Observers often disagree at the time whether the economy is already in recession, and sometimes afterwards whether a recession has occurred or just a “soft patch” in an otherwise uninterrupted business cycle expansion. But the same surveys show the much larger service sector still reporting marginal growth, keeping the economy as a whole out of recession so far. Chartbook: U.S. economic indicatorsThe Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) service sector index stood at 51.9 in April (with more businesses reporting expanding activity than contraction) compared with a manufacturing sector index of just 47.1. In April, the ISM services index was in only the 15th percentile for all months since 1997 compared with the manufacturing index in only the 9th percentile. If the manufacturing sector has already fallen into recession, the services sector is only just avoiding it at the moment.

---