're Organizations: Wharton School, Trump, Republican, U.S, Wall Locations: China

☆ Stocks, dollar and crypto jump after Trump assassination attempt
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —US markets rose Monday as investors processed the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump over the weekend. The Dow rose 169 points, or 0.4%, paring its gains after hitting a fresh all-time high earlier in the session. The Republican Party’s campaign platform promises to “end Democrats’ unlawful and un-American crypto crackdown.”Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group, the former president’s social media company, popped 35.6%. A Trump win in November likely means the preservation or expansion of tax cuts and increased tariffs. While economic growth sounds positive for the US, some investors worry that it could reaccelerate inflation.

Persons: Donald Trump, Bettors, Joe Biden, Morgan Stanley, “, Trump, ”, Mark Malek Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow, Nasdaq, Trump, Republican Party’s, Trump Media & Technology Group, CNN, Federal Reserve, Siebert Financial Locations: New York

☆ Trump's increasing election odds after debate already affecting financial markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Financial markets are slowly starting to absorb the possibility that what was once a toss-up presidential election campaign has taken a notable turn. That has put investors in a quandary of how to handicap what a Trump presidency would look like from an economic and market standpoint. .SPX mountain 2024-06-28 S & P 500 performance since the debate However, the bond market has had a bit more of a reaction. The first Trump presidency and some of his campaign rhetoric nevertheless has led to guesswork about what could be ahead. "This particularly favors financials and there will be an expectation of more M & A approval in a Trump presidency.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, specter, Biden, Trump, Mark Malek, Siebert AdvisorNXT, Handicapping, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Ed Mills, Raymond James, Kamala Harris, Harris, Chris Krueger, TD Cowen, Krueger, ABC's George Stephanopoulos, —, Sarah Min Organizations: Republican, Trump, Treasury, Bank of, White, Reading, New York Times, Biden, Democrat Locations: Washington

☆ Vice President Kamala Harris' past donors privately strategize in case Biden drops out
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-03 | by ( Brian Schwartz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris gives the commencement address at the commencement ceremony for graduates of the U.S. Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs, Colorado, U.S., May 30, 2024. There's also discussion among Harris confidants about the need to begin scheduling meetings for the vice president with some of the biggest donors in the Democratic Party if Biden drops out, these people explained. A White House spokeswoman for Harris and Biden campaign representatives did not return requests for comment. "To be clear, Vice President Harris is a badass. PredicIt, which allows people to make bets on political events, now puts the vice president in a close second to Biden.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Harris, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Biden, Joe Biden, There's, Harris confidants, Donald Trump's, Bill Barr, Jeff Sessions, Brett Kavanaugh, Trump's, Kamala, Trump, Dmitri Mehlhorn, Reid Hoffman, Mark Kelly, Andy Beshear, Roy Cooper, Josh Shapiro, Andrew Bates, Susan Lowenberg's, there's, Lloyd Doggett, Nancy Pelosi, Jim Clyburn, Pelosi, PredicIt, PredictIt, Gavin Newsom Organizations: U.S . Air Force Academy, Commission, Democratic National Convention, Biden, Democratic, White, Democratic Party, Black, Ukraine, Trump, CNBC, New York Times, CNN, NBC News, San Francisco, Former, MSNBC, California Gov Locations: Colorado Springs , Colorado, U.S, Chicago, Germany, Iowa, California, San Francisco, Texas

☆ How to Invest in This Fraught Election Year
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-29 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

The first debate is over, and President Biden’s faltering performance prompted much hand-wringing among Democrats. How likely is it that former President Donald J. Trump will win the November election? Fundamentally, the markets don’t care who wins. Stocks rose early Friday after a favorable inflation report only to give up a little ground later, while the odds of another Democrat replacing Mr. Biden jumped on PredictIt, an election prediction market. Momentous as this election may be, stocks did well under President Trump and they are doing well under President Biden — not necessarily because of any of their policies.

Persons: Biden’s, Donald J, Trump, Stocks, Biden, Biden —

☆ PredictIt CEO talks political betting ahead of 2024 election
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPredictIt CEO talks political betting ahead of 2024 electionHosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC.

Persons: Brian Sullivan, “ Organizations: CNBC

☆ Trump or Biden? The Stock Market Doesn’t Care.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The markets assume that former President Donald J. Trump has an even chance of winning the November election. After trailing for months, President Biden has moved slightly ahead of Mr. Trump in the betting on Predictit, the longest-running commercial prediction market in the United States. On Betfair, a robust British prediction market that is officially closed to U.S. residents, Mr. Biden has moved within one percentage point of Mr. Trump. Polymarket, an offshore market that accepts only cryptocurrency, shows Mr. Trump slightly ahead. “The prediction markets right now are telling us that the presidential election is basically a tossup,” said Eric Zitzewitz, a Dartmouth economist.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Biden, ”, Eric Zitzewitz, “ Organizations: Dartmouth Locations: United States

(That’s despite Trump being nearly as unpopular and fighting multiple legal battles; he is taking the stand on Monday in one of them. And, on PredictIt, which is watched by political experts, Biden holds a six-point lead on Trump.) Just 2 percent of voters said the economy was excellent, the poll found. Worryingly for Biden, that discontent is being reflected in demographics crucial to his re-election: 48 percent of Black voters in the Times/Siena poll rated the economy as poor, as did 59 percent of voters under 30. Zero respondents in that age group in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin rated the economy as excellent.

Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Worryingly Organizations: Trump, White, Biden, Times Locations: Siena, PredictIt, Arizona , Nevada, Wisconsin

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