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☆ The election is over, but bettors are still wagering on these 8 political predictions
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-16 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

AdvertisementPrediction markets made a splash during 2024 Presidential election. Billions of dollars were bet on the presidential election outcome via prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket this year. Here are some political bets to watch on Kalshi and Polymarket now that the presidential election is over. Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty ImagesCurrent odds: Yes (32¢), No (69¢)Betting volume: $285,843Trump ends Gaza war by first 100 days? Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty ImagesCurrent odds: Yes (47¢), No (54¢)Betting volume: $267,997

Persons: Kalshi, Mike Tyson, Jake Paul, Donald Trump's, Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear, JD Vance, Anna Moneymaker, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump Jr, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, Robert F, Kennedy, Kevin Dietsch, Elon Musk, Steve Bannon, Jared Kushner, Ben Carson, Ken Paxton, Betsy DeVos, Ivanka Trump, Oleg Petrasiuk, Matt Gaetz, Trump, Tom Williams, DOUG MILLS, Karoline Leavitt, Scott Jennings, Tucker Carlson, Alina Habba, Kari Lake, Peter Doocy, Johnnie Izquierdo, Mostafa Bassim Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Libertarian National Convention, RFK Jr, Trump, 24th Mechanised Brigade, AP, United, Trump's, Getty, George Washington University in, George Washington University in Washington DC Locations: Trump's, Ukraine, Florida, Gaza, George Washington University in Washington, Anadolu

☆ Musk and Ramaswamy's ideas for DOGE and Mike Tyson and Jake Paul to fight: Morning Rundown
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-15 | by ( Elizabeth Robinson | Elizabeth Robinson Is A Newsletter Editor For Nbc News | Based In Los Angeles. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +8 min

And Mike Tyson and Jake Paul will face off in a boxing match. The ‘Department of Government Efficiency’ won’t be an actual ‘department’ — or be inside the governmentElon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy. The two were tapped to lead the “Department of Government Efficiency” (or “DOGE,” a play on a cryptocurrency Musk has promoted). But DOGE isn’t a “department” like the Department of Education or the Department of Homeland Security. Trump said DOGE will “provide advice and guidance from outside of Government,” and Musk and Ramaswamy’s work will be completed by July 4, 2026.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, Laken, Mike Tyson, Jake Paul, ”, isn’t, Trump, Ramaswamy, Musk, Max Stier, Alex Jones ’, Alex Jones —, Sandy Hook, Jones, Alex Jones, Laken Riley Laken Riley, Laken Riley, Jose Antonio Ibarra, Ibarra, Riley, Jeff Clark, Clark, Tyson, Paul, Shayne Copeland, Rudy Giuliani, — Josh Feldman, Elizabeth Robinson Organizations: ‘ Department, Government, AFP, Getty, “ Department, Department of Education, Department of Homeland Security, FBI, Education Department, Trump, Partnership for Public Service, “, NBC, Prosecutors, University of Georgia, University Police, Netflix, WHO, CDC, Staff Locations: Government, Athens, Venezuelan, Georgia’s Fulton County, Iran, Solomon Islands

☆ How Democrats can still flex power in Trump's Washington: From the Politics Desk
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( The Politics Desk | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +11 min

In today’s edition, senior national political reporter Sahil Kapur examines the way Democrats can still exert some power in Donald Trump's Washington. How Democrats can still flex power in Trump’s WashingtonBy Sahil KapurRepublicans have won full control of Washington, but Democrats will retain two key levers of power to shape legislative outcomes in Donald Trump’s second term. That margin is slimming further as Trump plucks House members for administration jobs. The last two years showed how chaotic and dysfunctional this GOP-controlled House can be, even when the stakes are low. The Ethics Committee has jurisdiction over only sitting House members.

Persons: Sahil Kapur, Donald, Donald Trump's Washington, Matt Gaetz's, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Donald Trump’s, Robert Garcia, “, Sen, John Thune, ”, Chris Van Hollen, Van Hollen, Patty Murray, Richard Hudson, Trump, Donald Trump, it’s, it’ll, Tony Gonzales, Matt Gaetz, Ryan Nobles, Julie Tsirkin, Frank Thorp V, Kate Santaliz, Gaetz, Justice Department —, they’ll, Joni Ernst, John Curtis, → Trump, Berkeley Lovelace Jr, Dasha Burns Trump, Kennedy, Bill Cassidy, Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Hegseth, Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy’s, 🗞️, Tim, lea Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Republicans, Health, Human Services Department, Sahil Kapur Republicans, Trump plucks, ”, Republican, Senate, GOP, House Republican, Justice Department, NBC News, Committee, Punchbowl News, RFK, Human Services, Department of Health, Food and Drug Administration, Education, Labor, Pensions, “ RFK, Trump, Elon, of Government, Cabinet Locations: Donald Trump's, Trump’s Washington, Washington, “, Texas, Florida, Congress, Iowa, Utah, Elon, usk

NEW YORK CITY — The FBI seized a cellphone and other electronic devices of betting site Polymarket’s CEO Shayne Coplan in a raid on his New York City apartment early Wednesday, according to a source familiar with the matter. The search comes shortly after the company’s markets wagered correctly and controversially in Donald Trump’s favor in bets for who would win the presidential election, despite opinion polls showing a tight race. The source said it’s not clear if Coplan or Polymarket are targets of an investigation. Polymarket, which Coplan founded in 2020, has recently been the subject of intense debate and scrutiny over its creation of election betting markets. The company brought in more than $3.6 billion from bets placed on the presidential election, including $1.5 billion on Trump and $1 billion on Vice President Kamala Harris, according to an NBC News analysis.

Persons: Shayne Coplan, Donald Trump’s, Coplan, “, Kamala Harris, Polymarket, Biden, ” Coplan, ” Shayne Coplan, Matthew Reeves, ” Nicholas Biase Organizations: FBI, New, Trump, NBC, Futures Trading Commission, NBC News, Polymarket, U.S Attorney’s Office, of Locations: New York City, cryptocurrency, Polymarket, Chicago, Southern, of New York

☆ Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan attacks Biden and Harris after FBI raid
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Lloyd Lee | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The FBI raided Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan's home on Wednesday, a company spokesperson said. A company spokesperson told Business Insider the raid took place at Shayne Coplan's Manhattan home Wednesday morning, without elaborating. Related Video Why Sam Bankman-Fried is facing up to 110 years in prisonSoon after the raid, Coplan, 26, posted on X: "New phone, who dis?" The Polymarket spokesperson said the raid was an act of "political retribution" by the Biden administration against a "fully transparent prediction market." AdvertisementA Biden administration spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

Persons: Shayne Coplan's, Polymarket, —, Donald Trump's, Sam Bankman, Chainalysis, Coplan, CNBC's, Peter Thiel's, Vitalik Buterin, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Elon, Trump, Biden Organizations: FBI, Bloomberg, Service, Polymarket, Shayne Coplan's Manhattan, Department of Justice, Futures Trading Commission, Traders, Trump, Fund, Apple Locations: Coplan, France, American

☆ Polymarket and Kalshi Predicted Trump's Win. Now Comes the Hard Part.
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( Amanda Hoover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Days before the election, Polymarket odds showed Trump had a 60% chance of winning. The electorate took notice: Kalshi and Polymarket soared to the top of Apple's App Store on Tuesday evening. Advertisement"Last night, Kalshi showed how prediction markets can decisively outperform polls and traditional media," Kalshi posted on X. And can the prediction markets ride their momentum now that the election's over? Prediction markets are "going to attract people who want to influence public perception," Broughel says.

Persons: Nate Silver, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Polymarket, Trump, Kalshi, Shayne Coplan, Coplan, Elon Musk, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, Robinhood, There's, Xavier Sottile, Bettors, Sottile, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, he'll, John F, Kennedy, Koleman Strumpf, Strumpf, Broughel, James Broughel, Israel —, — Polymarket, who've Organizations: Trump, CNBC, MIT, Victoria University, Wake Forest University, RFK Jr, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Wall Street Journal, Twitter, New York Times Locations: New Zealand, Kalshi, Ukraine, Iran

☆ Billions were bet on election odds using online markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-09 | by ( Bruna Horvath | Bruna Horvath Is An Intern On Nbc News' Tech Team. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +3 min

Election betting platforms brought in billions of dollars as users around the world wagered on who would win Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election, according to an NBC News analysis of betting platforms. Michigan and Georgia followed close behind, and the rest of the swing states were all in the top 15 states with the highest trading volume. On both Polymarket and Kalshi, bets on swing states alone made up around half of the total trading volume on state outcomes. One Polymarket bettor, who identified himself as “Théo” in an interview with The Washington Post, had bet over $28 million on Trump winning the presidential election using multiple betting accounts. “Théo” had put money down on all the swing states, according to Polymarket’s analytics.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Eric Zitzewitz, “ There’s, Will, ” Zitzewitz, bettor, “, Théo ”, Polymarket, Shayne Coplan, “ Théo, Zitzewitz Organizations: U.S, NBC, Dartmouth University, Republicans, Alabama, Democrats, California, Washington Post, Trump, Futures Trading Commission, Bloomberg Locations: Pennsylvania, Kalshi . Michigan, Georgia, U.S, America

☆ Betting markets nailed Trump's decisive win — and it's a good reminder they can be more accurate than polls
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-09 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Prediction markets swung in favor of Trump in the weeks before his victory, as polls showed a virtual tie. Proponents point to a number of factors that make betting markets more accurate. That was still hours before major news outlets called the electionPrediction site founders and researchers have long argued that betting markets are more accurate than traditional polling. I think this is the dawn of a new era for prediction markets, and prediction markets are here to stay," Mansour said. If they don't improve, the betting markets could replace them entirely, he predicted.

Persons: —, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Trump, They've, Tarek Mansour, Mansour, Harry Crane, Northwestern University's Thomas Miller, Miller, Biden, Harris, Crane, Davide Accomazzo Organizations: Trump, Service, Rutgers University, BI, Northwestern, Pepperdine Graziadio Business

☆ How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The basic theory behind prediction markets is that a lot of people with money on the line can better predict an outcome than any one expert. “Financial markets are generally pretty efficient, and the evidence suggests that the same is true of prediction markets,” Eric Zitzewitz, an economics professor at Dartmouth, tells me. The shares trade between $0 and $1, and once the event is resolved, shares tied to the correct outcome pay out a dollar. If you bought Trump shares on Monday, when they were 58 cents, you can expect to make 42 cents on the dollar. Later that fall, the popular betting market PredictIt gave Hillary Clinton an 82% chance of beating Donald Trump.

Persons: CNN Business ’, pollsters, Donald Trump’s, Trump, Kamala Harris, PredictIt, Eric Zitzewitz, “, aren’t, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, You’re, Shayne Coplan, Harris, Coplan, ” Zitzewitz, ”, “ Brexit, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Clinton, Nate Silvers, Ann Selzers, FiveThirtyEight Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wednesday, “, Dartmouth, Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, Trump, Bloomberg, CNBC, European Union Locations: New York, America, United Kingdom

☆ Why the election felt like the 2021 meme stock rally — but way bigger
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The US election showed shades of the meme stock mania of early 2021. Ron DeSantis' Presidential Announcement with Elon MuskSimilarly, in February 2021, Cuban thanked members of Reddit's WallStreetBets forum for "changing the game" and "taking on Wall Street." Wall Street traders watched the swings in election betting markets to assess the state of the presidential race and inform their investments, Malek added. Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social which counts the president-elect as its majority shareholder, unites several of these ideas. AdvertisementThere are clear parallels between the meme stock mania of early 2021 and the social-media chatter and betting-platform activity going into the election.

Persons: Elon Musk, Mark Cuban, —, Musk, Trump, Ron DeSantis, Cuban, Reddit's, dogecoin, Kamala Harris, It's, Neil Wilson, Keith, Gill, Young, Joe Rogan, Mark Malek, Siebert, Malek, Naeem Aslam, Tesla, Dan Coatsworth, AJ Bell Organizations: Service, GameStop, Florida Gov, Elon, Democratic, Trump, WSB, Wall Street, titans, Wall, Zaye, Markets, Trump Media & Technology Group, Truth, White Locations: America, Florida, Polymarket, WallStreetBets, . Washington

☆ The market is already indicating the early winners and losers from Trump's win
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . A pillar of President-elect Donald Trump's campaign was the economy and the work he would do to "fix it." Tesla shareholders: The EV giant took off with news of Trump's win, finishing the day up almost 15%. Bond yields are already soaring, indicating the market expects the cost of borrowing to keep rising. Investors in Europe: European growth stands to take a hit from Trump's proposed tariffs, according to Goldman Sachs.

Persons: —, Donald Trump's, Elon Musk's, Trump, that's, Goldman Sachs, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Ella Hopkins, Grace Lett, Amanda Yen, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Service, White, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, GOP, Tesla, Trump, bitcoin, Treasury, Investors Locations: Europe, New York, London, Chicago

☆ Polymarket plans U.S. return after signaling Trump election win, founder says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Jacqueline Corba | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Online election betting platform Polymarket plans to bring its prediction markets back to customers in the United States, on the heels of accurately forecasting the electoral win of President-elect Donald Trump. "I want to give a lot of credit to the people who fought the battle to go and legalize political prediction markets in America," Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan told Andrew Ross Sorkin on "Squawk Box," in his first live TV interview Thursday. Polymarket's betting platforms are currently only available to customers outside of the United States. In 2022, it halted U.S. operations and paid a $1.4 million penalty to settle charges with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that it had failed to register with the commission. In October, the U.S. Appeals Court for the District of Columbia Circuit lifted a freeze on competitor Kalshi's election contracts that was put on by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.

Persons: Donald Trump, Shayne Coplan, Andrew Ross Sorkin, Patricia Millett, Kalshi, Robinhood, Thomas Peterffy Organizations: Futures Trading Commission, Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit, Commodities Futures Trading Commission, Interactive Locations: United States, America, U.S

☆ The Polymarket 'whale' actually made $85 million, far more than originally thought
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Polymarket trader who bet big on a Donald Trump win made much more than previously thought. New research from Chainalysis estimates a total profit of over $85 million, up from $48 million. AdvertisementA Polymarket trader who bet tens of millions on Donald Trump's presidential win appears to have raked in a much larger profit than previously known. A new estimate now places that figure at more than $85 million, well above the earlier tally of $48 million, according to research from the blockchain-analysis firm Chainalysis. Collectively, Polymarket traders bet around $3.7 billion in volume over who would win the US presidency.

Persons: Donald Trump, —, Donald Trump's, Théo Organizations: Service, Trump, Wall

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Polymarket CEO Shayne CoplanPolymarket CEO Shayne Coplan joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the prediction market, its impact on the 2024 election, influence of the 'Trump whale', the role of prediction market vs. traditional polls, and more.

Persons: Shayne Coplan

☆ French regulators are looking into Polymarket after a massive surge in US election betting
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

France's gambling regulator said it's looking into Polymarket to determine compliance with domestic laws. That comes after one "whale" who bet $30 million on a Trump win was revealed to be a French national. "We are aware of this site and are currently examining its operation and compliance with French gambling legislation," a spokesperson for the regulator told Bloomberg. A report from the crypto news site The Big Whale said the ANJ is preparing to ban the site for French users. AdvertisementPolymarket garnered nearly $3.7 billion in wagers on the election before the result was called, Polymarket data shows.

Persons: —, Donald Trump, it's, Polymarket, Whale, Kamala Harris Organizations: Trump, Service, des Jeux, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal Locations: French, France, New York

☆ Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan: We were the first destination to project Trump's election victory
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPolymarket CEO Shayne Coplan: We were the first destination to project Trump's election victoryPolymarket CEO Shayne Coplan joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the prediction market, its impact on the 2024 election, influence of the 'Trump whale', the role of prediction market vs. traditional polls, and more.

Persons: Shayne Coplan

☆ The Polymarket 'whale' banked $48 million in profits on Trump's election win
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A French trader profited $48 million betting on Trump's election win via Polymarket. The trader, known as Théo, wagered heavily on Trump winning the Electoral College and the popular vote. AdvertisementThe Polymarket "whale" who bet about $30 million on a Donald Trump election win saw about $48 million in profits, according to data from the crypto-based betting platform. As of Wednesday morning, the Theo4 Polymarket account is sitting on about $22 million in profits. Related VideoMeanwhile, the three other accounts controlled by the whale — Fredi9999, PrincessCaro, and Michie — have a combined $26 million in profits.

Persons: wagered, —, Donald Trump, Michie —, Trump, Théo Organizations: Polymarket, Trump, Electoral College, Service, Wall Street Journal Locations: France

☆ The surge in election betting has catapulted Kalshi and Polymarket to the top of Apple's App Store
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Kalshi and Polymarket catapulted to the most downloaded free apps on the Apple App Store on Tuesday. Kalshi and Polymarket show Trump favored to win the Electoral College, with Harris expected to win the popular vote. AdvertisementKalshi and Polymarket zoomed to the top of the Apple App Store on Tuesday amid a surge in election betting in the waning days of the 2024 US presidential campaign. Kalshi's ascent in the Apple App Store rankings represented a key goal being reached for the company's CEO, Tarek Mansour. 1 for the entire App Store by Election Day, so the demand curve truly is exponential," Mansour told CNBC last month.

Persons: Kalshi, Trump, Harris, —, Tarek Mansour, we're gunning, Mansour, Polymarket, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: Apple, Electoral, Service, CNBC, Electoral College Locations: Polymarket

The social media ads have flooded platforms including Facebook, Instagram and X. One advertisement — viewed more than 900,000 times on Facebook and Instagram since Oct. 28 — depicts Trump winning in the Polymarket odds, according to the Meta Ad Library. A separate sponsored campaign from the right-wing social media personality Shaneyy Richh included nine advertisements promoting Polymarket forecasts. Based on user bets, Polymarket says Trump’s odds of winning are roughly 65.5% and Harris’s odds of winning are 34.5% as of Oct. 31. The company has also used social media to promote election betting, spending over $140,000 on Meta ads, according to the company's ad library.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Kamala Harris, isn’t, Shayne Coplan, Trump, Harris, Shaneyy Richh, pollsters, ”, Elon, Polymarket, “ Trump, ” Claudio Vallejo, They’re, “, ” Polymarket, Coplan, we’ve, I’ve, ” Trump, “ Polymarket, that’s, Musk, ” John Fortier, “ It’s, you’re, Fortier, “ I’m Organizations: ”, Facebook, Trump, Meta Ad, “, Polymarket, United, Commodity, U.S, NBC, American Enterprise Institute Locations: California , New York, Texas, United States, U.S, Michigan

☆ The Polymarket 'whale' betting on a Trump win is down $3 million after Harris' odds jumped over the weekend
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Polymarket "whale" betting on a Trump win had about $3 million in unrealized losses Monday morning. The person controls a significant portion of contracts tied to a Trump win, with about $30 million wagered. AdvertisementThe "whale" placing big bets on Polymarket for Doland Trump to win the presidential election is in the red after betting odds shifted toward Kamala Harris' over the weekend. The Polymarket whale had unrealized gains of about $10 million toward the end of October before Trump's betting odds began to sink. According to data from Polymarket, Théo controls about 25% of the contracts for Trump to win the Electoral College and more than 40% of the contracts for Trump to win the popular vote.

Persons: bettor, —, Doland Trump, Kamala Harris, Théo, Harris, he'd, Trump Organizations: Trump, Service, Business, Iowa, Wall Street, Electoral College Locations: Polymarket, France

☆ Election betting odds tighten as polls show Harris has momentum
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-03 | by ( Mikhaila Friel | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A new poll showed Kamala Harris had a surprise 3-point lead over Trump in Iowa. A Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll by Selzer & Co. published on Saturday showed Harris with a three-point lead in the state. On Kalshi, the popular US-based prediction platform, Harris' odds of winning the election have soared from 35% on October 29 to 51% at the time of writing. The Iowa poll surveyed 808 likely voters between October 28 and October 31, with a 3.4-point margin of error. The results marked a sharp swing from September when the same poll showed Trump ahead by four points.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Kalshi, —, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, Polymarket Organizations: Trump, Iowa, Service, Des Moines Register, Selzer Locations: Iowa

☆ Twitter and TikTok Users' Election Projections Are Completely Warped.
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-02 | by ( Amanda Hoover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

And earlier this year, the company made further moves to de-emphasize political content on Instagram, Facebook, and Threads. Meanwhile, half of the 18- to 29-year-olds surveyed by the Pew Research Center saying they watch political content on TikTok. No one on social media has the answer to what will happen in Tuesday's election. Anxiously reposting or liking election content may feel like the only thing we can do as the clock ticks down. For now, the best way to alleviate that anxiety might be to get off social media until Tuesday passes.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump's, Trump, MAGA, Trump's, Harris, Joe Biden, Trump megadonor Elon Musk, It's, Musk, Ioana Literat, Megan Smith, ProPublica, Tracy Clayton, Sol Messing, Messing, Instagram, Michelle Obama, we've, it's, that's Organizations: Trump, Trump megadonor, Republican, Pew Research Center, Columbia University's Teachers College, Social Media, Facebook, Meta, Pew Research, New York University's Center for Social Media, Politics, Twitter, Musk's America PAC Locations: Florida, Texas, California, Philadelphia, . New Hampshire, Virginia, Pennsylvania, United States, Washington, New, Ohio

Election bets were approved legally just weeks ago, as the 2024 race headed into its home sprint. The ongoing legal wrangling could still lead to a shutdown of U.S. election betting markets, but not until after the 2024 vote. The CFTC permits only U.S. residents to use the newly opened election betting markets, meaning many bettors on the platforms are also potential voters. Nonetheless, Adam Cochran, founder of venture capital fund Cinneamhain Ventures, says he worries about how voters perceive election betting odds. Mansour acknowledged it’s a “fair concern” that the general public might mistakenly see betting odds as the size of a candidate’s lead.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, ” Robinhood, Rostin Behnam, Kalshi, John Aristotle Phillips, Phillips, ”, multibillionaire Trump, Elon Musk, “, ” Harris, Polymarket, bettors, Trump, Harris, Musk, Tarek Mansour, ” Mansour, Adam Cochran, ” Cochran, Mansour, it’s, There’s Organizations: Interactive, Futures Trading Commission, Republican, Democratic, Overseas, Victoria University of Wellington, NBC, Trump, Street Journal, Cinneamhain Ventures Locations: U.S, New Zealand, America

☆ Betting on the election is the hottest new trend. But can prediction markets keep the momentum going?
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The big storyPresidential betsChris duMond; Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images; Jenny Chang-Rodriguez/BIWe're less than a week from election day, but one group can already claim victory: betting markets. Kalshi's legal victory in October over the CFTC to offer election betting paved the way for the trend. iStock; Rebecca Zisser/BIThe betting market's biggest tests might come after the election. Betting markets have Trump as a heavy favorite, whereas traditional polls indicate a tight race. AdvertisementShould Trump win in a landslide, it could strengthen the case for using betting markets as a key tool for election analysis.

Persons: —, Chris duMond, Chip Somodevilla, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Matthew Fox, Donald Trump, Polymarket, iStock, Rebecca Zisser, Nate Silver, Tesla, Zuckerberg, Citadel's, Justin Lubell, Lubell, Steve Schwarzman, Ken Griffin, Trump, Tyler Le, Harris, Sundar Pichai, Elon Musk, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Service, Apple, CFTC, Trump, TikTok, Meta Connect, Meta, Bank of America, Blackstone, Republican, Amazon, AWS, Five Apple Intelligence, Google, The Washington Post, Street, Microsoft, Starbucks Locations: French, New York, London

☆ Polymarket's pro-Trump election predictions aren't so surprising when you look at the rest of the site
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Katie Notopoulos | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The betting site Polymarket has emerged as a hot topic in the 2024 presidential race. Wagers in its pop culture section show the bro-y vibe of the site: Zyn, Andrew Tate, and Hawk Tuah. Let's look at some of the wagers:Will Trump say "skibidi" before the election? Will Donald Trump say "mog" in 2024? AdvertisementFor the record, I think the odds that Trump will say "skibidi" before the election are way too low.

Persons: Trump, Andrew Tate, Hawk, —, Will Trump, Will Kamala Harris, Joe Rogan's, Will Donald Trump, Roaring Kitty, Logan Paul, Max Read, Joe Rogan, Gen Z'ers, MAGA, Theo Von, Adin Ross, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, Shayne Coplan, There's, Polymarket, haven't, I'm, who's, John Herrman, McDonald's Organizations: Service, Trump, New, New York Magazine, Harris, Dodgers, Yankees Locations: MrBeast

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